Transcripts For BBCNEWS BBC Election 2019 20240713

The negotiators of the tory party, but they think and have seen and a very good evening. For the fourth time in the space believe that the labour party is a of five years, the future of the United Kingdom is uncertain, remain party. The fact of the matter is that they are not going to and this time, with politics in deadlock and brexit unresolved, tolerate that. They believe that in the stakes are higher than ever. Now, in a few moments, 2016, when they had their vote in polling stations across the United Kingdom will close, the voting will be over, the Eu Referendum, they believe that and we will be able to reveal the result of our exit poll, they should have been listened to, that is our first hint of the possible result. And they think that the labour party have totally reneged on the result will Boris Johnson be back in number 10 . Of that. Thats what this is about. WillJeremy Corbyn beat him to it . Or will the outcome be less this was a brexit election. This is than clear when it comes tojeremy vines winning line . A rerun of 2016. When your well, here we are again. Two years ago in our virtual colleagues, some of them, are downing street, i showed calling for mr corbyn to step down almost immediately, what would you you the conservatives falling short, say to them . Well, what i would say and labour improving but not by nearly enough. Is, to everyone, letsjust say to them . Well, what i would say is, to everyone, lets just wait and and the result was two years see what the results actually are by of chaos in parliament. The question tonight is whether any 12pm tomorrow afternoon. That will party can get 326 seats or more say what the situation is. What can and send their leader through that door with a majority. I say, huw, the Party Leaders voted say what the situation is. What can isay, huw, in say what the situation is. What can i say, huw, in 2017 the labour party earlier today, wrapped up against the elements in the first leader wasjeremy i say, huw, in 2017 the Labour Party Leader was Jeremy Corbyn. I say, huw, in 2017 the Labour Party Leader wasJeremy Corbyn. We had a radical manifesto. 2019, the labour december election since 1923, less than a fortnight before christmas. Party had a radical manifesto and Jeremy Corbyn was the leader of the they know that these ballot boxes hold the key to their futures labour party as well. The big and my colleague Naga Munchetty is watching the hard fought race difference is that in 2019 we to declare the nights first result. Promised a second referendum, and well, all eyes are on the north east people are suggesting quite rightly, today to see who will declare first. Why should there be a second last time it was newcastle referendum when they had a but we have found out that their neighbours in blyth valley have been referendum when they had a referendum in 2016 . And i think practising in secret. Are you ready . Thats the issue. Its notjeremy yes they think they can get the counting corbyn, its brexit, and ignoring done in under 44 minutes. Democracy. Well, its the policy. We will see if they pull it off. Youve just described the policy there that the party was putting high above the newsroom, forward , there that the party was putting forward, which was a second our Specialist Team will be referendum. Having negotiated a new gathering the results as they come in and our election supremo, deal, that was mr corbyns position. Professor sirjohn curtice, so clearly you are very critical of ready to analyse those results the strategy that he adopted. And to update the early predictions. So clearly you are very critical of the strategy that he adoptedm there are 650 mps to be elected every one of those outcomes is. Either way, huw, are vital to the final result. The strategy that he adoptedm is. Eitherway, huw, iam critical of it, and i think you very much and my colleague Reeta Chakrabarti is at the big screen aware that i have been explaining to with more details. Collea g u es aware that i have been explaining to colleagues of mine for more than 18 this has been such a hard election to predict, months, nearly two years, that we with the shadow of brexit hovering over the usual tribal loyalties. Shouldnt have went down that path. But we are about to find out but we are a democratic party, and what the real numbers are and im its notJeremy Corbyns decision. Here at the giant touch screen which has been loaded with data this was a decision that was agreed from thousands of people as they leave polling stations across the country. By conference in 2019. We had an in a few moments time, almighty debate at conference on the i should be able to predict which seats are changing hands. Eu, on different issues, and we came and just outside the studio, in the cold night air, away from that conference, there was my colleague Sophie Raworth with a vast map of the United Kingdom and the changing 13,000 people at the conference, Political Landscape. Lots of delegates discuss this, and yes, this is the uk we formulated our policy within the but not as you know it. Party. We are democratic, and jeremy we have made each constituency exactly the same size so, corbyn accepted the position that one hexagon for one mp, was made at the conference, and and it gives you a much better idea of where the real balance thats the decision that we took of power lies. Into the election. Thank you very this map is laid out in the colours of the 2017 general election. Much for talking to us, and it is shortly, we will start pulling them good have you to join us. It is all up and then relaying them as the results come in to find out 1 55am in the morning. Thank you to the party chair, ian labrie, just what has changed. Narrowly holding onto his seat. His and back here in our studio, majority was greatly reduced. We our inquisitor in chief, andrew neil, will be talking have had a result in from putney in to many of the winners and losers, finding out why the election turned out as it did and where we go from here. South west london. Lets see. Throughout the night, as the results come in, i will be speaking to an array have had a result in from putney in southwest london. Lets see. I, jane cooper, being the returning of politicians and pundits in this studio and across the country, officerfor jane cooper, being the returning asking them what went right, officer for the putney constituency, what went wrong and what happens next. Held in december 2019, do hereby give notice that the number of votes with me all night is the bbcs political editor, laura kuenssberg. She is waiting to give her immediate recorded for each candidate at the election is as follows. Fleur verdict on the exit poll. Anderson, labour party, 22,780. We are seconds away from the result of the exit poll, our first prediction of the potential outcome of this election. More than 20,000 people were asked how they voted today at 144 polling stations across the uk, thank you. Fergal mcentee, green on behalf of the bbc, itv and sky. And as big ben reaches ten oclock, were standing by with the exit poll figures. Party, 1133. Will sweet, the conservative Party Candidate, here they are. Our exit poll is suggesting that there will be a 18,006. Sue wixley, liberal conservative majority, when all the votes are counted after this election of december 2019. The conservatives, on 368 seats, and democrats, 8548. The total number of labour way down on 191. On those figures, we are looking at a conservative majority of 86, if the votes actually tally up with this prediction. And that would be the ballot papers rejected as follows. Biggest conservative majority since Margaret Thatchers third victory voting for more candidates than backin entitled to, 21. There is the Margaret Thatchers third victory back in 1987. Lets look at that labourfigure of 191 for back in 1987. Lets look at that labour figure of 191 for me corbyn result in from putney, justine back in 1987. Lets look at that labourfigure of 191 for me corbyn that would be the worst labour greening standing down as mp, she result in modern times and certainly was with us earlier, and she is the worse than the figure obtained by michael foot back in 1983, a low conservative former mp, former education secretary. Her successor, point for labour. Will sweet, has been defeated, and labour has gained putney, so this is a rare Success Story for labour this evening. And this of course will these are the figures for all the parties with the conservatives on open up the whole debate about 368, a rise of 50 seats in this remain and leave areas, because putney, of course, in an area which was strongly remain back in 2016. Election, as suggested by the exit poll. Labour on 191, suffering as 45 to labour, 36 to the tories. Labour by 4 in putney and the many as 71 losses, that is the conservatives down by 8 . The lib suggestion. The snp on 55 making dems up by 5 , that reflecting again some 20 gains. The lib dems on 13, the result there in 2016, probably. The swing, lets have a look at it. Up some 20 gains. The lib dems on 13, upjust one it isa some 20 gains. The lib dems on 13, up just one seat and plaid cymru the swing, lets have a look at it. It is a swing from conservative to labour. We havent seen that, with three, losing one seat, the happily. Labour. We havent seen that, greens on one, no change, the brexit happily, much. It is 6. 4 . I also party at not winning any seats and wa nt to happily, much. It is 6. 4 . I also want to tell you about angus, the others, most of those in because that resulted in, and this Northern Ireland, making up 19. It is again from the snp. A majority of is an exit poll, we will see how accurate it is, of course, when the results start coming in and we might even get some results within some 45 3795 and a turnout of 68 , 49 of minutes or so. But it is a dramatic the vote to the snp, 40 to the poll and certainly suggests Boris Johnson is on course for a very tories, the snp up 11 percentage solid majority of at least 80 seats, points, the tories down five and possibly 86 put it lets get the 7. 796 points, the tories down five and 7. 7 swing to the snp from the reaction from laura kuenssberg. We conservatives. Just with both of have all just lived those results, a reminder that this reaction from laura kuenssberg. We have alljust lived through some of the most Turbulent Times any of us is not going to be plain sailing for can remember in terms of our the conservatives, both in terms of politics and if these numbers are london, the conservatives might have broadly correct, borisjohnson, just a very tricky night in london, and a year ago was on the backbenches, might have redrawn the map. With some of those remain tending seats in the south east, they might lose these figures he would have clear in quitea in the south east, they might lose backing on the benches behind them in quite a few places, and depending on how much the snp tightened their to ta ke backing on the benches behind them grip, scottish conservatives may be to take us out of the European Union next month, a momentousjuncture for really cut back from that 13 they our country, but it would also mean managed to achieve in 2017. And in another five years of conservative both of those ways, borisjohnson rule with a solid majority behind may well end up with a thumping him, tipping the conservatives in majority, but he might be taking the governing the country for more over a very than a decade. And also seeing majority, but he might be taking over a very divided map, with labour go to scotla nd over a very divided map, with scotland almost all yellow for the than a decade. And also seeing labourgo toa than a decade. And also seeing labour go to a fourth defeat at a general election in a row but this snp, london and perhaps some of our time, if the numbers are even other big cities, in birmingham, in roughly correct, a serious and manchester, in a liveable, very much historic loss. The snp appear to still coloured red. Governing with a have increased their tight hold in real patchwork like that, it may scotla nd have increased their tight hold in scotland but the other parties do not appear to have made much of a well not be straightforward. Not straightforward at all. Laura, breakthrough. But remember, it is thanks. Lets look at some of the early and this is a sample, polling other results that have come in and numbers and we are at the beginning some of the significant ones. Reeta of drawing the picture of who will have the power to make the decisions can bring us right up to date. that do and will change all of our have some really interesting seats to show you, peterbrough in lives. Its a pretty startling set cambridgeshire is a conservative of figures, it is fair to say. At any point in the campaign did you game for the labour party. The sense that the conservatives were on history of the seat has changed hands a few times in the last 20 course for this kind of majority if yea rs, hands a few times in the last 20 years, but tonight paul bristow has this is correct . I think from all of the parties, the overriding sense taken this seat from labours lisa all the way through was that this forbes. She had the seed with a tiny has been an almost impossible election to read. Rather than majority of just over 600 forbes. She had the seed with a tiny majority ofjust over 600 votes. Fixating on particular numbers, they paul bristow becomes the seats fourth mp in three years. This is have all looked at a range. Senior how he did it, with a vote share of conservatives i have talked to today has said they have would hope at 4796 how he did it, with a vote share of 47 as compared to labours 41 . I least to scrape the majority but just want to show you how that has aware it might not be in the bag but changed from last time around. A lwa ys aware it might not be in the bag but always with the possibility that really interesting, the conservative they might make the kinds of inroads share of the vote has gone unchanged, but it is labours drop in leave areas and they could, they by seven Percentage Points that has hoped, create a set of dominoes allowed the conservatives to take where seats might fall in these this seat. One other seat that i kinds of numbers. I think on early wa nt to this seat. One other seat that i suggestions what this shows is that want to show you that has also changed hands tonight and that is although a lot of issues have been wrexham in north wales. This had discussed and matter to our viewers tonight, this has broadly been a been labourfor decades, brexit election. Where the tories have managed to create a hard leave wrexham in north wales. This had been labour for decades, labour since 1935. Well, it has tonight vote and keep it together and the gone conservative, and sarah remain vote has a split across. Atherton is the first female conservative mp in wales ever. She vote and keep it together and the remain vote has a split acrosslj remain vote has a split across. |j suppose the headline apart from the has done it with 45 share of the conservative majority suggested is that right now were looking at the Political Landscape changing vote as compared to labours 39 . Radically. Absolutely, this would be and again, i want to show you the a redrawing of the map with labour way in which the vote share has away down. That is labour behind where they were in the early 80s and changed since 2017, and it is the everybody in the labour party and many of our audience know how long same story is in peterbrough. The conservatives up a little bit, but it took them to build back from that they have been given the seat by the kind of level of support. Also look drop in the labour vote share. Labour down by 10 , and that has at the snp tightening their grip on allowed sarah atherton, as i said, scotland. This may well be, and we to become the first female will say it a lot in the next few conservative mp in wales. Hours, this is an early taste but it may well be that borisjohnson, who discreetly you well, i never thought had been written off so many times, in all this time id see wrexham of such a controversial and divisive figure, we heard that around the country in the last few weeks, might all places turning conservative but have been able to change the thats what this night is about, boundaries in british politics, if parts of wales and across the uk, these results bear out. We have apart from scotland, are looking at several hours to talk about this, gaining some areas which have been thank you for those initial thoughts. Law is with us throughout solidly labour for decades and the night. Lets look at central decades. We have resulted from london outside because this is old Northern Ireland which id like to go to broadcasting house, next to new broadcasting house, next to new broadcasting house, next to new broadcasting house and all night we predicting the figures onto it so those passing can see it and we can show it across the screens across the uk and worldwide. That you have it, the exit poll suggesting labour possibly down to 191 seats, the snp on 55 and we are looking at the lib dems on 13 which would be a very disappointing result if that is true forjo swinson, the party leader. Plaid cymru on three, the suggestion is they will lose one of their seats. And right at the top, the headline figure with the conservatives, according to the poll, forecast to get 368 seats which is a gain of 50 seats on the 2017 performance under theresa may. That would be a dramatic success for borisjohnson that would be a dramatic success for Boris Johnson and this that would be a dramatic success for borisjohnson and this is indeed, if true, a heavy blow forJeremy Corbyn. A Strong Performance if it is right for the snp in scotland as a was saying, and there will be some licking of wins at the lib dems headquarters. Plaid cymru in wales down to three, we think, but we will wait to see what is going on. It seems like a good moment, now we have these figures, and lets wait for some results to come in so that we can measure results against the suggested prediction of the exit poll put it we will talk to sirjohn curtice, the guru in charge of the figures and we will ask him about those later but it seems a good moment to talk tojeremy those later but it seems a good moment to talk to jeremy vine those later but it seems a good moment to talk tojeremy vine and ask him about these figures and what they might produce. It will change they might produce. It will change the house of commons, if the exit poll is correct. To win an overall majority here, you need 326 mp5. Theresa may fell short in 2017 but the exit poll has borisjohnson going straight through the 326, quite a long way past it, with 368 mps, a gain of 50 on theresa may two yea rs mps, a gain of 50 on theresa may two years ago. And the other story which you mentioned and lower talked about is just how badly the labour showing it in the exit poll, of course actual results might change this. 191 seats would be below what michael foot did in 1983 when he at least got above 200. This amazing performance by the snp if that is what it is, the exit poll showing the lib dems is not really moving, plaid cymru down a little put at one from the greens and the others on 19. The key figure and whatll get borisjohnson so much comfort tonight as he looks at this is that the exit poll forecasts a majority of 86. You enter that period in parliament where nobody get anything done. If that is the majority, it is a stunning victory. Thank you, jeremy. You a stunning victory and somebody next to me its smiling rather politely at this point but certainly looking quite happy, priti patel, the home secretary, thank you for joining patel, the home secretary, thank you forjoining us. It is an exit poll but a very big sample and across the uk and it is suggesting a pretty solid majority for Boris Johnson uk and it is suggesting a pretty solid majority for borisjohnson and your team put your initial reaction to that. First of all we should just all recognise it is a projection and not an actual result, and we will see the results coming through and thats the right way forward. But this has been a hard fought general Election Campaign at a colder time of the year, we have been out on the road and had amazing candidates every day taking the message out across the country that we need to break the gridlock that has dominated parliament for the last three years. And to move the country forward and enter the paralysis and get brexit done and do the things we have been speaking about as conservatives in this campaign, we need a functioning conservative majority. If you do have a majority of over 80 there will be no excuse for not breaking the deadlock because you will have the majority you need. Viewers will be wondering what are you going to be doing with this majority straightaway and what can we expect in the coming weeks . Importantly, can we expect in the coming weeks . Importa ntly, as we can we expect in the coming weeks . Importantly, as we have outlined throughout the campaign, the focus has been on brexit. We have had that gridlock in parliament and we want to get it done. You have heard the Prime Minister say it, get it done before christmas, introduced legislation and get that moving in parliament. Then of course speaking about the priorities, nhs, education, law and order, police officers, something busily im working on, points based immigration system absolutely moving the country out of paralysis so we can get back and invest in Public Services and get the country moving and focus on theissues get the country moving and focus on the issues that matter to the british public. Ive heard that on the doorstep in the last few weeks, i have toured the country and so has the Prime Minister and we have been all out with candidates every day, listening to the public which is the most important thing. We want to move the country forward and deliver for them. Queens speech next week . We will not hang around, we have indicated previously that if we get a functioning majority for the conservatives in parliament, we want to move things forward and that means getting brexit done, having the legislation and a queens speech so we can start introduce legislation and built in parliament. So that viewers are clear, you say it would move to get a queens speech and a withdrawal bill before christmas . Absolutely move to get on and get on with the job with a functioning majority which is what we said we would do in the campaign, to deliver on the peoples priorities and the pledges that we have made through the campaign, including in our manifesto. Would you confirm you will bring the brexit bill back before christmas . We have said that getting brexit done is the priority as you have heard many times and the deal is there and good to go. We need to move forward, we are not waiting to end the paralysis. We are keen but lets see what the results bring this evening. It is not guaranteed before christmas . Im saying that if we get a functioning conservative majority we will be in a position to get on and get the job done as we have been saying throughout the campaign. We will talk again put a thank you forjoining us for now, pretty patel, the home secretary. What we are looking for of course is the first real result priti patel. Normally is in the north east, sunderland or newcastle, places counting very quickly. Naga munchetty is keeping an eye on things for us and we might be in for a surprise . This is a surprise for you and who doesnt like a surprise on Election Night . I am in Blyth Sports Centre near newcastle and they are so keen to be the first to declare. How many boxes have we had . About 23 boxes, the first arrived 38 seconds past ten oclock. They get here and are scanned and run through this corridor, loads of sporty volu nteers this corridor, loads of sporty volunteers are trained for the moment. Speed is key and they are brought from all over the blyth valley constituency and rushed through this part and you can hear the shouts when new boxes arrived in the shouts when new boxes arrived in the car park. They are run into the counting centre where the teams are and look at the frenetic activity it is all about to be but its very much about accuracy as well. We all know that the race has been on and we have seen or newcastle do it and sunderland do it and the man behind thatis sunderland do it and the man behind that is a gentleman called Bill Crawford. Blyth valley poached him and he has been masterminding this operation and making sure the lightweight paper is used to come the teams are passing the ballot papers and the buzz here is fantastic. There was another trick to this because everyone is using lightweight paper so the trick is a Computer Programme designed to keep a running tally. You get the result the moment the last vote is counted. They want to beat the record set in sunderland in 2015 which was 44 minutes. Stay tuned, ill be watching to see if they do it. Thank you very much. We are keeping an eye on blyth valley but to be fair, sunderland, the good people there are not giving up on this and we can have a look at some of the images that have come in. Sunderland city council also, as ever, very efficient in their counting and they are hoping to match that record of 43 minutes, and the boxes are coming in at 43 minutes, and the boxes are coming inata 43 minutes, and the boxes are coming in at a pace, look at that they dont want to be beaten by blyth valley. We will see what happens in houghton and Sunderland South which has taken the honours in the past. That is the scene as they bring in the boxes from across the constituency. We are also looking at newcastle because they have also beenin newcastle because they have also been in first place there in the past and the same kind of running and rushing, going through the teams that have been put through their paces. We have newcastle counting as well. Three constituencies really are hoping to be first with that result but blyth valley, as we heard from naga, very excited about the prospect of surprising us all and coming first for the first time. We will see if they do that but we are encouraging them all to be hugely competitive at this point and get us a result within half an hour or so which would be great. As things stand, the exit poll is suggesting at this point that there will be a pretty solid conservative majority, possibly of 80 or more seats for borisjohnson, possibly of 80 or more seats for Boris Johnson, and labour will possibly of 80 or more seats for borisjohnson, and labour will have done exceptionally badly, that is what the poll suggested with 191 seats making more than 70 losses which would be worth than the performance of michael foot in 1983. We can hear from performance of michael foot in 1983. We can hearfrom one of performance of michael foot in 1983. We can hear from one of the performance of michael foot in 1983. We can hearfrom one of the labour key figures, John Mcdonnell. John mcdonnell, shadow chancellor, if this exit poll is anywhere near right, this result is a catastrophe for you, Jeremy Corbyn and the labour party . If it is anywhere near this, anywhere near, youre right, this, anywhere near, youre right, this will be extremely disappointing for the party overall, yes, it will. It has come as a shock to you . M has, yes, ithought it has come as a shock to you . M has, yes, i thought it would be closer, i think most people thought the polls were narrowing. We knew it would be tough because brexit dominated this election, but yes, if it is anywhere near this, it is extremely disappointing, lets be honest about that terrible it is probably more than disappointing, weve had nine years of a conservative government which many people think has been pretty lacklustre, it is a conservative government that you have said is going to sell the nhs to donald trump, and yet, even in these circumstances, if this poll is anywhere near right, youve produced your worst result since 1935 . Yes, if it is anywhere near right, thats right. Why . Well, ithink if it is anywhere near right, thats right. Why . Well, i think brexit has dominated everything, by the looks of it. We thought other issues could cut through and there would be a wider debate. From this evidence is clearly wasnt. But the evidence that i got from a lot of your candidates was that it wasntjust that i got from a lot of your candidates was that it wasnt just a brexit, the question of brexit was playing badly with a lot of your co re playing badly with a lot of your core vote, and that would explain why youve probably in this poll lost so many seats, but it was also Jeremy Corbyn . I thinkJeremy Corbyn, there were issues raised because of the Media Campaign against him, of course there were. But actually as we went through the campaign and we gotJeremy Corbyn on broadcast media in the debates, actually, if you saw, his polling ratings began to rise quite well. So i dont think that was the big issue, the big issue was brexit, and people, it sounds like, people wa nted people, it sounds like, people wanted a decision, and they wanted a. And even those people who may well have supported remain, some of them i think got frustrated and thought, lets just get this out of the way now. I think that is what has hit us hard, and the partys position, when you analyse it, we have had to straddle both those members of hours who supported remain, but we were representing, many of us, leave seats, so that was ourdilemma, many of us, leave seats, so that was our dilemma, understandably. When you look at this exit poll, as i say, if it is anywhere near right, if it is in that sort of area, is it not time for you and Jeremy Corbyn to stand down and make way for another generation . We will see the results in the morning and then decisions will be made, im sure. Lets see the results. But if it is like this, it is over for you and lets see the results. But if it is like this, it is overfor you and mr corbyn . Well, we will make the appropriate decisions. But missed a clinic, he went after two defeats, and every time, he gained seats. You are now, if this poll is correct, losing seats. It must surely be game overfor losing seats. It must surely be game over for you losing seats. It must surely be game overfor you and losing seats. It must surely be game over for you and mr corbyn. Lets see the results themselves, the appropriate decisions we will be made, and they will be made in the best interests of our party. But if you look at this possible result, down to 191 seats, going by history, youve lost the 2024 election as well. No opposition ever gains that the number of seats. I would dispute that, because what has clearly come through in these results i think is that this was the brexit election. We were hoping that a wider range of issues was cut through the debate about i dont think that has been the case. It wasntjust about i dont think that has been the case. It wasnt just that, people were concerned that you and mr corbyn had dragged the labour party to far left, that you were going to spray money around like confetti, most of it borrowed, that it would be a hard left government unlike any we have seen, that was also a factor in the election, a big factor . You say that, i disagree. I actually think when you look at the individual policies that we had put forward , individual policies that we had put forward, look at the poll ratings, they were having overwhelming support, our proposals on the pensions and everything. But youve just lost 71 seats thats why i say i think this election was dominated by the brexit issue. Are you saying that despite this potential result, that despite this potential result, that the labour party should continue with your style of socialism, you and mr corbyns style of socialism, that this is not a refutation of you taking labour to the left, it is not time to return labour to the centre left . The left, it is not time to return labour to the ce ntre left . |j the left, it is not time to return labour to the centreleft . I believe we are on the centre left, i think the centre is exactly where we are. The country certainly doesnt. As i say, i think this was a brexit election. You cannot blame it all on brexit. It may be convenient for you to do it. There will be other factors. This is a judgment on you and Jeremy Corbyn and your brand of socialism . I disagree, i think brexit did dominate this election and that is exact rewired people have made their minds up on, i hate to use the expression, i think they most probably did want to get it done, and that will be it. So, youre saying that if brexit is done, the labour party should continue with corbynista, but almost certainly withoutjeremy continue with corbynista, but almost certainly without Jeremy Corbyn . Let me be clear, im not sure brexit will be done as a result of this. I think what will happen, people i think what will happen, people i think almost in despair wanted to get brexit over and done with because they have had enough of what has been going on, and the failure of successive conservative Prime Ministers to negotiate a deal which effectively protects our economy. Let mejust finish effectively protects our economy. Let me just finish this point if i can. I think people on all sides we re can. I think people on all sides were just frustrated and wanted brexit out of the way and that is what has happened. But the disappointment that they will find is that brexit is not going to go away. What will happen is, there will be negotiations for a long period of time, with our European Partners and anybody else. Deer running out of time, but ijust think a lot of people will find it not credible for you to blame it all on brexit, not this scale of defeat. I could see if it was a smaller defeat or even a Hung Parliament, but weve covered the nhs, and everything youve had to say about it, tax and spend, all of these issues, not just brexit, it, tax and spend, all of these issues, notjust brexit, its not credible to claim it is all down to brexit. With greatest respect, i think on those other issues, ending austerity, making sure that the nhs was protected for the long term future, and all of those issues, i think we did win the argument. But it is quite clear that people thought there were other priorities, and this brexit frustration i think has broken through. John mcdonnell, thank you. Thanks tojohn for joining us so early in the night, and a quick word with laura on that brexit theme, very interesting to hearJohn Mcdonnell really underlining the fact that in his view this has all been about a brexit. Would that in your view explain the labour performance . Not a performance as bad as this, and also it does not explain it to labour candidates and voters who have been talking to us in the last few weeks, it has notjust been about brexit. Candidates have said to us again and again and again, we have a problem with brexit but we also have a problem with the leadership and a problem with what they have found on the doorstep, that people are reluctant, traditional labour voters, to back Jeremy Corbyn. It is notjust about brexit, they have had problems with anti semitism, with some of the issues in the manifesto, and if the result, we are still saying if, is anything like this, i dont think the labour party as a whole will buy the labour party as a whole will buy the argument that it was just about the argument that it was just about the eu. We will come back to that. Really, if this exit poll is anything like correct, it means that there will be conservative gains in some rather unexpected areas. So, what i would like to do now is to cross the newsroom and go straight to our results centre, because that is where my colleague Reeta Chakrabarti is where my colleague reeta chakra barti is is where my colleague Reeta Chakrabarti is keeping an eye on the detail of some of these results, and reeta is going to tell us about some of the likely conservative gains based on the exit poll. If this exit poll is correct, we are looking at the best result for the conservatives since Margaret Thatcher in 1987. What i have on the screen here are likely conservative gains based on that exit poll and they include workington, which came to be emblematic in this campaign of the tories strategy, the tories we re the tories strategy, the tories were going for north of england leave voting, traditionally labour seats, that came to be symbolised by workington. Well, according to the exit poll, that has succeeded and they have gained workington. Bishop auckland, also a top conservative target. And then a list of seats which make up part of the so called red wall, stretching from the northern welsh coast, right across the north of england, to the coast, and down into the midlands, and they include seats like dudley north, halifax, wakefield, Bolton North East and don valley. And according to the exit poll, they are all conservative gains from the labour party. And bridgend in south wales, another top tory target, it looks as if they have been successful there tonight as well, if the exit poll is correct. Ijust tonight as well, if the exit poll is correct. I just want tonight as well, if the exit poll is correct. Ijust want to show you a little bit of detail, if we get into dudley north, what you are seeing is the result last time around, in 2017, because we are still waiting for two nights result. But we can show you what we think is going to happen, what we forecast, based on the exit poll, and that is a conservative gain from labour, with this being the vote share. The conservatives picking up 58 of the vote, and labour on 37 . This is really interesting, again, based on the exit poll data, and one more thing i want to show you, we will expect a swing from labour to the conservatives of 11 points if that exit poll is correct. And the other seats that i showed you just a moment ago are all suggesting swings of 910 , moment ago are all suggesting swings of 9 10 , based on that exit poll. Thanks long, reeta, we will be back with you later on and during the night, to look at the state of individual results, where we me see some intriguing and rheumatic patterns emerging. Talking about dramatic patterns, lets talk about what is happening on the financial markets, and indeed what is happening to the pounced, given that we have now revealed the result of the exit poll. Faisal islam, our economic sedative, is with me, along with our europe editor katya adler. What is the pound doing . A bit tentative during the day, but lets have a look at this chart, sewing what happened immediately when you announced that exit poll result, up, up, up and away, stirling, tojust under 1. 35. It was as low as 1. 30, so, up5 under 1. 35. It was as low as 1. 30, so, up 5 cents on its low today. Up 3 cents since the exit poll. The same level against the dollar as it was about a year and a half ago. What that is reflecting is, it is a strange old chart in terms of exactly what seems to be stable and good. A smaller majority may have left Boris Johnson good. A smaller majority may have left borisjohnson at good. A smaller majority may have left Boris Johnson at the good. A smaller majority may have left borisjohnson at the behest of various factions within his party, that was the feeling. A clear majority, if this is correct, we should say, gives the Prime Minister room for manoeuvre, to get things through the commons, and stop some of the problems that weve seen. That is intriguing, because in the past, you and i have been discussing the volatility of notjust the markets but especially the pound, around the uncertainty over brexit, and the fact that lots of people in the markets did not like the concept in the first place of brexit. Are we now saying that the confidence which is being reflected in the level of the pound shows that they have basically now accepted that brexit will happen, and that the uncertainty around that for them has been dissipated . I think the difference is that the most disruptive form of no deal was taken off the table by the Prime Minister getting some sort of deal. So, that is why the currency markets seem to be showing cheer to this result, at the moment. We may see some more volatility as the results come in, but it is a reflection notjust on the result but on the room for manoeuvre it gives the Prime Minister. Which brings me to talk to you, katya, about the fact that according to priti patel, the right process is now full steam ahead, we are going to move very quickly, with are going to move very quickly, with a withdrawal bill possibly coming forward before christmas, she certainly did not deny that. So, what will be the view in brussels and at the heart of the eu about what this result translates into in terms of the Brexit Process . Welcome there is a really interesting atmosphere tonight because you have all the eu leaders today together because they are at an eu summit right now and as the results came out, they were supposed to be discussing libya, but i have been told everybody was on their phone trying to look at the results. And thatis trying to look at the results. And that is because of what you talked about, uncertainty, it has been damaging for this country, it has been damaging for the whole of the eu and it has affected the economy is particularly of our closest trading partners in the European Union. I got a text message almost right away from a politician in a country traditionally pretty close to the uk saying, this means saying bye bye to the uk saying, this means saying bye bye to to the uk saying, this means saying bye bye to our british friends. 0ther bye bye to our british friends. Other Text Messages saying, we welcome the result. This is nothing to do with politics, Everybody Knows this isjust to do with politics, Everybody Knows this is just an to do with politics, Everybody Knows this isjust an exit poll at the moment, it could change. But if this result is confirmed, this is what the eu wants to see. It is not about labour or conservatives, it is about having a clear path forward and ending the uncertainty and a hope in eu circles, as faisal was x planing about the markets, that if this is a big win for Boris Johnson, about the markets, that if this is a big win for borisjohnson, it can mean that he can ignore the more extreme brexit is in his party and perhaps have a closer relationship with the eu after brexit. Those are the initial thoughts but i have to disappoint you, any thought that uncertainty might disappear, forget it, this is brexit stage one. If we leave the European Union injanuary, we go into brexit stage two, trade negotiations, and we will be told the clock is ticking once again. They are still very sceptical, to put it politely, about the timetable that borisjohnson has put on those future trade negotiations . Absolutely, borisjohnson says he is confident that he can get this deal done, in what will turn out to less than 11 months, by the end of next year. Because you would have to have the trade deal discussed, agreed and ratified here in the uk and by the eu, and if it is a more ambitious agreement, that means not just by the eu in brussels, it means all the parliaments and some regional parliaments as well. The eu is very sceptical about that. But if borisjohnson insists on getting some barebones Free Trade Agreement, the eu thinks that is to its advantage, they say, you want it done quickly, you have to do it on our terms. If the political map looks that are safe for him, he will have the freedom not to do whatever he wants but much more than we have seen for any Prime Minister for a long time. There is no sight of mrjohnson yet, his count will be happening in uxbridge and andrew marr is there keeping an eye on things for us and it could be a very big night for borisjohnson . It could be a very big night for Boris Johnson . It certainly could. We have talked a lot about the labour party already but lets talk about the tories because if it is true, and its only an exit poll, but if the red wall has fallen, that changes the nature of the conservative party in Parliament Quite dramatically. Lots and lots of new tory mps whose constituents depend on Public Services like high public spending and that will change the nature of the tories in parliament. It will give Boris Johnson as laura said a lot more freedom of manoeuvre. If you want to extend the transition period, he can do so, and in all of those endless trade offs next year about the exit deal, he will be able to give more than he was intending to and it probably means a slightly softer brexit that many of the hard brexiteers hoped for. Nigel parys will be cross, the erg will be but borisjohnson is will be cross, the erg will be but Boris Johnson is going will be cross, the erg will be but borisjohnson is going to be freed to show what the real Boris Johnson politically is nigel farage. Just on the Bigger Picture with the historic viewpoint, and given you have been commentating on these things for so many years, this would involve the biggest tory majority achieved, dismissed as a joke by many of his colleagues as recently, since 1987 and the worst labour performance at least since 1983, or worse than that, going back to the days after the second world war. There are very big records being broken in that sense. There absolutely are. December 2019 is going to be remembered as a historic turning point in british politics. We are going to leave the eu on Boris Johnsons terms, we are going to leave the eu on borisjohnsons terms, were going to see the conservatives built in even more solidly as the governing party put labour through everything they could at this with a radical ma nifesto they could at this with a radical manifesto and it has crashed, frankly. All the enthusiasm of younger voters, frankly. All the enthusiasm of younger voters, or frankly. All the enthusiasm of younger voters, or the froth and excitement on social media has got them precisely nowhere and thats very important. 0ne them precisely nowhere and thats very important. One final thing we have not talked about, look at the snp. Again, just an exit poll but they are forecast to get 55 seats in scotland, near total there. That means there will be a major confrontation over Scottish Independence between the freshly invigorated borisjohnson independence between the freshly invigorated Boris Johnson on independence between the freshly invigorated borisjohnson on the one hand and the freshly invigorated Nicola Sturgeon on the other. You might recall that the former leader of the conservatives in scotland, ruth davidson, promised that if the snp get more than 50 seats in scotland, she will swim naked in loch ness on hogmanay, something to look forward to im sure indeed and we will talk to you later, andrew. We are still of course waiting for the first glimpse ofJeremy Corbyn and his seat is in islington in north london and my colleague Nick Robinson is there. Your thoughts on what is expected and indeed your thoughts on the exit poll itself . No sign of mr corbyn here in islington and ina sign of mr corbyn here in islington and in a sense, its quite revealing that his aides did not want to tell them where he would be watching the result. Two yea rs them where he would be watching the result. Two years ago i was outside his house here but not a word from the corbyn camp. You can imagine why because they are having to think what they do, in other words, how quickly does mr corbyn quit because quit he will have to do now. What the exit poll tells us is that one battle has been won, the battle over brexit. Borisjohnson will be able to take, whether you like or loathe the idea, britain out of the eu. Another battle is over who controls british politics and he and the tories will. There was a new battle beginning already, the battle over the future of the left, over the future leadership of the labour party. It began already on the programme with John Mcdonnell claiming that this was nothing to do with the policies they had to the thought 0r indeed the leadership. It was because people were wary with brexit and they simply wanted to get it done. That is not what many people in the Labour Party Tell me. They say that day in, day out, Jeremy Corbyn was the problem. Yes, the brexit confusion was a problem but mr corbyn, what he stood for and believed in and what his track record and history were was the problem and that argument about what led to this result, if it was brexit or corbyn or policies on the left, that will rage, and it might even raid in this hall. As well asJeremy Corbyn, the other candidate in islington is emily thornberry, the shadow foreign secretary of course, who will be one of the candidates to lead the labour party. And sheep might use her speech in a few hours to spell out just might use her speech in a few hours to spell outjust how bad she thinks this really is for her party. Nick, fascinating, we will be back there straightaway if there is any sign of mr corbyn or indeed of emily thornberry. Nick robinson in islington. We are already getting some reaction on social media from labour mps some reaction on social media from labourmps or some reaction on social media from labour mps or candidates in this election for the Jess Phillips labour mps or candidates in this election for theJess Phillips in birmingham. This is a sense of the deep regret and sadness that is being felt by some labour people could this is Richard Burgon, the shadowjustice secretary. He is looking ahead to the next election. I suppose we would say that that is Richard Burgon saying he thinks the corbyn approach has been broadly right, but they have been put off track by brexit. That is clearly the line for corbyn loyalists and we heard it from John Mcdonnell, its close ally for many decades, and from Richard Burgon who is the shadowjustice secretary, from Richard Burgon who is the shadow justice secretary, absolutely pa rt shadow justice secretary, absolutely part of the corbyn tribe. But for many in the labour party we have touched on it, it is early in the night but thats not what we heard from candidates on the doorstep and even tonight, i have candidates messaging me saying that the problems were much deeper than brexit, corbyn and corbynism were much bigger and deeper problems on the doorstep. And a tweet from another labour mp, siobhain mcdonagh, somebody from the right of the labour party, she wrote that this is one mans fault, his campaign, his manifesto, his leadership. Turning to the tories, it is of course early but i have had a message from a conservative in West Yorkshire where they were looking to try to scoop up a lot of those seats that were leave constituencies but people have voted labourfor time constituencies but people have voted labour for time immemorial. In wakefield hemsworth, the queues were out of the door and they really feel ita out of the door and they really feel it a good position to be taking those kind of seats. If we are getting to anything like these numbers for the tories, they will have to have made really big inroads, grabbing labour territory and using brexit as part of the reason but not the only part of the story. I am told that we might get a result from blyth valley in seven or eight minutes so we will be there for that, not long to wait for our first result. And a very warm welcome to our viewers around the world because i know that many have joined on pbs in north america and indeed worldwide so thank you very much for watching this bbc special on the general election here. The first election in december in the uk since 1923 and the exit poll we have come up since 1923 and the exit poll we have come up no since 1923 and the exit poll we have come up no results as yet, but the exit poll suggests the conservatives under Boris Johnson are exit poll suggests the conservatives under borisjohnson are on course to be in power with a majority, a very solid majority, maybe above 80 seats. This is the exit poll we are projecting on old broadcasting house and there are the figures with the projection at the moment of Boris Johnson on 368 and the labour party ona johnson on 368 and the labour party on a very low score, according to the poll, of 191. On a very low score, according to the poll, of191. Looking on a very low score, according to the poll, of 191. Looking to the right there you can see the little lights, that is our piazza where Sophie Raworth is surveying the landscape on a big map of the uk and we canjoin landscape on a big map of the uk and we can join her landscape on a big map of the uk and we canjoin her now. Landscape on a big map of the uk and we can join her now. This is the uk but not as you know it. We have made every constituency exactly the same size so one hexagon for one mp put it laid out in the colours of the 2017 election but it gives you a goodidea 2017 election but it gives you a good idea of a balance of power. Take london, on a normal map it looks quite small but with its 73 mps, looks quite small but with its 73 m ps, m ostly looks quite small but with its 73 mps, mostly labour, it distorts the map completely. Im Walking Around the edges, this is croydon south, almost in the english channel. The smallest constituency in the uk is this one, Jeremy Corbyns islington north, less than three square miles. Up north, less than three square miles. Up here in the north west of scotla nd up here in the north west of scotland is the largest constituency and ona scotland is the largest constituency and on a normal map it is huge, big swathe of yellow, ross, skye and lochaber. But here it is the same size as everywhere else. What the map does show you very clearly is the red wall. If i take you to north east wales, right here, this is wrexham. Wrexham has been labour since 1935, a marginal seat and they voted to leave the eu. Will it turn blue for the first time tonight . Walking along the red wall, through north west england, 75 seats here, almost all labour and into yorkshire at this is wakefield, another labour marginal, in their hands since 1932. They voted to leave the eu, as did Great Grimsby which has been labour since 1945. How much will this wall crumble tonight . 0ver since 1945. How much will this wall crumble tonight . Over here is ben paige from ipsos mori carried out the exit poll and your initial reaction . Surprised . The exit poll and your initial reaction . Surprised . Surprised at the scale of the majority but it is designed to do precisely this, measure the seat share and not vote share put up most of the polls had been the percentage share of the vote but our system can deliberate surprises like this when we come to the seat share so it is very unlikely the exit poll is wrong enough to mean the conservatives have not got a large majority. Looking at this red wall, do you expect it to crumble this evening . If the poll is correct, and i have no reason to believe it is not, we will see dozens of labour seats going to the conservatives. You might even see places like all sober which has a majority of about 5000 bowl. Even seats like ashfield, workington, switching to the conservatives. And quickly down here, another area to keep an eye on, in wales and the midlands. Absolutely and in wales, the conservatives look to be making good games and in the midlands. This is a recasting of british politics in some ways around the brexit vote and thatis some ways around the brexit vote and that is what this election has been about. We will talk to you a lot later, thank you for now. We also have a lot of voters who have joined us for that responses, one labour and one conservative here. Surprised . Not really, disappointed but not surprised. And this is an exit poll put based on that, it would be a conservative win so were you expecting that . |j would be a conservative win so were you expecting that . I was and im overwhelmingly happy and it means is a britishjew, my community is not on the front line and we can get brexit done and put forward good, strong, conservative policies. This map is laid out in the 2017 colours and we can now pull it all up and as the results come in, we will start relaying it. Good luck, sophie we will be back with you later point at least it has stopped raining we will be back with sophie later and thank you to ben paige as well. Blyth valley, how are they doing with the count . 43 minutes past ten, the record was 44 minutes, set in sunderland in 2015. I am the record was 44 minutes, set in sunderland in 2015. Iam in the record was 44 minutes, set in sunderland in 2015. I am in the cou nty sunderland in 2015. I am in the county hall in one of the bits of jeopardy about whether this would have broke the record was the high turnout which youve been talking about. We have had some records broken already. 28 boxes came in in 14 minutes. That was a record in itself. We have seen all the people here counting furiously. 2244 is the time now so as not broken the record but its going to be very close and blyth valley come with the help of Bill Crawford who masterminded first result in newcastle and sunderland previously, he has been poached here to get the system going and he was the one who was trying to target that record. They still might be first, it is a 44 minutes past so the record is not broken unless it comes in the next two minutes. The trick was using new software. They used a Computer Programme designed to keep a running tally so as the last vote went in, that was when the result would be declared. It has not happened yet but they are working ha rd to happened yet but they are working hard to make sure they are at least the first tonight in 2019. Call us straightaway when it happens Naga Munchetty in blyth valley. And one place that will not be declaring early is st ives which is an interesting conservative lib dems battle in the south west because there are very high winds on the isle of scilly which means the vote there are delayed getting in and that involves the Royal Air Force giving help to the counting people into types. That will not be out for some time its buy. 0ne into types. That will not be out for some time its buy. One of the things we need to look at now, given the dramatic pattern suggested in the exit poll, is the labour share of the vote in some of the areas where they have traditionally been very strong. Reeta is standing by to tell usa strong. Reeta is standing by to tell us a little more about the early declarations were looking at and what might happen that to the labour vote. Here are a list of four traditionally early declarer is, all in the north east of england. According to the exit poll, these are all labour holds, these traditionally safe labour seats, and we are not expecting them to change hands, but the devil is always in the detail, lets look at some of the detail, lets look at some of the way in which we think the vote will be changing tonight. What you see here is the result last time around, we dont yet have the result for tonight. This is what we are expecting, a likely labour hold, with a vote share of around 42 . But let me show you what we think has happened in terms of a change in the share of the vote. And look at labours vote, plummeting by 17 points. With the conservatives and the brexit party picking up a number of those votes. I willjust show the brexit party picking up a number of those votes. I will just show you that in terms of swing, that is a swing from labour to conservative 1196. Swing from labour to conservative 11 . That is really interesting because this is in a very strongly leave voting seat, houghton voted 62 to leave in 2016. Hold that in your heads, going back to the list of early declarer is, Newcastle Central is a different sort of seat, it voted remain in 2016, this was the vote last time around and we are forecasting that this is a likely labour hold this evening, with labour hold this evening, with labour still getting half of the vote. But look at its share of the vote, down by 15 , again, the conservatives and the brexit party picking up where labour have lost. And take a look at the swing, 11 from labour to conservative. So, we will be looking at the actual result to see if the exit poll matches the actual result. But what is so interesting is that in a remain seat and ina interesting is that in a remain seat and in a leave seat, according to the exit poll, we are seeing this sort of swing from labour to conservative, which will call into questionjeremy conservative, which will call into question Jeremy Corbyns conservative, which will call into questionJeremy Corbyns very carefully calibrated position of neutrality on brexit. We are hoping for a declaration within minutes, so we are keeping a sharp eye on the north east of england, especially on blyth valley, as well as in sunderland and newcastle. While youre watching us, you can get more detail on the exit poll on your mobile. Bbc news has a seat by seat forecast. Just select a constituency to see what the data suggests, using our website, or the bbc news app. Have a look at that if you get a chance because it is a treasure trove of information. Amol rajan, our media editor, joins me now. Lots of the campaigning has been online, lots of the dispute and debate and lots of the dispute and debate and lots of the unpleasantness, if i can put it like that, has been online, and that is spilling over into the reactions tonight. We are also looking for reactions in tomorrows press, and you know all about the press, and you know all about the press, in your previous role, so tell us a bit about what we can expect. Well, there is an absolute war going on online, a lot of it highly unpleasant. A lot of it is really, as Nick Robinson was pointing out, about the battle for the future of labour if there is this heavy defeat. But for the first media hit of the night, lets look at the more traditional media, the front pages. Such nights as this pose a huge challenge for the newspapers, especially if there is a Hung Parliament, as there was last time, and usually you find that they get more decisive over the course of the night. No such problem tonight. Looking at the daily mails frontpage. The editor of the daily mail can makea frontpage. The editor of the daily mail can make a big call early on, and there we see it, very, very positive. The daily mail supported boris throughout the campaign. Less happiness on the labour supporting daily mirror. And we have also got front pages from the guardian, which is slightly softer, but a straight story, about the exit poll production. And finally, looking at the metro. This is an unconventional night in terms of newspaper front pages, going by the last few elections. I remember having to massively hedge those first editions. But this time, they think the exit poll is pretty decisive. Because even with any margin of error, it is still predicting a hefty majority. Put it this way, if that exit poll is badly wrong, those newspaper front pages will be collectors items talent, we will talk to you later on about what is going on on social media. Christine is joining going on on social media. Christine isjoining us now going on on social media. Christine is joining us now from going on on social media. Christine isjoining us now from edinburgh. What is going on . The count is going on at the moment and we are waiting to see the actual results from the first to seats in scotland. Everybody is looking closely at the exit poll to see if we can read a bit more into it, to see if. They have been in the past quite good at predicting the general National Picture but not the local ones, they cannot read marginal seats, things like that. So we are just looking a bit more closely into it to see what we can see. Because it is important to underline that in scotland, where there are so many marginal seats, as you said, there are certain circumstances in which the exit poll actually may not reflect what is going on in scotland, which is currently suggesting not a great night for the lib dems and a very strong night for the snp what is your personal experience there of campaigning, and what were you expecting going into this counter this evening . Well, the poll doesnt reflect what weve been seeing on the ground in scotland. You have to remember, it is only two or three months since we had a by election in shetland, the snp threw everything at it, they spend more on that by election than they did on the entire remain campaign, the first minister was up there two or three times, and yet they didnt win. The liberal democrats held that seat. It was a Scottish Parliament by election. So, tonights result and feels a bit, not result, prediction, seems a bit of a surprise, because the coverage in scotland, in terms of the exit poll, is maybe not as wide as it is in the rest of england, the rest of the uk, so, we arejust rest of england, the rest of the uk, so, we are just waiting to see, because it is not a reflection of not just ourselves but what the other parties are saying they have been seeing on the ground, and there area been seeing on the ground, and there are a lot of marginal seats, so we have to factor that in, the marginal seats, they probably wont all go the same way, so it is impossible to say, really, at this point. Christine, say, really, at this point. Christine, thank you. Maybe we will talk to you again later on. Christine jardine of the lib dems, giving us some of the sensor from scotland. What about the brexit party, nigel farage is with andrew. Before i get to that, i havejust seen a leaked copy of labours briefing to the shadow cabinet on how to handle this, and it says to blame the defeat overwhelmingly on one issue, brexit. And that of course is what we heard from John Mcdonnell. Nigel farage, leader of the brexit party, another general election, anotherfailure the brexit party, another general election, another failure to win a singleseat . Yeah, but we have used our influence, and that is the important thing. We are a new party, we have got no base. You are finished as a party. Well, if we get brexit, given that it was in the weeds back in february, we set it up and we put it back on track, if we get there, we have done a good job. I was determined that in this election we would use our influence to stop a second referendum and that overwhelmingly was behind the decision to stand down in 317 seats, andjo decision to stand down in 317 seats, and jo swinson herself has said that effectively that poleaxed her campaign. And then taking the fight to labour was important. What you are going to see tonight are dozens of seats which the conservatives are either going to win or come very close where they would not have got close where they would not have got close if we were there taking thousands of votes. If you ask me what i like to have won a few seats . Yes, of course. Iworked what i like to have won a few seats . Yes, of course. I worked that out but now it is full steam ahead to a brexit deal that you dont want. Yes, but i would prefer that to a second referendum and all the agony. But you have also said it is not really brexit. You told me in the leaders interview that when it comes before the european parliament, you would vote against it east if the current treaty on the table, with the political declaration, passes unamended, i cant bring myself to support it. I have spent my political career trying to get brexit. We are going to get brexit, are we going to get the right one . Maybe not. So it is ideal that you dont support, you havent got a singleseat, and your party has no purpose now . Well, i killed the liberal democrats and ive hurt the labour party. But that wasnt your purpose . My purpose was to try to get the right kind of brexit. If we get the right kind of brexit. If we get half a loaf out of it, well, thats what weve achieved. Is it time for you now to step down from politics . Lets see where we are in six months. If we are back in crisis in six months, i will have to put my hat back in the ring. I did it this yeari hat back in the ring. I did it this year i think fairly effectively, lets see. It is a bit like groundhog day for you, then . Do you know, i am groundhog day for you, then . Do you know, iam much groundhog day for you, then . Do you know, i am much happier seeing the exit poll where it is than seeing a Hung Parliament to. There must be a certain sadness in you, many people have credited you with brexit, they say that if it had not been for you, mr cameron would never have put the referendum promise in the 2015 ma nifesto, referendum promise in the 2015 manifesto, and here we have an election result which would seem to make sure that brexit, in some shape, is going to happen. And on this night, you are written out of the script. Well, you can see it as you like. I can tell you that if we had stood in every seat in the country, it would have been a Hung Parliament, that would have been a disaster. We will never know. Well, i think the liberal democrats would have won an awful lot of seats. As it is, we will see lots of seats which the conservatives are going to win because we have taken the labour vote who would never vote conservative. But there is no future for the brexit party now, given this result, is there . No, it will become the reform party, it will campaign for reform, one of those being not having a first past the post system. With a tory majority of 89, good luck with reforming the electoral system i know, it is going to be very difficult. Will you be part of this, i understand you are off to america to be Donald Trumps warmup man. Dont believe everything you read in the newspapers. But i was told by one of your senior aides in the brexit party. Ive got no plans to leave the country. Youre not going to be whipping up the audience as mrtrump going to be whipping up the audience as mr trump comes on the stage and put if i am asked to help, i may. So, you are, in other words. So what i would say is just is that as you travel around america as mr trumps warmup man, this so called reform party aint going to happen. Warmup man, this so called reform party aint going to happenm warmup man, this so called reform party aint going to happen. If i spend a couple of weeks there, there is always time. The election is ten months long over there. |j is always time. The election is ten months long over there. I am a campaigner for reform, i months long over there. I am a campaignerfor reform, i wanted brexit to happen. The only reason we are going to get any form of brexit is because we had a referendum, left to westminster, none of this would have happened. I understand that the way you position yourself in the end in this campaign is that instead of being a victory night for you, you area being a victory night for you, you are a footnote. Well, i tell you what, i think weve used our influence hugely. Do i want to see some Brexit Party Mps to really hold the Prime Minister to account . If that doesnt happen i am relying on the erg. Am i comfortable and confident with the decisions i made and the effect on this election . Yes, iam. And the effect on this election . Yes, i am. How did you vote today . I couldnt bring myself to vote conservative so i spoiled the paper. But what does it matter, look at tonight, dramatic election result, two thirds of seats never, ever changing in this country, so how i voted along with millions of others, under this system, is pretty irrelevant. Have you written your donald trump stump speech . Not yet. We shall wait with bated breath. Back to you. Thanks to nigel for coming in. Plenty to think about. Lets have a look at what is going on in blyth valley, where we were expecting a result perhaps ten minutes ago, because they were really promising a very quick result for us. But naga was telling us that they had had one or two wrinkles in they had had one or two wrinkles in the process. But there we can see that they seem to be lining up the candidates. Blyth valley, by the way, that is blyth valley verger yes, it is. We have been looking at that because that is is where we have had labour in power, in terms of the parliamentary constituency, since 1950. Exactly the kind of seat, laura, which would be an astonishing turnaround, it would be an historical turnaround by any historical turnaround but it seems like the kind of turnaround we will see tonight. Labour sources have said in the last few minutes they expect to either lose or come very close to losing that seat in blyth valley but right around the south east, bishop auckland, sedgefield, tony blairs eat, of course, is very much in danger. This will be a very, very early real taste of the kind of moves we might see but if the exit poll numbers are as dramatic and favourable for the conservatives as they suggest, they will have to take seats like this which, a couple of years ago, if you send borisjohnson, which, a couple of years ago, if you send Boris Johnson, that which, a couple of years ago, if you send borisjohnson, that kind of conservative could win seats in former mining communities in northumberland, you would be told you how to have your head read that could be in prospect and they are looking at the figures in blyth valley, and while they are doing that, i can bring in hamza yusuf from the Scottish National party. Thanks for waiting patiently to talk to us. Huizing on the exit poll suggestion you will make significant gains this evening. Is that your understanding . First and foremost, the most obvious caveat, this is an exit poll, not a result. It points toa exit poll, not a result. It points to a good night for the snp but whats difficult to predict in scotland, huw, we have so many marginals up and down the country, some by a few votes, some by tens of loads but others by hundreds. Theres a number of local factors loads but others by hundreds. Theres a number of localfactors in play. Theres a number of localfactors in play, we are telling everyone to keep calm and see the results as they come in but it is pointing to a good night for the snp in scotland and a disheartening result of a conservative majority across the uk, which points to a labour party not cutting through and being clear in their message in england. Im emphasising to viewers a short time ago that because a lot of the scottish seats in this election are marginal, its important to maybe put a few more Health Warnings around the exit poll. Can i ask you from your own understanding talking to your own colleagues across scotland, did you expect to make up to 20 gains or was that possibly ambitious . I would put that in the category that, you know, think that perhaps is ambitious. I would say weve had a good night from the collea g u es weve had a good night from the colleagues ive been talking to and ive been largely focused on the west coast and glasgow, but ive been talking to colleagues across the country. It certainly looks like our vote has turned out in good numbers. Whatever the exit poll is suggesting, what i can say with confidence is im pretty sure the snp will win the election in scotla nd snp will win the election in scotland and of course we couldnt have been clearer on the messages we we re have been clearer on the messages we were promoting and standing on in this election, namely two, of course, stop brexit and lock Boris Johnson out of number 10 and for scotla nd johnson out of number 10 and for scotland to have its own say on its own future at a time of our choosing. Here is a blunt question, as you say, lots of your campaign has been about getting a strong snp voice in westminster and even if you end up with 55 mp5, which would be an amazingly strong result in scotland, youd be up against the conservative government with a very Strong Majority. The suggestion might be even with those numbers, you are might be even with those numbers, you a re pretty might be even with those numbers, you are pretty powerless . Well, look, we have said and the first minister has emphasised, its not for any westminster government, borisjohnson or for any westminster government, Boris Johnson or anyone else for any westminster government, borisjohnson or anyone else to dictate when scotland has a referendum. That is for the scottish people and, of course the Scottish Parliament. The Scottish Parliament has voted to have that referendum, so it would not be for borisjohnson orany so it would not be for borisjohnson or any democrat at all to deny scotla nd or any democrat at all to deny scotland the voice, particularly if the snp win the election, as i think we absolutely will in scotland, which only reinforces the mandate we already had. So its open to you, are you saying to viewers tonight that it are you saying to viewers tonight thatitis are you saying to viewers tonight that it is open to you to hold a referendum regardless of the approval or not of the British Government in westminster . Well, look, in 2014 we had the Gold Standard of an independence referendum and that involved two governments that had diametrically opposing views coming together, having an agreement that secured a legal referendum that was fought, i would say, in very good spirits without a drop of blood being spilt, which im really proud of and that should be the Gold Standard to aim forfor the referendum should be the Gold Standard to aim for for the referendum in should be the Gold Standard to aim forfor the referendum in 2020 and the snp and scotland have that mandate if we win this westminster election. We have that mandate already, this simply strengthens that mandate. Hamza yusuf, good for you tojoin us and that mandate. Hamza yusuf, good for you to join us and takes very much and we will see how the exit poll pans out and how the results come in. We will peak keeping a close eye on whats going on. We have been talking about labours redwall. This is the kind of network of traditional labour seats that as laura was saying, on the basis of the exit poll, are looking vulnerable, places you would never imaginea vulnerable, places you would never imagine a conservative taking these seats and they include places like whitefield and halifax. If we go to wakefield, shaun ley is there, my colleague. What is the picture there and what is the light of the land as you see it now . Well, at the very least, huw, if the bricks arent going to be smashed in this part of the labour ward tonight, which stretches to constituencies like colne valley to the west of me, whitefield, where i am, hemsworth and pontefract to the east, at the very least a lot of repointing will have to be done by whoever succeeds Jeremy Corbyn as labour leader and what makes this seat interesting, whitefield, labour held on in 2016 with a much reduced majority compared to what it racked up in the brown lair days, nonetheless 2000 votes, but it is what you might call a double islington effect. 0n the one hand, has jeremy a double islington effect. 0n the one hand, hasJeremy Corbyn been a damaging factor to labour support here . What about mary creagh, she is the local labour mp, she used to be the local labour mp, she used to be the leader ofJeremy Corbyns council. They dont hold it against her that she is from london, from down south, but she is an unashamed remainer ina down south, but she is an unashamed remainer in a constituency that voted more than 60 to leave. I think she would have hoped a bit of stubbornness wouldnt have gone amiss ina stubbornness wouldnt have gone amiss in a place like this constituency, they respect her for her view and would support her despite opposing staying in the European Union but the question is how well have the Brexit Party Done tonight . There wasnt a ukip candidate two years ago so we dont have a comparison. The candidate says it has been a good night, theres been a strong turnout, we knew that from the other parties, but he thinks and hopes he has taken more votes off labour than the tories. That could allow mary creagh to sneak back in, but she will be the most nervous of the three labour candidates tonight. Im told by another candidate in another constituency, hemsworth, that has been labour since 1910, that probably labour have held that tonight but they have held it despite a Strong Performance by the tories. Jon trickett, Jeremy Corbyns rado cabinet colleague, can expect go back to westminster but with a much reduced majority. All eyes will be on whitefield, we hope it will be the first declaration of the three tonight, they are counting ha rd the three tonight, they are counting hard behind me and then we will know whether the Brexit Effect has been writ large because if it has, mary creagh will be toast, im afraid. We will be back there later. Lets look at blyth valley, which is going on as we speak. Lots of chatting going on in blyth valley and im told one of the issues is the result is close. This is the result where the conservatives are hoping to take blyth valley, which has been in labour hands since 1950, but apparently the result is very close and that explains the delay in the declaration, which we were expect things possibly 15 or 20 minutes ago, so we are keeping a sharp eye on blyth valley and talking about the labour red wall, which shaun was telling us about in wakefield, lets go to Colletta Smith in halifax. What are you gathering from the Party Workers and what are labour telling you . Well, theres two different votes happening here, two different counts from two different constituencies. Theres the rural Calder Valley constituency, thats the one we thought we would be watching tonight and it is currently conservative, only 600 votes in it in the last election and it was heavily targeted by labour but the exit poll today means the attention swings to the other side of the room, where they are counting the halifax vote. With that particular constituency, it is labour held at the moment and has been since 1987, and in the last election there was a 5000 majority for holly lynch, the current sitting mp, but the exit poll tonight suggests that seat is going to be swinging to the conservatives and labour wont hold onto that seat, so certainly a big shock for everybody in this area. Perhaps not when you look at the brexit vote, because this whole area is 55 voting to leave the eu, voting for brexit, so it seems to be that has weighed very, very heavily in this election and has really impacted, as you say, and has really impacted, as you say, a big labour stronghold for many decades and one that is potentially about to change tonight. This is a slow vote, the young people walking in with the ballot boxes are wandering in in West Yorkshire rather than running in in the north east, so we will be here for some time but certainly holly lynch will be sitting uncomfortably waiting and watching for the results whereas craig whittaker, the conservative mp for Calder Valley, who could have been vulnerable, will perhaps be breathing a sigh of looking at the exit poll. Carleto, thanks very much and thats the latest in halifax. We will see whats born out. Some reactions coming in from other labourfigures, including Caroline Flint, the outgoing mp for don valley, who is standing again. She says that is a very damning tweet from Caroline Flint and other reaction from a former conservative mp, this time anna soubry, standing as an independent in rock still. Another tweet that is full of regret from anna soubry. I understand in blyth valley, where we have been waiting patiently for a result, they maybe in the business of looking at a recount. I cant confirm that but they maybe looking at a recount in blyth valley, it is that close. Naga, can you tell us more about that . I have lost clean feed. Hello, yes. I started this coverage just over an hour ago saying, who doesnt like excitement when it comes to a general election . And we are here at blyth valley because this was expected to bring the count m, this was expected to bring the count in, first to declare, 44 minutes, the target, set in sunderland in 2015. The scene here was considered a safe labour seat, and theres been a safe labour seat, and theres been a delay, it is 11 11 p. M. , 25 minutes after we were going to have a declaration and the reason being is the vote is very close and we are not quite sure yet, we are being told there maybe a recount but that hasnt been confirmed. To give you a background, the initial thought as to why this count was being delayed was because there was a very low number of postal votes, there was a high number of people turning up at the polling stations and Bill Crawford, the man in charge, masterminded the breeze over the first declaration is in newcastle and sunderland in previous years, he said he couldnt fit any more cou nters said he couldnt fit any more counters into the counting hall. It is ram packed. They allowed for the extra votes coming into the polling stations so that delayed it. We were expecting to know in a few minutes, extra bodies have been put in, but the surprise now and the story is changing, the so called safe labour seat might not be and we havent got the result yet and were waiting to the result yet and were waiting to the recount will happen. We know its very close. Naga munchetty, thanks for the update, in blyth valley. Andrew, over to you. Thanks very much. Ive got mark francois, defending raleigh in. Your seat isnt in much doubt. If there is a recount in a place like blyth valley, it would ta ke a place like blyth valley, it would take a 10 swing for the tories to pick it up, you are picking up a lot of blue collar votes in this election. You had better not let them down we have no intention of letting them down. Really . No, we dont. We said we would get brexit done and we now have a majority to done and we now have a majority to do that and we can get that bill through. Because it is such a decisive result and the salisbury convention, the lords wont oppose it, we are leaving the eu on the 3ist it, we are leaving the eu on the 31st of january and that is absolutely Crystal Clear as a result of this general election outcome. These are people often on low wages, insecure jobs, often these are people often on low wages, insecurejobs, often dependent these are people often on low wages, insecure jobs, often dependent on welfare, life pretty grim in some circumstances, certainly not great. Is the tory party really going to do anything for their standard of leaving and their well being . Because they are voting for you tonight. Yes, you will see that roll out. There will be a queens speech before long, and then you will have a budget, which i havent got all the details. You havent got any of the details . Im not the chancellor of the exchequer. Not yet anyway im confident we will address some of those issues then. You get my point, what we seem to be seeing tonight and from blyth valley and the exit poll, families, people who have been lifelong labour voters in labour areas who have been lifelong labour voters in labourareas are who have been lifelong labour voters in labour areas are now voting for your party and im wondering, does your party and im wondering, does your party and im wondering, does your party really have the policies to make the lives of these blue collar voters letter . To make the lives of these bluecollar voters letter . Yes, we do. Because it wasnt in your ma nifesto. Do. Because it wasnt in your manifesto. Andrew, they put their trust in the Prime Minister and us and of course we must be worthy of that trust. Thats my point. Exactly, look at what has happened tonight. Theres talk of the red wall. In 1989, russias berlin wall came down and in 2019, labours red wall came down. Labours red wall is analogous to the totalitarian wall ofa analogous to the totalitarian wall of a soviet state . Have you slightly gone . No, not at all. Are you hallucinating . No, in this election, the labour Party Presented a marxist option and the british people have resoundingly defeated it. |j option and the british people have resoundingly defeated it. I guess what im trying to say to you is these are people who have not voted conservative before, perhaps for generations, they dont need to vote conservative again and its not clear from your manifesto or even the demeanour of your leader, whatever, that he really knows how to make these peoples lives better. These apologists will do lots of surveys after two work out why people voted like they did but there two overriding reasons, one was to get that. The second wasJeremy Corbyn was toxic. I campaigned in thurrock, i canvassed in a very working class ward in thurrock five yea rs working class ward in thurrock five years ago working class ward in thurrock five years ago five months ago in the rain and the weight and in two hours ididntfind rain and the weight and in two hours i didnt find one single labour voter rain and the wet. 0k. Ok. You are a staunch brexiteer, one ofi ok. You are a staunch brexiteer, one of i think they call them the spartans, but mrjohnson, according to this exit poll, will have a majority of 89. He doesnt have to listen to people like you anymore. Well, youve got what you want. We are leaving the European Union. But you still dont know which way you will leave in the sense that technically we will leave probably at the end of january, now, technically we will leave probably at the end ofjanuary, now, that technically we will leave probably at the end of january, now, that is almost certain, do you agree . Absolutely. But then we go into negotiations on our future relationship, and there will be a lot of trade offs there. You want to get friction free trade, you will have to get some continued alignment with brussels. That is not what you wa nt to with brussels. That is not what you want to do. Mrjohnson can do that now. He doesnt need your support. Andrew, you have a reputation for reading all documents faithfully, so you will know that the political declaration, which other tramlines that will govern this future negotiation, parts of boriss deal we re negotiation, parts of boriss deal were changed so that the desired end state is a competency Free Trade Agreement between ourselves and the eu. That is something eurosceptics have wa nted eu. That is something eurosceptics have wanted for donkeys years. But my point is that the issue that is unresolved is that the more comprehensive that deal, the more brussels will demand that we stay in broad alignment with eu rules and regulations. Well, they can demand what they want. The british people have emphatically rejected that in a gigantic vote. We have had a peoples boat, it is called a general election. The british people have said nothing tonight about the shape of the future partnership, and this is something that will continue to cause friction. Do you accept it is still possible by this Time Next Year we could leave with no deal . believe. Go back stage. Everyone said the eu would never reopen the Withdrawal Agreement and everyone and his wife said, boris, hang on, we would never be able to get a deal. He did, and he did it in three months. So on that basis i have com plete months. So on that basis i have complete faith in him to get a deal within a year. But if he doesnt, we still face the prospect of leaving on no deal. I believe we are going to leave with a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement, because that is what the political declaration says. The peoples front ofjudy within the European Commission may think differently, but they are not going to win judea. Differently, but they are not going to win judea. Thank you very much. Is there a recount in blind valley . As you can see, they are queueing up, waiting for some activity. It could be we are within activity. It could be we are within a few minutes of our first result of the night, in northumberland, this isa the night, in northumberland, this is a leaver seat, susan done with the local councillor standing for labour. Ian leavy standing tonight for the conservatives and it is neck and neck, we are told, between the conservatives and labour, which is a sentence i never thought i butter on an Election Night programme, but this is the kind of measure of the night we are looking at. Absolutely, if these seats go from red to blue, it would have been something we couldnt contemplate a short while ago. And you have to wonder what is the difference that the tories have been able to do this in 2019 in a way that they werent able to do this in 2017, because they have been a lot of similarities about the campaign. It would be easing off the tightness of public spending a little bit and then leave the European Union, give the government a majority to take us out of the European Union after the referendum. And in the same way, theresa may tried this strategy, the campaign was disastrous, she got into all sorts of other policy areas that we nt sorts of other policy areas that went so wrong. Lets have a look. I think we may be in a position to get a declaration. We havent got a result for the blyth valley constituency, but we have had a request to do a bundle recount. We will do that as quickly as we can, and thank you very much indeed. So it is not a full recount, vote by vote. It is important to say that. It is not going to take ages. It is a bundle recount, as the returning officer said. I have two guest with me who know all about counts, thank you both forjoining us. So we are waiting for blyth valley to come in, andi waiting for blyth valley to come in, and i suppose is a former labour mp, i will start with you and say for labour to be i will start with you and say for labourto be in i will start with you and say for labour to be in a position where it is considering, even, a conservative win in blyth valley, what does that tell us . Well, it tells us what i am afraid some of us have been saying for some time, that labour has lost touch with its working class, decent supporters in areas of the country who voted by a huge majority to leave. And i think the difference between 2017 and now, as hasjust been mentioned, is because then both parties were committed to leaving and honouring the referendum. That changed with labour, and once that changed, theres all the other issues as well, which i am sure we will discuss over the evening in terms ofJeremy Corbyns position, but has really changed things up there. And the brexit party has taken there. And the brexit party has ta ke n votes there. And the brexit party has ta ken votes from there. And the brexit party has taken votes from labour as well. So it isa taken votes from labour as well. So it is a very, very damaging night for labour. A huge, huge. I have to keep saying it, because until i actually see some of these results its very difficult to really, really believe them, although i do feel that what is happening in our labour heartlands is going to change and have to have that huge, huge debate within the labour party, otherwise we are finished. Lets talk about the conservatives, justine, because you said a couple of weeks ago that your fears were that the conservative party was becoming the brexit party. Something you didnt like. What are your thoughts, therefore, on the fact that Boris Johnson thoughts, therefore, on the fact that borisjohnson is looking at a majority of possibly 80 seats, which is, you know, almost in the realms of Margaret Thatcher back in the 19805, of Margaret Thatcher back in the 1980s, at least in the late 1980s. Are you prepared to say that your reading of it was wrong . are you prepared to say that your reading of it was wrong . I think at the end of the day my view was always that we needed to break the deadlock. I was one of the first mps in parliament who said it would take a public vote to do that. We have had that public vote. I think the deadlock on brexit is finally broken. But the reality is this election and was very much about domestic issues. And i think thats why the conservatives have done so well, because borisjohnson very much talked about the kind of conservative agenda that lots of people find appealing. He talked about opportunity, he talked about social mobility. I was gratified to see him lift lines from some of my speeches on social mobility in education, but they were ones that actually resonate with people, saying that talent is spreading but opportunity isnt. I think kate is right that he was up against probably one of the worst. Labour leaders that we have seen in a very long time, and thus he probably couldnt have had a better opponent, in many respects. Jeremy corbyn might have been bright, shiny and new in 2017, but by 2019, i think people really had got the measure of him, and you are also seeing that come through tonight. Above all, i think people just want to get on to a domestic agenda that is actually going to change lives on the ground, and now Boris Johnson going to change lives on the ground, and now borisjohnson has the chance to do both that, but also deliver on brexit. There will be viewers watching thinking hang on a second, we have just heard John Mcdonnell and others say this has been a brexit election. Borisjohnsons main theme was lets get this done, there was some discussion about domestic issues, but are you really trying to say that this wasnt a brexit election, at the end of the day . I think if you were looking at theissues day . I think if you were looking at the issues that people were saying cut through to them, brexit was quite low down. We didnt have big debates in this election about brexit itself, it was more about a domestic agenda. And my view is that i grew domestic agenda. And my view is that igrew up domestic agenda. And my view is that i grew up in a town that strongly voted leave, rather, i represent in an area that strongly voted remain. The issues that bind those communities together our lack of opportunity in britain in the 21st century, and that was the agenda that i felt borisjohnson talked about much more compellingly, and thatis about much more compellingly, and that is why i believe he got the result tonight. And i also think it is why many of those constituencies voted leave on the first place, because they are fed up of being left behind in a country that feels like its moving forward but without them getting the benefit of that. think it was a brexit election, but i think the interesting thing now would be, if this is right, this poll, lets remember were going to have a lot of conservative members of parliament who going to be representing seat where they are going to be facing all the issues that we get in my inner area, benefit problems, austerity problems, and it could very well change the way the conservative party operates. But it wouldnt have happened without people feeling betrayed. I am just happened without people feeling betrayed. I amjust going happened without people feeling betrayed. I am just going to pause there for a second. Can ijust go to newcastle and what is happening there, Newcastle Upon Tyne central. Are they just there, Newcastle Upon Tyne central. Are theyjust gathering . Can i have your attention please. I am ready to declare the result for Newcastle Upon Tyne central. I, pat ritchie, hereby give notice that the total number of votes for each candidate for the Newcastle Upon Tyne central constituency is as follows. Ali avaei, 2709. Applause Mark Frederick glenn griffin, brexit party, 2542. Chi 0nwurah, 21,568. Emily payne, the conservative candidate, 9290. Tay pitman, 1365. And that chi 0nwurah has been duly elected to serve as a member for said constituency. So there is our first result of this general election of 2019. It came at 11 26pm at night, and chi 0nwurah holding on to Newcastle Upon Tyne central. Lets listen to what she has to say. By lets listen to what she has to say. By thanking the returning officer for her excellent work, and also the police who have maintained our safety and security, and the amazing teams of newcastle employees here and also in all the polling stations across newcastle who have done such fantastic work to get us here. And i believe i am the first mp to be declared. Is that right . Applause so, for the moment, applause so, forthe moment, the entire British Parliament is labour. Chi 0nwurah giving her response to Newcastle Upon Tyne central. hereby give notice that the total number of votes for each candidate for the Sunderland South constituency is as follows. Richard peter bradley, green party, 1000 125. Paul edgeworth, liberal democrat, 2319. Richard elvin, ukip, 897. Christopherjohn charles howarth, the conservative party, 13,095. Richard phillipson, labour party Bridget Phillipson phillipson, 16,110. Party Bridget Phillipson phillipson,16,110. Kevin yuill, brexit party, 6165. And that Bridget Phillipson has been duly elected to serve as member for the said constituency. So there we have the sunderland result going in and a win for labour but on a much reduced majority for Bridget Phillipson, who has been the mp there since 2010. And it is in line with the exit poll. She will be thanking the returning officer and everyone who has been involved in the account, of course, but it will be interesting to see whether she says something about the actual course of labours national campaign. The newcastle numbers i would like to look at in more detail. The declaration we got first of all, four minutes ago. Holding this seat for labour on 21,568 votes, holding this seat for labour on 21 , 568 votes, a holding this seat for labour on 21,568 votes, a majority of 12,278 ona 21,568 votes, a majority of 12,278 on a ten out of 65 for chi 0nwurah. We will come back to those figures. Lets go to blyth valley. we will come back to those figures. Lets go to blyth valley. I would like to make the declaration of the result of poll for the blyth valley constituency. I, the returning officerfor constituency. I, the returning officer for the blyth valley constituency declare that the total number of votes given to each candidate was as follows. Thom chapman, liberal democrats, 2151. Susan elizabeth dungworth, labour and cooperative party, 16,728. Dawn furness, the green party, 1146. Ian levy, the conservative Party Candidate, 17,000. Applause ian levy, the conservative Party Candidate, 17,440. Mark peart, brexit party, 3394. The total number of ballot papers rejected was 94. The election turnout. Studio one of the big moments of the night, no question at all, this is the conservative party taking the former mining constituency of blyth valley from labour. This is ian leavey for the conservatives won a majority of 712, so not a big majority, on a turnout of 63 , but that is a very significant pointer to what is likely to happen according to the exit poll, as we go through the night. This is labour losing one of its traditional heartland seats. Its been in labour hands since 1950. Its on the northumberland coast, and, as i say, held by Ronnie Campbell for many years, who was himself a great leave campaign, but succeeded by susan dunn with, a local councillor, and now this man, ian levy, has won. Lets listen to what hes had to say after this remarkable victory. Thank you. Could i say thank you to blyth valley. This is a huge responsibility i have took on this evening, but it is a massive, massive honour. I would like to thank the returning officer and her staff, youve done a fabulous job. I would like to thank the police and Security Services for a fabulous job this evening. My agent, richard weir mouth, who has been marvellous throughout the campaign. I would like to thank my team, who have worked really hard, and also a special thank you to jack gevard, veronica and conor, who has worked really ha rd veronica and conor, who has worked really hard for me, fabulous. First of all i would like to thank the people of blyth valley because if they hadnt voted, i wouldnt be here tonight. Finally i would like to thank my wife, maureen, my children, andrew and alice. And i would like to thank boris. Cheering i would say that im going to be on that train on monday, im going to london, were going to get brexit done and were going to get brexit done and we are going to build the Strong Economy for the uk, were going to do that together. Thank you, blyth valley. Studio theres the message from ian levy and the supporters for the conservatives. Hes an nhs worker, he contested the seat two yea rs worker, he contested the seat two years ago, and he has won this traditional labour seat and it has gone into conservative hands for the first time. This is blyth valley in northumberland. A quick word from laura. Fascinating to see, he could hardly believe it and his voice cracking with the emotion, aware this is a symbolic moment in this night. Very early doors, a locker change but the fact the conservatives have taken a seat like thatis conservatives have taken a seat like that is something really remarkable and fascinating that he personally mentioned borisjohnson. And fascinating that he personally mentioned Boris Johnson. We and fascinating that he personally mentioned borisjohnson. We saw time and again Boris Johnson mentioned borisjohnson. We saw time and again borisjohnson went to the north east of england, he may well in that seat has been. What he was billed to be, that heineken conservative politician that could reach part of the country that others couldnt. A long way to go. The borisjohnson others couldnt. A long way to go. The Boris Johnson name others couldnt. A long way to go. The borisjohnson name coming up time and again and lets go back to uxbridge, where the count is taking place, mrjohnsons own constituency. Andrew marr, what do you make of the blyth valley result and what it tells us about the likely course of this evening . Blyth valley is one of those places i know a little bit, i trained there as a journalist, and the thought of blyth valley going tory, unfortunately i have to do talk to you otherwise jaw would be on the floor and politics never stops or slows down and sources close to borisjohnson have told me we are going to see a ferocious speeding up of the legislation to get brexit done and the commons could sit on the saturday before christmas and the house of lords sitting between christmas and new year, so no holidays for the gentlemen or the ladies of the lords, then a ferocious plan of change injanuary. A fairly major Cabinet Reshuffle coming later in january, a fairly major Cabinet Reshuffle coming later injanuary, probably the queens speech and the budget coming after we leave the eu on the 3ist coming after we leave the eu on the 31st masoe and excellently extraordinary torrent of change coming on this equally extraordinary night so an extraordinary torrent. What are they saying about timings in up bridge . torrent. What are they saying about timings in up bridge . I think it will be in late, 4 30am perhaps in uxbridge. I have beenjostled by lord buckethead, lots of strange candidates taking on borisjohnson. There was talk about borisjohnson potentially losing his seat as the liberal democrat vote in uxbridge collapsed into the labour vote. We dont know yet but the tories are obviously fairly confident of holding it and we will hear later on. We are standing in a grand poly tunnel for elite athletes. This is where usain bolt, Linford Christie and others trained but it doesnt look like we will see many photo finishes here tonight. Dreadful, sorry you are forgiven andrew marr in uxbridge, thank you. At this moment we should remind ourselves, weve had three results in an there are weve had three results in an there a re 647 weve had three results in an there are 647 to go. Lauras right, it is very early in the race, but weve had one dramatic result certainly from blyth valley, but two interesting results from sunderland and newcastle. How do they fit into the exit poll prediction . Are they in line . The man who can tell us thatis in line . The man who can tell us that is the man whos got his fingers all over the brexit poll, professor sirjohn curtice. Our first chat of the nice del matt knight, youve been hard at work with your team, i know of the night. Tell us about the results of lithe valley and whether they fit into your exit poll pattern . Blyth valley. The exit poll forecast that the conservatives would win blyth valley with a 15 point drop in the labour vote and we had a 15 point drop in the labour vote and the tories narrowly won blyth valley. Equally the 17 or 18 point vote in houghton and Sunderland South was anticipated by the exit poll. Labour did better in Newcastle Central but its more of a remain seat. One thing we expect tonight. Dont be surprised when we go further south into more pro remain constituencies that we do not see spectacular advances by the conservatives, but in the north of england, in leave areas, working class seats, the labour party seems in serious trouble so so far, it is early but if these results are at all typical of what happens later tonight, and theres other intelligence kicking around suggesting quite a lot of the labour red wall wilful to the conservatives. If that intelligence is right it looks like the broad picture of the exit poll might be right will fall. There is one crucial caveat about the exit poll, lots of excitement north of the border about the snp getting 55 seats. The liberal democrat candidate for edinburgh west, christine girardi, and hamza yousef wasnt claiming the 55 seats, but you have to remember inevitably we dont have that many sampling points in scotland. It happens to be the case the snp were doing very well in those sampling points but there were lots of marginal seats in scotland but as in 2017, when we again gave a Health Warning, the snp figure in scotland, that is the bit about the exit poll we are least confident about and if it ended up with snp gains but rather less than that, we, to be honest, wouldnt be surprised. Thats interesting, we were speaking to hamza yusuf of the snp earlier and when i put it who him 20 games was ambitious he said yes, it might well be ambitious and that ties in with what youre saying . But he did expect the snp to make significant gains and thats the message to take away, we can give you no more than a rough overall picture of scotland and it looks like the snp vote is up and it looks like the snp vote is up and the other unionist parties therefore at risk. That is about as far as anybody should take the exit poll so far as scotland is concerned so far. The Health Warning daily duly noted. We will be back with you later. A good point to go to kirsty wark in glasgow. What is your reading of things tonight, notjust the strength of the snp but lets look at the other parties. We talked to the lib dems earlier. What is your sense of it . My sense of it is very much that snp is being very cautious. Practically all seats in scotla nd cautious. Practically all seats in scotland are marginals, and on the basis of 55, edward white out practically all but two tories, one liberal democrat and one labour edward white out. Thats possibly an ambitious figure for the exit poll and we will have to see it would wipe out. Rutherglen in lanarkshire will declare around 1 30 a. M. , 2am. At the moment it has a 268 labour majority and that goes to a majority of Something Like 5000 for the snp, that would indicate the exit poll isnt far off if it. What they had to do was raise the game, they had to do was raise the game, they had 35 seats, they had to get to the early 40s so Nicola Sturgeon could make her case for the second referendum and anything more than that and then her case is much more strengthened. We will get a sense of that when rutherglen comes. Here in glasgow, we are in this great big barn, seven constituencies are going to return, marginals among them. We have some drama tonight because the police have taken away ballot papers and evidence bags because theres been allegations of impersonation in paisley, so that result could come later. All to play for. Scotland, as ever, one of the most exciting places in the election and if it is the case that Nicola Sturgeon is in the case that Nicola Sturgeon is in the 50s, and she presses for a section 30, it would be hard for borisjohnson to delay and delay but can he rule out forever . Not with Scottish Parliamentary elections in 2021, which would mean that would be the main part of the Campaign Stop interestingly, interestingly, Nicola Sturgeon was getting flak for pressing the second referendum button on this, stop brexit was the main message, there was a worry about her campaign ended in hit the target enough . If the exit poll is anywhere near right, she did hit the target. Kirsty, good to talk with you, back with you later and scotla nd you, back with you later and scotland always providing exciting news on Election Nights like this. Thanks, kirsty wark. Thinking about influence in parliament, and if we think about the Previous Parliament, the dup in Northern Ireland wielded enormous influence given their parliamentary agreement with the conservatives. Clearly, if the conservatives. Clearly, if the conservatives have a majority of 80 plus then the dup will, by definition, not have that kind of influence, one would have thought. Lets talk to sammy wilson of the dup, standing in east antrim. Thanks for joining dup, standing in east antrim. Thanks forjoining us. What are your thoughts so far on how this is panning out . If the exit polls are correct, of course the government is going to have much bigger, working majority and in one way that is good for the country. It presents certain challenges for us, especially given the fact of the agreement for getting out of the eu is so disadvantageous to Northern Ireland in terms of the impact on our economy and the longer term constitutional impact. However, you know, we have another year of negotiations for the future trading relationship. Its going to be full of pitfalls, challenges and things which the government is going to find very difficult to sell to many of. Studio im sorry about that, we lost sammy wilson of the dup. Hang ona we lost sammy wilson of the dup. Hang on a second, sammy. Are you still with me, we lost you for a second, but i can see you back again. Apologies. Carry on with the point you were making. Yes, so over the next year the government has to negotiate its future relationship with the eu. They will be many challenges in that, many things which i think its own supporters are going to find difficult to swallow, and that will give us opportunities to have some influence during those debates and during those discussions. And at the end of the day, if the whole package cant be agreed, then of course the parts which affect Northern Ireland will fall as well. The other thing of course i would say is that with a big majority of the government may well be in a position where it can wield much more muscle in negotiations with the eu, and if it can do that and finish up with no quotas, no tariffs, no level Playing Field as far as regulations are concerned, then of course that means that many of the difficulties which the current deal presents for Northern Ireland would be removed. There will be people listening to you thinking, well, hang on a second. Your reservations about the Withdrawal Agreement have been laid out very clearly. You are in a position of great influence to try and change that. You will no longer be in and change that. You will no longer beina and change that. You will no longer be in a position to change it in the new parliament, so how on earth will you affect the negotiations as they proceed . Well, the negotiations, of course, have to go from now on between now and next december, and they may well create great challenges for the government itself. For example, if the eu insist on payment for access continued payment for access to the eu market, if they insist on a level Playing Field, in other words we have to mimic eu regulations, if they insist on access to fishing grounds, then i think the government is going to have difficulty with its own members and be back into the situation where theresa may found herself where many of its own members say we are not supporting that kind of deal. And of course, that kind of deal. And of course, that then gives plus some leverage. Just a quick question on timing, when do you expect some results there in belfast . Well, we are expecting the first ones about 2 30 a. M. , 3am, on to 4am in the morning. We will be back with you then, but thank you for speaking with us. I was just trying to put to him there the notion of being in a parliament where there is a very solid majority. It is something we have not been used to. Not for a long time, because we can go back to 2010 and certainly the coalition put together a solid majority of the coalition but that was subject to all sorts of bartering behind closed doors between the lib dems and the conservatives. And since then, in 2015 David Cameron had a majority, but it was tiny, and even back then he had the dup and the brexiteers in his party at his shoulder the whole time, and there was lots of informal deals there with the dup at that point. If these numbers bear out, if they even remotely bear out and borisjohnson has a solid majority, we are living in a totally different Political Landscape, where broadly, of course, broadly, if the government wants to get something done, if the Prime Minister wants to follow a particular path, they can, more or less, at least going that vague direction. That doesnt mean a course that they wont be opposition in their own party. It doesnt mean that the leader of the opposition, one assumes a different leader the opposition, would not still have a role and there would still be pushing pool in parliament. Role and there would still be pushing pool in parliament. Push and pull in parliament. But that is and pull in parliament. But that is a totally different reality. Indeed, and different implications as well for how power is wielded in downing street. With that in mind, lets joinjeremy once again. Street. With that in mind, lets join jeremy once again. Here we are in our virtual downing street, and what we have done is we have got these tales, and each tile has a constituency name on, and we are using them to pave the path to numberten. The using them to pave the path to number ten. The all important line here shows you 326 mps. Thats the number you need here shows you 326 mps. Thats the numberyou need in the here shows you 326 mps. Thats the number you need in the house of commons for an overall majority. Thats the number we think, under the exit poll, that borisjohnson has easily got tonight. Lets show you how he has paved this path. Lets bring on these conservative seats. I will explain to you why they are in fainter blue, because they are in fainter blue, because they are in fainter blue, because they are not results, they are just projections. Where we have results, we place them at the back. If you look all the way back to the other end of downing street, you would see blyth valley in blue back there. After that, we place them in terms of how tight the exit polls suggest the results will be. So is going up to the 326 line and beyond it and seeing which seats we have here. These other ones, some of them too close to call, being placed here. They may not turn out to be blue. You see chelsea just across the line, you see hastings, which was amber roads constituency, very tight with theresa may in 2016 amber rudd. So letsjust move forward a bit, and as we move forward a bit, and as we move forward down this line, we see constituencies which the exit poll has is very tight results indeed. Stroud going blue for labour, Stockton South would be a tight gain from labour. Warwick, again, a tight game. Batley and spann was a labour seat, derby north was a labour seat. Carshalton is interesting, london, lib dem, going blue. Portsmouth south was red, going blue, warrington south, the same. West bromwich east was the seat of tom watson, former deputy leader of the labor party, stood down. Even so, you would never expect that to go blue. And very tight indeed we have wimbledon, reading east, st ives, while full south again. Walsall south. You would not expect them to be going blue. That is the exit poll telling us that, and at the end it is so tight we may see them on the other line. And goodness knows labour need them in the other line. If we go further down the street here, ican if we go further down the street here, i can bring on these labour exit poll seats, and lets have a look here. So you will see, in fainter red because they are still projections, you will see what are effectively the new labour marginals. These are the ones where we think labour have just squeaked it. Leigh had a 10,000 majority. Cardiff north had a big win for them. Chesterfield was tony benns seipt. Enfield southgate, we reckon he is back in, we cant be sure yet. Very north, a tight win. Bury north. 191 labour says the exit poll, and the conservatives on 368. And you will see as the night goes on we will fill in these seats. We will make them dark blue, dark red, and we will see exactly what happens at the end of the line, because those are effectively the new marginals, and they will all be different. Jeremy, that is fascinating, and we will be back as that path progresses. Jeremy vine with us once again. Lots of things to talk about in the studio, and i am fascinated to hear from what people have to say who served in the Previous Parliament and are trying to get into the new parliament. Letsjoin andrew once to get into the new parliament. Lets join andrew once again. to get into the new parliament. Lets join andrew once again. I am joined byjonathan bartley, tory grandee, have we not witnessed a watershed . It grandee, have we not witnessed a watershed . It is grandee, have we not witnessed a watershed . It is the end of your kind of tory party, a tory party which was pro the eu, more southern than northern, was quite posh. We now have a tory party that is much more northern, more blue collar, and is effectively the brexit party. It is effectively the brexit party. It is overfor your kind is effectively the brexit party. It is over for your kind of tory party. Well, i hope it isnt, because i dont think the Prime Minister is solely a brexit Prime Minister. I think he is a proper one nation tory, but it is quite clear that he persuaded in a lot of seats in the north and the midlands and elsewhere that the labor party was not the labor party, the common labor party is not the labour party they knew, that they once knew and were happy with, and that they were failing, frankly to in any way linkup with their cultural sense of identity in this country. I think it is an extraordinary change. You said that under extraordinary change. You said that undeer extraordinary change. You said that under mrjohnson the conservative party was beginning to look like a brexit sect. Sects dont win majorities of 80 plus. brexit sect. Sects dont win majorities of 80 plus. I think it is going to be a Different Party, because look at the complexion of the seats it is going to represent. I thought that astonishing result from the blyth valley, the conservative member saying i am on the way south to see boris, which got a great cheer, and i will tell him what we need. But my point is this is a passing of the guard from a tory party dominated by people such as yourself to an entirely different conservative party where people like you will no longer call the shots. Well, look. Political parties always change. They change the whole time, and this is a big change. It is a political watershed. And it will be a Different Party, but it is no bad thing for being that. This could build a new conservative majority across britain for another generation. Based on a policy that you have opposed, on brexit. And again, from his own tactical self interest, Boris Johnson was right to get rid of people like you. He was, i have a fundamental disagreement with the Prime Minister. Because he wanted to rebadged the party as the brexit party, and look what he has done. He very generously handed the weapon back to me before i left. But the point is he was perfectly entitled to exert his authority handed the whip back to me. I was firmly against the policy of no deal because i believed it would harm the National Interest and i think it was a point of principle. But he has proved, in this election, the extraordinary result, has proved that this brand of toryism is extremely popular on a one nation basis. Let me go back to jonathan ba rtley. Basis. Let me go back to jonathan bartley. Your basis. Let me go back to jonathan ba rtley. Your manifesto basis. Let me go back to jonathan bartley. Your manifesto slogan was if not now, when . To which the a nswer if not now, when . To which the answer is not now, and no doubt never. That is no doubt correct. It isa never. That is no doubt correct. It is a bad night for the climate and for progressive politics. We have to learn the lessons, and we need to be working together. We tried to put together the unite to remain alliance. We never wanted this general election. We were the one party who didnt want it and we want what could have happened in this scenario. There is no way of spinning this, this is bad news. Scenario. There is no way of spinning this, this is bad newsm is all the more remarkable because we know that green issues have been way up the agenda compared to previous years. We have seen the cover of Time Magazine with Greta Thunberg on it, and yet even with that you couldnt make any kind of breakthrough, it seems. Well, it is down to the voting system. It looks like we will have a big majority, on less than 50 of the vote for the conservatives, 42 , and they will have a mandate to drive through whatever they want. And that is bad for democracy. I think we have learned from this election we need electoral, we need it desperately. Right, and can i suggest with a tory majority of 80 plus you are not going to get it. Looks that way. It does question if there is a role, other than as a spoiler, for a separate green party. Lets just ta ke separate green party. Lets just take blyth valley. The tories won by 712 vote but 1046 people voted green. If they had voted labour, the tories wouldnt have one. We cant hand our votes over to another party. We know that in 2017 the third of our boats came from the conservatives. That wouldnt have necessarily made a difference to the result. We know that labour could have stepped aside in 30 odd seats, we will have to look at the results, but going into this election, two days ago, if they had stepped aside and 30 odd seats, they might have allowed 30 conservatives to be beaten. The point is we need to be working together. The point is we need electoral reform. And this is a broken system, which means that we cant have that collaboration, we cant have that collaboration, we cant get that progressive voice to translate into seats in the house of commons. All of that may be true, but what it means theirs, since it doesnt seem it is going to change very quickly, these election days just come groundhog day for you. And as long as labour dont embrace electoral reform, they are just going to line up the next conservative government. We have said this repeatedly. We have reached out repeatedly. This is labours loss, bottom line. It was labours loss, bottom line. It was labours to lose, and they lost it. I think you both for being with us. Andrew, thanks. Thanks to the guests as well. Have a look at this reaction from ian murray, a senior labour strategist in scotland. Kate, are you surprised by the strength of that . No, not really, because ian actually resigned at some stage overjeremys leadership, and some other issues, and he is probably right that in scotland brexit was not the issue. There is no doubt about it, labour is going to have to look very, very hard at what has gone on, and it is not something that is going to be fixed overnight. You know, iwould something that is going to be fixed overnight. You know, i would say that there are some really good labour mps there who have worked incredibly hard and who have voted for leaving. And ijust hope that they are not going to be all swept away, because it is important that there are people within the Labour Movement who are being able to tell labour people out there that actually everyone was not taking this ridiculous position. And he has suffered from that position of trying to face both ways. It hasnt worked. Which John Mcdonnell admitted earlier on. Yes, but it is admitted earlier on. Yes, but it is a bit late. I have to be honest, i blamejohn a bit late. I have to be honest, i blame John Mcdonnell for a lot a bit late. I have to be honest, i blameJohn Mcdonnell for a lot of this, actually more thanjeremy. Of course jeremy has this, actually more thanjeremy. Of coursejeremy has not been popular on the doorstep, and you cant take that away, but in terms of the brexit policy, it wasJohn Mcdonnell who has moved the party and has kind of madejeremy who has moved the party and has kind of made jeremy be who has moved the party and has kind of madejeremy be completely outvoted within his own party, because of the fact there are so many remain labour mps. All those labour mps who spent a year trying to disrupt, delay and do all those things, they are responsible as much asjeremy. We will talk to some of them as the night goes on. I know you both got to go soon. Is there a discrepancy there, a contradiction . This brand of conservatism that borisjohnson, this populist conservatism and then, within a kind of overall context of one nation toryism but we are looking in a campaign which has resulted possibly in a very strong snp vote in scotland which will raise inevitably more questions about the validity of a second independence referendum so is it really one nation toryism visit a form of english toryism which has one out . There will be some very different results across the country. In london, its a different picture for the conservatives, a tougher political battleground so its too early in the evening to say its too early in the evening to say its one thing or the other but what ido its one thing or the other but what i do know is what people are voting for in this election is resolution on brexit, move forward on that somehow. I think borisjohnson has the chance to avoid having to fudge it and he can get on with an agenda and says he wants to have us out by the 31st of january and says he wants to have us out by the 31st ofjanuary and a deal done by the end of december. He can now do that. There will not be a Parliament Holding him up or any factions that he will have to pander to. So he now has the chance to deliver on the exit he sold the british people but i think the other point clearly for me is this issue of inequality of opportunity. Im not surprised that many labour communities are now giving up on labour because frankly, i grew up in one of them and you dont see enough change and i think people are tired of being told, its going to get better in two or three years time and it never does and if that means voting for a very Different Party to see if they can do a betterjob, thats what they will do. Many former labour voters will have gone in holding their nose and saying, we will give the conservatives a chance and they will have to prove. I would like to say this result it turns out to be such a big majority sends a signal to the European Union and the European Union, they are not going to be able to sit back and say, if we hold on a little longer and if we area bit we hold on a little longer and if we are a bit nasty, maybe they will change their mind. This is brexit delivered. I want to see some changes to the Withdrawal Agreement and that can happen, the thing with Northern Ireland, that it can happen someone feeling quite positive tonight, believe it or not. Says a former labour mp. Its good to have you both with others. A word with laura ina you both with others. A word with laura in a second. At three minutes past midnight, remind you of what the exit poll is telling us. Just three results but this was the exit poll revealed two hours ago showing that Boris Johnson poll revealed two hours ago showing that borisjohnson is probably on course for a very that borisjohnson is probably on course for a very solid majority, possibly over 80 seats. Labour doing poorly and scoring 191 seats according to the poll, the snp on a surge it suggests in scotland, we will watch that closely and the lib dems relatively poorly on 13 seats and plaid cymru13, having lost one in wales if the poll is right because i stress, it is the exit poll, pointing firmly in one direction and that is the state of play at four minutes past men night in london at the bbc election centre. You are watching collection 2019. Centre. You are watching collection 2019. Election 2019. We will have the news headlines. The conservatives are on course to win a significant majority in the general election. Thats according to an exit poll for the bbc, itv and sky news. If accurate, an increase for the tories of 50 seats on their tally in 2017. It would be the biggest majority since 1987. The polls suggest labour would lose 70 seats, its worst performance in more than 30 years. The party has lost one of its heartland seats. After the first of december election in nearly a century, its time. Our exit poll is suggesting there will bea exit poll is suggesting there will be a conservative majority when all the votes are counted after the selection of december 2019. The conservatives on 368 seats and labour way down on 191. On those figures, we are looking at a conservative majority of 86. As people take it in, its worth remembering this is a forecast, not the final result but it project a big victory for Boris Johnson. As we have outlined through this entire campaign, the focus has been on exit. Had that gridlock in we want to get exit. Youve heard the Prime Minister say this, get it done before but christmas, introduce the legislation and get moving. Grim faces for labour as the party waits to see what the reality is. The first big upset, losing the long held labour seat of blyth valley. And i would like to thank boris, because. Applause. Iwould say that im going to be on that train on monday, im going to london, we are going to get exit done. There brexit policy, Jeremy Corbyns leadership has been under scrutiny in this campaign. That scrutiny in this campaign. That scrutiny will now intensify. Is it not time now for you and Jeremy Corbyn to stand down and make way for another generation . We will see the results in the morning and decisions will be made, im sure then. Lets see the results. If it is like this, it is over for you and mr corbin. We will make the appropriate decisions. For the snp, the projected result is near akin to their 2015 triumph. The liberal democrats, who helped call their election, disappointment lie ahead . We will just wait and see election, disappointment lie ahead . We willjust wait and see because it is not a reflection of notjust ourselves but what the other parties are saying and seeing on the ground and there are a lot of marginal seats so we have to factor that in, but the marginal seats probably wont all go the same way so its impossible to say, really, at this point. The campaign is over, the finish line is in sight but there is still a way to go tonight though for some, its definitely a sprint, not a marathon. Jessica parker, bbc news. This is a rare election held in the run up to christmas and they have in plenty of seasonal outfits on display. Conservative candidate then bradley wasnt going to let the election getting the way of his celebrations, turning up to the cou nty celebrations, turning up to the county and a jumper that said . . Just county and a jumper that said 7 7 just chillin county and a jumper that said . . Just chillin he said he was honouring fridays Christmas Jumper day. And while you are watching us, you can get more detail on the exit poll on your mobile. The bbc has a seat by said forecast, select a constituency using the website or the news app. Now it is back to huw and election 2019. Welcome back to the bbc election centre. There are five results now in. We have 645 to go but the bbc election exit poll and prediction is that the conservatives are heading for a very handsome majority for them of possibly 80 plus seats. They are certainly looking to gain 50 seats on their performance in 2017 stop look at this result from sunderland central. They tell us a story about labours performance. Labour hopes held onto this traditional labour seat, julie elliott, the mp there since 2010, a former union organiser. Tom dsilva former union organiser. Tom dsilva for the conservatives is on 15,372, a majority of 2964 on a turnout of 60 . What i want you to look at in this seat which houses nissans car patrick in the uk with a lot of debate about that because of exit, look at the percentage chapter labour, which is 42 in the tories on 35 and look at what has happened to labours vote. It is a very big blow to labour, losing 13 Percentage Points in sunderland s entrance sunderland central. Not a big boots for the tories. The brexit party up 12 points and we can begin to understand where the brexit party is taking votes in places like sunderland central. Its the theme that nigel farage was telling us about. The swing is a very hefty 7. 796 about. The swing is a very hefty 7. 7 from labour to the conservatives so in sunderland central, despite the fact labour is holding on, it is a tale of labour decline, a tale of labours weakening and of the conservatives strengthening relatively but its really labour suffering. That tells us the story weve been looking at the last few hours. Its been the pattern so far in the pattern the exit polls suggest and if we repeatedly see that, Boris Johnson is on course to win a solid majority and what he will do as quick as he can is taken out of the eu at the end of january, the can is taken out of the eu at the end ofjanuary, the promise he made again and again, relentlessly, every day, but beyond that there is not going to be a rush to number ten for smashing down walls and doing radical things. They would bring the brexit bill back to Parliament Friday for its first reading, to say, were to get on with this, do very little else, have a smallish reshuffle but after we leave the European Union, the plan would be with a majority like this to set the stage for a major reshuffle and potentially at that point, a big reboot of what the uk under a Boris Johnson leadership outside the eu would look like. It doesnt mean everything about brexit would be resolved, but we would be out of the European Union. That might be the start of the proper first phase of the kind of Prime Minister Boris Johnson might become. But hes only beenin johnson might become. But hes only been in there a few months, a year ago he was on the back benches. This isa ago he was on the back benches. This is a real political thriller if you are as nerdy about this as we are. Be proud of it. No question. Katya is with me. Returning to us. Talking of it about the context of this result as far as the Brexit Process is concerned but you will blame me for wanting you will not blame me for wanting you will not blame me for wanting you will not blame me for wanting to Pay Attention to wales, the conservatives were hoping to make quite a few gains and areas where labour has traditionally been strong, lots of these wells seats have rich labour heritage so im going to go across to the results centre and joined rita once again who has a few suggestions for us about likely conservative gains a few forecasts of seats that will change hands from labour to conservative. You are talking about being nerdy. Labour has come first in seats in wales in the past 26 elections. That might still be the case but we think these seats are likely conservative games. Wrexham, since 1935 labour but the majority there was less than 2000 the last election and we are forecasting the conservatives will gain that seat from labour. Alyn and deeside, that was number 73 on the conservatives target list so quite some way down. We think the conservatives might have been successful that, the incumbent is a labour whip and looks like he may well be on his way out of that forecast is correct. Delyyn similarly, quite some way down the conservatives target list. If we just going to delyyn and look at what is happening in the vote, this was the result last time round. We are forecasting this is a conservative gain from labour and just to show you where delyn is, nestling around the north coast, pa rt nestling around the north coast, part of that so called redwall of seats that have been labour seats for so long. We are forecasting this time round that it is a conservative gain andjust to time round that it is a conservative gain and just to show you what we think is happening to the vote share here, labour down 12 points, conservatives up in the brexit Party Getting six points. The brexit party didnt exist last time round. We are forecasting tonight that and another couple of seats here, vale of clwyd, the conservatives won this in 2015, labour took it in 2017 and we are forecasting the conservatives will get it again tonight. A candidate has told the bbc it is neck and neck with a potential recount, so one to watch. Thank you, thatis recount, so one to watch. Thank you, that is fascinating, and bridgend, which happens to be my birthplace, is solid labour territory, though if you go back to the 1980s, it was held by mp for one term. If you look at those other seats including ellen in north wales, they have had some conservative representation in the past. So it is not all solid labour patterns, but for the most part, when you look at these areas, including wrexham, by the way, which has been labour since 1935, that would be a bit of an earthquake if the tories took somewhere like wrexham. With that in mind, lets go to cardiff to the National Counting Centre and my colleague sian lloyd is there. What are you picking up about the likely patterns overnight . Well, as you say, in wales, labour has been the dominant party here since 1922, and labour very much making up part of labours wales making up part of labours wales making a part of labours redwall. They voted overwhelmingly to leave the European Union and it is in those leave seats which have been marginal, like wrexham, like the vale of clwyd, that we have been thinking could potentially change hands. Now, those seats have been forecast in the past to change from red to blue, but they have not in fa ct red to blue, but they have not in fact done so. However, we are hearing this evening that changes could be afoot, and we have heard from the vale of clwyd that the conservatives are feeling confident there. You mentioned your birthplace of bridgend. I grew up in wrexham, there has never been a conservative mp and wrexham. If there is a conservative elected this evening, it certainly will be a first, and it could be a first female conservative mp in wales as well. Also, bridgend was mentioned. That, as you say, has been labour since 1987. Madeline moon there, and i can tell you that mark drake fed, the first minister of wales, he was actually out on the doorstep in bridgend on wednesday, the final day of campaigning madeleine moon. So perhaps giving an indication that welsh labour did feel that it was going to be tight there. And i can bring you a little bit of reaction from the welsh conservatives. They are calling the exit poll as encouraging. They are saying that people on the doorstep have been telling them that they we re have been telling them that they were turning to the conservatives from labour because they didnt like Jeremy Corbyn. Another piece of music and bring you, as well, is that are feeling worried in gower. They took gower from the conservatives in 2017 and we are hearing there that they are concerned that it will be returning to the conservatives this evening. So it could be an interesting evening in wales. Certainly plenty for us to keep our eyes on. Sian, thank you very much. We will talk to you a bit later. And mentioning gower, for decades it has been in labour hands, but all of the gower peninsula, it is quite a rural area in many parts, but quite affluent in parts as well. It has been labour, labour, labour, until fairly recently when it was taken by the conservatives back to labour in 2017 and now it looks like it is neck and neck again. The story in wales is fascinating. Questions from sian about labour, people saying it is all aboutJeremy Corbyn. So on that theme i want tojoin all aboutJeremy Corbyn. So on that theme i want to join andrew once again. Thank you, were going to go to stoke on trent in the west midlands. The candidate therefore the labour party is gareth snell, defending a majority of almost 4000. How is it looking for you tonight . It is disastrous. The exit poll is a catastrophe for the labour party. Obviously i suspect my seat will be pa rt obviously i suspect my seat will be part of the list of seats that fall to the conservatives this evening, and this is one of the worst results the labour party could ever have imagined, and you know, it is all well and good saying that we have made some gains here or we have managed to keep the lib dems at bay there. The fact is, in stoke on trent, we are going to have another five years of tory government, bubbly with three conservative mps, and the damage in the untold horrors they will unleash in stoke on trent i believe lays firmly at the door of those running the National Partys campaign and the National Partys campaign and the decisions they have made about where to target and the sort of brexit response they should have made. Just to be clear, mr snell, although the votes have not been fully counted in your constituency, you think you have lost . Yes. Yes, i do. Well, John Mcdonnell. And your constituency voted leave in the referendum, it is a leave constituency. John mcdonnell in the studio told mejust constituency. John mcdonnell in the studio told me just over an hour ago that the reason labour seem to be doing so badly it was all down to brexit. Do you agree with that . Doing so badly it was all down to brexit. Do you agree with that7m isa brexit. Do you agree with that7m is a lovely and toxic combination of the fact that the message in stoke on trent thats been heard by the voters is that the labour party tried to stop brexit and, you know, it would be remiss of me not to mention thatJeremy Corbyn has come up mention thatJeremy Corbyn has come up on the doorsteps. Some people really like him, some people really dislike him, and that has been a turnoff. John is right to say that it is brexit. The labour party had a choice when theresa may presented her deal, you could either have stop the tories or we could stop brexit, and unfortunately some of the siren voices in the shadow cabinet, who have big liberal democrat boats in their seats, decided that stopping brexit and therefore lining themselves up for future leadership bids was much more important than respecting the votes in marginal constituencies across the midlands and the north west and north east, and the north west and north east, and they have sacrificed us for whatever political ambitions they wa nt to whatever political ambitions they want to do next. Jeremy corbyn and John Mcdonnell have been the dominant figures in your party for several years dominant figures in your party for several yea rs now, dominant figures in your party for several years now, and they have spearheaded this Election Campaign. Is it time for them to go . Yes. And what direction would you like to see the labour party go now . Would you like to see it continue with corbynism, but without mr corbyn, or moved to its more traditional social democratic roots . I have never hidden the fact that i am part of the social democratic wing of the labour party, but i dont think it is helpful to define the future of the labour party by one or two individuals. The labour party had a very good manifesto offering for some areas, around nationalisation of industries, around how we would remedy waspi women, around what we would do for hospitals and education in the nhs, but i think we need to think about how has our brexit position whitewashed over all the other good things we were offering to the people in those small midlands sounds like stoke on trent that voted to leave the European Union, and unfortunately we misjudge that, and as a result of that we are now going to have five years of conservative government, and were going to be in a where, at the next general election, forming a majority Labour Government is still going to be very, very far away. And my fear and my concern isnt for me and the jobs of my colleagues, although that is sad to see many of them leaving. Its that im not sure what state stoke on trent will be. understand, you have said that. But let me bring you back, because i am not quite clear what you are saying. Are you saying that it is your remain colleagues in the labour party, the keir starmers, and so on, that moved labour to a much more remain position, are they the reason you are losing tonight . It is collective failure of those at the top. Not everybody. People like andrew quinn that i know fought very ha rd to andrew quinn that i know fought very hard to make sure that the voices of those outside london were heard. But ultimately we had a choice. Labour could stop the tories or we could stop brexit, and we decided to stop brexit because we prioritised not losing seats to the liberal democrats on the back of European Election results in under andrew gwynne. Rather than the long term design of the labour vote in places like stoke on trent. And u nfortu nately like stoke on trent. And unfortunately the decision has led to the labour party now being out of government for another five years. Mr snell, thank you forjoining us from stoke on trent central. There you have it, even the labour candidate before the votes are counted saying he has lost in stoke on trent central. Counted saying he has lost in stokeontrent central. And just thinking about Party Leaders there, surelyjo swinson will be another one, which is why i want to go to Martha Kearney in the constituency jo swinson is standing in. The exit poll not looking good for the lib dems, i think it is fair to say. What are you picking up there. Absolutely, and if you look at what the opinion polls are predicting, you will remember that she did lose to the snp back in 2015, and i have just been talking to a conservative down the floor behind me who has been looking at the results, and his view is that this whole contest here is on view is that this whole contest here isona view is that this whole contest here is on a knife edge, although she might scrape through in the end, an s p counsellor told me they were quietly confident. The lib dems arent having any of it, they say that what she picked up on the ground means they are confident she will continue to hold the seat. As you have been discussing in your programme, there will be a big inquest. Whatever happens here in east dunbartonshire, there will be a big inquest into how the liberal democrats did nationally, and their strategy. I have been talking to one senior figure who says it will be very disappointing if they get fewer than 12 seat, under 20 seats, rather, and then also to a senior figure in the party who has been very critical of the partys strategy on revoking article 50, so thatis strategy on revoking article 50, so that is stopping brexit without a referendum. He said that was disastrous and a historical misjudgment. So lots of questions forjo swinson. Just some thoughts on timing, what are they suggesting for account in Bishop Briggs . We are expecting account not for a little while yet, around three a. M. Expecting account not for a little while yet, around three am. It was 2 40am in 2017 so we will let you know as soon as we know anything. Thank you for keeping an eye on dunbartonshire east at the count in Bishop Briggs. Now, just some thoughts, laura, we heard previously gareth snell, i think that is possibly the first person who is. We know he is not a corbyn supporter but he had some very strident things to say. We have just seen the first labour candidate who conceded on air that in stoke, which has been labour, labour, labour, the tories have been putting so hard, he has just said that publicly he believes Jeremy Corbyn and John Mcdonnell have to go. Brexit is part of a problem, he was holding onto a seat ina problem, he was holding onto a seat in a leave area, but clearly, as we have seen from others online, he is saying publicly that time is up and that labour must change direction. And that will bring us, and there is going to be so much discussion in the next few days, if these numbers are anything like right, so where was the mistake here . Lots of labour mps previously tried to get rid of Jeremy Corbyn, but the membership we re Jeremy Corbyn, but the membership were so enthused by his programme after 2017, because they were lost but went forward a little bit, the decision of the leadership was not to think what should they do wrong, so they moved to the centre . It was to go further to the left. If you ta ke to go further to the left. If you take brexit out of the equation for a second, it might seem impossible, but it is relevant, many labour people will be watching this tonight and people in the party will say this result, if it is like this, surely must prove that moving to the left may be a comfort zone for lots of people in the party, but it is not what can win the country. Theres going to be a battle royal over this in the next 24 hours or so, no question. You mention brexit, which is unavoidable, and ijust wa nt to which is unavoidable, and ijust want to put this point to catherine and to katya. We talked a short while ago about the likely speed of the timetable now that borisjohnson is likely to end up with a majority where he can do what he likes, basically. What can you say again about the kind of timetable in the next couple of months . How rapid is that going to be, so that we can ask katya about the kind of response. My expectation is that they will bring the bill, the brexit bill, back to parliament before christmas. But the arguments and all the stages and the possibility of trying to tweak it will have in january so they can live in borisjohnsons schedule in the end of january. Live in borisjohnsons schedule in the end ofjanuary. We willjust go to swindon. Lets see whats happening. I, susie kemp, being the acting returning officer at the election, hereby give notice that the number of votes recorded for each candidate at the said election is as follows. Andy bentley, green party, 1710. Katie critchlow, liberal democrats to stop brexit, 4408. Kate linnegar, labour party, 16,400 16,413. Justin 4408. Kate linnegar, labour party, 16,400 16,413. Justin tomlinson, the conservative Party Candidate, 32,584. Yes thank you the turnout was 67. 15 . And i do hereby declare that justin Paul Tomlinson is duly elected. But something majority for the conservatives in swindon north and back in the tony blair years, it was in labour hands but its a majority of 16,171 on a 67 turnout. He has been in mp since 2010 and work and pensions minister since april. Kate linnegar behind. The tories have taken 59 of the vote in swindon north which is being seen as a key labour conservative test. 30 of labour, 8 to the lib dems and 3 to the greens. The share of the vote, a 6 increase to the tories and 9 drop to labour and swindon north is the kind of seat where there was a big labour surge, you would expect them to be doing well but look at the swing. The swing is more than 7 from labour to the conservatives so again, a very strong point of four hours and this is the first result with had and this is down this is territory in the south east of england, swindon north and it will be interesting to see what happens in swindon south where there is a much more marginal contest going on. That result again underlines whats happened under Jeremy Corbyns leadership for labour in an area like this. This will play into the debate raging on line, huge for the labour party, was the move further to the left ever going to seeJeremy Corbyn into power . There is no question many will watch tonight and weve met many, he built up a very strong and devoted many, he built up a very strong and d evoted fa n many, he built up a very strong and devoted fan base if you like. For some people, he was the person capable of changing the country for the better but there were always profound doubts in the party about whether or not it was realistic they could build a coalition big enough to win the country and that result in the swindon seats, you have to win swindon seats if you want a hope of building a majority and taking power convincingly. Worth noting one of the candidates, the labour candidate was one of those whod been criticising and had to apologise, found at two of shared anti semitic material. That four voters as weve been going around the country, labours handling of anti semitism, though Jeremy Corbyn said he did everything he could, people care about that beyond the jewish community. There we have the conservatives holding onto swindon north and Justin Tomlinson re elected. We were chatting about the Brexit Process now were looking ata the Brexit Process now were looking at a conservative majority and katya, when we talk about people speeding up the process, the heart of the eu and the commission, do they think that is a good thing . Are they think that is a good thing . Are they receptive . When you are looking of the brexit deal, the one agreed with borisjohnson, the eu will say tomorrow at the summit it would like it ratified as speedily as possible by the new parliament because with had three years of uncertainty, across the uk and eu its been harmful for businesses and has tarnished eu leaders reputation for not being able to speed things up however what eu leaders will also say tomorrow im told is they want to underline this ambition for a broad comprehensive trade deal with the uk after brexit. They dont believe that can be done in Boris Johnsons timetable. He says he would like to get the trade deal done by december of next year but the eu is prepared to say to him, if you wanted quick and dirty, fine, but it will have to be under our rules and that would mean the uk signing up to all sorts of eu regulations. Where would be the take back control . What eu leaders dont know and ive had a few worried Text Messages, the assumption is if there isa messages, the assumption is if there is a big borisjohnson majority it could allow him flexibility to have a softer brexit let trade negotiations go beyond December Next year but maybe not, we dont know what Brexit Borisjohnson wants. Perhaps he can be more nationalist, the more nationalist exit than weve been led to expect so far so eu leaders are sort of nervous as they look ahead. Thats a fascinating scenario, trying to work out what the majority will do for Boris Johnson and what agenda he wants to push and maybe see what he can get out of the European Union. What is your expect patient, the way government will work under Boris Johnson, a very solid working majority. When Boris Johnson came m, majority. When Boris Johnson came in, he wanted to do everything in a hurry a hurry, renegotiating the deal, pushing it through parliament that theresa may spent three years doing in the next month he will continue in that vein, very keen to get everything done and dusted but then, with this kind of majority, hes got five years and hes got a cushion in his party so he can afford to do a lot more, he can afford to do a lot more, he can afford to do it a lot slower and get the sort of ambitious future relationship that perhaps he, his party, the country want but how he goes into that, i dont know. Its going to come down to the temperament. We havent seen what kind of Prime Minister he is and as laura pointed out, Prime Ministers grow into the role so its going to be fascinating to watch. Indeed given people in the past have commented on his temperament and all the rest, now he is boosted by this majority, this likely big majority and that surely will make him far more confident of the two. It depends what he does with his party and cabinet, hes been talking about one nation toryism, does he come out and changes cabinet or government quite significantly. New Prime Ministers often like to bring on a ca rd ministers often like to bring on a card tray of mps from lower in the ranks, bring on their own mps and create a powerbase that way so we will be watching to see who he brings on in the party, whether he brings on in the party, whether he brings anyone back on what kind of shape of party, what signals he sends out. In short, youre telling viewers youre expecting two months of hyperactivity. At least for the next month to get through the deal. As long as that deal is not ratified, no deal on the table, with this kind of majority, you would expect that process to be a lot quicker and will very quickly move on to talking about the future relationship and that is going to be the big issue. Again, is going to have to make a slight adjustment going from saying we are out in december 2022 then perhaps giving himself more room but he will have the cushion to be able to do that if he wants to. How likely is that extension if you wanted on future deal . The eu would like to extend in the brexit of all steel allows for a further 2 your extension for those sort of trade negotiations while the uk remains legally out of the eu but in practical terms will still be paying into the eu budget and part of the single market. Something else for borisjohnson of the single market. Something else for Boris Johnson because you talk about hyperactivity he set concurrently he wants to do a deal notjust with the concurrently he wants to do a deal not just with the eu but various other countries and its highly unlikely that any other country will wa nt unlikely that any other country will want to sign on the dotted line of a trade deal with the uk until they know what the relationship will be with the eu so all of that will be hanging. Fascinating, thank you both. Were talking about the battleground. We have only had several results but we are saying, the bbc prediction, its no longer the exit poll, its a prediction that we are heading for a conservative majority possibly of 80 seats but we will see as the results come in. 643 results to come so they may be some adjustments to be made. In the battleground itself, what does that look like. Huw, weve lined up the seats that labour were defending and what weve done is weve put the one that was one most closely last time right at the very top see can see there kensington, 20 votes in it and down we go and gradually the majority has increased. The question is, how far deep into this battleground the conservatives have gone. You got here just 32 seats on the wall. But obviously going into the selection all of the seats were red for labour. Lets see what the exit poll is suggesting. So far, very few actual results and where it is coloured in faint, that is the exit poll bits suggests kensington will be held by labour but you see this blush of bad results for labour, dudley north conservative, small majorities, newcastle with paul farrelly, canterbury, john woodcock, all of those seats, the exit poll has them going blue. These are the slimmest majorities. The majorities get eager but still, they turn blue. Ashfield, stroud, bishop auckland, peterborough, all going blue. On this board, you can see labour is not really defending any of its seats very successfully outside of london because here we have battersea as well on the last column which we have under the exit poll staying read sue in london, they are defending them better but you can see the conservatives doing an awful lot of damage just on this first board. Lets move it on and see some seats with bigger majorities. With all of them, by how close they were last time, we still have so much conservative damage being done to these seats in the election. Stoke on trent north going blue. Dewsbury, vale of clwyd, reading east going to the conservatives in the First Successful labour defence outside london, we have gower. Darlington, weaver vale, cardiff north, different story, all going blue. Surprising to see some of these names going from blue to red. Here we have some labour defences. Gedling, the majorities are getting bigger. Not a result yet. Bury north they would hold under the exit poll and workington, everyone talked about workington man, its going blue. Croydon central, so much conservative damage to the labour seats. So much of an invasion into labour territory. Delyn, bridgend. Dennis skinners seat bolsover. Clwyd south, still, the conservative invasion doesnt stop so then we go to, lets have a look here, seats 6596. At what to, lets have a look here, seats 65 96. At what point to the conservatives stop taking seats of labour . Lets look at the names. Stoke on trent central. We heard from stoke. Going blue. All the seats going blue and still they come. We had sedgefield, tony blairs old seat going blue, phil wilson was the mp. How can that be going conservative . Bradford south. Successful defence in coventry south. And we go to the first result here, majority 8000 and blyth valley, conservatives take it. That is seats 91. If you order them by how marginal, blyth valley s seat 91. Im tempted to see if we can move the camera bit further and if you go further into the hundreds, you go further into the hundreds, you see labour starting to make more successful defences and it may be the biggest majority the conservatives overturn. What is going on . If i asked the battleground is to show me seats that voted leave, big margins. 55 leave or more, as far as i can tell, theyve all gone blue. Im going back through them and im removing the seats that didnt have the big brexit majority and you can see, cant you, they are all going blue. So yes, those who said this is the brexit election, maybe not the only factor but the biggest factor here, huw. Thank you very much, jeremy and we will keep an eye on some of those seats which will be key symbols of labours decline, if that is what happens in many of those seats and ask whether it is as many people are saying, simply a question of the brexit factor. Look at this result from sunderland west. This is the eighth result with howard. Sharon hodgson holding on for labour and Valerie Allen for the conservatives, a businesswoman from cheshire, 12,218. The turnout there slightly less than we have seen elsewhere, 57 . The majority of 3723. Sharon hodgson has been the mp since 2005 and has been part of Jeremy Corbyns shadow team. The point is share again, 42 to labour, 33 to the tories. And if you look at the change, it is a huge drop in labours share of 18 Percentage Points, and the tories up by 4 and the brexit party, again this is a factor we have seen in these North Eastern seats, the brexit party up 14 from a standing start, obviously, because they didnt exist last time around, and you can see where those boats have gone. If we look at the swing, broadly speaking the swing is 11 from labour to the conservatives, and thats the kind of story that we are looking at and thatis of story that we are looking at and that is the kind of story that Jeremy Corbyn is looking at as well. His seat is in islington, that has been his seat since the early 1980s, and Nick Robinson is there for us. Just some thoughts first of all on what the labour story is so far and arejeremy what the labour story is so far and are Jeremy Corbyns what the labour story is so far and areJeremy Corbyns team in touch with you at all about what is going on . They are in touch but they are refusing to confirm what mr corbyn will say when he comes here, because of course we will wait to see what the labour leader says about why he thinks he lost. Was it him, was it brexit, was it something else, and also what is he intending to do as leader . The expectation even before a single vote was counted was that if the result was as bad as any people in the labour party thought it would be, that mr corbyn might not last the day. He certainly wouldnt last a week, and thatJohn Mcdonnell would take over as interim labour leader. Remember, the deputy labour leader. Remember, the deputy labour leader, tom watson, is not involved anymore. He has stood down, he is not running in an election tonight. But they are refusing to confirm, Jeremy Corbyns team, that he will make that today. John landsman, his close ally notjust for weeks or months but for decades, the man who set up and runs the Momentum Campaign that is so vital for him has said that he thinks that Jeremy Corbyn might not out stay his welcome, but he might not have to make a decision until the new year. I doubt very much he will be able to get away with that. I think he will be driven out of office if he is not dragged away from it by his wife, who will not assume to go through the humiliation of facing another Prime Ministers questions and dragging this on for week after week. But crucial also is what he says, because while the official line coming from the people that you are hearing from in the studio, the official line from team corbyn is this is all about brexit, more and more labour mps and candidates who may be about to lose their seats are saying no, no, it is about mr corbyn. Just one example on my phone coming through on twitter. Phil wilson, the mp up until the election for sedgefield, tony blairs old seipt, who according to the tories is likely to lose that seat tonight, says for the uk labour leadership to blame brexit for the result is mendacious nonsense, he says. Jeremy corbyns leadership was a bigger problem. To say otherwise is delusional. And believe you me, for every one person doing that in public, there are dozens if not hundreds doing it in private. The battle over why labour lost will be the beginning of the battle over who succeeds Jeremy Corbyn as the beginning of the battle over who succeedsJeremy Corbyn as the next labour leader. And interesting that while you have been talking to us and giving us that analysis, the shadow trade secretary Barry Gardner has been working closely withJeremy Corbyn and was asked if the party needs a new leader, and says this. These are things that will be discussed by the leadership of the party in the next few days. So i think thats probably quite a powerful sign from Barry Gardner that he expects the conversation to be quite robust about mr corbyns future. Yes, the truth is Jeremy Corbyns leadership is over. It is not at issue whether he is gone, it is only at issue when he is gone. I dont think he will concede today. It is not mr corbyns style. He likes to consult, he will talk to his allies. He, remember, wanted above all to control the labour party and he wanted to make sure that his departure and the moment of his departure ensures that someone like him, someone who believes in what he believes in, can hold on. And the tussle will then take place between the real critics of his leadership, the Emily Thornbury or keir starmer types, and the figures who are clearly successes to Jeremy Corbyn, who come up in politics because of him, people like rebecca long bailey, for example successors. But the argument has to be about why they lost. And what was so important about that the swindon result, a dramatic loss to labour, not in the north east, couldnt be blamed on being on the wrong side of the leave argument, per se, in which who was gaining in swindon north . The greens were significantly gaining. So the significant view that this was all about White Working Class men in the north of england who feel labour have let them down on the issue of brexit, that isnt going to wash. Thank you very much Nick Robinson in islington. Just a quick note as some more results are coming in, the first result from the north west, from cheshire, and it is a labour hold. The swing to labour is 5. 1 , slightly less than we have seen elsewhere, so quite an interesting thing to be noting. Can we see the figures for halton . And just to confirm, derek twigg for labour, a very experienced mp, being re elected on a majority of 18,975 and a turnout of 64 . If we look again at labours share of the vote, 63 , which means they have taken a hit. They are down by nine Percentage Points on last time stop so as Percentage Points on last time stop so as i was saying, the swing is 5. 1 , which is less than we have seen elsewhere. So just a quick update for you and the result, that is our first result from the evening in from the north west, from cheshire, and that is a labour hold in halton. Heidi is with us, the former mp, and in halton. Heidi is with us, the formermp, and mr in halton. Heidi is with us, the former mp, and mr banks. Thank you former mp, and mr banks. Thank you for chatting with us. We will be backin for chatting with us. We will be back injust a for chatting with us. We will be back in just a second, and for chatting with us. We will be back injust a second, and i will put some points to laura as well. Letsjoin andrew once put some points to laura as well. Lets join andrew once again. Were going to go to swindon south, a seat held by the conservatives, it is held by the conservatives, it is held the justice held by the conservatives, it is held thejustice secretary, robert butland. Have you held onto your seat . It is a remaining seat, not a big majority. They are opening the ballot boxes now for south swindon, soiam ballot boxes now for south swindon, so i am not going to count my chickens but the north swindon result was a swing to the conservatives, Justin Tomlinson getting 16,000. Each seat has its own characteristics and i am not going tojudge may result on own characteristics and i am not going to judge may result on the basis of that but it looks like an encouraging start for us in south swindon. We will leave your leader to count chickens, lets come back to count chickens, lets come back to you. It looks like you are going to you. It looks like you are going to win by a substantial majority. Do you have any idea of what to do with it . Well, i think we have. I think we have set out very clearly what we wa nt we have set out very clearly what we want to achieve. And its notjust getting brexit done. Its also dealing with a bold domestic agenda on levelling up schools funding, dealing with the nhs, and also the law and order and justice agenda, which ive started to help shape as lord chancellor and justice secretary, and were going to get on with this agenda in the months ahead. Plenty for a new government to do. But the manifesto was pretty thin gruel. And you are getting a lot of blue collar votes, and that is why you are winning seats in the north, traditionally labour seats. Do you really have any idea how to make their lives better . Well, i think we have set out very clearly what one nation moderate conservative government will do, and it is to improve Public Services and guarantee a Strong Economy. And i believe that breaking the impasse of brexit will unleash more investment and more growth into our british economy, and allow us to pay for those quality Public Services. You know, andrew, were listening to people right across this country, wherever they are from, and we want to make sure that no part of our country or no is left behind. There have been communities that have felt that. That was no doubt part of the brexit result. And now they are voting for you. And now they are voting for you. And now they are voting for you. And now they are voting for you, which means that they are now your responsibility. And you say that you want to improve Public Services, but after the austerity of the past decade, a lot of that austerity is baked into your public spending. You are not reversing any of that. It is baked in. It will continue. You will increase public spending, but from a very low base. Thats not going to help those left behind. Well, i think that what we are offering is accosted and realistic programme. Its not high in the sky promises that were made by the labour opposition. People didnt fall for that. What they are looking for is a realistic programme for increased investment, but in a way that doesnt jeopardise investment, but in a way that doesntjeopardise our investment, but in a way that doesnt jeopardise our International Economic credibility, doesnt mean that Interest Rates and the cost of borrowing starts rising, doesnt mean that the British Treasury have to go in hock to the international community. We want to make sure that our country has sustainable growth, as an independent sovereign state, ina way as an independent sovereign state, in a way that is properly shared right across the length and breadth of the United Kingdom. Thats what were going to do, and i believe that tonight we are on the cusp something historic. Well, it looks like you have a big majority, so theres a lot of things you will be able to do. In your manifesto there are vague words about looking at how our democracy operates. You are the justice secretary. What does that mean . Reading it carefully and fully, andrew, you will see we have committed to a commission that will look at aspects of our constitution and understand the pressures and the strains that have been placed upon it as strains that have been placed upon itasa strains that have been placed upon it as a result of these 3. 5 to mulch with years. I think that is the right thing to do, it is a calm and considered response to a genuine constitutional question. We are not going to rush to a back of the fag packet solution but we are going to seek to rebalance in a way that i think is consistent with conservative values, but also good for the Long Term Health of our british constitution. I get it, instead of having a policy, you have a commission. It is a time honoured british way of doing things. Andrew, it isa british way of doing things. Andrew, it is a sensible way forward. Very well, thank you. I am joined it is a sensible way forward. Very well, thank you. Iam joined by danny finkelstein. Why is labour doing so badly. Is it brexit or is it mr colbourne . It is Jeremy Corbyn, 100 . Candidates all across the country have said that he has come up on the doorstep. His handling of exit is a factor, but it is notjust that. It is the anti semitism, it is the culture of bullying and pushing anyone out of the party who doesnt share that view, and tonights defeat is not just historic, it is harrowing. Not just historic, it is harrowing. Not just for the mps who will lose their job, but those people who really need a Labour Government and will not be able to withstand what is possibly covering down the track. And ive had the excuses and people like John Mcdonnell saying it is all brexit. That is not the truth. There are deep problems with the corbyn project. But if the labour party doesnt understand the scale of this defeat, we will have learned absolutely nothing. Corbyn controlled the party, the infrastructure, the message, the strategy, the manifesto. Corbynism has been tested to destruction today, and this project has failed, notjust for those in today, and this project has failed, not just for those in the labour party, but for the country. Ok, i just wanted an answer, not a speech. But here is the issue. You have never been a corbynista, i understand. A lot of the corbynistas will say actually our policies were rather popular. People wanted our ma nifesto, rather popular. People wanted our manifesto, they wanted to nationalise certain industries. They wa nted nationalise certain industries. They wanted a better deal for the lower paid, and so on. Lets notjunk corbynism. Maybe mr colbourne was a bit long in the tooth, he had these associations with hamas and hezbollah and the ira. Lets get someone a bit younger. hezbollah and the ira. Lets get someone a bit younger. I think it is the definition of insanity to do the same thing and expect a different result. There were aspects of this manifesto i liked. I am of the soft left, and of course there were lots of those things, but it is too much. The voters felt it was incredible in the literal sense of the word. Of course it is good, it had so much stuff in there, but the voters arent stupid. I think if you had just had ten of these very good policies plus a different leader, we should have won this election. We have had nine years of austerity. We have had nine years of austerity. We have a charlatan as Prime Minister. Ican have a charlatan as Prime Minister. I can sense a huge amount of love for borisjohnson out i can sense a huge amount of love for Boris Johnson out there, but they were not willing to go i didnt sense a whole lot of love for borisjohnson out there, didnt sense a whole lot of love for Boris Johnson out there, but they we re Boris Johnson out there, but they were not willing to go with Jeremy Corbyn. There might not be a lot of love, but they are giving him one of the bigger majorities in recent times. This isntjust a conservative victory in quite a large scale, if the exit poll continues to be borne out. It is a changing of the guard in the conservative party. This is a very different conservative party now from the one that you joined and worked with. This is a more blue collar, or northern, less bourgeois, lesser southern, less metropolitan tory party. It is more everything, because they have a majority injust everything, because they have a majority in just about everything. There are new seats they didnt have before, but it means they are keeping seats they held at the last election. So definitely with the assistance of Jeremy Corbyn, election. So definitely with the assistance ofJeremy Corbyn, by the way, and definitely because they we re way, and definitely because they were ruthless about targeting the brexit vote, they have won a very big victory, but it is a big victory for one part of the conservative message. Of course it is. The brexit wing of the conservative party. Message. Of course it is. The brexit wing of the conservative partym it were the brexit party it would have scored how the brexit party scored. Its got a massive conservative victory. The important lesson Going Forward is you have to have both of those kinds of people into when a large conservative victory of the kind they havent won since 1987. And the challenge Going Forward will be, look on the conservative remainers stayed on board because they were not going to acce pt board because they were not going to accept a sub marxist government and therefore there was never really a challenge from the labour party and the conservative party was able to repel it. The challenge is going to be how to win those people next time. Thats the question ive been asking for most of the night so far and im still struggling to get an answer, youre now going to represent places like life valley, places that have had a hard deal, have been through austerity and are in a post industrial state blyth valley. It doesnt move the conservative away for a centrist like me, it moves it towards it. Thats my question, do you know how to help these people . Im hoping the conservative party does, it is one of my critiques of the party, its always been keen on the tax cut message and has not accepted the idea that for many people in the country, that isnt a priority, especially after a long period of cutting public spending. The truth is you dont have an agenda that will make a major difference to the lives of the people who voted for you. You say that but people obviously disagree with you, they have read the manifesto and voted in the election. They dont disagree with the manifesto. They have seen what the conservative party has had to offer, that is a fair reply, it isa to offer, that is a fair reply, it is a stretch of your point but you didnt have much of a manifesto in terms of a vision is. It was more a slogan. Very successful slogan. The key thing broadly speaking is it was not a victory for one part of the message otherwise the victory wouldnt be so large, and it wont be large again if the conservative party only concentrates on part of its message. We had better leave it there and let the argument go on. Over to you. Thanks very much. Lively conversation. South shields is still in labour hands, by the way, and an interesting note from john curtice at the results Centre Saying there have been a few declarations where the swing from labour to conservative as been a bit less than we we re conservative as been a bit less than we were expecting, so we should not clearly assume the tory majority will be exactly 86 or in the 80s evenif will be exactly 86 or in the 80s even if on the evidence so far that there will be a substantial tory majority. Just a bit of a Health Warning from john. Lets have a look the bbc prediction at this stage of the bbc prediction at this stage of the night. It is 1 02am on our election coverage, and the prediction is still at this point that the tories will end up on around 368 seats. Labour on 191. The snp on 55. The lib dems on 13. Plaid cymru on three. Brexit party with no seats. The green party on one and the others, 19. That is the broad picture and you are watching election 2019. So lets cross the newsroom and head towards the balcony, where we can join my colleague, tina daheley, with the news headlines. Thanks, hello. Early results appear to back up the exit poll prediction that the conservatives are on course for a substantial majority, their biggest since 1987. Labour is expected to lose around 70 seats, its worst performance in more than three decades. In the first shock result of the night, the tories gained live valley from labour. Jessica parker reports. After the first december election in nearly a century, its time. Our exit poll is suggesting there will be a conservative majority when all the votes are counted after this election of december, 2019. As people take it in, its worth remembering this is a forecast, not the final result, but it projects a big victory for Boris Johnson. As we have outlined through this entire campaign, the focus has been on brexit. You know, weve had that gridlock in parliament. We want to get brexit done. Youve heard the Prime Minister say this, get it done before christmas, introduce the legislation and get moving. Anxious faces for labour as the party waits to see what the reality is. The first big upset, the tories taking the long held labour seat of blyth valley. And i would like to thank boris, because. Cheering and applause i would say that im going to be on that train on monday, im going to london, we are going to get brexit done. Brexit policy and Jeremy Corbyns leadership has been under scrutiny in this campaign. That will only intensify. Is it not time now for you and Jeremy Corbyn to stand down and make way for another generation . We will see the results in the morning and decisions will be made, im sure then. Lets see the results. If it is like this, it is over for you and mr corbyn . We will make the appropriate decisions. For the snp, the projected result is near akin to their 2015 triumph. The liberal democrats will hope the exit poll isnt right. It is not a reflection of not just ourselves but what the other parties are saying and seeing on the ground and there are a lot of marginal seats so we have to factor that in, but the marginal seats probably wont all go the same way so its impossible to say, really, at this point. The campaign is over, the finish line is in sight but there is still a way to go tonight though for some, its definitely a sprint, not a marathon. Jessica parker, bbc news. In scotland, the exit poll suggests a surge for the Scottish National party. If correct, Nicola Sturgeons party could claim 55 out. Mens 59 seats, an increase of 20 on its performance in 2017. Scotland voted to remain in the eu. The first results are expected shortly. The exit poll suggests that the conservatives could make significant gains in wales with one expert predicting a possible wipeout of labour in the north east around wrexham, that means labour having the bolt in the south wales valleys and plaid cymru could lose one seat. The declaration is expected later in Boris Johnsons the declaration is expected later in borisjohnsons uxbridge the declaration is expected later in Boris Johnsons uxbridge and the declaration is expected later in borisjohnsons uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency. The Prime Minister has yet to arrive at the count. While theyre waiting, his rival candidates, lord buckethead and count binface, have been providing the entertainment for those gathered. While youre watching us, you can get more information from bbc news online and theres more from me throughout the night. Now it is back to huw. Welcome back to election 2019, and we are talking about the pattern of voting and what it tells us in terms of the possible reasons people voted, why they did in some parts of the country, a debate going on about whether it was a brexit election or a rejection ofJeremy Corbyn, as some are saying, including labour people and there a result from nuneaton. The first results from the west midlands, a key battleground area, where labour had to really do well if it was to make some significant gains this evening but look at this. Marcus jones, the significant gains this evening but look at this. Marcusjones, the mp since 2010, re elected for nuneaton on 27,390 votes, a turnout of 64 . A majority of over 13,000. I want to look at the share, if i can, because the share of the vote is high, sixth 1 for the tories in nuneaton and 32 to labour, almost half 61 . That tells you the story, the conservatives storming ahead by 9 in this part of the midlands and labour taking a hit of 10 . What is the swing . It is a very, very strong swing of 9. 4 from labour to the conservatives. That is nuneaton in warwickshire, the first result we have had in. Weve had 12 results so far, 638 to go. 1 08am and waiting patiently to talk to us we have heidi allen, who left the tories and joined the lib dems, and aaron banks, the founder of leave the eu. Thanks for waiting to talk to us patiently. Aaron, are you celebrating this conservative victory . It is a brilliant victory. I think burrows has done a fabulous thing and its on the scale of misses the actor type victory, which probably means to terms boris. Mrs thatcher. What will it mean for brexit . The first part of the deal will rapidly go through parliament and he has a Strong Majority to negotiate the free trade deal, we get the brexit we were looking for. Do you buy the possibility that that can be tied up by the end of 2020 . do now, yes, theres a Strong Majority. Its interesting that its really united the right now. The brexit partys. You really united the right now. The brexit partys. You know, its over. Nigel did a great thing when he stood down in the 300 seats. was going to ask you about that. Thats the point where it happened, in his heart he knew that would destroy the brexit party and hes clearly ta ken votes from the destroy the brexit party and hes clearly taken votes from the labour party up north. There was a lot of debate about precisely the effect of that and whether taking votes away from the conservatives would allow labour to succeed. If you look at nuneaton, it wasnt the brexit party, it was a straight swap, up north he has taken labour votes. You have questioned the strategy at some points, what would you say to mr farage now about the strategy he adopted . Its always been about pressure. What we try to do is return the conservative party to its co re return the conservative party to its core routes, which we have done. With due respect to heidi. core routes, which we have done. With due respect to heidi. I think heidi will have something to say about that the 40 or so strong remainers in parliament have gone. Purged. That is the word i would like to use. Fair enough. We made set out to make the conservative Party Conservative again and weve done that. Boris and nigel naturally clash because they appeal to the same working class voters. They were clearly in the same kind of space. I think that was key. If youre a brexiteer, heidi, which i know youre not, but if you are, it is job done, isnt it . Blue i was listening to aaron, if we can put the general election aside for one moment in our minds, what have we become . The right is united and the left has had Jeremy Corbyn, this isnt good for our country. The tory party is different from the one i joined. If it is as it is now i never would have joined. Regardless of the result, we are in a bad place for democracy in this country. Millions of votes will be ignored, they will have no value whatsoever, and we have a hard right government in control and an official opposition that has failed to do its job, and thats not a good place. will pause for a second because we have a result in workington, sean daly is there. Whats going on . Well, everybody is gathering round the tables to find out exactly how workington has voted in the final event. Conservative think tank onwards identified the typical voter that Boris Johnson onwards identified the typical voter that borisjohnson needed to win over to break labour vote in the north and it is looking very much as if the conservative party have won here. We will find out in a minute but the labour party looking rather sombre and the conservative party a few feet away from me have been eating pizza, laughing and rather jovial. We expect that result very shortly. Thanks very much for that update and we will keep an eye on that. Lets go to darlington and talk to kasia madera. Cash, could you tell us what your reading of things is in darlington . Kasia. Well, when it comes to the labour party, its looking a little bit sombre. Let me just put this into context for you, because darlington has been a labour safe seat for 27 yea rs. Has been a labour safe seat for 27 years. Just think back to the days of the former Labour Health secretary alan milburn with his over 10,000 vote majority. Now, when the shadow brexit ministerjenny chapman came in in 2010, that majority did drop tojust over 3000 came in in 2010, that majority did drop to just over 3000 but for the past three elections, she has maintained that majority and given that darlington voted in the Eu Referendum to leave by 56 , its no surprise that the conservatives have been targeting this constituency, and theyve been targeting it so strongly that at the beginning of the week borisjohnson turned up here by private jet, the week borisjohnson turned up here by privatejet, which the week borisjohnson turned up here by private jet, which actually raised a few eyebrows because he was coming from doncaster, which is only an hour away by train. Now, when it comes to the mood here, when you sort of look and speak to the conservative campaigners, they re feeling confident but actually if you looked at the local election results, across tees valley the political realignment is going on. A conservative was elected as the tees valley mayor and for the first time in 28 years, labour lost the darlington local authority. They lost nine seats. So the conservative party became the Largest Party in that local authority. They were just four seats away from a majority, so really fascinating to see how thats changing. The conservative Party Candidate is not in anyway. Hes very demure about the whole thing. He said he is not complacent. Peter gibson was saying, when it comes to any potential votes turning from red to blue, it is certainly votes he describes as being on loan and its very much up to the conservatives to prove that they deserve those votes stop is a really interesting and it will be interesting to see if he, peter gibson, voted remain in the Eu Referendum so interesting to if that is reflected. If youre talking to the huddles of the different political parties, the conservatives are feeling quite confident. Likewise when you speak to the labour campaigners, they feel a stronger message on brexit would have been helpful when they were out campaigning. We are expecting a result very, very shortly. The piles of votes are piling up so we expect it hopefully in the next 5 10 in its. Kasia, thanks very much and we will be back in darlington, a key test. 5 10 minutes. This is East Kilbride, our thirst result in the next few minutes, this is rutherglen, where labour were elected in 2017, jarrod killen. For the snp we have Margaret Ferrier contesting. We she was the mp in 2015 and 2017, a former scotland spokesman for the snp. We have seen some snp Party Workers cheering and looking rather happy, they are clearly waiting for the result to come in. It looks as if this could bea come in. It looks as if this could be a good result for the Scottish National party. Again, potentially gaining from labour. The number two target seat for the snp in scotland. This is a seat in the south east of glasgow. Nicola sturgeon, the first minister, has made Many Campaign visits to rutherglen and Hamilton West. Laura is with me. Laura, this will be a test of elements of the exit poll to see how strong that snp performance is. And remember we have less data because of the nature of the way the poll was carried out. This has been very high on the target list, rutherglen outside of the west of glasgow, Nicola Sturgeon has been there all the time, and trying to return a narrow majority, 18,000 or so last time between the snp and labour just ahead, so so last time between the snp and labourjust ahead, so if the snp surging back is to be real, this is where it has to start. Indeed, because if it doesnt happen here, you will have to ask some very serious questions about the projections for the snp in scotland. But judging projections for the snp in scotland. Butjudging by the projections for the snp in scotland. But judging by the faces projections for the snp in scotland. Butjudging by the faces and that she is we saw earlier on, the word was clearly out that they think they have done rather well. It certainly looks like it, we start off with a jigsaw and we think we know what the shape of it is going to be an piece by piece as each result comes through we are able to put it together. But as we wait for that result, if the snp has strengthened theirgrip on result, if the snp has strengthened their grip on scotland to this kind of extent, if they are above 56 or so, meanwhile so much of england seems to be turning blue, that poses a very serious question and really raises the tensions over the union again. Throughout this campaign, Nicola Sturgeon has been absolutely over that she is determined to try to get another referendum as soon as she possibly can. Also, the tories on the other side, which has helped them getting unionist votes in scotland, have been completely clear they would not allow her to do that. Now, those two sides cannot hold intense like that forever. It may be that the results of tonight i going to set up a very tense situation between the politics of scotland and the politics of england, and a conservative Prime Minister who is in office because of a solid majority that he has got from england and maybe from parts of wales. Last time round although the tories had a terrible night they ended up with 13 mps from scotland. Scotla nd ended up with 13 mps from scotland. Scotland saved theresa may. Boris johnson looks to be winning significantly here, but without scotland. That may well have very big consequences for his time in government. Looking at the pictures there, and given that we are both vetera ns there, and given that we are both veterans of this spotting of counting, do you think they are nearly ready, or not . It doesnt look like the candidates have been called to the stage, which is normally the tell tale sign, but lots of raising of eyebrows by the labour activists at the front of the crowd. I know mike of the Scottish National party has joined andrew along with nicky morgan, the former conservative cabinet minister. So i am wondering, as we wait for this, we may have to interrupt rudely, andrew, but why dont we justjoin you, because East Kilbride is about to come up. We dont know how well the snp have done, but you have done very well tonight, that is the way it is looking. But it looks like there will be a substantial conservative majority in westminster. You want a second scottish referendum, mrjohnson says you are not going to get one. What happens . The people of scotland will have said that they want one. The Tory Campaign is about refusing that. If they have lost a substantial number of seats, and i believe they have lost a substantial numberof believe they have lost a substantial number of seats, then that message has been rejected. If borisjohnson isa has been rejected. If borisjohnson is a democrat, he has to recognise that. We have to move on from the emberagreement in 2012 that. We have to move on from the ember agreement in 2012 which we agreed could only be resolved democratically. But whether or not scotla nd democratically. But whether or not scotland has a second referendum is a matter for westminster. It scotland has a second referendum is a matterfor westminster. It is scotland has a second referendum is a matter for westminster. It is a reserve power. They both have to vote for it. But you cannot have a legal referendum unless westminster agrees, that is the law. So if westminster says, certainly for 2020, you are not having one, we will look at it again after holyrood, the scottish elections in 2021, what do you do . We say there isa 2021, what do you do . We say there is a majority for one in scotland. We thought this election very clearly on scotlands right to choose, and the choice is very clear. The people of scotland would decide that. Thats what has to happen. Lets get a declaration, but not from scotland, i think. We are going to workington, lets go from East Kilbride to workington and see what is going on there. I, being the acting returning officer for the workington constituency, do hereby declare that the total number of votes cast for each candidate was as follows. Nicky cockburn, independent, 842. Sue hayman, labour party, 16,312. Neil hughes, liberal democrat, 1525. Roy ivinson 87. Mark jenkinson, the conservative party, 20,000. Applause 20,488. Jill perry, green party, 596. David walker, brexit party, 1749. Therefore Mark Jenkinson 596. David walker, brexit party, 1749. Therefore markjenkinson is duly elected as the member of parliament for the workington constituency. Thats a very significant result from workington, in cumbria. This seat has been held by labour since 1918, except for a small conservative patch in the 19705. So its a very, very strong labour area 19705. So its a very, very strong labourarea in 19705. So its a very, very strong labour area in the past, covers a bit of the lake district. A former steel town on cumbrian coast. But the significance here is notjust the significance here is notjust the fact the conservatives have gained this seat, it is the fact that sue hayman is a key member of Jeremy Corbyns team. She is the shadow environment secretary, she has been the mp here since 2015, and markjenkinson, the gentleman who is speaking who is the new conservative mpfor speaking who is the new conservative mp for workington, is a deputy mp of the council. We are being told that East Kilbride is now about ready to declare. Here of the snp and labour. Is this rutherglen and Hamilton West . In the rutherglen and Hamilton West . In the rutherglen and Hamilton West constituency, i hereby give notice that the total number of votes polled for each candidate was as follows. Margaret ferrier, Scottish National party, 23,775. Labour and cooperative party, 18,545. Janice elizabeth mackay, ukip, 629. Scottish liberal democrats, 2791. Lynne nailon, conservative and eunice, 854. That is quite a win in rutherglen and Hamilton West, Margaret Ferrier being re elected on 20 3000, 775 it 23,775 being re elected on 20 3000, 775 it 23,775 votes. Conservatives in third place on some 8000 votes. 66 turnout, a majority of over 5000, so look at the share. 44 to the snp, 34 to labour, and you look at the change and the boost to the snp support, labour down three, the tories down five. That plus seven is interesting. A 5. 1 swing from labour to the snp. That i am being told is not quite as big as the exit poll was suggesting, though lets not beat about the bush, it is clearly a very resounding victory for the snp clearly a very resounding victory forthe snp in clearly a very resounding victory for the snp in rutherglen and Hamilton West. Lets begin our scotla nd Hamilton West. Lets begin our scotland editor, sarah smith, in edinburgh. A response to that first result, and what do you think is likely to happen to that snp performance as the night goes on . Well, the snp will be much cheered by this because they have been finding it difficult to believe the exit poll, that they really could win 55 seats. They have all been telling us to take it with a pinch of salt. But they are confident their vote is going to go up, and thats going to have some really serious consequences if that is repeated across the country, and particularly once we start to see the seats where it is an snp tory tossup, and the conservatives are not able to hold onto many seats in this country. That will tell us two things, that when the snp said to the scottish voters support us if you want another referendum on Scottish Independence, the scots turned out and voted in favour of that proposition, but also that scotla nd that proposition, but also that scotland and the rest of the uk are moving in totally different directions. That while england is increasing its vote for the conservatives, it is going down in scotland, where people are turning to the snp. It was a real risk for the nationalists to go into this election saying it is about independence, because that can galvanise unionists to get behind the conservatives. If that hasnt happened, it is going to look like there is a really resolute mandate for the snp to say we want another referendum on independence. We know what Boris Johnsons referendum on independence. We know what borisjohnsons responses going to be that. He has made it very clear, he will say absolutely not. So that puts us on a constitutional collision course, and the snps argument throughout this campaign has been, look, however scotland votes, it doesnt get the government it voted for in westminster. That shows the westminster system is broken. Well, these results might demonstrate that they were right about that to many scottish voters, and if Boris Johnson about that to many scottish voters, and if borisjohnson persists in refusing another referendum he runs the risk of driving more people in scotla nd the risk of driving more people in scotland towards the independence because, because there are even labourfigures here because, because there are even labour figures here tonight saying it is undemocratic to refuse another referendum if the snp get 50 or more seats tonight. John curtice is telling us that they were expecting the snp to pick up this seat quite easily, with the 13 point increase, iam easily, with the 13 point increase, i am talking about rutherglen, obviously. 13 point increase and a 14 drop in the labour share. In the event, says 14 drop in the labour share. In the event, sastohn, 14 drop in the labour share. In the event, says john, the 14 drop in the labour share. In the event, sastohn, the snp is up by seven Percentage Points, labour by three, an indication that the exit poll may well have exaggerated the size of the snp advance, and that really is reflecting what you were saying earlier about the snps slight nervousness, i suppose, about where they will end up at the end of the evening, though clearly in a very strong position. Yes, they dont think they are going to get 55 out of the 59 seats in scotland, and where it will really matter is in the 13 seats that are held by the conservatives, in all of which the snp are second. Usually there is not a very big margin between them, either. This is why the exit poll is so difficult for scotland. The majorities here are tiny. But if we do see a lot of those conservative seats falling to the snp, which is what we thought at the start of the campaign, but right up until this afternoon there were tories who were fairly confident that they were going to keep ten seats in scotland, if they cant do that, if they are losing out to the snp, that is what is going to make it really obvious that scotland just votes very differently from the rest of the uk, and allow the snp to make the argument that scotland therefore doesnt belong in the uk. Good to talk to you. We will be back later. Thanks very much. Scotland editor. Jenny chapman, shes been the labour mp since 2010, she has lost the seat, and peter gibson, he is in as the mp for darlington and the turnout, 66 , a majority of over 3000. It has been in tory hands before, sir michael fallon, the former defence secretary, was the mp former defence secretary, was the mp for the tories in the 805 and early 905 but it has been labour since 1992. It is now conservative again, 48 of the vote to them and 40 to labour. The swing this time from labour. The swing this time from labour to tory 7. 5 . The darlington result from county durham, again, a conservative gain from labour, that is the story of the night. Quick word, laura . Interesting, the story of the night has been in the north east of england and through the campaign, moving around the country, clearly the tories point was brexit message has been picking up was brexit message has been picking up and finding favour in the north east of england tories. It will be interesting to see if that is repeated where the tories needed to do well, whether in the midlands marginals or seats like newcastle under lyme, ashfield, around notts. The north east certainly seems to have gone for Boris Johnsons offer of certainly seems to have gone for borisjohnsons offer of cracking on, leaving the eu and also talking about easing off the spending squeeze a little bit. That doesnt mean at this stage other parts of the country are going to go for that approach too. Thoughts on that, heidi and aaron, you are chatting earlier but ill pick up on this now weve had a few more results. Your perspective on the conservative performance, given your experience of conservative politics in the past, im wondering where you think places like darlington fit into this picture . What are they telling you about the way the conservative party has reached into these areas . What it is telling me is more what has worried me, and people have alluded to this already on the programme tonight. This is a brexit election now, what about next time . If the tories were really interested in areas like darlington, they would have dealt with the five week wait on universal credit and they dont understand the impact of austerity and how those people live and i think they will regret that vote, especially with a ha rd regret that vote, especially with a hard exit or a no deal brexit, manufacturing will fall apart up there. Looking at the snp vote for, lets say goodbye to the United Kingdom. Heidi, they understood it so badly that they have had a landslide stop it is a vote, it is not the reality of a conservative government. Remainers in parliament try to defeat this vote and this is a reaction to trying to overturn a democratic vote. You can say what you like, but the people have spoken. 17. 4 million have come out and voted in huge numbers, massive turnout, and, you know, you have lost stop the my fear isnt about the brexit or the remain dynamic, my worry is what it will feel like for those people and a conservative government who have no care for the impact of poverty on those peoples lives. Yes, the conservatives have done brilliantly. That is my worry, they havent experienced it. So you there will be a backlash . Unless the tory party shifts remarkably and becomes this one nation dream that people like me thought had disappeared, talk of putting up school funding. Marvellous, some of us have been talking about that for yea rs us have been talking about that for years dealing with poverty and having a message for people in those constituencies who are struggling, where the tory party when they needed them and they are voting for ambrosio. These are the people that used to vote for mrs thatcher and now they are voting in huge numbers and delivered a massive majority. Whos to say this is not a vote, as some suggested, a vote to reject Jeremy Corbyn. Some suggested, a vote to reject Jeremy Corbyn. Theres an element of that. The anti semitism, the nationalisation of whole industries, trotskyite economic policies, its obviously pretty harmful. So its not all about brexit, is it . ee, not all about brexit, is it . agree, but im saying that you have to say people like heidi have spent 3. 5 years trying to overturn a democratic vote and the people didnt like that. Worth staying on that point, ken livingstone, who has been tangled up in the claims around labours handling of anti semitism, says it looks like the m4 jeremy, im sure he will have to resign tomorrow. Ken livingstone had to fight allegations about his anti semitic views saying the jewish vote wasnt very helpful. A lot of eye brows vote wasnt very helpful. A lot of eyebrows shooting up in the labour party saying that, but he is saying Jeremy Corbyn is going to have to resign, one of his oldest allies. Heidi, what is to say that Boris Johnson might not be able to be in a different conservative party . He has changed in a lot in the last few months, by your own admission, kicking people out and making it not somewhere you would feel comfortable having been a conservative before but is there any chance he will become the bootstraps kind of tory . We will wait and see, wont we . Dont get me wrong, nothing would please me more than there being changes to the welfare system, for example, to support people in poorer constituencies. I would love for them to be absolutely proven wrong, but you take people as you find them and his track record so far, the fa ct and his track record so far, the fact he wasnt interested in listening to issues around universal credit and i have no evidence to say he will change his position but i would be delighted if he does, because its about what the people need, not the party. I think s done a rattling good job and hes won. Signs are hes won a decent majority, no question stopjarrow, a labour hold, a labour to conservative swing of 11. 5 so saying the swing in east jarrow and tyne wear is underlining the pattern for us. Talking of swing, why dont wejoin pattern for us. Talking of swing, why dont we join jeremy, pattern for us. Talking of swing, why dont we joinjeremy, who can give us a graphic illustration of whats going on with the swingometer. Well, its that moment, isnt it . Weve gotjust about enough results now to have a look the bbc swingometer and to see whats happening, and it is very dramatic. This is to remind you that the swingometer simply shows you one party in relation to another, if they stay exactly as they were last time then the arrow is vertical like that, but if you imagine a head to head race between two parties, swing shows you where the votes are going and here we have the labour conservative swingometer. Were going to look at actual swing in the 20 whose results weve had, and, as in the 20 whose results weve had, and, as i say, it is dramatic because it is right above 7 . Now, you will see the dots on the swingometer, each dot is a seat and the dots are placed at the position that relates to the swing needed for the seek to change hands. If that was to be the average uniform swing across the country, if it happened in every seat, all of these red dots from here would be coloured blue as the conservatives push into labour territory. Thats a very, very big swing by the conservatives. Lets just see what the share of the vote is doing. Here youll see that labours share has dropped dramatically. In fact, the big story really here is that labours vote has simply fallen through the floor, down 11 on last time. By contrast, despite the dramatic nature of this result and how well the conservatives are doing in certain constituencies, actually their vote is only 3 up so far as far as we can tell on their vote under theresa may three years ago. Lib dems up about the same amount with nothing to show for it, so the conservative vote has raised a little on average but they are helped by this precipitous decline in the labour vote underJeremy Corbyn. Now, you remember i said swing on average from the 20 seats we have seen so far was above 7 , let see the results on the board. Let me ask the swingometer to pick out the constituencies we have heard from and not many so far. Most are outside the range of the swingometer, but what we can cr darlington and workington, so the swing needed was much less than the conservatives actually got. Virtually weve broken our swingometer with this swing. Havent seen anything like this since 1997 with tony blairs landside against john major where the swing was 10 , and that, 1945. Historically a big swing ina and that, 1945. Historically a big swing in a general election. Right up swing in a general election. Right up here, if we can focus above that, the yellow dot is the snp and rutherglen but the blue dot near the ten, the blue dot is blyth valley, where the 8000 majority was overturned. By contrast, we have nuneaton, a result we have had in, nuneaton, a result we have had in, nuneaton is in a situation where a majority over 10,000 where it is a very safe seat. Two elections ago, nuneaton was one of our most closely fought marginals. The picture is changing but as you know, that is a very big swing to be seeing in a uk general election. Remarkable, jeremy, isnt it . Given previous elections youve looked at, is this the kind of swing that you think will deliver the. I suppose, broadly the solid majority thatjohn curtice and the exit poll were talking about earlier . curtice and the exit poll were talking about earlier . I think it has to. Weve only had 20 seats, and this is the average of those 20, and we will see the swing will change a bit and settle down, but over time we will see it is bound to be above 596 we will see it is bound to be above 5 and it looks likely to be above 6 and that would deliver that majority. We mentioned tony blair with 10 , we dont see this very often. The only other time where i remember the arrow recently breaking the swingometer almost was the snp vote in the 2015 general election where it almost went off the scale, and there was a massive swing to them there. This is very dramatic and if that is sustained through the night, of course it will be a thumping majority. Jeremy, see you later, thank you. Jeremy line, nice to see the swingometer in action. Lindsay hoyle, the speaker of the house of commons, elected a few weeks ago, returned in chorley. Formerly a labour mp but standing as mr speaker this time and safely re elected. Lets look at the state of the parties before we join andrew and his guests again, and they are this we have just had we havejust had one, that was rutherglen, that we saw a short while ago for the snp. Nothing as yet for the rest. Labour on four losses right now and the tories on three gains stop v20 to declared, 628 to go, andrew, so still plenty to talk about three gains. 20 still to be declared, 628 to go. The pound is up. Nicky morgan for the conservatives and mike russell for the snp are still with me. Nicky morgan, if Boris Johnson for the snp are still with me. Nicky morgan, if borisjohnson gets anything like the majority we are looking at, does that mean he is master of all he surveys in the tory party now . Well, as you say, its a question of if at the moment because we havent had many results. Question of if at the moment because we havent had many resultsm question of if at the moment because we havent had many results. It is heading for a majority, a decent one. A good working majority and yes, of course, it makes the Prime Minister able to be in command of the legislative agenda but it doesnt mean it is plain sailing because any chief whip knows you have to work with your mp5 because any chief whip knows you have to work with your mps in order to get legislation through. Of course it also strengthens the hand internationally as well, because people are able to that the Prime Minister is able to get his legislation through in a way we havent seen for the last years, which is why we have the election. When it comes to the negotiations after we, i assume, when it comes to the negotiations afterwe, iassume, leave when it comes to the negotiations after we, i assume, leave now at the end of january, formally, after we, i assume, leave now at the end ofjanuary, formally, but then we enter a transition period and nothing changes, to quote a former conservative party minister, the negotiations then are the future relationship. Does this strengthen his hand if he can go so minded for a hard brexit, or does it mean he can ignore the hardliners. More hardline on brexit and go for a softer brexit and still get it through . I minister wants the best civil trading agreement he can get with the eu i think the Prime Minister. Theres a for that, those. This hasnt really been discussed very much in the campaign theres a price for that, though. This hasnt been discussed but we can talk about it now. The more friction free he wants our relation to be with the eu, the more the eu will say fine, but you need to stay largely aligned with our rules stop what does he do . That will be a big negotiating point with our rules stop the what does he do . All the departments will have their input into that. The Prime Minister is very clear, he realises that one of the big things obviously about the country, the last 3. 5 years, are the divisions and we know differences of views in the conservative party but i dont think he will want to say im going to go this way and ignore these people and ignore that group of mps and go this way, he realises the need and hes talked about this to try to build bridges. understand that but i want to know which way he will go given he has this substantial majority. Let me come back to mike russell, the two main, clear winners tonight are the conservatives in england and the Scottish National party north of the border, which would suggest to me we are heading for a constitutional stand off. We been in a constitutional crisis for the last two to three years. I have been as you know the person negotiating with the Scottish Government and the uk government. This difficulty and has widened completely. The point you make about what happens next is crucial to that as well, because within the discussion of the level Playing Field and what would take place, the eu has been very clear it does not wa nt eu has been very clear it does not want what it regards as unfair competition on its border. But there is also no agreement of how scotlands devolved interests are represented by the uk government. You could put them into a variety of industrial areas, you could put them into fishing, agriculture, but other sectors in which those are fully devolved areas. There is no hierarchy of governments in devolution. There is only a hierarchy of parliament. There is not going to be a friction free arrangement between london and edinburgh. Indeed, Boris Johnson will be mrfriction, i have edinburgh. Indeed, Boris Johnson will be mr friction, i have to say, in all of this. We have another declaration coming. Let me go back to huw. I think we are looking at a result from the vale of clwyd. The numberof result from the vale of clwyd. The number of votes for each candidate at the election was as follows. Peter dain, brexit party, 1477. James davies, welsh conservative Party Candidate, 17,270. Chris ruane, welsh labour, 15,443. Chris gavin ruane, welsh labour, 15,443. Chris gavin scott, ruane, welsh labour, 15,443. Chris gavin scott, welsh liberal democrats, 1471. Glenn swingler, plaid cymru, the party of wales, 1552. So the returning officer declaring in welsh and english in the vale of clwyd, conservative gain. Lets look at these figures just to underline what is going on. An area of wales that the conservatives are very big hopes of making gains, and this is indeed again. Long standing labour mp chris ruane has been defeated and local conservative mp plaid cymru has taken the seat. He has taken 46 of the vote to 41 for labour, and that means that labour has dipped from 2017 by nine Percentage Points and the tories are by two Percentage Points local mp james the tories are by two Percentage Points local mpjames davies. When you look at the incursion of the brexit party is well into that labour vote, it is enough to give that seats to the conservatives on a 5. 5 swing from labour to the tories. A quick word, laura . That seatis tories. A quick word, laura . That seat is somewhere that they will be seeing the pattern outside the north east of england they were hoping to see across england. It also looks in the last few minutes like the conservatives have taken back peterbrough, a traditional bellwether place, the kind of place that parties wanting to get solid majorities have to win. It sounds like they have taken that back from the labour party. Lets talk to the labour party chair, ian labrie. Thank you very much for waiting to talk to us. What are your thoughts 03 54 35,851 4294966103 13 29,430 on how labour is doing tonight