Transcripts For BBCNEWS Outside Source 20240714

The vote will take place in around 20 minutes. Well be bringing you all the live coverage from the house of commons. A warm welcome to westminster. Borisjohnson has suffered another defeat. Mps in the house of commons have passed a bill which seeks to stop a no deal brexit and delay britains departure from the eu. Heres the moment in parliament. Ayes to the right 327, the noes to the left, 299. The ayes to the right 327, the noes to the left 299, so the ayes have it, the ayes have it. Unlock. A third defeat for Boris Johnson it, the ayes have it. Unlock. A third defeat for borisjohnson in 24 hour is. The labour mp and chair of the Brexit Select Committee hilary benn was the first to his feet and welcomed the result. The house has spoken this evening, and if the other place passes the bill, then i say to the Prime Minister that this house expects him to uphold the law and to fulfil the obligations that will be placed upon him by the spell and prevent this country from leaving the European Union on the 31st of october without a deal. Heroes Boris Johnsons response. The house of commons has passed a bill devised by the leader of the opposition, who i see is not in his place, he is characteristically evasive if not frit, mr speaker. It is a billthat ends the negotiations, a bill that demands an extension until at least next year and perhaps for many more years to come, and a bill that insists britain acquiesce to the demands of muscles and hands control to our partners. It is a bill designed to overturn the biggest democratic vote in our history, the 2016 referendum. And it is therefore a bill without precedent in the history of this house, seeking as it does to force the Prime Minister with a pre drafted letter to surrender in international negotiations. The Prime Minister speaking just a short time ago, lets show you the live pictures from the house of commons. Bernard jenkin is the conservative brexiteer on his feet at the moment. There we re on his feet at the moment. There were 90 minutes down for this debate. We should get a vote on the Prime Ministers motion sometime around 9 30pm uk time. With me here is the director of the independent think tank and a Senior Editor at the economist, and a warm welcome to you both. Let me start with you. It doesnt look like borisjohnson will get his wishes this evening. I was thinking yesterday he had had a reasonably good start to his premiership, a good g7. Parliament has been back three days and he has been defeated three times. And what is the clue to that . Parliament is back. That is a classic example of a Prime Minister who came in, his messaging was very clear, he was there to deliver brexit, the narrative seemed to be more likely it was going to be done or dusted whether one likes it or not by 31st of october. Once parliament was back and had in a way cross that rubicon, and had in a way cross that rubicon, and john bercow as the speaker was happy to allow that, of letting parliament kind of rip as an anti no deal device, i think since then we have seen much more of a tussle, the Prime Minister defeated a couple of times. His aim is to take the action away from parliament as soon as he can manage to do that, and he is therefore trying to push this general election as the means by which he takes the argument to Jeremy Corbyn and the country. And Jeremy Corbyn and the country. And Jeremy Corbyn and the country. And Jeremy Corbyn is not going to fall for the elephant trap, at the at least not yet, but how long seriously can he resist a general election . I think there are a series of elephant traps Jeremy Corbyn wisely hasnt fallen into from his point of view to the first one, but it is very difficult, quite odd for Jeremy Corbyn who has been calling day in, day out for an election really, since the last one, to say 110w really, since the last one, to say now i dont want one. He can only spin that out a certain amount of timei spin that out a certain amount of time i think. Borisjohnson made a quite interesting but possibly a tactical blunder on monday by going out in front of downing street, people thought he was going to announce a general election, then he said you dont want one, i dont wa nt said you dont want one, i dont want one, that was clearly a way of saying but we are going to have to have one but the question is who wins on the dates, and at the moment thatis wins on the dates, and at the moment that is what this tassle is about. I think borisjohnson that is what this tassle is about. I think Boris Johnson feels that is what this tassle is about. I think borisjohnson feels he cannot offer an extension, even if he was to get the general election. So he has kind of worked himself into a small corner of the chessboard. Jeremy corbyn cant continue to say iam foran Jeremy Corbyn cant continue to say i am for an election, and notjust this kind of election, like Saint Augustine said, make me virtuous but not yet. At some point he will have to say, it is time to take his risk on the election. The only people busier than the vote counters is you, you have a new report out. A lot of research gone into it, an independent, apolitical view of what no deal is. The top line is uncertainty, both political and economic that will haunt us in the event of a no deal brexit and the other thing worth saying is what we argue in the report is there is nothing clean about no deal. It is very, very messy indeed. What it will condemn us to is years, possibly even a decade of arduous, fraught, bad tempered negotiations with the European Union, because were going to have to settle a relationship with them one way or another and doing it after no deal will be far more difficult than doing it any other way. What would november the 1st look like if we did leave without a deal . This is the interesting thing. Day one may not be as bad as a lot of people said, because businesses will get stockpiles and so they dont have to trade necessarily on that day, people have made arrangements, people have made arrangements, people might not be travelling, it isa people might not be travelling, it is a Public Holiday across most of continental europe. On france it means lorries arent allowed on motorways, so there will be far less traffic than normal, so november one could be ok, it might be relatively minor disruption but as things go back to normal, as the czechs and the controls on the terrace come into play, we will see serious disruption, whatever the government does and whatever it spends because of two things. One, there is good evidence that businesses and particularly Small Businesses just havent made the preparations they need to make Small Businesses havent registered for their economic operator number, havent filled in the customs forms, arent ready, and crucially, to really mitigate no deal we need the eu to play ball, and this is worth stressing, there are no mini deals with the European Union. The European Union has put in place a series of unilateral measures because it wants flights to fly, it wants lorries to be able to cross the channel easily, but it has had quite clearly these are for us, they are not bilateral with you, and we will remove them as soon as we possibly can without consulting you. 0k, possibly can without consulting you. Ok, another £2 billion from the chancellor today for preparedness. Here is the governor of the bank of england today, told a Treasury Select Committee that the potential impact to the economy of a no deal brexit is now less severe, his words, due to preparations made since the end of 2018. Well, i suppose less severe than it would be if none had been made. I do sometimes wonder if the government doesnt kind of state the obvious, but there you are. I think what he is trying to do, he is seen as a bit ofa is trying to do, he is seen as a bit of a fear monger, lets call it out, andi of a fear monger, lets call it out, and i think what he is trying to say isi and i think what he is trying to say is i understand that government is trying to mitigate the potential damage, as you havejust trying to mitigate the potential damage, as you have just described what i might look like straightaway, let alone as things go on, and obviously friction tends to build up over time. He is certainly right. The government has taken this much more seriously. Yes, there is money on the table. If you are spending a lot of money but you have to get that back because trade is flowing freely and you have to minimise the damage and then it is money well spent. The difficulty is anything to do with the bureaucracy, however much money you pump intimate it is not actually clear what comes out in what time frame, and that is the worry i would say. If one has to make a point the other side, if i could quickly, a lot of people have created so much fear about what no deal would look like, will there be olives in the shops, as a friend said to me. It may not be like that, but i think it is more the build up, the silting up of the trade system thatis the silting up of the trade system that is my big worry. You are not saying the economy is not going to grow in the medium term. There are all sorts of things, one is that that government can do to mitigate no deal, there is a bit of fiscal headroom, they can do it to do all sorts of things, incentives and tax cuts for Small Businesses, all sorts of things you can do to mitigate the impact. But at the end of the day, whatever mark carney said today, i dont think as yet the government has revisited its own forecast which theyin has revisited its own forecast which they in 15 years, all things being equal, being in a no deal situation will make the economy 8 smaller thanit will make the economy 8 smaller than it would otherwise have been. That is a massive number. It doesnt mean the economy will stop growing but it means there will be a negative impact on are the economy. The counterargument would be it would be offset if you got amazing deals elsewhere. That is not credible for the simple reason that geography matters. If you slashed every single tariff we have with the United States it would amount to about 0. 4 of our gdp in terms of. You need your Major Trading partner. You need your Major Trading partner. You need your closest trading partner. Thank you for the moment. We are watching events in the house of commons, they are still debating the Prime Ministers motion, lets go to de rossi in the studio. Borisjohnson has Boris Johnson has failed borisjohnson has failed to prevent this bill which will intervene to prevent a no deal brexit and the Prime Minister wasted no time in responding. He proposed the houseboat on the issue of a general election and as christian has been telling us, the vote will be very soon telling us, the vote will be very soon indeed. If you werent watching a little bit earlier, this is the argument the Prime Minister made. There must now be an election on tuesday the 15th of october, and i invite the right honourable gentleman to respond to decide which of us goes as Prime Minister to that crucial council on thursday 17th october. Think its very sad that mps have voted like this, but if im still. I do, mps have voted like this, but if im still. Ido, i mps have voted like this, but if im still. I do, ithink mps have voted like this, but if im still. I do, i think its a great dereliction of their democratic duty, mr speaker, but if i am still Prime Minister after tuesday the of october, then we will leave on 31st of october with, i hope, a much better deal. 50 Boris Johnson wants mps to support the snap election but he needs the support of two thirds of them to get his wish. While the opposition liberal democrats have been very clear, jo swinson their leader tweeted today the lib dems andi leader tweeted today the lib dems and i will act responsibly, we will not vote to tip our country into an election if it increases the likelihood of a dangerous no deal brexit. So the lib dems are against. Jeremy corbyn isnt supporting this either. The offer of the election todayis either. The offer of the election today is a bit like the offer of an apple to snow white and the wicked queen. Because what he is offering is not an apple or even an election but the poison of a no deal. 50, mr speaker, i repeat, repeat what said la st speaker, i repeat, repeat what said last night, let this bill pass and gain royal assent, then we will back an election so we do not crash out with a no deal exit from the European Union. Vicki young is in the lobby inside the palace of westminster. Good to speak to you again. On this issue of labours position, it doesnt want an election at the same time as the Prime Minister does, so when does it wa nt Prime Minister does, so when does it wantan Prime Minister does, so when does it want an election . Labour are in a bit of a bind and not totally agreed on it. They have been saying various things over the last couple of things. What they are saying is of course they want a general election. They have been saying that publicly for a very long time. Theirfear, though, is that the election would mean actually that they are not taking no deal of the table. So they wa nt to taking no deal of the table. So they want to make sure that this bill has gone through all its stages here at the house of commons and has become law so that the Prime Minister, whoever the Prime Minister is to ask for a delay to brexit. They want that to be absolutely nailed down, if you like, before they go into a general election. But there are other labour mps who say we cant possibly be in a position where we are certainly not voting for a general election, but they are not going to vote for it tonight so it wont get through but they could be other options further down the line, in the next few days, it may well be the government come forward with another way of calling an election, and if that bill has gone through by then, then who knows . Labour may well pack it. But it has put them in a pretty tricky position. Lets speak to Stephen Kinnock, labour mp, who is going to explain to us what on earth was going on early in the house of commons, because we were all house of commons, because we were a ll totally house of commons, because we were all totally perplexed. Just explain, you were trying to amend this and he no deal bill, and it went through, that change, what does it mean . Yes, so our that change, what does it mean . Yes, so ouramendment that change, what does it mean . Yes, so our amendment was that change, what does it mean . Yes, so our amendment was to ensure that the extension that would come as a result of the hilary benn bill should have a very clear, defined purpose, and that purpose should be to pass the Withdrawal Agreement bill. Now, that is not what failed to pass under theresa may, it is the result of the cross party talks that labour was calling for for well, at least two years, actually, and theresa may finally made those talks happen, but then labour pulled out of the talks, and nevertheless the government announced the concessions that they had made, the commitment to the clarity on the future relationship, and we feel that thats a really strong compromise, so our thats a really strong compromise, so ouramendment thats a really strong compromise, so our amendment was thats a really strong compromise, so our amendment was saying 0k, thats a really strong compromise, so our amendment was saying ok, if we re so our amendment was saying ok, if were going to have an extension, lets not use itjust to kick the can down the road. That is the criticism, a pointless, meaningless delay to Brexit Borisjohnson talks about. But of course that will upset some of your colleagues who want a second referendum. Yes, but they have to decide they want to vote for an extension which is predicated on having a deal or do they want to block having an extension at all just because they are so hell bent on having a second referendum . Well, if they end up preventing an extension at all, they are facilitating a no deal crash out. So it would be on them to do that. What happened quite bizarrely this evening is we put our amendment forward , evening is we put our amendment forward, labour was whipped to abstain on the amendment. I understand that the conservatives we re understand that the conservatives were whipped to abstain on the amendment as well, but we, of course, those pushing the amendment organised for our own tellers, who are the people that count the votes as you come through in the yes lobby, so everybody was voting yes going through there, and it then emerged that there were no tellers in the no lobby. And if there are no tellers in the no lobby, the yes lobby wins, and so by default we won in extremely peculiar circumstances. So it has gone through. Some people in your party says it doesnt mean anything, it is completely meaningless, it doesnt actually meaningless, it doesnt actually mean any kind of withdrawal deal has to come back. Well, if you read the amendment carefully, it says very clearly that the Prime Minister must use the extension in order to pass the Withdrawal Agreement bill. That means that they must now publish the Withdrawal Agreement bill and they must bring it to parliament, we must vote on it. And it was striking in the chamber when vote on it. And it was striking in the chamberwhenl vote on it. And it was striking in the chamber when i spoke to explain my amendment and to seek support for it how much cross Party Support there was, because there is i think a strong there was, because there is i think a strong consensus across there was, because there is i think a strong consensus across the house that we need to leave the European Union, but we need to leave it on the basis of a deal, and the Withdrawal Agreement bill is actually the only one that is there to go and has been agreed with the European Union. Lets move on to the general election, we are going to have a vote very soon actually. Your party is all over the place on this, isnt it . I mean, youve been calling for a general election for two years at least but tonight you are abstaining. Whats going on . Yes, i think we are very concerned if we facilitated a general election we could also be facilitating a no deal crash out, because Boris Johnson could use the election as a trojan horse to smuggle our country out of the European Union in the middle of an Election Campaign, he could play around with the dates, he could play around with the dates, he could have a date of polling day after exit day on 31st of october, and that leads to a crash out. Our numberone and that leads to a crash out. Our number one strategic priority has been to prevent a no deal crash out, so we been to prevent a no deal crash out, so we cant really enable that by voting for a general election. So our view is lets get the hilary benn bill over the line, it has passed now in the commons by a convincing majority, it is now in the lords, lets get that through and as soon as it is true then we are ready to have a general election. Ok, Stephen Kinnock, thanks very much indeed. More bizarre twists and turns going on in the house of commons tonight. Active house of commons where bob seely, the tory mp for the isle of wight, is speaking, getting towards the end of this debate now on whether to have an early general election. What happened when they go to the people. We need a new parliament, mr speaker, because we need a government with a mandate and a parliament that votes for something positive. From now on a collection of Opposition Mps should be known frankly mr speaker as a shambles, because we offer leadership. What they offer, god knows. Thank you. Lloyd russell moyle. They offer, god knows. Thank you. Lloyd russellmoyle. Thank you, mr speaker. What the Prime Minister has put to us is clearly a poisoned chalice. He is like the schoolroom clown who thinks that he can offer something to us, dancing around, blathering from the dispatch box, but we know who he is. He is a man who has been twice sacked for lying. He clearly is a person that we cannot trust, and we therefore. Order, order. The honourable gentleman is referring to parts of a members career, i dont think he is making any allegation, i sincerely hope he isnt, if youll let me finish. I hope he isnt making any allegation about the conduct of a member in this chamber, and he isnt, and therefore he is not out of order, he is not out of order, i know the rules and i know how to interpret them, i dont require any guidance from anybody on that matter, in very clear about that, but what i would say to the honourable gentleman is there is much to be said for moderation in the use of parliamentary language, and as somebody who likes the honourable gentleman i would urge him to be a little more courteous. Honourable gentleman i would urge him to be a little more courteouslj will him to be a little more courteous. will correct myself and say he was allegedly sacked for lying twice, and the public. The question is that there should be an early parliamentary general election, as many of that opinion say aye. 0f parliamentary general election, as many of that opinion say aye. Of the contrary no. Adjourned, clear the lobby. So there we go, that is the end of the debate on the Prime Ministers motion on a general election. Just to remind you, for this to go through under the terms of the fixed term parliaments act, the Prime Minister requires two thirds of the vote in the house of commons. We have heard from labour and the snp that they are not going to support this bill tonight, and so it looks as if hes going to be short of the votes. It will probably take about ten minutes for them to go through the lobby. Two thirds of mps, just to remind you, is 434. The total m ps mps, just to remind you, is 434. The total mps in the housejust mps, just to remind you, is 434. The total mps in the house just without labour is 403. So you can see without labours support, hes not going to get his way, at least not this evening. Anne mcelvoy from the economist and anam men from uk and a changing europe are still with me. Coming back to that very interesting point Stephen Kinnock was making, this was an amendment put to the bill taking no deal of the table this evening. Boris johnson bill taking no deal of the table this evening. Borisjohnson has been saying another extension is pointless, more prevarication, Stephen Kinnock saying through his amendment, no, we need to pass the Withdrawal Agreement bill in that three months period. What does that mean . Well, i think there are a lot of labour mps at the moment who are regretting the way things panned out in march and april. They are regretting the fact they didnt vote for a Withdrawal Agreement that was on the table, because they are starting to realise that if they dont vote for a deal, you have two choices, either revoke article 50 or leave with no deal, and they want to live but they want to live with the deal. In the important point, that come you cant take no deal of the table. It is the worlds biggest table. It is the worlds biggest table and everything are still on it until parliament decides not what it doesnt want but what it can sustain a majority for. And it hasnt done it. But to be clear, the Withdrawal Agreement bill puts into british law the Withdrawal Agreement agreed with europe, and at the moment we dont have a Withdrawal Agreement agreed with europe i know it is sounding a bit of lewis carol, but i think what Stephen Kinnock is trying to put on the metaphorical table, start to put out there and see if it flies, is that feeling that if there was a wormhole back to the days, march, april, but even beyond then, when we had to theresa may getting increasingly frustrated and the third Withdrawal Agreement was kind of shelf because it wasnt going through, and you imagine how many people now on the labour side would now think, on balance, you know, it might bea now think, on balance, you know, it might be a tory Withdrawal Agreement but i would rather do it than risk no deal. I think there is a good chanceit no deal. I think there is a good chance it would have passed. I suppose what he was trying to say was, if you think that, why not have agoat was, if you think that, why not have a go at it . And yes, it is very complicated, because the timeline is so short, because there is much more bitterness and division in the house and we saw that in what has happened this week. And because the two front benches are opposed to it and would whip against it. Theyre absolutely, the irony is that Boris Johnson who voted for the Withdrawal Agreement third time of asking would have to whip his mps against it. He would end up whipping against himself. It is interesting you say that about the labour side. I think i would be fair minded to say they are quite changeable what they support and what they dont at the moment, because really what they are trying to do is sort of figure out what the general election timing should be that would benefit them and at the same time, youve got a leadership which havent really committed unambiguous lead to a second referendum, you have a lot of splits in the party about what theyre trying to do. But i would guess there was quite a lot of interest in this on the labour benches, and that there are those who will always just be loyal to Jeremy Corbyn, what he says goes, and john mcdonnell, but there are probably a lot of people beginning to make noises saying, im really worried about this on the grounds that you could end up with no deal by accident, and without the majority to revoke either. So i think Stephen Kinnock is onto something. Can those mps oppose the second referendum question ate something. Can those mps oppose the second referendum question at a lot of labour mps dont want a second referendum. There are certainly a lot of labour opinion in the country for a second referendum, i dont wa nt to for a second referendum, i dont want to be saying i havent had that, but there are so many labour mps who really are worried about the impact, particularly in these seats but not only. Labour is also a party thatis but not only. Labour is also a party that is supposed to be very responsive to what a lot of ordinary voters feel and think. Second referendum tend to be people who are already very commenced to start with, and often from a different demographic. And it becomes all the more important given what Boris Johnson has done since he became Prime Minister, which is basically to lash money around some of those northern, labourvoting, to lash money around some of those northern, labour voting, lead to lash money around some of those northern, labourvoting, lead voting seats. They are going to be a battle ground, and the fear for some of those mps is if we seem to be backing away from the brexit these constituents voted for while the Prime Minister is basically love bombing them, or at least cash bombing them, or at least cash bombing them, or at least cash bombing them, that could be problems ahead. You will know as a boy from wakefield nobody is going to regret money coming this way in the north. Iam from money coming this way in the north. I am from county durham, he is a southerner there you go, thats me in my place i will put you on the spot, you take the tories, you take labour, what is on the tory ma nifesto . Labour, what is on the tory manifesto . The tory manifesto is whatever we have had to do to get to the point of a vote, a general election, if you vote for us, we will deliver brexit, no ifs, no buts. Now over to you, Jeremy Corbyn, what do you want . You see, i got the harder question here. You have, because labour has been trying to straddle between the two. Have, because labour has been trying to straddle between the twom depends a lot on what happens in conference, which will play a role in setting the manifesto and labour policy. There will be massive pressure for an official statement ina document pressure for an official statement in a document saying we are going to have a referendum. Labour at this point have to say whatever brexit deal there is they will be a referendum on it. Whether they go further and say referendum on it. Whether they go furtherand say in referendum on it. Whether they go further and say in that referendum our position will be, i doubt they will to be honest, but a lot can change up to and including. They cant get through a general Election Campaign without saying that, do we agree . Yes. So very simply, do we get a black and white choice on brexit, remain versus leave . No, i think it will be leave or have a second referendum. The irony is we will have a referendum on a deal i might have negotiate because i will be Prime Minister, then it will be curious to say to the british people ever you recommend against my deal. We had richard and he said that exactly last night. There is still in some parts of the labour party a confused picture. Thank you again very much. This bill was put forward by the labour mp hilary benn with the backing of a number of opposition parties, and a group of now former conservative mps, and thatis now former conservative mps, and that is why we have got this vote on a general election this evening. We are waiting for the result. Let me hand you back to de rossi. We have this vote on whether to have a general election because early in the day the government and the Prime Minister was defeated and trying to oppose a deal brought by hilary benn, the opposition labour mp to ros. This is the full can find it online if you want to be the whole thing, it is intended to stop the government leaving the European Union without a deal. It also requests the brexit deadline is pushed back three months if there is no deal between the eu and the uk by october 19. Thats important, because it comes just after a European Union summit. That would mean we would have a new brexit deadline of january 31, mean we would have a new brexit deadline ofjanuary 31, 2020. However, lets be clear, that first of all requires us getting to october 19 without a deal being agreed. Also, the uk doesnt get to decide this, this is a matterfor the European Union. The uk makes the request but the eu could refuse the request but the eu could refuse the request or comeback with an alternative date. One the detail, this bill actually details the wording the Prime Minister must use when he is writing to the president of the european council, donald tusk, to ask for this delay. But remember Boris Johnson has repeatedly said in no circumstances will he ask for a delay, so it is farfrom will he ask for a delay, so it is far from clear who would actually send this letter. Well, earlier on hilary benn made the case for his bill. The Prime Minister talks about getting it done, and ending the uncertainty, but the truth is, and the honourable member made the point so powerfully, no deal does not end anything. It would simply plunge us into greater uncertainty of all, uncertainty. Im going to bring my remarks to a close. Uncertainty about the degree and length of disruption, uncertainty about the border arrangements in Northern Ireland, uncertainty about what our future relationship, trading relationship would be without biggest, nearest and most important trading partners, the other member is the European Union. Philip hammond was a supporter of the bill, the former chancellor. Hes been expelled from the conservatives for voting against the Prime Minister yesterday. He spoke earlier. The purpose of the bill, most of us will have no truck with the concept of a vote of no confidence. The purpose of the bill is to instruct this government and this administration how to conduct the uk pass future arrangements with the uk pass future arrangements with the European Union. It is not an attempt to remove this government. It is certainly not a attempt to hand power to the leader of the opposition. Mr speaker, it not ask who are hiding the risk of a government led by the opposition, it is my right honourable friend who is pursuing a course of action that if unchallenged may lead to a no deal brexit. Until a few weeks ago mr hammond was on the front bench of the government. Someone who is the brexit minister, stephen barclay. The principle of the bill, in terms of seeking an extension, is wrong and the government opposes the second rating and we will oppose it at third reading and it is so flawed, we havent bothered tabling amendments to it because we oppose it in all forms. The bill cannot be improved because it goes against the democratic wishes of the british people, of the votes of 17. 4 million of our citizens, and it goes against the strong desire of many up and down this land who want certainty, who want clarity and want brexit done so we can get onto the wider domestic agenda. This is the house of commons now. We are waiting on an outcome of the vote, brought by the Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, outcome of the vote, brought by the Prime Minister, borisjohnson, who would like a general election to ta ke would like a general election to take place on october the 15th. We think its likely to go against the Prime Minister because he needs to thirds of the commons to be behind him and we know that the labour party says it will whip its mps to oppose that suggestion. Lets bring in vicki young in the lobby of the palace of westminster. One thing im wondering, if labour dont want an election now and they bill has been passed telling the Prime Minister to send a letter asking for a delay but the Prime Minister says he wont ask for a delay, what happens . Thats their fear, for a delay, what happens . Thats theirfear, i think. For a delay, what happens . Thats theirfear, ithink. They for a delay, what happens . Thats theirfear, i think. They fear for a delay, what happens . Thats their fear, i think. They fear Boris Johnson might ignore it. Hes been asked about this several times and has said that we will uphold the law. A Prime Minister not following the law is, you know, unusual. Downing street are doing things differently but that would be quite difficult. The point that labour mps are making is that they dont trust borisjohnson. Youre talking about this particular vote at the moment. It wont be a cliffhanger. Labour are abstaining on this, they arent voting. Looking at the benches, many labour mps have gone home for the night. Conservative mps, minus those who were chucked out yesterday, i saw a couple of them who said they arent voting for an election because it would mean they are out ofa because it would mean they are out of a job. The numbers wont beehive. Youre saying to thirds, they may not even get a simple majority. On this occasion Boris Johnson not even get a simple majority. On this occasion borisjohnson isnt going to get his way. The thing to look out for is whether like last night the Prime Minister or someone else gets up to say what they will do next because thats been the downing street tactic, to keep their opponents on their close, to have a plan to keep their opponents on their toes. The speculation is that they may bring forward. May go down a different route to get a general election. One is to have two thirds of mps to vote for it, which is going to fail. What else can they do . They can bring in a short bill saying, notwithstanding the fixed term parliaments act, well have an election on october the 15th, which would require a simple majority, not to thirds, a simple majority, not to thirds, a simple majority, which is more possible. But the snp and labour, Jeremy Corbyn anyway, have said they will not vote for it. When the anti no deal bill has got through it stages, through the commons and lords, where there are quite a lot of shenanigans going on. Just so i understand, its with the house of lords now. If the lords were to approve the bill, im trying to understand the timetable. How quickly might borisjohnson be obliged to send a letter to donald tusk asking for more time . Thats theissue, tusk asking for more time . Thats the issue, there is no time on it. Thats the point the snp and labour are making. Even when it becomes law. I think were going to a result. The ayes to the right, 298. The noes to the left, 56. One. Laughter the ayes to the right, 298. The noes to the left, 56. So the ayes have it. The house will be aware that the motion has not obtained the majority required under the fixed term parliaments act, 2011. Unlock. Very good, well done. Yes, indeed. Point of order, the Prime Minister. Thank you very much. I note that the leader of the opposition is once again not in his place in what i think is a symbolic way. 48 hour is ago he was leading the chanting of stopping the coup, let the people vote. Now hes saying, stop the election and stop the people from voting i think theres only one solution. I think hes become the first, to my knowledge, the first leader of the opposition in the democratic history of our country to refuse the invitation for an election. I can only speculate as to the reasons behind his hesitation. The obvious conclusion im afraid is that he doesnt think he will win. I urge him, i urge his colleagues to reflect on what i think is the unsustainability of this position, overnight, and in the course of the next few days. Order. The clerk will proceed to read. 0h, very well, point of order. Is there some way off tabling a motion that the house has no confidence in her majestys opposition . Laughter even your laughing . No, im dealing with one point at a time. We will proceed in an ordinary manner. When dealing with one point of order and then i will attend to another. It is evident from the smile on the face of the honourable gentleman that hes very pleased the point he has made. Point of order, mr borisjohnson. Point he has made. Point of order, mr Boris Johnson. Im going to elaborate, this is the first time in history the opposition has voted to Show Confidence in the government. Cheering thank you. Order. The clerk will proceed to read the orders of the day. Animal welfare sentencing bill, not amended. So, there we have it, borisjohnson losing his not amended. So, there we have it, Boris Johnson losing his fourth parliamentary vote. Every vote he has faced he has lost. The numbers, slightly more confusing because on this occasion under the fixed term parliaments act, he had to get to thirds of mps to back the call for an early general election and without the support of labour, who abstained, it was never going to reach the threshold. You could see his reaction, mocking Jeremy Corbyn, who wasnt in the commons. Saying he must be the first leader of the opposition to turn down the chance ofan opposition to turn down the chance of an election. Labour are still arguing amongst themselves about their tactics on this. They want a general election but they dont want it until they are sure that i know deal brexit can be averted. So they are waiting, they say, until the bill, the anti no deal bill that has passed the commons, passes in the lords, which it may do in the next couple of days. Most signal from borisjohnson about couple of days. Most signal from Boris Johnson about what hell do next but what he said to mps, please reflect on how unsustainable the situation is. His point is to say, backbench mps here are really trying to take over, in fact they have taken to take over, in fact they have ta ken over to take over, in fact they have taken over the house of commons but they dont because they dont like what the Prime Minister is doing but they wont allow the Prime Ministera doing but they wont allow the Prime Minister a general election to sort it out. It seems there may be some movement from the government tomorrow but we arent sure what it is at the moment. Opposition mps. To what degree is the Prime Ministers decision to Prorogue Parliament affecting the degree to which they trust him when he makes any promises, whether it is to an election date or Something Else . They say they dont trust him anyway but they particular dont trust him because he said he wouldnt Prorogue Parliament and he did. Last night emily thornberry, a senior labour figure, said that even if it said in law that the general election date is the 15th of october, she doesnt believe it and is worried that he will somehow change it and it will beyond october the 31st that the uk would leave without a deal from the eu during the Election Campaign. So theres no trust and other opposition figures are saying that isnt helping in all of this. The government will turn around and say they are just trying to stop brexit and thats what you heard from Boris Johnson. We are still watching the commons continuing its work but is that the end of the political fireworks for this evening . Yes, it is. It seems a long time ago that we had prior ministers questions John Whittingdale is a senior conservative mp. 50, no election this time around . Mo election for the moment but clearly there will have to be an election soon. We are in an extraordinary position. As the Prime Minister observed, the labour party, having called for an election at every opportunity for the last two years, tonight refusing to support one. And we are now left with a government still in office but with a parliament determined to prevent it carrying out its central policy. I dont see how that is sustainable for long. What other options do the government have to try and force a general election . Well, i think there will have to be an election but the labour party are determined to try and put it off until after the 31st of october. Its nonsense if they say that they dont believe, even if it were in the law, that election will take place on the 15th. They say they cant trust the Prime Minister. But they can trust the law if that is what the law said and there is no way the government could change that. Nevertheless they say that despite their calling for an election, they are now preventing the government from calling one for the government from calling one for the time being. Thank you. Down in the time being. Thank you. Down in the house of lords, well, many of those peers were going in, one had a sleeping bag, one had a massive bangle food to get them through the night, maybe two nights as attempts go on down there by some conservative peers to try and stop the anti no deal bill becoming law massive bag of food. The anti no deal bill becoming law massive bag of food. Thank you, vicki young. Well turn to the house of lords in this story in a moment. Trust is becoming a central theme of this week in westminster in particular, whether people trust Boris Johnson. The opposition certainly doesnt. We are on the verge of stopping a no deal brexit. If we get the bill food we have succeeded in the insurance bill by friday. Johnson is setting a trap, saying vote for an election then we cannot queue off course. Hes saying it will be on the 15th of october. We dont trust him. This is his problem, he is entrusted a Prime Minister. There are reasons why people might question what the Prime Minister is saying. Two sundays ago, no 10 rubbished reports the Prime Minister was considering proroguing parliament. Days later, he did just that. He repeatedly said he doesnt want an election, but is now castigating the opposition for not agreeing to his demand for one. Hes talked about bringing consensus to the commons, and has kicked over 20 mp5 out of his own party. There are smaller things too. During the tory leadership campaign, he said the eu is driving up costs for people who export kippers. He even waved one around. But the fa ct of he even waved one around. But the fact of the matter, the eu isnt doing that. Some people criticise him and dont trust him. Many other collea g u es him and dont trust him. Many other colleagues are sticking with him. He is the brexit minister stephen barclay. He says its about trust in the Prime Minister. He voted against the deal that the previous Prime Minister brought back three times. Where the trust is lacking, those who trusted the labour limit faster with that promised to respect the referendum result. Trust is an issue in europe too. David frost is representing the Prime Minister in brussels today. Again the issue of trust. Despite claims from Boris Johnson that again the issue of trust. Despite claims from borisjohnson that his government has made progress on a new agreement, no evidence has been offered to back it up. We have no details on what he may want to replace the backstop with and the europeans say they havent received those details. We cant know if they are being offered in private but certainly in public the details havent been made available. Christian fraser and rob watson are in westminster. Lets begin with the situation the promise to find himself in. One through his options now that he hasnt got the general election he wants and has had no deal removed from his armoury too . think its pretty obvious from what labour and the think its pretty obvious from what labourand the snp think its pretty obvious from what labour and the snp said that they arent going to give him an election until they are sure that the no deal legislation has passed through both chambers of westminster. It goes to the lords tomorrow. Going to be hours of debate on the bill over the next couple of hours. Well probably get to a point by friday where the bill is going to get royal assent, taking us to monday. If you hear from some this evening they feel that the Current Situation is unsustainable because parliament has taken power from unsustainable because parliament has ta ken power from the unsustainable because parliament has taken power from the government but at the moment they arent prepared to give an election to the Prime Minister. At some point something has to give. My by monday, do labourfeel they by monday, do labour feel they have enough assurances regarding no deal to get behind some short legislation setting aside the fixed term parliaments act to give the legislation he wants . Rob, as was just said, one of the issues comes down to a lack of trust. Yes, and a broader point about british politics. Ive been covering british politics. Ive been covering british politics funnily 30 years, maybe a bit more, and many Prime Ministers have been criticised for policies being wrong for nearly 30 years. I cant being wrong for nearly 30 years. Icant remembera being wrong for nearly 30 years. I cant remember a Prime Minister being attacked so much, including my people on his own side, on his truthfulness and trustworthiness. Thats a reminder that in many ways borisjohnson is the most controversial occupant of ten downing st really since the end of the second world war. Very specifically on the issue of what opposition parties will do about a general election. Part of it is trust. Part of the calculation they are also making is it may not be the best time for them to have a chance of making sure that borisjohnson doesnt win. Its not entirely about trust. There are normal political issues at play. The taxis had from his own side bring us back to the issues of kicking the rebels out of his party and whether that was a good strategy. To play doubles advocate i cassie wild they want to do that, they want to bring back discipline to the conservative party. I can see why they want to do that. Theres a lot of animosity on the backbenches. Something even bigger than that, there are two fears. One that borisjohnson and his senior advisers, people who ran the vote campaign, part of the new thinking, the donald trump way of politics, you look out at the country and in this case you see a country and in this case you see a country deeply polarised between leave and remain and you think that this is all out war, we are going for the leave voters, we are hoping that they are more of them, and we hope that they come to the conservatives and if that means purging the brand, so be it. The counter thought to that is that that is profoundly and deeply risky and that traditionally in this country, parties who have done well are those who look harmonious, not ones who are purging. Parties that are brought churches. This election, whenever it is, is going to be a test of that new politics. Does it work . Does the idea of identity politics, you are from the leave or remain tribe, is it going to work or come unstuck . Weve been hearing from a pollster this evening who told us that people have different views on what should come from brexit, whether its no deal, or leaving with a deal. Generally there isa leaving with a deal. Generally there is a fatigue in the country that this is going on and on. He has a strong card to play in a general election. Absolutely. We know that the card is going to be Something Like this, firstly, are you sick of brexit, in that voice of his, then vote for me. Do you want us out by the october the 31st or do you want delay at the hands of come as he would call him, that old lefty Jeremy Corbyn . The model from the other side must be based on the idea that people, even if they voted leave, are fearful about a no deal brexit because that is probably going to be the labour position. Look, if you want some sort of crazy donald trump is my best friend brexit, if you dont want that, vote for us. An amendment put forward by stephen canet, something has to give. Parliament has to find some compromise. Clearly some frustration put forward by Stephen Kinnock. Is the frustration going to be shared in the country . Its interesting, youve hit the nail on the head. One extraordinary thing, talking as if politics is normal. Its not. Thats one thing thats not working as it normally does. British politicians do deals, they come together and there is compromise. What were seeing, and never seen compromise. What were seeing, and never seen it, the polarisation gets worse and worse. You feel as if most politicians arent listening to each other. Have you noticed whats happened over the course of the year . We used to talk about in the winter of 2018 about hard brexit and soft brexit. Now we talk about no deal, the parameters of the Brexit Debate has shifted imperceptibly over the last five or six months. They have, and i guess critics of the whole sort of brexit project would say that hold on, you said a deal was going to be easy and brexit would bring these great things but now the brexit argument is about its the will of the people, it doesnt matter whether its any good or not, you must fulfil the will of the people. My point is that you would have thought that the holy grail of this. My goodness, how do we bring everyone back together . How do you breakdown the remain and leave barrier . Its fascinating to anyone looking in, no politician, no movement, have cracked that. How do you bring the country back together . Two things you would say, people would say, look at the chaos, but the constitution and parliamentary process is working. It is holding the executive to account, we are going to a general election where people will be asked, what they want from brexit. In one sense, despite the unprecedented things that are going on, it is working. One must be careful about this. Often there are noisy protests here in london but you know, the economy is chugging along, people arent at each others throats, people didnt come out in protest in their millions when brexit didnt happen in march. You have to get things in perspective. Im saying there is something about the debate that isnt the way it normally happens. There has been a certain courtesy lost, a certain politeness and decency in the way british politicians do business. That idea of thinking they have to compromise with each other, that seems to me for now to have almost entirely gone. This is two tribes going to war, to quote a certain pop band you wonder if one side was to win, how divisive it would become and what it means for politics. Maybe in the end, both parties have to be dissatisfied with the compromise. Perhaps, christian. Thank you. That is something that proponents of soft brexit, the uk staying in the Single Market, were arguing for, the compromise, but the way the debate has gone has for the moment very much ruled that option out. The move against the government weve seen over the last couple of days is about removing the possibility of a no deal brexit. Lets take a couple of minutes to see what that means. Lets look at what that actually means. This is a scenario where the uk immediately leaves the European Union including the eus Single Market and the customs union. There will be no arrangements at all in place to manage the relationship between the uk and the eu. Currently eu membership establishes rules on everything from medicines to trade. None would continue to apply to the uk. Wed expect increased border checks for people and goods. And there are no arrangements for the border between Northern Ireland and the republic of ireland in a no deal scenario. Both sides sides say they want to avoid check on this border whatever the brexit outcome, but with a no deal, its hard to see how checks would be avoided. All of this means the bank of england makes. This projection on the impact of no deal on the uks economy. It shows predictions for the uk gdp before the vote in 2016. In blue we have the initial prediction after the vote and then we have a disruptive brexit, the projections based on the current disruptive brexit, the projections based on the current Withdrawal Agreement. You can see it here, the hits to the economy and then it picks up. The lowest line, including an 8 fall in gdp, is what happens, according to the bank, if there is a disorderly brexit, in other words i know deal brexit. Rejecting significant consequences on that front. The government say that i know deal brexit is manageable. Michael gove is the minister in charge of no deal preparations. Nobody can be blase about the challenges we face or the scale of work required but provided the work is undertaken by the government and individuals, challenges can be met, risks can be mitigated and we can be ready. In terms of Public Opinion this graph which combines the results of five separate polls. Slightly more people oppose leaving without a deal than support it, 44 to 38. And remember the brexit party came top in recent european elections and it argues a no deal brexit is now the prefered option. Lets talk to sirjohn curtis, the leading polling expert in the uk. Nice to see you. Help us to dive into this a little bit more. No deal wasnt an issue three years ago. Its become a huge issue. People are engaging with it. Is it a significant driver in how they consider who to support . The truth is that the argument about no deal is that the argument about no deal is just is that the argument about no deal isjust a rehash is that the argument about no deal is just a rehash about the debate of whether we want to remain or leave in the first place. With brexit, there is no point in talking about there is no point in talking about the electorate as a whole. We have three different electorates. We have a remain and leave electorates. 75 of remain voters think no deal is a bad idea. We are seeing the remain and leave divide very clearly articulated in their preferences for articulated in their preferences for a general election. The conservative and the party dominates amongst leave voters but there are 25 of leave voters but there are 25 of leave voters but there are 25 of leave voters who vote for the brexit party. Boriss chances of winning an election probably rest on getting that 25 number lower than it already is. On the other side of the fence, one third of remain voters say they are voting labour and some vote lib dems, so they remain vote is going to two very different parties than the leave vote. If we have a general election, well see remain and leave voters voting in very different ways. Are they changing their minds . No. As far as no deal is concerned, because it has suddenly become a big subject, we are discovering that the opinion polls asking the same question that they asked for, five, six months ago, the distribution of answers to questions about brexit are to be the same, meaning that neither some of the arguments in recent weeks from the arguments in recent weeks from the opponents of brexit who said it was going to be terrible, and using a recent Cabinet Office leak to support that, but equally government ministers pass attempt to persuade us that it will be ok dont seem to persuade us either. Neither has had much, much purchase. Stay with us. You can get more information on the bbc news website. Lets keep talking to sirjohn about the state of opinions with reference to brexit. Iam i am curious about the way the ramon side, they are concerned that the main voters will just side, they are concerned that the main voters willjust shift from labour to the lib dems, lib dems to labour. The opportunity for Boris Johnson to win an election, even though at the moment he is running at only 34 of the vote, way below what theresa may got in 2017, is because, and that is one of the legacies of the brexit impasse, and particularly of the election. The liberal democrats suddenly rose