Police in moscow are reported drawing scientists like iron filings to have made more than two hundred from around the world. Arrests, during protests organised by opposition groups. But that magnet wont be powerful the rally, in support of free enough to attract the minority elections, was authorised of his Party Colleagues who oppose by officials, but the march moved leaving the European Union without an agreement. As the risk of that grows, so does talk of options away from its permitted route. For parliament to block a no deal brexit, and ways Prime Minister johnson could stop them. Tim, what do you think the Prime Minister and his team are up to . What they would say they are trying to do is to accomplish in three now on bbc news, dateline london. Months what they would say theresa may failed to do in three years, which is to have a proper negotiation between equals, them with the eu, and they would say what equalises that negotiation is britain being ready and willing to walk away from the table, and that is why they are stepping up preparations for no deal. At this stage, when you are this close to crashing out by legal default on october the 31st, it doesnt matter if preparations for no deal is a bluff, which i suspect it is, or if britain is actually preparing for no deal, hello and welcome to the programme because when it comes down that brings together some to spending the money, of the uks leading columnists putting the infrastructure in, with the foreign correspondents preparing the tax plans, who file stories for the folks back there is no difference between that and just bluffing. Home with the dateline london. In effect, what the government this week, indias Prime Minister, is trying to do is to accomplish narendra modi, ends autonomy for kashmir to free it what they would say theresa may from being terrorised failed to do. By violence, but could it dont forget, when they do this, make that problem worse . And youve probably heard they are talking to two audiences of fantasy football. One is the eu, to say, is the weeks chatter in the uk about a general election you need to renegotiate and take out the backstop so we can sell and a government of National Unity fantasy politics . It to the tory brexit with me are. Rebels in parliament. They are also talking to the brexit party, because theyve done the maths and they know, if the conservative tim stanley, a leader writer on the Daily Telegraph newspaper. Party is seen to pursue a soft, theresa may style brexit, michael goldfarb, the us broadcaster they will win over a handful who presents the podcast the first rough draft of history. Of moderates but they will lose ashis ray, whos been a foreign about 20 of the electorate correspondent since 1977, to the brexit party. Including with the times of india. If they pursue a harder brexit, nesrine malik, a sudanese born even if it cant be done, writer whos a columnist even if it means they are forced for the guardian newspaper. To hold an election, a warm welcome to all of you. Even if it means political chaos, they are more likely to win an election if one is then held. So this is a huge political gamble. Donald trump has offered his nobody is denying that. Services as a mediator not a talent you might associate with a politician as polarising as the us president. But it offers one explanation for this weeks big change the scrapping of article 370 of indias constitution, but i also suspect that, which permitted jammu and kashmir, at this stage, this close, the only state in india which has with the choice really a muslim majority, between leaving this year or not a degree of autonomy. At all, my suspicion is that boriss kashmir is contested a permanent source of tension very precarious path to brexit and occasional bouts of conflict with indias neighbour, pakistan. Is probably the only path now left until now, the us has treated jammu to britain for leaving the eu. And kashmir as an internal matter. So europe will blink first . No, it wont. This is my first time on the show when President Trump told imran khan, the Prime Minister since boris became Prime Minister, of pakistan, he was willing and throughout theresa mays to mediate between the two premiership and towards the end it countries, it might have convinced narendra modi, felt like an increasingly more precarious game ofjenga indias pm, it was time to act. When is this going to collapse . And then, when she resigned, ashis ray, its a dramatic move. It seemed it was going to collapse will it lead to dramatic change . Even quicker, and now boris is really bringing the endgame, i think, notjust for the Brexit Process but i think the jury is out. There is a lot of controversy, for the tory party. And what i can confirm as we speak is that the national conference, it feels like there is some sort which has been the main Political Force in kashmirfor 75 years, of running out of road for them in fact the party that gave a popular ratification to the maharajahs accession to india, has today gone as an ideological entity to the Supreme Court in india and as a practical government. To challenge the orders and i agree, i agree with tim, which have been passed. Of course, there are two parts i think that boris has cornered to what happened earlier this week. The first is the scrapping of article 370, which gave a special himself in this position, status to kashmir by virtue of that whether he believes in it or not, accession treaty, but that was done that this is the only way away with by a president ial order. He can get some more road for the conservative party, because theyve pinned themselves to it and they cannot afford to lose brexit votes, and they are now really selling a hard brexit as a good thing. Then came two equally as opposed to a thing theyd rather controversial moves. Avoid, now its suddenly one was to downgrade something thats great. The region from full statehood what is genuinely disturbing, to what is called a union territory. Two union territories, as a matter of fact, because the state has been actually, is this whole the eu bifurcated into jammu and kashmir, which was the original title of the state, and ladakh, is going to blink first, which is one of the regions the eu will blink at one minute to midnight on the 315t of october, the eu doesnt want a no deal, and thats the only card we have in our pocket. Ijust think, if you are negotiating and doing this really complex, very smart, svengali type backdoor negotiations, you oughtnt to be of jammu and kashmir. Waving the cards that are in your pocket all over the media all the time. This is what we have you are going to blink because we will threaten you with no deal. So the eu has complete does that mean they can ingress and insight effectively be run from delhi . Into what the british cards are yes, mainly by the all you have is no deal, Central Government. All controversial, but parts that is going to harm you more two and three have gone than us, we have made this very through the Indian Parliament and have been voted on favourably clear, why would we suddenly by both houses of parliament. That said, i think this move change our position, is seen by a lot of people so close to the end . As misguided and rash, for the simple reason that much of article 370 had been diluted, and it had been diluted with concurrence of the state what is happening now assembly ofjammu and kashmir, in preparation for that, so in this case what has happened what is happening is this very is that a draconian style disturbing, parallel universe, post truth situation, has been adopted to do where michael gove and other away with article 370, brexiteers are saying, which gave, as i said, very disappointed in the eu, they are refusing to negotiate, not been very grown up, a degree of autonomy. And we are being grown up to start with, when the accession treaty took place, only three items and coming to the table. Were with the indian Central Government defence, Foreign Affairs and communications. The rest were with the state. But, over the years. Its completely upside down. He said we hold all the cards the morning after we voted to leave, and there are no cards, just a bluff card. Yes and whats interesting is. I kept thinking of what donald trump said when Boris Johnson became Prime Minister. He couldnt even remember the guys name, hejust said britain trump, its been eroded. And i keep remembering what boris things have come back said his criticism of theresa may to the Central Government, but what has also happened was, she didnt follow is the assembly of jammu Donald Trumps advice to go and kashmir, which sat in well hard. Between 1950 and 1957, i think he even said finally said that article 370 cannot be abrogated, so it will be a very interesting those precise words, a test case in the Supreme Court of india. Like he is a well hard guy himself, lets see what happens, you know, playing rugby against ten year olds. I have this terrible feeling what the Supreme Court has to say. That there is a similarity in their approach to getting things done between donald trump and Boris Johnson. Its high risk because presumably the danger is that it fans donald trump was a real the conflict and makes people estate developer. Who have been pushing for independence for kashmir even more determined, he used to go to brownfield sites because they have even less to lose. With local politicians and say, we are going to build a great thing right here. Didnt have the money lined up or anything lined up. When i hear the daily, oh, heres a billion quid to build hs2 between leeds and manchester, yes, but there are two 1. 9 billion for the nhs, parallel streams here. One is the increasingly sharp as if he can magic this up and more draconian tone of politics in india, i dont think it is an unknown but as you mentioned quantity in brussels, correctly in the introduction and when they see this kind there is also the global context. You see this all over the world, of behaviour, they willjust where local conflicts that had kind of been rested but stable are being pushed into actual think, itsjust gas, volatility by heads of state that are trying to garner Popular Support there is nothing there. And get votes, because they realise you can sort i do worry about how you complete. Of get away with it now. America is not looking. If we are headed towards the exit, and its clear that the remain groupings cannot agree if anything, it is actively encouraging this instability. On when to have coffee, much less china was traditionally an ally of pakistan and is now a strategy to stop this train, in its own islamophobic crisis. I just worry that well end up on october the 31st with this hot air balloon suddenly being pricked and we will exit in the worst possible way. We do have cards. Which card . The extraordinary thing saudi arabia is under the control with theresa may was to say of mohammad bin salman, who isnt somebody you can go to for help with in the manifesto she believed subcontinental crises. No deal was better than a bad deal. Before, they used to pump money into pakistan. If that was true, so there are a lot of global axes you have to prepare that before would have stabilised for the possibility of no deal. These kind of conflicts but who are either under their own the government is arguing that you populist leaders at the moment, turn disadvantage to our advantage, and they are saying, or are distracted by something else. We are suddenly outside and we need so i think we are going to see more to attract scientists, of this, and weve seen so we suddenly change the visa this in saudi arabia system to attract scientists. And the middle east in general. Weve seen people trying to push their luck to see what they can get away with. Even though the 0bama administration you suddenly cut taxes. And previous administrations there is a lot of stuff were not particularly interventionist, in an explicit way, there was work behind the scenes, that will be costly, rapping of knuckles, but that doesnt happen anymore. Things Like Operation kingfisher, we are beginning to see to essentially compensate. That rise to the top. How are these negotiations. . The eu will be hurt by us do you have a sense that hes crashing out without a deal. Made his bold move and hes multiple cards . What about theresa may . Going to get away with it . The day after, assuming the worst Case Scenario on november the 1st, the day after, you are still going to have to negotiate a new free if any indian leader trade agreement with the eu, were going to do this, now would be the time, with electoral strength, the opposition disintegrating. And so they will say, i think nesrine is right. You framed this as donald trump what about that 39 billion quid offering to intervene, you owe us when you crashed out . But he makes an entry into geopolitics and it goes the other way. Thats one of the cards. Its funny, because the indian papers this morning if we leave without the deal, thank god for the internet, we dont play that. I could read some of them thats a card for later on. So youd say you have no free but they are leading on Vladimir Putin endorsing this move. Trade in the future. This is a huge thing. The government, id presume, it says that, in asia now, would seek to negotiate an eta. Vladimir putin has reasserted but id say they would say himself, and geopolitically russia the same things they said is as strong as it during the Withdrawal Agreement has been in decades. The other thing is the china question. Which is, fine, you still owe what i am coming around to is the absence of a response from pakistan. Us that 39 billion, there would have to be a backstop. What you are assuming is that everything stays equal on november the 1st. You know and i know that what is likely to happen around the uk is a movement breaking it up. How many years did the uruguay round take . I will tell you, it took a long time. If you cant come to an agreement, what is owed from previous that seems very interesting to me, the idea that imran khan is not capable of merely shaking his fist arrangements and the backstop, these negotiations will go about that move, and that says a lot on and on and on and, about internal weakness in pakistan. In scotland and in northern ireland, when we talk about ladakh and jammu and other parts, you know, and kashmir, i looked at the map and the North Eastern border is with china, and i think, long before we get to any kind of violence, china will have a lot you are assuming. To say about some kind of resolution the problem with the model. Nobody is denying the fact of without violence. That the eu will be harmed by a no deal brexit, i wouldnt say they are going to come out unscathed, but the point is that the impact on the uk will be much larger than the eu, and all these cards i would say though that pakistan has already made several noises. People are talking about. The fact is that i am disappointed to inform pakistani friends that they dont really have a legal case in this situation. What pakistan can do, and they are already doing, is to take this matter up diplomatically and politically, because it is spread and equally the Indian Government among fewer people . A right to defend their position. Yes. All of these cards but what you mentioned to start are remedial cards. We have seen the first warning with, russia has indicated that this in the contraction in the economy is an internal situation, in the quarter ending injune, and i also see this as really so that should be a warning kashmir versus delhi, because that is really to people who are still what the battle is about. Sitting on the fence. What is being feared in india that said, let me take a little is that kashmir will become more step back and say this anti delhi and therefore disaffection and at the end of the day, militancy will grow. A Political Party exists Security Forces will get bogged down, human rights to fight elections, win violations will take place. Elections and to be in power, and i take tims point to the extent that it is very important for the conservative party politically to reclaim the support that has haemorrhaged to the brexit party, so therefore, to that extent, boriss strategy is understandable. That said, i think we are otherwise into somewhat uncharted territory, because this may be borisjohnsons 0n the question of militancy, one way in which pakistan has been strategy, but equally there accused in the past on situations is strong opposition in parliament, like this is by arming and there could be a scenario, and supporting the militant groups that then use violence and i see this happening, to further their cause. That there will be a bit of a contest between parliament and the executive, and what that means is that parliament will have to find a way of stopping Boris Johnson. Indias argument is it is the pakistani Intelligence Forces encouraging radicalism in kashmir that has caused the breakdown of security, and effectively kashmir has been run by the Central Government since december. It is their argument for why and the final thought on that, they need to step in, to bring security, stability according to the constitution unit, and Economic Development to kashmir. Thats the indian argument. Effectively, if borisjohnson were to lose a vote of confidence, i think the problem with that is threefold. It would be possible for parliament 0ne, it is likely to radicalise then to mandate him as a caretaker politics within kashmir, which would undermine security. Prime minister pending a general second, it is likely to radicalise politics in pakistan. Election or some other any conflict over kashmir usually executive coming in to say, s