Speaks to irish senator Neale Richmond on hardtalk. Welcome to hardtalk, im stephen sackur. Ireland is bracing itself for the scariest of halloween nightmares. Prime minister borisjohnson has pledged to take the uk out of the eu on october the 31st come what may. That may very well mean a no deal brexit, with potentially damaging economic consequences for the uk, but also for eu nations, most particularly ireland. My guest is Neale Richmond, chair of the irish senate . S brexit committee. Can ireland prevent itself becoming the collaterdamage in a brussels london showdown . Neale richmond in dublin, welcome to hardtalk. Thanks for having me on. Lets start with Boris Johnson, new Prime Minister. He has changed the dynamic of the brexit process, because he says britain is leaving on october the 31st come what may. How has ireland adapted to this new Boris Johnson dynamic . Well, being quite frank, for us in ireland and across the eu, the change of british Prime Minister doesnt actually mean we need to change at all. The dynamic hasnt changed. Ultimately the uk is still intent on leaving the eu, as they voted through in referendum, and we still intend to allow them leave but to make sure they meet their responsibilities they have as a departing member. We negotiated a very fair withdrawal over 18 tortuous months that required serious compromise on both sides, and we very much see that that is the vehicle to allow the uk leave in a managed fashion. Nothing has changed otherwise in any other regard. I confess, im very surprised to hear you say nothing has changed, because surely in the real world of politics, the fact theres now a Prime Minister in the uk who is absolutely intent on leaving the eu, even if with a no deal, that makes a big difference, because theresa may quite clearly wanted to do almost everything to avoid a no deal. Things have changed. Well, things may have changed in london, and indeed the rhetoric may have changed, but the facts of the matter havent. Ultimately, the uk has decided to leave the eu. Theyve triggered article 50 of the lisbon treaty to allow them do so, but we on the european side stand consistently to protect the european principles, and indeed to ensure the uk meets its responsibilities, that we have those legal guarantees for european citizens living in the uk and british citizens living across the eu, that the uk meets its responsibilities in terms of financial payments, to see off commitments that theyve made that they received a massive return on, but equally that we have a mechanism that keeps the border on the island of ireland open, that ensures that the good friday agreement the very fragile peace deal thats only 21 years old of which the british and Irish Governments are co guarantors of, that that is protected. That theres no hardening of the border and that we can go forward. When you go through that list, i do get the feeling nothing has changed, but there are new elements, not least the language coming from some of your senior officials in ireland. Simon coveney, foreign minister, deputy pm, he said the other day that borisjohnson is putting the uk on a collision course with ireland and the eu. Do you think that was helpful . I think that was a Fair Assessment by the tanaiste about whats been happening in london over the past few weeks. Weve definitely seen a sterner line from the new Prime Minister, his cabinet colleagues and some of his advisers hes appointed, but the real facts of the matter are quite clear for the uk to leave by october the 31st in a managed fashion, the withdrawal greement needs to be ratified by westminster. Another element that may be changing is pressure, pressure on dublin. Here are the words of an influential economist in your capital city, Dermot Oleary from goodbody stockbrokers, he says, as the economic and politic carnage of a no deal looms ever closer, ireland will likely come under pressure to relax its position in favour of an option that avoids the no deal outcome. Are you feeling that pressure . The key line from dermot there, and dermots someone who i know personally and hes a very credible economist who i rate highly, its as likely, but ultimately ireland hasnt come under any pressure from any european partners. Indeed, in the last few weeks, weve seen continued support from the new European Commission president , ursula von der leyen, and the Incoming European Council president , charles michel, as well as heads of state, government and new members of the european parliament. Ultimately, for the eu, when a member decides to leave, they need to do it in a manner that respects their responsibilities. The uk has serious responsibilities that need to be met. Interesting you say theres been no change inside the eu i can cite you some change right now. The polish foreign minister said a time limited backstop, and its the backstop that is so much at the centre of this dispute between the eu and britain about the Withdrawal Agreement. Tthe polish fm said, a time limited backstop is much more favourable than a no debrexit. Therefore, if ireland turned to the eu about changing the Withdrawal Agreement with regard to provisions on the backstop so it would only apply temporarily, lets say a backstop for five years, then the matter would be resolved. So theres no unanimity in europe anymore. The poles for one are suggesting you guys need to more flexible. No, because actually that statement by the polish foreign minister isnt new. Its something hes raised it at European Affairs Foreign Council meetings three times already, and its in contrast with the opinion of the polish Prime Minister, who has backed at European Council level this Withdrawal Agreement consistently. And if we look at the statement from a number of hard brexit supporting erg members, such as mark francois, over the last week, theyve said that even if the backstop is removed, things wont change. And Boris Johnson himself, during his tory leadership campaign, said a time limit or a unilateral exit mechanism isnt enough. Things havent changed from the european side. We very much see the backstop as being central to the Withdrawal Agreement, but crucially, that backstop is an insurance policy, its not a final destination. No one ever wants to see it invoked. We very much want it to be there so the uk and the eu can negotiate a new deep and meaningful trade, customs and regulatory deal that means theres no need for a hardening of the border on the island of ireland, but equally theres no need for a hardening of the border at the irish sea. As were talking about pressures, about what might happen in a no deal brexit, particularly with the irish economy, i suppose the question for you and your colleagues in government end is are you prepared to see your countrys economy go off a cliff at the end of october . Well, thats not a choice for us. Everything about brexit is a british decision, a british decision voted by a small majority of british citizens and backed by westminster. Theres no such thing as a good brexit for us. Were simply trying to limit the damage. The economic hit to ireland in any form of brexit will be bad. In a no deal, of course itll be very bad. But this sudden rush to try and pin everything on ireland and blame ireland, and weve heard some really unfortunate rhetoric in the press and from the backbenches in the uk is unnecessarily. Utimately this is a british decision and british responsibilities, the answers to which lie in westminster. So no flexibility, no new ideas coming from dublin despite all the doomsday analysis from your own governments various, sort of, economic committees. Finance ministry talking about almost 100,000 jobs at risk in the short to medium term. Talking about gdp going down by at least 5 in a no deal scenario. Also that your exports, of course 12 go to the uk, they would be in desperate trouble, but also the bridging exports that go through to europe through the uk. All of this potentially catastrophic, and youre saying to me, abosultely no way we consider changing our position. Stephen, this goes down the route that brexit is solely about economics. For us in ireland, and our european partners, the most important thing to do is to preserve very fragile peace on this island. I grew up during the troubles. I come from a fairly mixed political background a unionist Family Living in the south happily part of ireland in the eu. We know what i hard border looks like, we know what army patrols look like, we know what watchtowers look like and we know what watching bbc and itv and any news Network Every night for a new terrorist atrocity looks like. Thats what we want to avoid first and foremost. That is the european position. And if you look at the 18 tortuous months that went into negotiations, that required compromise from the eu, to come to a scenario where we do have a situation that we can allow for a new relationship that doesnt allow for that hardening of the border, that is where the key is. This notion that somehow we can make a tweet to the backstop, we can change the Withdrawal Agreement or we can do something magical in the next couple of weeks is absolute nonsense and it misses the key point of this matter. Brexit is a very, very serious decision taken by the british people, the responsibility of which lies with the British Government. And throwing all the blame on ireland and focusing on the very real economic trouble that would present itself to this island, trouble that would pale in comparison to the economic decline on the island of great britain, doesnt do anyone any favours at this critical stage. Let me just try to tease out the logic of what youre saying. Youre saying the backstop is absolutely vital because you cannot afford to see a hard border on the island of ireland because of the implications it would have, the damage it would do to peace in Northern Ireland on the island of ireland, and yet you know that if on october the 31st theres a no deal brexit, which looks increasingly likely because of the stand taken by Boris Johnson, and, it has to be said, because of the stand taken by you and the eu as well, there will indeed be a hard border. Youre going to have the hard border anyway, but youre going to have the hard border plus catastrophic economic damage. So wheres the gain in that . Theres no gain in brexit, as ive said multiple times, and to be honest, the stand weve taken with our european colleagues hasnt been firm, hasnt been arduous. Brexit is a british decision, and weve reacted to that decision. Weve worked with british politicians and officials to produce a compromise agreement that avoids the worst case scenario. But Neale Richmond, address if you would. I will get to that, stephen. But theres a lot said there that requires. Lets get to the logic of what is happening right now. Youre saying the island of ireland cant afford a hard border, and yet were heading headlong towards a no deal brexit and a hard border. Are you therefore saying that if that comes to pass, as far as ireland is concerned, the good friday agreement, peace in Northern Ireland, is all destroyed . No, thats completely far fetched analysis, and again puts everything on ireland where the responsibility. I must stress, the responsibility lies with the uk. It goes back to the referendum, when the issue of ireland was never discussed once in the campaign. What is the point constantly rehearsing the fact that the real blame lies in london, lets go back to the referendum,. Well, i never voted for brexit. Lets talk about three tortuous years of negotiation, you say. The fact is, as is often said in politicians and otherforms of life, we are where we are, and you in your government have to take very big, crucial decisions in the next few weeks that will or will not aid and abet a no deal brexit and the imposition of a hard border on the island of ireland. Is that what youre ready to do . Well, firstly, its notjust on the Irish Government. We negotiated as part of the eu 27, and thats often lost in the debate, and its very important this is a european united position. What we have seen is the backstop and Withdrawal Agreement produced under difficult situations, i wont go through it again. The counterbalance to what weve seen in london is absolute chaos. Were looking at the biggest british political crisis in peacetime since the corn wars. We have no consistency. We have people talking about the brady amendment or the Kit Malthouse compromise, will talk about alternative arrangements, these arrangements provide for nothing that is actually in operation around the world. We need a legal basis to protect the peace. We are simply not getting the alternative from the uk. All were getting is a wall of noise and confusion from westminster consistently. The British Government has responsibilities. They simply cannot walk away from those and try to blame it on an Irish Government or a European Union thats been consistently working in a mature way to get a compromise agreement. All right, well. We are well aware of the very, very negative impacts of a no deal that, though, is not our choice. There are some voices in ireland who are beginning to doubt the wisdom of your governments stand, and they are controversial voices and they get stamped down pretty darn quickly. But listen to the words of timmy dooley, a fairly senior politician in the opposition fianna fail party, he tweeted this, that the stand off with the uk right now is a direct result of Leo Varadkars failure to engage in basic diplomacy in more than two years. The Irish Governments lack of experience and arrogance is going to hurt ireland in the coming months. So irish unanimity on this issue is breaking down. Well, no, stephen, because if you look at that tweet in a bit more detail firstly, timmys deleted that tweet. And secondly, within two hours of him deleting it. Listen. Yeah, because he faced so much pressure. Within two hours of him deleting it, his own party leader put it out. I know, because ireland right now. Ultimately the backstop has universal support in ireland. In Northern Ireland, in the european elections, over 60 of people voted for backstop supporting parties. Theres not a crack in unanimity. Timmy and other people are trying to put this on the Irish Government. Timmy dooley was pointing to a position which in ireland it is very difficult to air, because the elite, the political establishment in your country is adamant that ireland Must Stand Firm against all of this pressure from london. But there are people in ireland who are wondering whether right now this is, in effect, cutting off your nose to spite your face, because you, in ireland, are going to be hurt most. What timmy dooley was trying to do was score cheap domestic political points with a personalised attack on the taoiseach taken completely out of context. We know the impact of brexit. The support for the backstop is universal. Theres a few dissenting voices in certain newspaper columns, the same people who say ireland should leave the eu, something thats favoured by only 7 of the population. But ultimately. Ive met these people and debated with them countless times, what is the alternative to the backstop . There is no alternative that gives the eu and indeed the uk. Because lets not forget, the backstop wasnt an irish creation, it was a british one based on british red lines. The backstop provides an element of assurance and guarantee for that Peace Agreement and allows us to move into something. Neale. Weve not been presented. With respect, stephen, the british establishment in any form havent presented a credible alternative. You know better than i that many british politicians, from borisjohnson and dominic raab, whos now the foreign secretary, to people like iain duncan smith, have said that there are viable alternative arrangements and they talk about the ways in which Electronic Technologies can be used away from the border to make sure that the flow of goods and people across the border is unhindered. And they say that there is clear evidence, including the views of people like former chief of the hmrc, her majestys customs and revenue in the uk, that this can be done, but you dont want to hear that because you insist that a hard border is essentially what londons trying to impose on dublin. No, stephen, thats completely off point. What weve said, and if you look at the Withdrawal Agreement, alternative arrangements are allowed for. They would come in before any type of a backstop would kick in. However, what weve said, and weve looked through the draft reports, if you actually question the politicians and people youve mentioned, the second and third question, there is no answer, and they cant provide evidence of these technologies in operation. If you look at the report by the alternative arrangements commission, who i met with and weve discussed this and looked at this. Ultimatley on one hand they propose a solution for phytosanitary and sanitary controls that would see ireland potentially exit the single market. They talk about controls that would actually end up doubling the border on the island of ireland. And again, they talk about comparisons with sweden, they talk about comparisons with switzerland and turkey and the us and canada completely irrelevant heres a really important question then, what is happening right now, and you sit on the Senate Brexit committee, what is happening in ireland right now in terms of preparing for this increasingly likely no deal brexit . Are you indeed looking at putting back checks on the border, hundreds of customs and other personnel, security personnel, being put back on that border . What is the border going to look like post october the 31st if theres no deal . We dont have a concrete answer for that, and this is what people have to remember this is an unprecedented event whereby both sides, the uk and the eu, but ireland in particular in the eu, have responsibilities. Were discussing with the Eu Commission officials about the alternatives, but ultimately what we keep coming back to is that regulatory alignment and customs arrangement that makes up with the backstop. Weve gone through so many different parts. Were not planning to put up with a border, but if a no deal scenario, a crash out, is allowed by london, what we have is ireland having very clear responsibilities to the european single market. But equally, the uk having very clear responsibilities to the wto and any future trading relationship, and both sides having a clear responsibility to the good friday agreement. We lose control but brexit was meant to be about taking back control. We lose control over the border that we act on as co guarantors of the peace treaty. We want to negotiate a new trade, customs and regulatory relationship between the eu and the uk that makes everything to do with the backstop and Everything Else redundant. We cannot get there if we dont have the insurance. Throughout this interview, you have said, look, the answer to all of this lies in london, not in dublin, and ive noticed frankly the frown that youve borne through much of this interview. What do you think this crisis, and lets call it a crisis, is doing to the long term future for anglo irish relations . Youve talked about the inflammatory language coming out of the uk press. Im looking here at an article in the Daily Telegraph in london written by theresa mays former adviser, nick timothy, who accuses your pm, leo varadkar, of weaponising the Northern Irish border. So my question is what happens from hereon in to anglo irish relations . You know, im not actually a very frowny person, but i think back to 2011 when the queen came to ireland for the first ever state visit by a royal and in return, a couple of years, our president Michael D Higgins visited the uk. It was a really special couple of years. We saw irish people happily supporting the english soccer team. I cheered with greatjoy to see an irishman lift the cricket world cup for england a couple of weeks ago. We can get back to a very good place. Now is a difficult time, but the one thing ill say is our ministers and politicians are talking more now than they have over the past two decades. The tanaiste had a particularly warm relationship with the former chancellor of the duchy of lancaster. Hang on, im going to stop you, before you start. Well, Neale Richmond, before you start painting some rosy picture of the future for anglo ireland relations, let me put this to you. After what is potentially a no deal brexit, then the eu has to decide whether to do a Free Trade Agreement the uk. You personally have suggested thats going to be be extraordinary difficult, and people in the uk who think it will be easy to deliver are living in a fantasyland. Youve also suggested, alongside many others in ireland, that the uk will find it very difficult to do a trade deal with the United States unless they address all of the issues connected with the good friday agreement and Northern Ireland. So i would put it to you that the long term prospect is of an extremely sour relationship between you guys in dublin and the British Government. But that can be rescued very easily, stephen. If you look at those comments, they werent made by me in relation to the trade deal sabine weyand, Michel Barniers number two, whos gone on to the head of dg trade in the commission, has said very clearly no trade deal will be negotiated between the eu and the uk unless the three issues of the Withdrawal Agreement are addressed, even in a crash out scenario. In the us, congressmen ritchie neil, chairman of the house ways and means committee, and speaker nancy pelosi, have said they wont pass a trade deal, remember Congress Passes trade deals, without the uk meeting obligations under the good friday agreement. What i want to put into the situation is relations are good. Now is extremely testing times, and ill be quite clear, the rhetoric is disappointing and misleading from certain elements of the back benches and indeed certain elements of the media. Many people who happily want to paint ireland, and indeed our taoiseach leo varadkar, as the people to blame for this scenario, but ultimately underneath that i fundamentally do believe the relations in a post brexit era, depending on how we do brexit, can return to quite good levels of warmth. Really . Even though. Nothing will be as good as what we have now. Lets be clear, but if you look at the good friday agreement itself, stephen, and this is quite clear, that allows for ireland, unlike any other eu remaining 27, to have a far deeper relationship, be it through the intergovernmental conference, be it through the british irish trade ministers council, and so many other tools. That could be a great aspect for ireland and the uk working closely together with ireland still within the eu and the uk allowing itself to depart. However. Were nearly out of time and theres one more important issue we havent touched on and thats the possible long term unification of ireland being hastened by a no deal brexit. Isnt that the truth that many in ireland feel it will lead to a new debate in Northern Ireland and that ultimately it will perhaps speed up the so called border poll, where Northern Ireland people will vote on whether they want to join the republic in an unified ireland . Thats what many people in the republic ireland want to see happen, isnt it . Its what some people want, and indeed we see sinn fein talk about that any time they are asked for a solution on brexit even though they wont take their seats in westminster. But weve been consistent that any talk of a border poll or in unification at this stage is completely unhelpful and it completely misses the political reality that despite the brexit vote and despite Northern Ireland voting to remain in the eu, the vast majority of people in Northern Ireland still support unionist parties and candidates. We respect that, and its the responsibility of the british secretary of state for Northern Ireland to decide under the good friday agreement, under the principle of consent, if anything has changed in Northern Ireland that would lead to a border poll being asked. We dont want to go down that route. We respect the decision of Northern Ireland to stay part of the union and we dont want to see a hardening of the border between Northern Ireland and gb. Equally we dont want a hardening of the border from north to south. Neale richmond, we have to end there, but i thank you very much for being on hardtalk. Good morning. Yet again it was scotland and Northern Ireland that bore the brunt of the showers for wednesday. The area of low pressure that was responsible thats now drifting off into the north sea, allowing this brief ridge of High Pressure to build before this deepening area of low pressure starts to push into the south west in in the early hours of friday morning. And its going to stay with us friday, into the weekend as well, heavy rain and gales are going to be a feature of the forecast. But, for the next few hours, weve still got a few showers for scotland and Northern Ireland in particular. And a little bit of patchy mist and fog in western areas. Elsewhere, we will see lengthier spells and temperatures falling down to a comfortable 11 13 degrees just first thing on thursday morning. There will be some Early Morning sunshine and thursday, generally not a bad day for many. Some lengthy, dry prolonged spells around. A few isolated showers in scotland and Northern Ireland and maybe one or two cropping up in the midlands. But, with some sunshine we will get some warm highs of 2a degrees, thats 75 fahrenheit. But the low pressure is going to start to push into the south west during the early hours of friday morning, its going to be some heavy rain and strong to Gale Force Gusts of wind on exposed south west coasts. So that rain at 1am will start to push its way up through cornwall, across wales, up into the midlands. So for the Early Morning rush hour, it will be leaving north wales, the north midlands and will be sitting across northern england. Dont forget the yellow and greens denoting heavier pulses of rain. Some areas could see 28 30 millimetres before the morning is through. And, with the additional prolonged showers that weve seen, that could bring some localised flooding. So the frontal system clears to the north of scotland, behind it, a trail of showers and some blustery winds gusting in excess of 50 60 miles an hour, exposed coasts in the south west. Eastern england will stay largely fine and breezy, brighter, but 211 25 degrees, 77 fahrenheit, it will be quite a humid feel to things. Friday into saturday, we will see that area of low pressure sitting across the extreme north and southern flank of that low is where we are likely to see the strongest in the winds. Saturday, plenty of frequent showers across scotland, Northern Ireland, north west england, the rainfall totals really starting to add up and some gales further south. But still, those highs of 22 degrees. The frontal system really not moving very far, very fast, that low pressure dawdles its way steadily eastwards, we still have plenty of showers with us on sunday. The best of the drier weather into the south. Take care. So irish unanimity on this issue is breaking down. Im Sharanjit Leyl in singapore. The headlines President Trump visits the sites of last weekends mass shootings, as critics accuse him of stoking racial hatred. The us calls for calm and restraint over kashmir, as tensions between india and pakistan continue to escalate. Im ben bland in london. Also in the programme Canadian Police believe they have found the bodies of two teenage fugitives suspected of three murders. And vodka, with a twist. We look at the first Consumer Product made from ingredients grown