Transcripts For BBCNEWS HARDtalk 20240714

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Now on bbc news hardtalk. Welcome to hardtalk, im stephen sackur. Just days ago, hopes were high that a peace deal to end afg hanistans long war might be in sight. Talks involving the us, the taliban and the Afghan Government representatives were to take place in qatar but they didnt happen. The taliban rejected the delegation coming from kabul and a familiar cycle of of recrimination and violence resumed. My guest is mohammad umer daudzai, president ghanis peace envoy. What will it take to bring peace to afghanistan . Mohammad umer daudzai in kabul, welcome to hardtalk. Thank you, stephen. Lets start with those peace talks that were supposed to happen in qatar. The whole world was watching and waiting and then they didnt happen. What went wrong . It was supposed to be the first intra afg han dialogue, not negotiation. Sort of breaking the ice to get familiar to each other, and because of the complexities of the past and some weaknesses on both sides, more on the side of the host, it didnt happen. But hopefully it will resume soon. The process will resume soon. Lets just go into a little more detail. The taliban, out of qatar, said that the problem was that you had tried to load the kabul delegation to be sent to these talks, loaded with officials, youd wanted to send more than 200 people, the taliban said you were treating it like a wedding party. Well, in everything in afghanistan, because we live within a constitution and we follow a democratic and inclusive process and it was because of ensuring inclusivity, the list got longer, because we wanted all sides within afghanistan, those who live under the flag of the islamic republic, should be represented. Thats why the list got longer. And actually, we had got information from the host that the numbers doesnt matter. Its the inclusivity and the will to talk and express, thats what matters. Isnt the truth of this, that you were not keen on these talks in the first place. You have been very reluctant to join a process which began with the United States and mr trumps special envoy, zalmay khalilzad, having his own channel of negotiation with the taliban behind the backs of your government, and you have always been deeply suspicious and sceptical of this process. Thats not quite true. When the us decided on talking to the taliban face to face, they discussed with the Afghan Government and the afghan Political Forces outside government, everybody gave them a green light to go ahead and talk to the taliban. Thats how it all started. When they made a bit of progress in understanding each other on at least two issues, the withdrawal and relationship with terrorism, the third issue that was the intra Afghan Dialogue came up. That was supposed to happen. It will happen, but its postponed. The fact is, we were preferring that the qatar dialogue take place after the loya jirga, but when the us side says that everything is sort of postponed, and they want the into Afghan Dialogue to take place soon, the Afghan Government agreed with them and they started the process, they put together a Reconciliation Leadership Council to manage the process of putting together the list of participants that will go to qatar but then the other side, the qataris sent us a list that they had crossed anyone even indirectly associated with the Afghan Government. Well, that leads to my next question, and i dont want to spend too long on this because it is process rather than real substance, but it is important to figure out, when you say the talks at some point will happen, involving both the taliban and your government, are you happy for them to still take place under the auspices of the qatari government because you appear to be accusing the qataris of intruding in the process and knocking off the visa delegate list all of the representatives from your government so im struggling to see how you can regard the qataris as an honest broker, as a third party. To be honest with you, some political addresses in afghanistan are not necessarily part of the government. Their priority was not qatarfor the beginning of the intra Afghan Dialogue but then because our partners were keen, they also agreed. Afghan government was neutral. In fact, a qatari delegation visited kabul before the process started and president ghani told them they will change the sequence so the loya jirga would take place after qatar but because it didnt take place, we switched our priority back to loya jirga. Well, you say these talks, and the world does regard these as very important, because as we have already established, for a very, very long time, there has been no direct talking between Afghan Government officials and senior taliban representatives, so it really matters, but it seems to me if one looks at the situation right now, both the diplomatic and military situations, it is the taliban that holds the cards. Would you agree with that . Well, in a sense, the taliban are not yet agreeing to meet face to face with the Afghan Government or to enter talks in negotiation with the Afghan Government. If you put it that way, yes, they are holding the cards. I suppose im thinking more that the taliban clearly understand something fundamental about the american position. The americans matter a great deal to this, not least because they have 1a,000 troops on the ground still supporting your government but it is quite plain today that donald trump wants to get those troops out of afghanistan as soon as possible and the taliban know that very well and can exploit that. You know, the taliban were always claiming they are fighting because afghanistan is occupied by the us, so now they are sitting down with the us, they should have agreed to a ceasefire at least but they are not agreeing to a ceasefire proposal against us and against the Afghan Government. As far as the us were to withdraw troops, we dont have any particular issue with that but the troops withdrawal should take place after the end of the war or at least an agreement on the prolonged ceasefire. Yeah, but donald trump made it plain, and made it plain that the end of last year, that he fully intends to draw down troop numbers from 1a,000 down to maybe 7,000, ie to reduce it by half, within the next few months. Thats what we expect to see. How vulnerable is that going to leave your Afghanistan National army . Numbers doesnt matter. President 0bama wanted to zero it by the end of 2016 but it didnt happen. What is important for us as the prolonged partnership with the us. And us support in terms of finances, enabling us into the andsf. Im pretty sure because i once was minister of the interior, the andsf can take care of the countrys interests provided the partnership with us and allies continue. Lets look at the facts. First of all, just to finish the thought about the americans and the reliability of their support for you, you know now that since 2001, the us reckons it spent close to 1 trillion on its operations in afghanistan. That is not sustainable and it is not going to continue. Do you accept that . Yes, at the peak, they were spending over 100 billion a year, but now their contribution to andsf is about 5 billion, so i think they can afford and also the afghan economy is supposed to come up. And the nato secretary general statement, that they will stay in afghanistan at least until peace and a ceasefire come there. With respect, they are losing faith in the ability of the ashraf ghani government to represent and deliver a secure country. If one looks at the most recent us, this is us analysis of the security situation, the office of the special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction concluded that the Afghan Government control of territory has fallen to just 56 of the countrys districts. This is a record low and the Afghan National Security Forces casualties have risen to a record high. Ie, youre losing the war. Not really. If you compare this year, march, april with last year, march, april, the figure of casualties is much lower on the andsf side and each year in the past, and these two months, taliban will secure advances. This year, they failed to secure any advance and in fact, they have faced setbacks so the real situation is that andsf on the battlefield is doing very well. I dont know how you can sit there and sound so sanguine and so confident. Look again at the figures, nearly 4,000 afghan civilians killed in 2018 and if we look back over the last five years, youve lost 115,000 members of your Security Forces, thats partly why desertion rates are so very high. You are in no position it seems to me to be confident that without continued us support, you can hold the line against the taliban and the taliban know that. I think this year, reality is changing. The casualty rate is lower compared to this time last year and the talibans stamina to fight face to face against the Afghan National Security Forces, its much lower compared to last year. Its politically that they are pushed to a high level. Thats because of the us taliban talks which naturally boosted their political position. The battlefield is not matching their political position. Politically, your problem isntjust the taliban of this major boost because theyre now direct negotiation, communication, with senior figures in the american administration, the other political reality is, your president , ashraf ghani, a man who you used to criticise until he gave you a job, ashraf ghani is deeply unpopular amongst many afghans and that is a huge problem for the credibility of your government. I dont think we can claim that. I think the election is just five months away and the election will prove who is popular and who is not popular. Interesting you say the election is five months away, the election should be in may. Ashraf ghani should be out of his term of office in may. Many afghans believe that if he continues beyond may, he has no mandate, no legitimacy. We live within a constitutional system and the Supreme Court has given a verdict that he can continue until the next election produces a new president. Here are the words of Hekmat Khalil karzai, whom im sure you know well, the former Deputy Foreign minister. He wrote this in Foreign Policy magazine recently. The government of ashraf ghani has alienated and sidelined the overwhelming majority of senior afghan politicians because it has not included them in major policy making decisions, it has failed to improve security and Economic Conditions and the security conditions have worsened. That is the view of a very senior, and it has to be said, a man who was loyal to the government for a long time, official. Well, if one persons view matters then until a few months ago, as you said, i was a critic of president ghani but then i realised that his doors are open and he is committed to inclusivity. If i may, i dont mean to sound rude but he bought you off with a job. No, i didnt need that in that sense, i needed a role to play in the Peace Process, and thanks that he gave me because peace is a priority for me and this is very close to my heart and to the heart of all afghans. So i am the main player within the whole Peace Process and thats an honour for me that he has given. The principle of inclusivity, he has applied inclusivity, thats why his doors were open for me to get in. If hes serious about inclusivity and youve used that word many times in this interview as a means to get to a Better Future for afghanistan, why, after may, when his initial term runs out, does he not leave power and allow a National Unity administration to be created in the interim before new president ial elections . That is an interim government that could be truly inclusive . There is no word in the constitution about an interim government. He has to abide by the verdict of the Supreme Court and the Supreme Court provided the interpretation of the constitution. Heres the words again, im quoting to you senior people in your country. Mohammad hanif atmar, a former National Security adviser. He thinks ghani has no mandate to go on beyond may. He says, we must support a caretaker government which on the 21st of may should take over because this current government will have a mandate that has ended and given his record, we are much better off without afg hani. If i am free to have an opinion, his views are electoral. Its a campaigning view and i think its against the constitution. Whats going to happen next in afghanistan . The Peace Process, if we can call it that, is now in limbo once again. Youre talking about this grand loya jirga, a peacejirga which you say is going to happen in the next few days but what can it possibly achieve if the conflict in your country is as deep as ever . For peace to come we need development in three layers. Internationally, which there, regional Co Ordination and cooperation we are building but the most important one is the National Consensus. The loya jirga is the best and the most afhanised mechanism to build that National Consensus about peace. It is supposed to provide a framework for talks with the taliban. It is also supposed to identify mechanisms of reaching a sustainable peace in the country. But mr daudzai, nobody seems to buy it inside afghanistan. Im thinking about the chief executive of your own government whos supposed to be working in partnership with ashraf ghani, abdullah abdullah, he says hes going to boycott the loya jirga. He doesnt believe it will achieve anything. Same with president ial candidate shahab kakimi, he says hes going to boycott it too, so where on earth is it going to go . Loya jirga is about Grassroots Level leaders. Leaders coming from districts, from villages, from provinces. There have been huge struggles across the country, everybody trying to get in to become a member of the loya jirga. This is going to be the most representative loya jirga of our history. The biggest loya jirga of our history. All districts, including those that are controlled by taliban, will have representation in the loya jirga. They are on their way to arrive in kabul. Already one third of the members have arrived and the rest are arriving tomorrow. This loya jirga is about a National Consensus. Its not about the top leaders consensus. To build top leaders consensus that there are other mechanisms such as the Reconciliation Leadership Council. That is supposed to bring top leaders consensus. Not loya jirga, loya jirga is a National Consensus, its Grassroots Level consensus. Listening to you, mr daudzai, im tempted to think afghanistan is a vibrant democracy in rude, good health, and of course, the reality is entirely different. Your country is utterly divided, half of it is in control of the taliban and if one looks at one of the other fundamentals of afghanistan, you remain one of the most corrupt countries on earth and the afghan public is very well aware that ashraf ghani, for all of his promises to root out corruption, has overseen a Administration Just as, if not more, corrupt than the ones that went before. This isnt the vibrant democracy youre talking about. We are Building Democracy in the middle of a war, a war that has continued for a0 years. We are Building Democracy in the middle of the huge flow of aid that came to the country, but we still appreciate that aid that the International Community provided. The present may have a lot of questions but i am sure the countrys future is bright. We have always remained together, united, and we will remain together and united and we will find an intra afghan solution soon. Of course, the country is not united, its absurd to claim is united, its deeply divided, thats why weve seen war for the last 20 years. I put it to you that the war will only come to the end when people like you explicitly say yes, the taliban is going to have a very significant role in the future of governance in afghanistan. Are you prepared to say that to me now . Yes, of course, the taliban, aside being a militant force, they are a Political Group also. They have every right to be part of the political system in the future. So you are prepared to say here and now, yes, Foreign Forces, led by the United States, must leave our country. We must give the taliban a role in the politics of the future of our country and that is something that you will commit to . I would say that yes, the International Forces might leave one day when the right time comes. With respect, thats not good enough. The taliban call you and your government a puppet regime, they say youre being propped up by Foreign Forces and they say that afghanistan can only be truly free and find a free political future when those forces leave. Well, from the day i have come to the high peace council, i have established a culture of respecting each other, so no matter what language the taliban use against us and against government, i will use the language of respect to them. I consider them afghans and i welcome them and i work for that, that they become part of a larger political system because thats their right. However, i would advise them than to get there there are other ways than war and violence. Violence may not get them where negotiations can get them. Can 2019 be the year of peace for afghanistan . There were high hopes that it might be just a short while ago. Can it be . Yes, i have already declared that in december last year, in london, i declared that. And im still claiming that the significant beginning of a meaningful peace will start this year. We have to end there but mohammad umer daudzai, i thank you very much forjoining us on hardtalk. Pleasure, thank you. Hello there. A weekend that began with wind and rain ended on a relatively quiet note across most parts of the uk. That is how we start the new working week, with some dry weather for most of us. Western areas will see some rain, and that will slowly spread eastwards over the next few days. Could be some fog patches to contend with, and for a time, butjust for a time, it will turn a little bit warmer. This is whats going on the view from space, the satellite picture from a little earlier on. You can see a few stripes of cloud trying to push in from the west, but all these frontal systems making very, very slow progress, so this one on monday morning really only draped across the far west of the uk. Elsewhere, High Pressure in charge, very light winds, hence we have some mist and fog patches around. They should tend to clear through the morning, and in most places, monday will bring some spells of sunshine. Best of the sunshine likely to be found across scotland. But remember that front in the west, still dangling its way down into Northern Ireland, west wales, the south west of england, with some patchy rain at times. Here, relatively cool 12 in belfast, 13 degrees in plymouth. But come further east, well be up into the mid teens, maybe 18 or 19 degrees across some parts of scotland. Then we go through monday night, and we continue to see these areas of cloud and patchy rain in the west. Perhaps some heavier rain reaching Northern Ireland later in the night. Elsewhere, some clear spells, some mist and fog patches, also some low cloud rolling in from the north sea. Most of us not having a particularly chilly night, maybe parts of Eastern England and eastern scotland getting relatively close to freezing. So we get on into tuesday, and it is more of the same, to all intents and purposes. Still some rain in the west, heavier rain for Northern Ireland, maybe fringing into western scotland, the far west of wales and cornwall later in the day. Further east, some spells of sunshine, and for many of us tuesday will be the warmest day of the week, with highs between 17 20 degrees. I say tuesday will be the warmest day of the week because that warmth isnt going to last. As we move out of tuesday into wednesday, this front which will have been in the west eventually moves its way eastwards, taking cloud and showery rain with it. The rain will be quite sporadic, quite on and off, and there is some uncertainty aboutjust how quickly this band of cloud and rain will slide its way eastwards. But ahead of this band of cloud and rain, this frontal system, there will still be some warmth holding on across the south east corner, so temperatures here could get close to 20 degrees. But behind the weather front, well, this is where things start to change. It turns much cooler and fresher from the north west, that cooler feel extending to all parts on thursday. And by friday, it could potentially feel very chilly indeed, with northerly winds across the uk, and showers for some of us. This is the briefing. Im sally bundock. Our top story spains socialists win most seats in the general election, but fall short of an absolute majority. Were live in madrid. Im tim willcox in madrid. Despite the celebrations by the left, a win also for the far right. Sri lanka bans face coverings following the deadly Easter Sunday attacks. Authorities say its crucial for National Security. Combating Climate Change with cows

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