— rates potentially going up faster than expected makes profits harder to earn, and shares relatively less attractive. and the good news spin is that higher rates are the result of growth, so these are problems of success. which is all reassuring. but there's a bigger way of looking at this: that this is a turning point. we had a crash ten years ago; we still haven't got back to normal and this kind of disruption isjust a starter as to what to expect as we do. the banking crisis of ten years ago has spread across the west and was like an economic heart attack, leaving banks slow to lend so companies couldn't get credit to pay for new investment and too many households were stranded with big debts and couldn't afford to spend. across the west, grows inevitably slowed. for the time being at least, the nice decade is behind us. the credit cycle has turned. central banks had to step up to stop the economy is falling down even further, printing money and slashing interest rates to nearly zero. in normal times with everything under control and inflation low, you might expect the main interest rates to be about 5%. that is the uk historic average but for the best part of a decade the west has got used to rates at or below 1%. time after time people prematurely predicted that growth would return and rates would rise. it would not seem unreasonable to me to expect that once monetary policy normalisation begins, interest rates would proceed slowly and rise to a level in the medium term that's perhaps about half as high as historic averages. in fact the year's recovery was slow, economies were lacklustre and rates stayed low. now, solid growth looks to have returned by the looming question is how we get back to normal. everybody has got used to easy money. the us federal bank has started normalising rates but they are still only i.5%. the expected path is for three quarter point rise is for a year but this isn't an exact science. and for investors who famously vulnerable to overreacting to everything, small changes to the expected trajectory of rates can make a big difference to the value of bonds or shares. the path into the era of low rates was unprecedented and the path out of it is also uncharted. who knows how painful it may turn out to be? so what should we expect next — and what does all of this mean forfinance ministers, investors and for the likes of me and you? gillian tett is the managing editor of the financial times and joins us from new york. ann pettifor is an economist who for a while was an advisor on financial matters tojeremy corbyn‘s labour party. good evening to you both. how worried should we be, gillian? well, in the short term, moderately uneasy, not too panic stricken but in the long term we should be concerned because there is a big dislocation in the global economy and we need to address them. expand on that, what are we talking about? very simply, there is too much debt, there is 40% more debt per gdp in the global system than there was a decade ago just before the crash and the only reason we haven't noticed it is because interest rates are very low. the question is what will happen when interest rates go up. indeed so. ann, how worried should we be? we should be very worried because we have a new crowd at the fed who want to raise rates and tighten monetary policy which represents a big shift from what we've been through over the last ten years. you agree that this is a transition, a turning point? it's a turning point and i'm not sure they'll get it right. it's very hard to get it right but ann you accept that they can't sit around, in the uk it is half a percent and the us, i.5%, should they sit around? no, our point is that the economic model out of the crisis is deeply flawed, it is about injecting trillions of dollars into the financial system come into markets and property, bond markets, and at the same time imposing austerity. the model has not led to recovery and in fact i would disagree, we aren't really seeing growth, we are seeing a little uptick in wages here and there but actually we aren't even seeing real inflation in the us. my worry is that we are shifting into the mode of tightening monetary policy while there is massive fiscal expansion by the club administration. so this is another false alarm where people are seeing rates going up but not the real recovery we need? there isn't a real recovery so we have to be careful. wary about raising. on that point, gillian, do you believe the global economy has turned around to mark most of the world is enjoying what would be regarded as 0k growth. i'd be a bit more optimistic than ann in terms of their being growth going on but the problem, the image use is that you have a financial system before 2007 that was addicted to cheap private—sector debt, heroin if you like, we were weaned off that by becoming addicted to morphine, government help and what we are seeing is an explosion in government borrowing around the world which will eventually create problems. what has rocked the markets over the last few days in america has been a very funky project linked to something that is complicated, i won't describe it, it is like the sub—prime mortgages of a decade ago but it is the symptom of the problems in the system as people have responded to free money from the central banks by doing some weird things to try and get yields and returns and that eventually comes back to bite everybody. are you saying that you can't raise the rates now because in many respects this is a problem of the methadone, whatever the drug substitute is? it is the withdrawal from that that is the problem but you do want to get people off it, right? i couldn't agree more, i am in the cab of people who say that we should have started the withdrawal process a bit earlier and there is going to be inevitable lurches like this as the system goes through withdrawal. that's part of the process. i'd argue that the fed and other central banks must press ahead with what has been a pretty rocky ride so far. if we've seen any growth, as gillian has suggested, it is because last year the central banks pumped in $3 trillion. when the economy is meant to be recovering they had to pump in $3 trillion of liquidity to keep it alive. the growth of debt and pumping it up but you can't have growth without that and you can't do it for ever. exactly come at the point is that there is something wrong with the actual model is the problem and the economists haven't come up with a solution to the crisis that was caused in 2007 and what's going to happen. we have a president who is going to spend money on tax cuts and so on and putting people onto the board of the fed who are going to tighten monetary policy and we know aren't going to work. we don't have an answer to the thing that will satisfy the people who voted for donald trump, they voted for him because their living standards aren't. .. how do you think of the politics of this is going to play out? donald trump tied himself to the rises in the stock markets, does he have to eat humble pie? does he ever eat humble pie? he's not going to say get is what, i was wrong. he was pretty nutty to tie himself to the fate of the stock market in terms of using it as a scorecard for success but what he's going to do, he'll distract everyone with something else going forward and he probably won't talk about it again. people are talking about tax cuts and deregulation instead and there is quite a good feel—good sentiment in america. thanks very much indeed. the tories were ahead of labour in an icm opinion poll for the guardian today. one point ahead. that might seem surprising given conservative divisions — ably demonstrated last night on this programme when anna soubry urged theresa may to sling borisjohnson and jacob rees—mogg out of the party. those europe sparks will likely fly again tomorrow when mrs may convenes her brexit ‘war cabinet‘ to hammer out her next moves. our political editor nick watt is with me. your interview with anna soubry yesterday kick—started a bunch of extra troubles for the conservatives today. quite a reaction on the leave side. one person said, anna soubry is doing a greatjob for brexit and on the pro—european side there is strong sympathy for anna soubry but not total agreement. on this point about whether she could remain in the party run byjacob rees—mogg, she said no. justine greening, former education secretary, expressing some sympathy for that view. i understand a handful of conservatives would leave the party ofjacob rees—mogg became the leader. an anna soubry‘s point about slinging the likes of borisjohnson and jacob rees—mogg out of the party, no agreement among the remains of porters on that but there is sympathy for her view that the main eurosceptic group is overly influential to which the erg say thank you, you are over influential because your mindset is running the treasury. —— remain supporters. i have heard from anna soubry who said she has at hundreds of e—mails from supporters and she has had some very private agreement from conservative colleagues. but then she said, of course i have received a number of critical e—mails and some unpleasant phone calls including one death threats to me and my constituency manager, who takes the calls. now, anna soubry has reported this call to the police. and on the day that the prime minister was talking about a more decent civic discourse. where does it go from here? tomorrow there is this big meeting when they are going to hammer it out, the compromise, whatever it is. the cabinet brexit subcommittee meeting tomorrow and thursday. tomorrow they discussed northern ireland and then it is the economic relationship with the eu and trade the following day. these talks are going at two levels to the eu summit in brussels in march. level number one, the political agreement on the intimidation phase in december, which must be put into a legally binding text. the second thing, the uk cabinet must agree what it wants for the future economic relationship. so, by the end of february, beginning of march, there is a month to try and influence the guidelines of the commission negotiations. look forward to that, thank you. transport secretary chris grayling was accused today of misleading parliament in his statement to the commons yesterday, about the problems of the east coast mainline. lord adonis, former transport secretary, was the accuser, and he has been tormenting mr grayling for weeks over his handling of the problems of the east coast virgin—stagecoach franchise. the franchise is on the brink of collapse, but mr grayling is allowing virgin stagecoach to carry on winning train contracts; lord adonis thinks the companies have been bailed out and need to face a penalty, and in effect, be restricted in bidding for future franchises. it's quite a challenge to the case for privatised rail. here's our business editor helen thomas. the three railway lines that link london to the north were built over 100 years ago by private companies. london ended up with three separate stations nearly next to each other. what role if any that stagecoach should be playing in the running of those same three line today is the latest battlefront in an acrimonious debate about the future of our rail. slowing passenger growth has put the squeeze on britain's rail operators and senior industry figures privately concede that the franchising model just is not working very well. big complicated rigid contracts are not good for operators, who cannot control many of the factors that determine revenue growth. and the latest fiasco over the east coast franchise suggest that those contracts might not be working brilliantly for government either. it has now been confirmed that the situation is much more urgent. it is now clear that this franchise will only be able to continue in its current form for a matter of months and no more. i need to put in place, in the very near future, a successor arrangement to operate this railway and to end the current contract. but stagecoach‘s business could stay on track, with partners, virgin, the company could still continue running the east coast on a not—for—profit basis. next door, stagecoach has short listed for the east midlands franchise and on the west coast, where virgin is a majority partner, the companies had just been given a new franchise until potentially 2020. stagecoach is short listed for other franchises as well. the transport secretary said that he cannot borrow —— barthem from bidding. not so, say some. if the company is deemed to be unsatisfactory and doubtful in terms of economics, it can be stopped from bidding. stagecoach were committed with virgin to deliver services until 2023. they were made to do so. and if they walk away from it, it should be banned from future franchises and if the department for transport then runs the service the problems with the east coast will cost stagecoach £165 million under its contract. rail operators argue that they have no incentive to game the system and over bid. they are on the hook for potentially hundreds of millions of pounds to the government. there is another reason the government might want to keep stagecoach on board. they need them. as franchises have got bigger, there are fewer big experienced players to bid for them and the rule of thumb is, you need at least three bidders to ensure value for money. knocking someone like stagecoach out of the proceedings could reduce some short lists to only two. there are clearly not enough companies. what we have had since 2012 has been as many contracts that have been directly awarded, than those that have come about as a result of a franchise competition. the whole system is flawed and it simply needs to be replaced. this is showing real problems. it has not yet worked. delivered some things, a lot of investment and it has delivered much more passenger journeys in the jargon that many more people are taking train journeys. it has also delivered very high prices compared to much of europe and it has not really delivered the improvement and efficiency that were part of the rationale for the whole thing. slower passenger growth means other operators are struggling. the threat to the model is notjust a worry that companies are somehow being let off the hook, it is also private operators going cold on bidding for these large and risky contracts. helen thomas there. we asked the department for transport to join us but nobody was available. in a statement the stagecoach group said the company had neither walked away from the east coast franchise nor asked for any special treatment. it added that the firm had operated trains for the government for 21 years, raising billions of pounds for the taxpayer — and that the government is clear there is no basis to preclude them from bidding for future franchises. the nation has been celebrating the hundredth anniversary of the 1918 representation of the people's act today — and with it, women getting the vote for the first time. but actually, that's not quite the case — a few women did have the vote in local elections decades before that. and a very few had been voting even before 1832 as well. those were some property—owning women. but for many more women to vote in national elections is obviously a big thing, which is why today is marked as the real birthday of women's suffrage — and if you were watching yesterday, we devoted half our programme to that milestone. however, it has not escaped the notice of some that february the sixth 1918 also marked the day that many working class men, the non—householders, got the vote too. a fact far less prominent in today's festivities. for some, this is a metaphor for identity politics — we are so preoccupied by the traditionally defined underprivileged groups — based on colour, gender, or sexuality — we forgetjust how many white straight men have been, or are — or at least feel — underprivileged as well. has class got lost? we'll discuss in a minute, but first here's john sweeney. 100 years ago today, women over 30 who owned property got the vote. and working—class men too. since then, some working—class men might be forgiven for thinking things have got better for women than for them. take politics. to begin with, working—class men got a prime ministerfirst. ramsay macdonald in 192a. in number ten — neither jeremy corbyn nor vince cable are horny—handed sons of toil. still less jacob rees—mogg. back in 1918, most people were working—class. free state education helps catapult millions out of poverty and ignorance. today, only four in ten are working class but what is striking is how the privately educated rich, less than one in ten of the population, still do so much better than the working class. has the liberal elite‘s growing focus on race, gender and sexuality left working—class people overlooked in favour of identity politics? and did this neglect help propel brexit and donald trump? interesting question. claire fox is the director of the academy of ideas. faiza shaheen is from the centre for labour and social studies. they both say they are from the working classes. i'll come to them in a moment — but i want to start with a us perspective, because in new york is the political scientist and author mark lilla, who wrote a much discussed piece after the trump election victory, arguing that hillary clinton and american liberals had put too great a focus on identity politics around gender, race or sexuality. due to the success of that article he has expanded his argument into a new book "the once and future liberal: after identity politics" which is out in the uk in may. good evening. do you want to explain why you think that the identity politics thread of liberal politics has gone too far? i think the shift has really been from a politics of interest and there can be interest of particular groups, the vote is one such interests, economic games, the end ofjim crow in the american south. a politics of interest has been substituted in this country by a politics of recognition. and the politics of recognition is about being recognised as a member of the group, not only the group being recognised, but the individuals, particular individuals feel recognised and as we see in this country, affirmed in their identities. the shift from interests to identity and to recognition has meant that it has been harder to build bridges among various groups who share common interests are who have overlapping interest, so when you have a politics of interest, the workings of the working class, women together, then you can build a coalition, but when it is a politics of representing yourself and feeling recognised, that tends to divide people. let me pin you down. we have all seen videos of the american police shooting black people over the last couple of years. black lives matter is a result of that, a classic piece of identity politics, what can you say against that? i would not call it identity politics in the way that i mean it or rather that there are elements there in the black lives matter movement that are concerned mainly about recognition. if you are concerned about actually changing concrete conditions that have led to this terrible situation of what we call driving while in black and having problems with the police, then you have to think about how you govern. the only way to change that is by winning elections and governing over the long—term. a politics that focus on interests and shared interests and overlapping interest can achieve that. a politics of recognition tends to fall into symbolic gesture, so for example, black lives matter did not only worked to change things on the streets of many of our cities, activist showed up at the rallies of bernie sanders and hillary clinton and tried to stop the proceedings in order to get recognition of their movement and their own conception of american history. politics of recognition can divide people over what it means to be recognise, what the nature of history has been. hillary clinton and bernie sanders were the allies of these people. i want to take what you have said and put it to my other guests. thank you for setting that out. do you recognise any of that critique of the way identity politics can divide as applied to the uk, we have had here? yes and no. i am suspicious of an argument that says that groups coming out that have legitimate grievances should not talk about them because otherwise it hurts them from winning elections and divides groups. what i would say is that different equality groups, we have not always been good at connecting to broader issues in the economy. we are not very good at recognising that this is also an economic issue. there is the fight for equality for the lgbt communities as well. there is an element of discrimination and prejudice that we have to address but also if you look at feminism and what has happened in terms of the economy we have seen that traditional women's work is lower paid. why is it that social care is low— paid? we need to be doing much more to understand back connection with the system. the idea is not to equalise misery. the aim is not to say, myjob is not done if i do not say that white men are not as affected by as dirty as brown women. do you think the identity politics has gone has gone far stop am affected by that. i think what it has led to is jockeying for position of recognition and actually a competition to play the victim and i am concerned that when we talk about class in this, what we end up doing is saying what about white working class men, they are an identity as well. that has happened in america with trump. it is the only place to go. i am a victim who is suffering and oppressed but i think that class is not to be ignored. i have been bemused today in relation to the vote that in fact the celebration was of women getting the vote and all hail the celebrations, it is a big thing, but i could not get over the fact that the millions of working class men who got the vote. it was not hardly mentioned at all. i thought that that was an interesting thing and i think that we can see that jockeying for position that what has happened is, into sexuality and all of this, is that there is a real sense in which there is a snobbery for a lot of working—class things and brexit has brought that to the fore. was it a tactical mistake, if you go on about minorities and women too much, you create a backlash amongst a group who feels they have not been recognised and that is what he thinks has happened in the us. you have shouted out for every group and you have and shouted out for me. —— you haven't shouted for me. it is weird to argue to silence groups that have legitimate grievances. you cannot say to black men that they should be quiet. this is where the argument goes. there is a real thing about class identity, it annoys me that every time we hear working classes, we hear white. working class is multiethnic, women, we should build solidarity but if we were arguing here that class is really important and we should go back to class identities we will be arguing for a trade union movement. i do not think that the point is whether you're white working class, because of the emphasis on identity and the fact that people stress ethnicity, gender, lgbt, we have campus politics, and people jockeying for their identities and there are certain groups that get left out and the white working class have fared badly. it is not that i want them to become the white working class. what is wrong with politics is it has to be organised around ideas and not identities. we could continue this discussion but we have to stop there. thank you very much. talking of identity, the far right alternative for germany party, or afd, took third place in the elections to the bundestag last year. their success came, in large part, thanks to their unequivocal messages about identity, immigration and islam. germany had been swamped, they said, by a tide of migrants during the refugee crisis of 2015; germany was under threat, they believed, of "islamization". their success at the ballot box sent germany's consensus—politics into confusion, and out of it, the traditional parties have still so far been unable to form a coalition. if and when they do, afd could become the main party of opposition in the bundestag. but now, a member of the afd in the state of brandenburg has sent shockwaves through his own party. he's announced that he's converted to islam. gabriel gatehouse went to meet him. this is a journey into the world of identity politics. we're off to meet a man who's just taken a pretty big decision. i had a vision. a man who's crossed the line. i have understood i will be muslim. it's six o'clock in the morning. he's already texting me saying, "i'm ready, waiting for you." not really sure what to expect. arthur. wonderful, good morning, gentlemen. hi, how are you? a pleasure to see the bbc. i'm fine, thank you. very nice to meet you. very interesting now. indeed! you're going to tell us all about it. arthur wagner was born in the soviet union. an ethnic german, he moved to the country of his ancestors after the collapse of communism and settled in this quiet berlin suburb. you see, i do not eat schwein, pig fleisch nine months. we meet him the day after he's announced to the world that he's converted to islam. i do not know how they are happy with me, my children. my daughter is very, very conservative. very conservative, yes. your daughter's a conservative christian? very. so how is your conversion going down around the breakfast table? we speak to it sometimes but we have found a solution. it is difficult, yes. but if you have trust to god, you can speak. around the time he joined the far right afd party, arthur commissioned a wagner family crest. it says "the good country family." values he says he still stands by. and this is important for all conservatives, muslims or not muslims. and now i go to my... mr wagner is on his way to work. he's a driver at a local children's centre and he's worried about how people will react to his religious conversion. how can i explain to my colleagues that i'm at the same? i'm a muslim since three months. i'm a muslim in my soul since two or three years and i have not changed the negative, i am the same. but they have changed, in one minute, in one minute, 50 people do not like me. bit of a character! his workmates are one cause of anxiety. his friends in the afd are another. this is, after all, a party that campaigned against what it calls the "islamisation of germany." arthur wagner was actively involved in that campaign. i've been trying to call the local party for the last two days now and there's simply no answer. but they have put out a press statement online. they say the press should be made aware that a member of the afd in brandenburg has converted to islam. and then it goes on to say, "we've taken note of this fact." "not without surprise," i bet you can say that again. they say it's a private matter for mr wagner but they maintain that, as they put it, "islam does not belong in germany" and that the religion is a grave danger, as they see it, to the country. i caught up with arthur wagner on his lunch break. he told me about his spiritual journey. it seems like you're searching for something. first you said you had a midlife crisis. yes. then you found the afd. yes. and then i have found this. they helped me. and now you've found islam. what are you searching for? today changed the whole world and i need, i must find the solution, how can we work the european conservatives and islam. this is my target. lunch break over and arthur has a meeting with his boss. he is convinced that he's about be fired. but this is germany, people don't get fired for their religious or political beliefs. his boss tells him to take some time off. tell us where we are going now. i'm now a really happy guy because i have a holiday, one week, and i can plan my life now, how i would like to do it. you've undergone a transformation. i'm another guy, yes. i was born three months ago, i am ahmed. this is your new name? correct. ahmed. ahmed wagner. suddenly the whole world wants to talk to ahmed. there are endless requests for interviews with radio stations, newspapers, and a russian language tv station in berlin. in the evening, ahmed is the guest of honour at a lecture on chechnya, organised by a group that helps refugees integrate into german society. this is about the least likely place you'd think to find a member of the afd. this may be a den of lefty liberals but mr wagner has been helping out here as a translator for a few years now. i'm a little bit shocked because... it's so weird. at the positive side, in a positive way. it's nice to hear that people can change their minds. arthur has become ahmed but he hasn't in fact changed his political worldview, especially on the subject of the refugee crisis, one of the most important topics for the afd. i have understood what kind of problem we have since september, 2015, in our land and i'm very clear i'm right. i'm right national and i would like to lose this problem. i must understand, this is very important, i must understand. i returned the following day to mr wagner's berlin suburb. after the whirlwind following his announcement, i wanted to know what was really driving him. i would like to show you my old flag. but in the attic, wagner showed me the souvenirs and knick—knacks he'd collected over a lifetime in search of belonging. this is about the wehrmacht. right. the german military. and this is the russian military. this thing. this is a fake. fake id of russian special forces. yes. this is you? this, iam. at some point wagner had acquired a bit of memorabilia with national socialist overtones, something he was keen not to show the cameras. what about the knife that you didn't want to show me? err... cannot, i can't do it. why not? it's not allowed, it not allowed. why not? it's not allowed, it's german. it's not allowed. right. 0k. it's almost as if his conversion to islam is an attempt to escape a decades—long identity crisis, rooted in his russian past. the german guy didn't know, am i russian oram i german? and russian guy didn't know, am i am russian oram i german? and because of this, i never will be success, i never had the chance to be success. if there is a common thread that runs through wagner's improbable journey then it is this. a love of authority and fears about the erosion of conservative values in a changing society. this is changing in our society comes not from islam. it comes from the left people, which, they do not trust in god. they would like to turn around. this is like a ideology. i hate it. so, do you see islam as an ally in your conservative political worldview, against the liberal left? against liberal, 100%, yes. have you spoken to your afd colleagues about this? what do they think? they think that i'm crazy. i will speak, in one ear, maybe. arthur ahmed wagner wants to remain a member of the afd. he may have some trouble persuading his party that there is no contradiction between his politics and his new religion. gabriel gatehouse on a man in search for his identity. that's all we have time for. i'm back tomorrow. till then, goodnight. hello, good evening. we have been stuck in the deep freeze for the last couple of days or so, it feels. don't expect that to change very much, either, as we had on into tomorrow. today brought some snow in places, this picture from a weather watcher in north yorkshire quite typical of the scenes we have seen across many parts of the country. where we have that snow lying around, as well, we have widespread frost to come overnight and with the snow on the ground, the risk of some ice. we will still be stuck with cold air tomorrow. some mild air out in the atlantic but not feeling the effect of that just yet. starting off wednesday warning underneath this ridge of high pressure, it means a lot of dry weather, but under those clear skies temperatures through the rest of the night will dip away. towns and cities well below freezing but out in the countryside we could well get down all the way to —5 to may be —12 degrees across some parts of highland scotland. but with that cold start, we will have a fair amount of brightness to enjoy. a bit of snow still creeping across east anglia and the south—east. another weather system pushing towards the north—west, but this is sam tomorrow morning on a high—resolution model, had a bit more detail. you can see the cloud thickening up across western scotland and northern ireland. from eastern scotland into the spine of england and wales, we will see some spells of sunshine. wintry showers flirting with pembrokeshire and cornwall, still some snow perhaps across parts of east anglia and the south—east for a time. that should tend to clear away for the most part, although some snow showers could remain in parts of kent. out west we thicken up the cloud and northern ireland in scotland, bringing outbreaks of rain preceded a spell of snow. all the while, but further south you are you will see more in the way of sunshine, on what will generally speaking be another chilly feeling day. during tomorrow night things changed a bit because we bring this area of cloud and rein in from the north—west. as that happens, we will start to introduce more of a south—westerly wind. it actually brings something a little bit milder across the north. four degrees in edinburgh, the coldest of the weather down towards the south—east. in compensation, that is where we get the best of the sunshine on thursday. this band of rain and up ra kes thursday. this band of rain and up rakes of rain journeying further south eastwards. that rain could turn heavier in parts of england and wales throughout the day. the temperature is a little bit milder as we go through thursday. that will not last, it will turn cold again as we head towards the end of the week. that's all for me now. good night. i'm rico hizon in singapore, the headlines. two dead and many injured in a taiwan earthquake. a witness is on air with the bbc when this happens. 0h, oh, my god. there is an after—shock, sorry. us shares on a rollercoaster after the global sell off — what will happen as asian markets open? i'm sharanjit leyl in london. also in the programme. the us vice president arrives in asia on a trip that will take him to the winter olympics. and it's lift—off for the rocket that's claimed to be the most powerful ever launched.

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