in southern california. and england's ashes hopes hang by a thread — after australia secures a second consecutive test victory. it's 5 o'clock. our main story is that brexit secretary david davis has told mps that the government has made no impact assessments of the economic effect of leaving the european union. he said the usefulness of such assessments would be ‘near zero' — because of the scale of change brexit is likely to cause. his comments prompted immediate claims from opposition mps that mr davis had misled parliament a year ago when he said his department was ‘in the midst of carrying out about 57 sets of analyses‘ on different parts of the economy. during the day on another brexit challenge — theresa may spoke to the leader of the dup arlene foster who rejected plans for the future of northern ireland's border — and forced the rescheduling of talks in brussels. our political correspondent leila nathoo reports. back from brussels without the deal she wanted. she knows that she needs a new plan to convince those she thought were on her side. this afternoon in the comments facing questions about what went wrong. on monday as she thought she was coming here to make a statement it was vetoed by the leader of the dup. the tale really is wagging the dog. the prime minister insisting that talks we re prime minister insisting that talks were moving forward. we are at the point of progressing onto the next stage, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed so the final settle m e nt everything is agreed so the final settlement will not be agreed until we have the whole deal agreed. but i have to say to the right honourable gentleman he has asked me earlier about hard borders, half the labour party wa nts about hard borders, half the labour party wants to stay in the single market, half wants to leave, the only hard border around is right down the middle of the labour party for top on the cusp of an agreement on monday to try to settle the separation from the eu so that talks can turn to trade, the deal was scuppered by the dup. they pull the plug on proposals for the irish border. they are keeping the prime minister in power and do not want any difference between northern ireland and the rest of the uk after brexit. theresa may has spoken to the dp leader arlene foster today over the phone but it is clear there is still some way to go before they will be able to settle on a form of words to take back to brussels. european leaders will meet in just over a week to decide whether enough progress has been made to move negotiations on. the eu site has been clear it is britain that is holding things up. meanwhile an admission from the man in charge of delivering brexit that there are as yet no official assessment of how leaving the eu will affect different parts of the economy. there is no systematic impact assessment. the answer to the question is no, the government has not undertaken any impact assessment. so there is none for example on the automotive sector. not that i am aware. on aerospace, financial services? the a nswer aerospace, financial services? the answer will be no for all of them. under pressure at home and abroad and with time running out the government is trying to find a way forward to please all camps. and our chief political correspondent vicki young is in westminster. david davis, what kind of impact if ican david davis, what kind of impact if i can use the word, his words have had today in westminster? you could see the reaction from some on the committee because up until now many had felt this has been a refusal by david davis and the government to publish these reports. he has talked about them in the past, about the excruciating detail work that had been done. today it became apparent that they simply did not exist and many labour members of the committee thought it was pretty incredible that the government had not done any assessment of the economic impact of the different forms of brexit. for david davis on his part he is sticking to the words saying he never said that they were impact assessments, he had talked about them as being analyses, that was a com pletely them as being analyses, that was a completely different thing. so what is claim here is that within whitehall for the civil servants something that is an impact assessment is something very specific and he says he never says they existed. do we think that this is going to in any way change the kind of parameters of this debate or does the technical definition around this impact issue that david davis off the hook as far as his opponents are concerned? i think it might do, the brexit committee are now deliberating and deciding whether he has actually stuck by the terms of that vote that went on in the house of commons that dragged him towards the committee today. but i wonder whether more significant than that has been philip hammond the chancellor in front of a different select committee admitting that the cabinet were yet to have a detailed discussion about what the what the future arrangements to be between the uk and the eu. obviously we have been wrapped up in the withdrawal from the eu, how we leave, what money we pay, do we get on to discussions about the next trade agreement and all the rest. but of course the cabinet is not agreed on all this and this is where those terms we keep using about soft, hard brexit, this is what it is about. will we be closely aligned to the eu after leaving. regulations many of them the same, access to the single market, or a much more deliberate clea n b rea k market, or a much more deliberate clean break where we go off to make trade arrangements with other countries. that has not been resolved within government and today the prime minister, her official spokesman saying that discussion will be had by the end of the year whether or not we do move on to the second phase which of course is another problematic area. clearly moving onto the second phase, earlier this week we had that setback for theresa may because the dup did not like the shape of the proposals on the border. as we understand it the prime minister has spoken to the taoiseach and dup leader today. do we have any kind of light to shed those conversations? downing street have said briefly that she spoke to arlene foster, they said that it was a phone call. they did not say much more. in the last few minutes news that she has spoken to leo varadkar but again ha rd to spoken to leo varadkar but again hard to know whether that means there is a breakthrough or not. at there is a breakthrough or not. at the beginning of the week there was talk of theresa may going back to brussels later in the week, still hoping to get all this nail down before next week. that does not seem to be happening right now. the dup certainly do not seem to be in any rush to push this forward and the prime minister in ireland also saying we do not do it by the summit in december, we could pick it up again injanuary. not good news for the chancellor and others who are keen to move onto the next stage to give certainty to the business community. thank you for the moment. our ireland correspondent chris buckler is in belfast. what is your perspective on what has happened today and the kind of communication has been between arlene foster and theresa may? well both phone calls looking for reassurance and really people wanting to hear very different things from the prime minister. arlene foster spoke to theresa may and afterwards we had the sense that arlene foster the dup leader was in no hurry to go to downing street and really there was a mood coming from the dup, hold on, let'sjust see where things go, we're not looking towards a breakthrough at this stage. let's just take stock of developments and whatever arlene foster decides, when she decides to go to downing street then perhaps we can have conversations about a breakthrough. so no sense of a breakthrough. so no sense of a breakthrough there. i can tell you a bit about the conversation between theresa may and leo varadkar the irish prime minister, the taoiseach, there was some stocktaking taking place there but also the irish government reiterated their firm position that as far as they're concerned there can be no difference between ireland north and south once the deal goes ahead. they want the rules and regulations to remain largely the same and apparently they also agreed to talk over the coming days. but those are the two people that theresa may must keep happy. the dup and the irish government and at the moment they want very different things. and really getting a compromise, people have spoken time and again that involving a uk wide deal but as far as trade negotiations are concerned that is something theresa may desperately wa nts to something theresa may desperately wants to avoid and relationships meanwhile between belfast and dublin continued to deteriorate and we had the dup today saying leo varadkar is playing a dangerous game by even suggesting that these talks could potentially just hold off suggesting that these talks could potentiallyjust hold off until the new year. if nothing happens next week at the summit. they say that is a dangerous game. and leo varadkar has been also saying be aware that the dup does not speak for everyone in northern ireland, there are other parties there and of course there is this point, sinn fein now starting to raise the issue of this time and again and tonight they are having the first of a number of rallies, talking about what was ireland needs in this. so you have a political situation that is becoming more and more difficult and i suppose devices for the prime minister as she tries to find some kind of compromise that keeps everyone happy. it is not going to be easy. thank you very much. within the hour we're expecting president trump to break with decades of us government policy by recognising jerusalem as the capital of israel — a decision that's already led to widespread criticism across the middle east. in his speech at washington's national defense university — mr trump is also expected to approve plans to move the us embassy from tel aviv to jerusalem — though that is not expected to happen for several years — as jon donnison reports. over the millenia, few cities have been so contested or seen so much conflict as jerusalem. israel regards it as its undivided capital. today, donald trump is expected to declare where he stands, and honour a campaign pledge. we will move the american embassy to the eternal capital of the jewish people, jerusalem. applause but eastjerusalem has been under israeli occupation since it was captured by israel in 1967. palestinians want it as their capital in a future palestinian state. the us is delivering a lethal bullet to the heart of the two—state solution. that would be actually the kiss of death for the two—state solution becausejerusalem is at the very heart of the two—state solution. it is the major pillar of it and there has been many decades—long policy of the us, the international community and everybody involved, including the israelis and the palestinians, thatjerusalem is a final status issue. moving the us embassy from its current home in tel aviv could end up taking years. but today, much of the international community spoke out against president trump's anticipated change to the status quo. saudi arabia, turkey, russia as well as the pope all critical. but also britain, not on the same page as the president. we think thatjerusalem obviously should be part of the final settlement between the israelis and the palestinians, a negotiated settlement that we want to see. and we have no plans ourselves to move our embassy. on the ground, in this city of palestinians and israelis, as with almost everything here, the issue is divisive. i think that it is about time 3000 years later than it should be, or 70 years after, everyone admits that it is capital city. translation: there will be new problems again. there will be a new intifada. even abroad, as i heard in the news this morning, the western countries are against it, even more than the arabs. already in gaza this morning, there were some small demonstrations. but in recent years, palestinian protests have always fizzled out, the victim of weak leadership and fatigue. arab countries may speak out today but bigger problems across the middle east means many the israeli palestinian issue is less of a priority. president trump says that he sees peace between israelis and palestinians as the ultimate deal. the chances of that though seem as ever very distant. jon donnison, bbc news. president trump is expected to speak shortly but today he held a cabinet meeting at the white house and there was discussion of that issue. let's have a listen. we have a big announcement coming up at one o'clock, perhaps some of you will be there. it is an announcement concerning israel and the palestinians and the middle east. i think it is long overdue. many presidents have said they want to do something and did not do it, whether through courage or changing their mind, icannot through courage or changing their mind, i cannot say. but many people have said we must do something and did not do it. so we will be talking about that something at one o'clock. and i look forward to seeing you there. barbara plett usher is in washington. can we talk a bit more about the way in which the president you think will present this intention of his and what do you expect more reaction to be like? well considering that he is breaking with long—standing us policy and the alarm expressed around the world, i think you will use this speech to try to reassure palestinians and european and arab allies that he is still committed to the peace process. this is what his officials have been saying. they have said this really is just a recognition of the reality that jerusalem functions as the capital of israel but the final status of the city, this announcement has nothing to do with that. all those things still need to be decided by negotiations. and that includes the palestinian claims to occupied jerusalem areas as their own capital. so we will see how clearly mrtrump capital. so we will see how clearly mr trump himself will spell that out, the other thing they have said, the officials commit is that he will save the us is prepared to support a two state solution if the israelis and palestinians agree to it. that is something that is not the categorical endorsement of the two state solution that the palestinians wa nt state solution that the palestinians want or previous governments have given. so given the previews we've received from us officials it does not sound to me like mr trump will be that convincing to those criticising this move. many thanks. our diplomatic correspondent james robbins is here. the president says it will be a big announcement, what does this signify if he goes ahead? i think almost impossible to exaggerate the significance of what the president is apparently going to do, to be the first nation to recognisejerusalem as the capital of israel. something that has never happened across 70 yea rs of its that has never happened across 70 years of its history. and potentially it is a game changer because so much of the substance of a two state solution negotiation is based on the idea that in the final pa rt based on the idea that in the final part of the talks, the very vexed question ofjerusalem will be addressed and only then. the president has pulled the rug from under all that and unsurprisingly has outraged both his allies and many arab countries in the region. king abdullah ofjordan today said and of course it was from jordan thatis and of course it was from jordan that is jerusalem and of course it was from jordan that isjerusalem was taken by israel. and jordan and the king of jordan are the guarantors of the holy sites ofjerusalem and this is what he said this afternoon. ignoring the palestinian muslim and christian right in jerusalem ignoring the palestinian muslim and christian right injerusalem will only fuel further extremism and undermine the war against terrorism. so very strong words from a man with a huge interest in the future of jerusalem. how do you square his insistence that he is fully behind the peace process with this decision, does it really boost the concerns of those you mentioned already, and when we look at the response beyond the middle east, russia for example, what is their perspective in this? russia has been waiting like many nations for president trump to actually spell out exactly what he means. but they have said they are concerned, but i think underlying all this is an assumption that president trump is trying to change the rules of the game on future negotiations. do not forget that through jared kushner and others, he apparently is trying to orchestrate an arab led negotiating process, trying to help and support the saudis in their effo rts and support the saudis in their efforts to kick—start some kind of peace process. but it comes at a time when the palestinian leadership is weak, israel feels itself to be very strong so time to do this. but just to underline, it could com pletely just to underline, it could completely change the picture people have of what is possible in terms of peace in the middle east.|j have of what is possible in terms of peace in the middle east. i think it is bound to because america has a lwa ys is bound to because america has always been seen as an honest broker in past efforts to bring an end to the conflict. just one example, no serving president ever went to the western wall injerusalem, they visited jerusalem, president obama asa visited jerusalem, president obama as a candidate went there but it was the president in office trump who went to the western wall breaking a long—standing tradition and doing something which he believes is not just —— he believes could be fruitful. thank you for that analysis and that speech coming up in the next hour. the headlines. the brexit secretary david davis reveals that the government has done no formal assessment on the impact of leaving the eu on the uk g the middle east as protest in the middle east as president trump prepares to recognise jerusalem instead president trump prepares to recognisejerusalem instead of tel aviv as the israeli capital. and a man has appeared in court in london accused of plotting to assassinate the prime minister and to bomb downing street. in sport england have gone down in the ashes series after a final day collapse in the second test, they lost their last six wickets for 57 runs to lose by 121 is against australia in adelaide. jo wood says they can still turn the series around. add three more british clubs in champions league action tonight. totten and manchester city already sure of the top spot in their groups. and after having her first child serena williams could return to action to defend her australian open title in melbourne next month. a full update in the next ten minutes or so. lets cross over to downing street where the lights on the christmas tree outside number 10 were switched on. if everyone can help us do this, we're going to do a count down from five. five, four, three, two, one. so that was just a few moments ago and children from potters bar in hertfordshire who will be singing some carols with the prime minister. the tree was grown in south wales. the tree was provided by robert morgan from swansea. he said it was great to be recognised by having history chosen. so just recognised by having history chosen. sojust a recognised by having history chosen. so just a few seconds of singing, we can listen to. # holy infant so tender and miles. # holy infant so tender and miles. # sleep in heavenly peace. # sleep in heavenly peace. # sleep in heavenly peace. lovely # sleep in heavenly peace. lovely lovely singing # sleep in heavenly peace. lovely singing there. a proud moment for them in downing street with the prime minister on that annual ceremony of lighting the christmas tree which is now outside downing street and of course we'll be there until christmas itself. a familiar feature on our television screens as lots of politics takes place with many comings and goings with brexit. but a welcome distraction probably for theresa may today with some nice carol singing outside number ten. let's carry on with some other news of the day. a man has appeared in court in london accused of a plot to bomb downing street and kill the prime minister. a second man has also appeared — charged with the preparation of terrorist acts. both suspects were detained last week — one in london and one in birmingham. our home affairs correspondent june kelly said the first hearing at westminster magistrates‘ court took place amid high security. in the dock we had these two men. the first naa'imur zakariyah rahman. he is 20—year—old british bangladeshi. it's claimed that he was planning to set off an improvised explosive device, in other words, a bomb at the gates of downing street. this at the junction with whitehall and then in the ensuing chaos, it's alleged he was planning to get into downing street equipped with a suicide vest and pepper spray and a knife and kill the prime minister. now, in the court documents it actually says, "with a view to try to kill the prime minister, the right honourable, theresa may mp." in the dock with him is his co—defendant, mohammed aqib imran. he is 21. a british pakistani. he is facing charges of preparing terrorist acts unrelated to downing street. these involve foreign travel and rahman, the first defendant is accused of helping imran in that endeavour. now both these men were arrested last week — one in birmingham. one in london. there were no pleas today because this is a first appearance. they have been remanded in custody and their next appearance will be at the old bailey on 20th december. june kelly with the latest on that case today. a man from lancashire has appeared in court charged with terrorism offences — including sharing the address of prince george's school with potential attackers. husnain rashid — who's 31 — was remanded in custody. it's alleged he used an encrypted messaging service to provide tips and suggested targets for attacks. one thousand firefighters are battling to contain huge wildfires in california. hundreds of buildings have already been destroyed and thousands more are threatened. the fire is burning in ventura county — about 50 miles north of los angeles. nearly 30,000 people have been forced to flee their homes. from california — our correspondent james cook reports. the wildfires are exploding with terrifying speed, driven by ferocious desert winds, whipping down the dusty canyons. this blaze ravaged the beach—side city of ventura and last night, itjumped the main coastal motorway, causing ten of four drivers. — terror. this is literally like 15 feet away from us right now. this is the cross. ok, hold on. we need to get out of here as soon as possible, that fire is right there. only one thing could stop the blaze, the pacific ocean. each fire leaves a trail of physical destruction and emotional damage, scores of families have seen their homes reduced the ash. all too often there is nothing left to say. all of a sudden, i see from the other side fire came to our side, so scary. i don't want it to happen to anybody. thanks god to the firefighters. it is not over yet. unless the wind dies down or the conditions died down, it's too fierce. these winds are just indescribable right now. another fire stalked the suburbs above los angeles itself, raining ash on the city of angels. millions were warned to stay inside as smoke filled the air. well, these firefighters have been working hard all night and into the day trying to save these houses. the battle was unsuccessful and the reason for that is the wind. it is still whipping around here with ferocity and it is driving this fire further down into the valley. this was how the fires looked from space, thick smoke streaming out to sea. and the outlook is not good, more intense winds are forecast in the coming days. it has barely rained here in la for six months and you can tell. many scientists say climate change is driving more frequent and more destructive wildfires. for california, this is yet another grim wake—up call. james cook, bbc news, los angeles. in the moment the reminder of the headlines and more on the offence today regarding the brexit process and evidence from david davis to that parliamentary committee. time for a look at the weather. here's sarah keith—lucas. at the moment we have something quite mild and breezy but storm caroline is on the way and we have an amberwarning caroline is on the way and we have an amber warning issued for some really strong wind likely to cause disruption across northern scotland with gusts of around 80 miles an hour. so the wind picking up this evening already, the rain sweeping south across much of the country. so thursday morning likely to be wet and windy. through the day the strongest of the wind get going during the morning rush hour across northern scotland and that is when we could see gusts of around 80 miles an hour. a windy day wherever you are but there could be disruption to travel and perhaps power networks across the far north. and temperatures turning a lot colder than they have been. so for the rest of the week wet and windy weather courtesy of storm caroline and then things turn much colder with some snow showers by the time we get to this is bbc news — the headlines. the brexit secretary, david davis, reveals the government has done no formal assessments of the impact of leaving the eu on the economy. also today on the brexit process, the prime minister speaks to the leader of the dup, arlene foster, who's objected to plans for the future of the irish border — and the irish taoiseach. protests in the middle east, as president trump prepares to recognise jerusalem, instead of tel aviv, as israel's capital. he said the announcement that he is set to make has been a long time coming. many presidents have said that they wanted to do something but did not do it. whether it was courage or whether changing their mind, icannot courage or whether changing their mind, i cannot tell you. a man appears in court, accused of plotting to assassinate the prime minister and bomb downing street. and wildfires force tens of thousands to flee their homes in southern california. at 5:32pm, let's catch up with all of today's sports news, joining olly foster... the england captainjoe root is trying to take the positives out of another crushing defeat in the ashes series. they are now 2—0 down with three to play after collapsing on the final day of the second test. from adelaide, here's our sports correspondent andy swiss... plays the great escape theme tune. they'd arrived with such optimism. england fans hoping to witness one of cricket's greatest comebacks. but within minutes, their hopes lay in tatters. second ball of the day, chris woakes caught behind. and even worse was to follow. england's captain and cornerstone, joe root, gone for 67. australia had their key man. and when moeen ali was trapped for just two, any last lingering hopes left with him. the rest was a formality. injust an hour and three quarters, england's dreams had been ruthlessly dispatched. oh, that's it! australia taking a 2—0 lead, while england try to take the positives. we've shown throughout the two games the periods that we can outperform australia. butjust not for five days. and that's going to be our challenge, really. the harsh reality of this defeat, though, is that england's ashes hopes are now hanging by a thread. if they lose the next match in perth, where they haven't won for nearly a0 years, it's all over. england haven't been able to match the pace of australia's bowlers, or the durability of their batsmen. and some believe there's no way back. our hopes are raised every now and again. we could have grabbed the initiative in brisbane but we were not good enough to do it. we've had a moment here where we've all been up a bit and maybe... but when it comes to the tough moments, they're better than us. so, no chance? i don't think so, no. and so, an all—too familiar story. england have now lost their last seven tests in australia. one more, and their ashes hopes will have turned to dust. andy swiss, bbc news, adelaide. it's the final round of group matches in the champions league. liverpool need just a point against spartak moscow tonight to reach the champions league knockout stage. if they get it, that would make it a record five english teams in the last 16 of the champions league. liverpool threw away a 3—0 lead to draw with sevilla in their last match so won't be taking anything for granted. a win would see them qualify as winners and potentially avoid more difficult ties in the knockout stage. the atmosphere can and should help us the atmosphere can and should help us tomorrow, we all know how special this place can be at specific moments, that is what i'm looking for. that's what i want, and hopefully what everybody knows. the other two english clubs playing tonight are sure of going through as group winners, manchester city are away at shaktar donetsk, tottenham are at wembley playing apoel nicosia. serena williams is targetting a return to court next month to defend her australian open title. she had herfirst child four months ago. the 36—year—old won in melbourne in january for a seventh time, her 23's grand slam singles title, while in the early weeks of pregnancy. it was her last tournament. the american michaeljoyce is going to bejohanna konta's new coach. joyce spent six years as part of maria sharapova's team and also worked with victoria azarenka earlier this year. ou can find more on all those stories on the bbc sport website and you'll also find coverage of the uk snooker championship from york... the fourth round match betweenjohn higgins and mark king has gone to a deciding frame... john higgins is the former world champion. he looks like he will reach the quarterfinals. i will be back with sportsday after the six o'clock news at 6:30pm. see you then! studio: srumo: olly studio: olly foster, thank you. let's return now to the expected announcement by president trump, that washington will break with decades of american policy on the middle east by recognising jerusalem as the capital of israel. mr trump is expected to authorise the process of moving the us embassy from tel aviv to jerusalem. the announcement is expected to be happening in the next 30 minutes or so. joining me now is avi shlaim, emeritus fellow of st antony‘s college and emeritus professor of international relations at the university of oxford. it is so good to have you with us, thank you for your expertise on this today. what is the background to this? this is an extremely irresponsible move on the part of president trump. irresponsible, and reckless. it amounts to a total reversal and an abrupt reversal of american policy towards the conflict, since 1967. because after the 1967 war, israel annexed east jerusalem. they are a part of jerusalem. they are a part of jerusalem. but the security council declared the israeli annexation null and void, and america was part of that. american policy, since 1967, has been consistent. that the israeli settlements on the west bank are illegal, all of them, and an obstacle are illegal, all of them, and an o bsta cle to are illegal, all of them, and an obstacle to peace. america has never recognised israel's right to have jerusalem as its capital. with that in mind, how will it affect political dynamics across the region, as we know they are fraught and extremely tense? region, as we know they are fraught and extremely tense ?|j region, as we know they are fraught and extremely tense? i believe that the regional background, the forces in the entire region, it explains this very bizarre move on the part of president trump. what is going on is the emergence of an alliance between the trump administration, israel, and the sunni arab states, especially saudi arabia, and the united arab emirates. it's a united front against iran. in this realignment of forces, the palestinian issue becomes fairly marginal. the palestinians do not have any bargaining power. this alliance is cemented by personal friendship between two important figures. jarrett trump —— jared kushner, trump's jewish son—in—law, who is also a committed zionist, whose foundation supports the settlements, the israeli settlements, the israeli settlements, on the west bank. he a the :—— b ,.,,g .—a—ii—.,.,,., prince. they§ both in their crown prince. they are both in their mid—30s, inexperienced and i would say irresponsible as well. mohammed bin salman is an unusually competitive saudi royal. he has brought the country to the verge of humanitarian catastrophe, and we only have president trump permits us the united deal on israel and palestine but we only have fake details to put together. my sense is that these two men are concocting that these two men are concocting that there will be a palestinian state in the gaza strip —— fake details. and bits of the west bank without territorial integrity —— vague details. it's a nonstarter and offensive to the palestinians. no palestinian leader, however moderate, would agree to even discuss such a plan. this is what everybody is telling president trump. mahmoud abbas, the president, warned him it would be an incendiary move and strengthen extremists and jihadis, and it would weaken america and isolate america, and it could spark off serious violence in the territories. king abdullah ofjordan has said the same thing to president trump. we have to remember that jordan and israel signed a peace treaty in 1994, and under this peace treaty, jordan has a special responsibility for the muslim holy places injury saloon. this recognition of eastjerusalem as israel's capital completely nullifies the responsibilities that jordan has and all of the other leaders have said the same thing. the organisation of islamic state said the same thing, that it would be provocative, in sentry and com pletely be provocative, in sentry and completely unjustifiable. but president trump, as has been one, does not listen to anyone and he does not listen to anyone and he does what he feels like doing regardless of consequences. thank you very much for sharing your analysis today, thank you very much. avi shlaim, emeritus fellow of st antony‘s college and emeritus professor of international relations at the university of oxford. good to have him with us today. some breaking news, the state department asking officials to defer nonessential travel to israel, jerusalem and the west bank until later this month. asking officials to defer nonessential travel to israel, jerusalem and the west bank until later this month. that is presumably because they anticipate that there will be some turbulence surrounding this? indeed, this move by president trump amounts to possibly putting the match to the barrel of gunpowder. there is so much tension and conflict in this area that this could spark another intifada, which was sparked by a real —— which had a lot of violence and casualties which lasted for five yea rs. and casualties which lasted for five years. this could spark a third intifada. avi shlaim, it's good of you to respond to that. thank you. more on our main story now... more on the main story. the brexit secretary, david davis, has told mps the government has made no systematic assessment of the economic impact of leaving the european union. the information came to light this morning when mr davis was questioned by mps on the exiting the eu committee. the labour mp, steven kinnock, a member of the committee, said that david davis had previously told them that detailed assessments were available. previously told them that detailed assessments were availablem previously told them that detailed assessments were available. if these impact assessments never existed, why on earth was the house allowed to pass a motion unanimously, which the speaker ruled as binding, specifically asking the government to produce impact assessments. why was the government allowing us to do that if those impact assessments never existed? i'm that if those impact assessments never existed ? i'm afraid that if those impact assessments never existed? i'm afraid david davis is either guilty of misleading the house or being in contempt of parliament for not producing documents that do exist and after today's hearing, i'm afraid we are none the wiser. that was labour mp steven kinnock, a member of that parliamentary committee. we will now be speaking to another member, conservative mp jacob be speaking to another member, conservative mpjacob rees—mogg, joining us from westminster. what did you make of david davis's evidence today? i thought it was clear that they carried out broad assessments, which is what ministers had said in the houses of parliament previously but they had not carried out specific impact assessments which have a technical meaning. the motion put down by the labour party, the humble address, was incompetent as it asked for something that did not exist. ministers cannot ask for something which does not exist. and your colleagues, notjust in other parties but in your parties too, have misunderstood the nature of an impact assessment? there are different points, the question of what a humble address mint, the binding has to be acted upon, the speaker reaffirmed that and there was the question of whether it was helpful to release confidential information in the middle of a negotiation and then the resolution of the house asking for something that had not been done. when you put all of that together you have quite all of that together you have quite a confused picture which i am glad to say achieved great clarity this morning, that there were no impact assessments, and therefore the humble address can only be effective in terms of the generosity of the government in providing the information it has provided. on the 2nd of february this year, david davis said that we continue to analyse the impact of our exit across the breadth of the uk economy covering more than 50 sectors, he said that in february. the previous october, just over a year ago, you said "we are in the midst of carrying out 57 sets of analysis, each of which are implications for individual parts of the economy". can you blame people for the thinking that the government was working on impact assessments? you have to be clear in the terminology you are using. that has a specific meaning within the civil service, that was the flaw in the motion put down, that of course the government is looking at what is happening in various sectors and the word " i m pa ct" various sectors and the word "impact" is often used to mean not an impact assessment, i can understand why people were confused but if you look at the quotations from the government, it is quite clear the government never suggested impact assessments in the technical sense had been carried out. the 20th of october this year, steven gethin is of the snp, will the secretary of state tell us what assessment he or the department has made of leaving the department has made of leaving the eu on the uk economy, david davis answered that we have in place and assessment of 51 sectors of the economy. the question was about the impact of leaving the eu on the uk economy. you need to be clear on that, just because somebody puts the phrase impact and assessment into a question, that does not mean that the answer is admitting the basis of the answer is admitting the basis of the question. he could have corrected it. in his response he clearly says "sexual assessments". not impact assessments, you are jumping by assuming what was said by mr gethin ‘s was the same as the reply by mr davies. in all honesty i'm trying to rely on the clips i've taken from hansard, the record of parliamentary proceedings. you've made your point very clearly. do you think that voters have the right to know what kind of impact brexit would have on the economy, according to the government's best destination? i think all of these attem pts destination? i think all of these atte m pts to destination? i think all of these attempts to assess it are wrong but if you look at the rubbish put out by the treasury, before the referendum when they said we would lose between 500000 and 800,000 jobs, simply on the basis of voting to leave the eu, i'm glad there are not these impact assessments because they are no better than guesswork and a waste of everyone's time. i hope the treasury remains ashamed of the information they put out before the information they put out before the referendum. so should listeners and viewers today, would they be right to say that you are saying the impact would be dreadful or it could be rather good? i am saying that government are not lost ravenous, they do not have the ability to make long—term accurate assessments, not that nostradamus was very accurate! the government needs to make calculations based on understanding and their principles of what they think will work. nobody has a pure vision of the future, that governments had to use the evidence they've got to draw intelligent conclusions. impact assessments and forecasts never turn out to be that accurate. and on sectoral analysis, thatis accurate. and on sectoral analysis, that is what we've been talking about and what you have underlined, do people have a right to know what is in them? the government made the sexual analysis available, mine is commercially sensitive information that may damage negotiations to the select committee. —— minus commercially sensitive information. the committee will be looking at how much can be made public without damaging negotiations. the british public is extremely sensible and wa nts to public is extremely sensible and wants to know information that will not obstruct negotiations. i don't think anybody in this country wants to know things that would make negotiations harder for the government to carry out, and indeed asi government to carry out, and indeed as i understand it, that is the position of sir keir starmer in the labour party. they think it is reasonable for the government not to reveal information that may have an immediate effect on negotiations. jacob rees—mogg, thank you very much for joining jacob rees—mogg, thank you very much forjoining us. jacob rees—mogg, a member of the parliamentary select committee and part of the conservative party. we will be expecting president trump to make that announcement recognising jerusalem as the capital of israel, overturning decades of us policy and breaking international agreement on this issue, as james robbins was pointing out to us earlier on. officials in the white house so that he is prepared to secure a two state solution if palestinians and israelis agree to that. speaking earlier at a news conference, king abdullah ofjordan said that this underscore the urgent need for a middle east peace settlement. palestine continues to be the region of central issue, there is no alternative to the two state solution and jerusalem is key to any peace agreement, and is key to any peace agreement, and is key to the stability of the entire region. i did emphasise to the us president yesterday our concerns on the decision to move the us embassy tojerusalem. therefore, it is imperative now to work fast, to reach a final status solution and a peace agreement between palestinians and israelis. that news conference took place just a short while ago and the message there is clear. joining me now from jerusalem is bbc arabic‘s issam ikirmawi. thank you forjoining us. what is your assessment of the likely impact of this announcement today? well, the palestinian authorities have come out against moving the embassy tojerusalem. come out against moving the embassy to jerusalem. they've come out against moving the embassy tojerusalem. they've made it clear they are unhappy with the decision and that president trump should only ta ke and that president trump should only take such a decision if there was comprehensive agreement between the israelis and the palestinians. jerusalem is recognised as the capital of the future of the palestinian state. they see this unilateral decision by president trump isa unilateral decision by president trump is a setback for his own effo rts trump is a setback for his own efforts to kick—start the peace process. the american administration has been working on the so—called altima deal between the israelis and palestinians, and there have been reports that this deal would be announced sometime next year. however, this latest announcement by president trump, to move the embassy from tel aviv to jerusalem and recognise it as the capital of israel, according to palestinians and many states, it is a setback. israel, according to palestinians and many states, it is a setbackm their surprise that the timing of it. a lot of people have known what president trump's view on this has been for a while. we heard earlier that the timing could not be worse, what is their view on the timing of this? absolutely, many people are surprised by the timing, considering jared kushner and jason reed have been going back and forth, touring the region and speaking to other arabs, for the last three months, working out some sort of agreement. now president trump has decided to go ahead with moving the embassy, just weeks before the new initiative is due to be announced. many have been taken by surprise, it was expected that he would sign a waiver, he has signed it once before, and former presidents have been signing since 1995 with congress, there was the issue of resolution urging the american government to move their embassy from tel aviv to jerusalem. many palestinians and arabs believe it is against international law. jerusalem considered it an occupied territory. by considered it an occupied territory. by moving the embassy tojerusalem means the americans are not in keeping with international law. we are expecting the president to make an announcement shortly. thank you for giving us the latest from jerusalem. as we've been hearing us officials have said that donald trump is to recognisejerusalem as the capital of israel. it isa it is a very significant announcement, as we have been underlining. it breaks the tradition of us diplomatic policy, going back decades. there are fears that moving the us embassy tojerusalem from tel aviv could provoke violence too. that's the scene at the white house where president trump is likely to speak, we are expecting that to happen ina speak, we are expecting that to happen in a few minutes time, we will bejoining our happen in a few minutes time, we will be joining our colleagues happen in a few minutes time, we will bejoining our colleagues on bbc world news for full details and coverage of the announcement, which will be madejust in coverage of the announcement, which will be made just in the white house inafew will be made just in the white house in a few moments time. by the way, infour minutes, in a few moments time. by the way, in four minutes, we have bbc news at six o'clock coming up with george alagiah, but our colleagues will be covering that event for you. this promises to be a very significant and far reaching announcement by president trump. stand—by for that. i will be back later with the news at ten o'clock. meanwhile, sarah keith—lucas has the some pretty disruptive weather on the cards. storm caroline pushing into the uk. it will bring in some stronger winds, especially in northern areas. this area of cloud is pushing in towards the north. warnings in force, and amber warning in parts of scotland. here we could have winds of 80 miles an hour, or even more, enough to cause disruption to travel and power networks. a yellow further south, where we could have winds of 70 miles an hour. it's a very windy speu 70 miles an hour. it's a very windy spell of weather on the way, we have seen those winds picking up from a south—westerly direction, rain coming in south eastwards across the country. cloud and rain is moving south—eastwards and winds are strong by the time we get to thursday morning. it will be mild and frost free with the strength of the wind and with cloud and rain. it will be across northern parts of scotland where we have tight isobars here, the strongest of those winds will be there in association with storm caroline. through tomorrow morning rush hour, 70—80 miles an hour gusts through the central lowlands and further north, haps even higher than that. stronger winds across northern ireland. wherever you are, it's a windy story. the rain clears from the south—east and brings the strongest winds away from here. for all of us, a return to sunny skies and cold conditions with wintry showers filtering in on that really strong northerly wind. no showers for scotland. sleet and snow in northern ireland, and into north wales. temperatures significantly colder than they have been. that's the story as we look towards the end of the week. storm caroline clears towards the north—east. still tight isobars, a windy spell of weather and winds coming in from a northerly direction. right from the arctic on the cold air spilling south across the cold air spilling south across the uk, bringing in a different feel to the weather by the time we get friday. friday has wintry sunshine but also snow showers across scotland, northern ireland, some filtering through wales and into the midlands. there could be a flurry of snow down towards the london region. temperatures on the chilly side. with wind chill it will feel subzero wherever you are over friday. a lot going on in the weather. it will be very wet and windy in association with storm caroline, things stay cold with further showers and a risk of ice by the weekend. tonight at 6: warnings of new unrest in the middle east after president trump pledges a radical change in us policy. he says he'll recognisejerusalem as israel's capital — that's caused anger among palestinians and alarmed us allies, but mr trump says it's time. many presidents have said they want to do something and did not. many presidents have said they want to do something and did notm many presidents have said they want to do something and did not. it has drawn huge criticism around the world. fury amongst palestinians. the us is delivering a lethal bullet to the heart of the two state solution. this is the scene at the white house. the announcement will come in the next few minutes. we will have all reaction from around the world on the key decision.