an attack on the sufi community, a spiritualform of an attack on the sufi community, a spiritual form of islam, an attack on the sufi community, a spiritualform of islam, which isis sees as a direct rival. they bring oui’ sees as a direct rival. they bring our youngsters from this idea that islam can be only violence, they are non—violent and spiritual, silly are a direct rival. the fact they are attacking them with such force is pretty scary. the second point that i would think is important is that egypt is a very strong country, and what we are seeing here is that this kind of strong military response does not work against isis. that is another scary aspect of what has happened. so probably, we need really to think what we need to change in our fight really to think what we need to change in ourfight against really to think what we need to change in our fight against this extremism. alex, your concern about the aftermath of this, what happens next as a result? i think the point about sufism was spot on. those who view islam as sort of monolithic faith where everyone thinks the same, that is not true. this sort of thing demonstrates that. divisions within islam are as important between the divisions between islam and other faiths. but the other aspect i take on this, this is very early days but this demonstrates once again that the threat posed by isis and islamist terror is notjust a western problem, it is a problem for every nation around the world. where i made them are from what annalisa was saying was that must inevitably, when someone wants to do something —— nothing but kill you, it almost inevitably has a military response. i don't know if the egyptians got it right so far, but i think a lot of people you can negotiate with. there is no other settlement you can reach with these people other than violence. stephany, your take on that? president rcc has justified stephany, your take on that? president rcc hasjustified his crackdown by saying he must crush isis. he has a major security problem on the sinai peninsula, and he really does need to rethink their strategy because up until now you have not seen her tax, egyptian militants attack coptic christians, this is a game changer and they need to go back to the drawing board and rethink. there is a concern that the crackdown in egypt will go even further, and this is a really delicate balancing act he needs to strike. i disagree with political crackdown on freedom of expression but one of the reasons people act as they do in this region is that they know that if they do not put their owi'i know that if they do not put their own house in order, the israelis are always willing to do so. sinai is a particular area of sensitivity. but the israelis and the end have no respect for national borders if they think something is a threat to them. how can they see islamist activity like this and not take action? we will see how this develops in the coming days. doubtless that will be continuing coverage of that story on bbc news in the coming days. so, to events earlier this week, and britain's chancellor, philip hammond, delivered his budget, with announcements about housing and the health service, and £3 billion set aside for brexit preparations. his performance was broadly well received, but the forecasts for growth in the economy over the next few years are bleak. and all of this, of course, against the backdrop of the stuttering brexit talks. stephanie — let's talk about the obr forecast. for the next few years, it is difficult times. it is, and most of the reasons they downgraded the growth forecast is down to acknowledging that the forecasts for productivity growth have been off target. they have missed those forecasts again and again. i think this was a politically successful budget for philip hammond, it has saved him in the short term, but it did outline a very bleak low growth future for the uk. her by wages will be below 2008 levels for the foreseeable future. i think that is really the main lytic will challenge that they face, that is only going to get worse. —— political challenge. it has been made worse by brexit because we have the ball in sterling and a rise in inflation which has meant that wages just before the vote, we had just turned the corner in terms of which is outpacing inflation and now all those gains have been wiped out. the stats on wages, they are saying until, even by 2022, wages will not be any better than they were in 2008. that will start to bite as time goes on politically. i think he has done the best he could do by sprinkling bits of money here and there, trying to assuage any critics, a bit to the nhs, a bit for housing, first—time buyers and the like, but the significant thing is that the old br forecast did not will include brexit in the calculations. for instance on productivity, most economists think brexit will make the productivity probably even worse. we have already seen probably even worse. we have already seen a probably even worse. we have already seen a decline in business investment because of the uncertainty over the terms of the deal. and likewise, they sing ta riffs deal. and likewise, they sing tariffs on imported goods, that will mean higher prices for consumers, lower tax revenues. and i keep going back to the figure that was used during the campaign of 350 million extra, per week for the nhs and now we're facing a squeeze on public services. instead of trying to balance the books, hammond has actually acquiesced and decided to just borrow more in order to keep the peace. was that his only option? alex, what is your reading of that balancing act? there is a lot to unpack. i think productivity is a problem facing most developed countries but it is certainly an issue. i thought it was a good budget. i think he is relatively constrained in what he can do, not least because some would argue that what this country needs is some tax cuts to generate economic stimulus and in the current political climate, those are difficult to sell. the conservative party does not have a majority because of an election it did not have to call. so thatis election it did not have to call. so that is the context for this chancellor. but bearing those constraints on mine, i thought there we re constraints on mine, i thought there were some attractive things about this budget. i thought that extra tax credits for research and a moment indicated positivity about the future in economic terms. that is something i thought is very welcome. and it was the kind of thing that was lacking in the campaign that the conservative party ran earlier in the year. there was very little that was positive or optimistic about the future. thinking about that sort of thing, i thought, was excellent. and retail politics is always important, i really liked more funding for schools when students take up further maths and higher maths studies, i thought there was an indication that we were serious about supporting tough subjects that equip people for the future. stefanie, your take on a? obviously from a german perspective, the 27 do not look so much at the political significance because hammond was not ina good significance because hammond was not in a good position because he was a remainerand has had in a good position because he was a remainer and has had a difficult time surviving. a lot of people in his own party are not so keen on him. but in germany, it is a time of confirming that britain itself has kicked itself in a difficult situation economically because there is so much uncertainty about brexit ata time is so much uncertainty about brexit at a time when you look at the teu 27 and germany, growth is picking up everywhere and the uk is going the opposite way. some people might think this isjust confirming that brexit was the wrong decision. alex, you think it is happening everywhere? in terms of productivity. the problem is that europe is picking up growth, it is growing, and britain is going down. so the old br think —— 0bi are, they qualified the drop by 1.3 this year. —— the qualified the drop by 1.3 this year. -- the obr. qualified the drop by 1.3 this year. —— the obr. by qualified the drop by 1.3 this year. -- the obr. by 2020 qualified the drop by 1.3 this year. —— the obr. by 2020 there will be 20 billion less in the coppers of the state, and this is without considering the fact brexit. so getting out of the single market, getting out of the single market, getting less investment in, and possibly a no deal situation, that means that the macro picture of the economy in britain is very, very bleak. that is untrue, manufactory is at an all—time high. —— manufacturing. gdp is fine, certainly compared to the rivals we face in developed countries. we were touching on wage levels. people employed in the gig economy, the uncertainty. most of the new jobs generated under this government are full—time, any suggestion they are kind of part—time or zero hours work isa kind of part—time or zero hours work is a mess. but moreover, some of the kind of totemic indicators people talk about is if they are true, —— as if they are true, they are just not. more eu nationals than ever in the uk. this is the obr, which is made of confident people, and they are forecasting 20 billion less by 2020. without taking into account brexit or crashing out of the single market. this is not a pretty picture. you have been saying this sort of thing since you made your breakthrough disaster movie documentary. annelise is making the point that the 0br is independent. let alex just come back. we were told before the referendum that by the same sorts of august bodies that if we voted to liebenberg triggering a profound economic shocks and go into recession. not only have we not come into recession, our economy continues to grow. that is the case with most economies around the world. most of these dire predictions that people seem to want to be true about our country simply not true. that is because brexit has not true. that is because brexit has not ta ken place not true. that is because brexit has not taken place yet. why do you keep saying you want to see 350 million for the nhs when that suggestion was all about when we leave and we haven't left? we will leave that there. germany is without a government — chancellor angela merkel is technically acting chancellor, because talks about forming a coalition following september's splintered election result have not been fruitful. as we go to air, it seem the spd leader martin schulz has softened his position, and talks will resume, but nothing is certain — could there be another german election? we all know what the knock—on effect might be. where do you think talks are? crystal ball time. it is a difficult thing. it is a very fluid situation. 0n difficult thing. it is a very fluid situation. on monday, martin schulz said categorically they are not going into a coalition against, now it is saturday and he has said, well, we have to consider it, because it is our responsibility. someone has twisted his arm. people within the party but mainly president steinmeier, he obviously said, this is a moment of great responsibility for your party so martin schulz yesterday was as a youth congress of his party and tried to sell the idea and it did not go well. very much so within the party for the time being it looks like a majority does not want it. they will have a vote on this so even they will have a vote on this so evenif they will have a vote on this so even if the top of the party might agree to go into coalition with angela merkel, the party members might vote it down. so it is tricky. it could have that situation where for several weeks on paper, the coalition has been agreed, but your senseisit coalition has been agreed, but your sense is it could be voted down? at the end of the day it looks like the spd will always be the losers because even by this situation, a new election is triggered, they will be hammered in the polls. they will be hammered in the polls. they will be seen as not wanting to take responsibility. angela merkel could ta ke responsibility. angela merkel could take a step back again, and is now watching everybody collapsing around her. everyone is in trouble. but be careful about this, because they are saying in the party they want to have a change of leadership and it is growing by the day. didn't she say she preferred fresh elections to a minority government? it is not clear that that will result in a stronger government. it is a real gamble for her, especially given that the last elections, the cdu and the spd share of the vote went down. despite the fact that the german economy now is booming, that is the most remarkable disconnect. but i think clearly, angela merkel is a wounded finger at it is all the more remarkable because a couple of months ago, she seemed invincible, she was the european leader who took down trump and seemed to be the woman in the driving seat in europe on brexit. and now it looks like she will remain distracted by internal domestic politics. for the perceivable future. and at the risk of bringing it back to the uk, it is a german internal situation, but we have this, the brexit talks are a backdrop inevitably, angela merkel portrayed as the calm hand on the tiller to all of this, the heart of europe where the people —— whether people like it or not. if this continues, or they have fresh elections, what does it do to the brexit talks? it does not bode well for brexit or for the rest of europe either. if germany is paralysed until february, maybe later, waiting for new elections, that is a disaster for everybody. because we do not have only the problem of the brexit negotiations, we have a lot of other things going on with the trump administration behaving as it is, with russia's instability and belligerence, instability growing around europe, not to have a strong leadership as we are hoping to have after the election, it is a big problem. is it worrying, alex? i am much more optimistic about the lack of government activity. i think people tend to get on better. belgium was without a government with russia for 18 months and it is the best economic performance were decades. i was surprised that angela merkel put so much effort into the attempt to build a coalition that i thought was not going to work. the so—called jamaica coalition, black, yellow and green, because it seemed it would not work out between the old liberals, who are four more free—market than most people, and the greens, who like most green movements are like watermelons, green on the outside, red in the centre, very anti—free—market. they we re never centre, very anti—free—market. they were never really going to be on the same page. ithink were never really going to be on the same page. i think she were never really going to be on the same page. ithink she is were never really going to be on the same page. i think she is going to go back to the polls. like having a coalition with the dup! the problem we see in germany is something we will see in other countries, we will see it in italy with the next elections, the fragmentation of the voters. this is irreversible. not in the uk, more than 85% voted for two parties. you are making the point of that and lots of countries it has proved to be the case. in britain, regardless of the system, it locks in one government or the other, still the tories failed to find a majority. so they had to make a deal with the dup. so the biggest picture of what is going on is, are our democracy is capable and ready to face what is happening in the minds of the voters? in germany that is a very important point, we do not want a grand coalition because we didn't have an opposition in germany, when we had the refugee crisis, there was an overall feeling that we need a stronger position in parliament, if this is not happening, we get more votes for the right—wing party, that is why i think many people are wary of another coalition and we might have the same situation. we will be discussing this in the weeks to come, for sure. let's turn our attention is further afield. there was euphoria in harare as emmerson mnangagwa was sworn in as zimbabwe's president. he told the 60,000 people packed into the national stadium in the capital that elections will be held next year, and he promised to stamp out corruption. robert mugabe had ruled for 37 years. how different will the new president be, annalisa? what are the panellists' thoughts? here 75, with a short break in the mid—90s he has been a minister since 1980, which is before some of your more fortunate viewers will have been born. he is hardly the freshfaced champion of new values and ideas. my other concern about president is that in a week that he has been lucky when he committed his own massacre , or has been lucky when he committed his own massacre, or presided over it. when he served as minister for security, he presided over the persecution of minority people in zimbabwe, and the international association of genocide scholars puts the figure of deaths at around 20,000. ican puts the figure of deaths at around 20,000. i can only concede he seems to have got away with it, because he has avoided responsibility, although almost everyone concerned thinks he is responsible, and because of the timing. but let us not pretend he is a good guy. for once, i agree with alex! remember, he is still under us sanctions, and i think people forget that, he was so tied to mugabe and his regime that the us government sanctioned him. there are still us sanctions against a number of big zimbabwe companies, and for him to succeed, he will really need to unlock funding on the international financial community, from the imf and the world bank and others, in order to survive. the economy is trashed. it is on its knees, it hasn't had its own currency for eight years. i think we will not really know whether what kind of leader he will be until the next elections, is he capable of holding truly free and fair elections? does he realise it is in his own self—interest to sort out not only talk the talk but walk the walk, really follow through on these policies in order to unlock the funding to try to rescue the economy? the responsibility of the international community, stephanie was reminding us that zimbabwe is crippled by debt, it needs urgently something to help it cope with 9 billion debt. so the problem was that mugabe was in the same situation many, many times and he ke pt situation many, many times and he kept being bailed out without really proper strict conditions put on him. so the question will be really, the re st of so the question will be really, the rest of the world, being strong enough to say, fine, you can get help, but this time, you need to do something to reform. and what of the role of the opposition? guests around this table last week said the mdc absolutely have its game, have to be united, particularly if we are really going to see fresh elections next year. there has to be an opposition as well to have a democratic election. and there will be fears, so how will this collection evolve? will it be dominated by balance will be free and fair? —— by violence. what does the international community do? this man's nickname is the crocodile, so he knows he has manipulated... he knows how to manipulate that system. ifi knows how to manipulate that system. if i were a minority person in zimbabwe, i would view this coming president, this new presidency, as bad news, because at least when you faced mugabe, you thought there was going to come a time when it finishes. this is the new guy, it is meet the new boss, same as the old boss. the same person who has been persecuting you since the 1980s. so the euphoria we saw on the streets in harare this week... it is natural to show relieved to see mugabe go, and the massacres which were inflicted on the minority in zimbabwe were not against them, so see mugabe go was per se a good thing but this is the ultimate continuity candidate. he hasjust done three years as vice president. people will say when it was not a military? , people will say when it was not a military?, whereas he was the actual military?, whereas he was the actual military guy, they pushed mugabe out and brought him back. he remains indebted to the military for that power that he has gained. but in previous situations, we have seen sometimes the military holding the power, and definitely with the fall of mugabe, there is a sense that this kind of corrupted regime cannot go on any more. so sometimes you might see that the transition guy thatis might see that the transition guy that is remote controlled by the military might actually assist, because he knows the system might actually assist the transition to a more modern country. we wait to see. a degree of agreement! that's all we have time for this week. dojoin us again, same time, same place, next week. but for now, thank you for watching and goodbye. hello there. autumn is doing a very good impression of winter this weekend. certainly as far as the weather that is concerned, because some of us started today looking like this, a blanket of snow for this weather watcher in the derbyshire peaks. stirling started off with some snow on the ground, but a beautiful sunrise. and generally speaking, the further east you are today, this was north—east england earlier on, the fewer showers you will see, the more in the way of sunshine you will get, on what will, for all of us, be a cold and windy day. the wind is particularly strong across northern scotland, gales likely here. showers continuing to feed in towards the north—west. the further east you are, fewer showers, more of that crisp autumn sunshine to enjoy. so here's a closer look at this afternoon's weather. across northern scotland, we'll continue to see some rain, but some sleet and some snow over high ground. very windy in the far north and temperatures struggling. three degrees in inverness, three in glasgow. that's about the best you can expect. still some wintry showers into northern ireland, north—west england, into the midlands and wales. most of the snow over the hills and the mountains at this stage, at lower levels, more likely rain. some of those showers will be heavy, but not many showers getting into the south—east. here, a lot of dry weather. some of these showers continue to feed in across the south—west. and over the hills and the moors, still the potential for some snow. as we head on through this evening and tonight, the showers continue to affect western areas particularly. further east, staying largely dry with clear spells. more of a breeze than there was last night, so it may not turn quite as chilly. towns and cities close to freezing, the countryside a little below, i still think there will be quite a widespread frost to take us into tomorrow morning. 0n first glance, tomorrow is repeat performance. lots of crisp sunshine, largely dry in the east, some showers in the west. but then things start to change. cloud rolls in towards northern ireland and western fringes. we'll see more persistent rain here late in the day. with that, temporarily, the temperatures begin to nudge upwards a little bit. some slightly milder air will be associated with this set of weather fronts swinging through during sunday night, bringing outbreaks of rain. but as soon as this frontal system clears away, we get back into the cold air. so, temporarily milder in the south on monday, but on tuesday and through the week ahead, it looks chilly with a mix of sunshine and wintry showers. this is bbc news. i'm shaun ley. the headlines at midday: after a massacre at a mosque kills more than 300, the egyptian military carries out air strikes on islamist militants. police say they want to speak to two men after an altercation on a tube platform sparked mass panic in central london. the actress emma thompson joins a demonstration in north—west london in support of nazanin zaghari—ratcliffe, the british—iranian woman jailed in iran. this is our community and one of our community has been imprisoned without trial, has been separated from her child. the situation is desperate. and england reach the rugby league world cup final — but onlyjust. he has lost it and england have won it.

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