had to be rescued from their homes. a deal means that thousands of rohingya muslims who fled bangladesh may be able to return home to myanmar. do headers harm your health? thousands of former professional footballers are taking part in a study to find out the long—term impact. the 70th ashes series is under way in australia with england so far doing better than many expected. and coming up on sportsday, all change in england's rugby union team. captain dylan hartley is on the bench for the first time under head coach eddiejones. good evening and welcome to the bbc news at six. the uk is in danger of losing almost 20 years of growth in earnings — that's the stark warning from the institute of fiscal studies after yesterday's budget. the independent think—tank says the squeeze on living standards in the past ten years is unprecedented and warned that the economic outlook is "grim". it says there's no imminent end to austerity and government borrowing is now expected to rise for another fifty years. —— decades. the chancellor, philip hammond, said he hoped to prove the forecasts wrong and insisted his budget yesterday was a package for families feeling the pressure. 0ur economics editor kamal ahmed reports it can all seem distant. the treasury, the government department that publishes the budget but what this grand office of state says matters for all of us today it became clear why. the budget‘s major growth downgrade reveals the amount we earn has not increased in a decade and however hard we work and however far we travel and stagnant wages could be with this into the next decade. 0ut shopping in essex, adele and her daughter emily. it is a struggle making ends meet. adele and her daughter emily. it is a struggle making ends meetlj adele and her daughter emily. it is a struggle making ends meet. i have been working years have not had a pay rise and i now have a child. everything else is gone up, food has gone up. we are constantly getting told this and that is going up but nothing else is going up with it.|j asked the head of the institute for fiscal studies why it mattered. economic forecasts may not sound important but when they meet your earnings and living standards will be lower than expected it is time to listen. earnings in the early 2020s will be below where they were in 2008, making it the worst decade for living standards in living memory and a long time before that. the prime minister visiting a college for trainee builders. she knows she has to convince people like adele she is on her side. the chancellor andi she is on her side. the chancellor and i agree the budget was about jobs for people up and down the country, ensuring people are in work with income for their family and building the homes they need and ensuring we seize opportunities for the future. the effort to seize opportunities of the future has to ove i’co m e opportunities of the future has to overcome a major hurdle, the living standards squeeze. at the time of the financial crisis average earnings were £24,500 and fell sharply as the financial crisis bit. look how slow the recovery has been. even by 2022 people will earn less on average than ten years ago. that is the key question, why aren't real incomes rising? there are a number of a nswers. incomes rising? there are a number of answers. the governments of many decades of whichever party have failed to invest in the things that matter, like other skills. the financial crisis that sucked so much money out of the financial system and the businesses themselves. some of which seem to prefer to rely on cheap labour, rather than investing in machinery that would make them more efficient and their employees wealthier. for the government opponents, there are those deep—seated economic problems. opponents, there are those deep—seated economic problemsm opponents, there are those deep-seated economic problems. it is those delivering key services, nurses, midwives, firefighters, teachers, who are worse off than they were a decade ago. there is nothing here that can be considered remotely strong. people have been helped the tories say with record employment levels and higher living wage. tonight the government was putting the finishing touches to the next effort at boosting the economy. the industrial strategy. stand—by for that week. the chancellor insists his budget will address britain's problems with productivity despite the gloomy forecasts for economic growth. but low productivity is one of the biggest factors behind the poor outlook for growth. our business editor simon jack considers what's been going wrong. it is the word of the week, baby the decade. it means the value of work done per worker per hour and if it goes up the economy grows and so do pay and living standards. when it doesn't, they don't. right now, it isn't. when people hear our productivity is low and some wonder if workers are being accused of being lazy but it is not that, i could be the best typist and hardest working person but there would be a limit to how ministers i could write. to really get things done and be more productive, i need one of these. it is a problem britain's biggest companies recognise. the data suggests we have a productivity problem and it has flat lined the last few years. everybody recognises that. i think both and indeed education in general, we all have a sta ke education in general, we all have a stake in making that and fixing that. the government answer has been to get big companies like bt to pay half a per cent of their wage bill into an apprenticeship kitty that smaller companies can use. the latest figures show it is not working. this time last year 117,000 people started an apprenticeship and the same time this year the number was only 68,000, a fall of 59%. what is going wrong? the implementation of the policy has been diabolical with an inflexible approach to training, a 10% charge to employers when they had it for free and the procurement process, all three have caused problems which is why the w7, * f f $ have ffff f f f $ have fallen. ”ff f f f $ have fallen. the ”ff f f f $ to to to i to university always wanted me to go to university but i tell her it does not give you the best thing ever, so going to university gives you a degree which is good, but doing an apprenticeship, you are paid, get a better opportunity, learn skills and meet new people. if we are to tackle the productivity puzzle we need an increase in training which means getting people doing apprenticeships in the right areas and industries. it is one of the top three issues members tell us they want solved. the government said it remains committed to providing 3 million apprenticeships by 2020. to hit the target, the plan may need a rewrite. joining me from westminster, is our political editor laura kuenssberg. the forecasts are grim but is the chancellor hoping more clarity on brexit could change that? looking at what we have learned there is not much for him to be cheery about with the tories‘ original economic plans yea rs off the tories‘ original economic plans years off and the picture in the next few years looking glum. in the background there are questions over brexit, will it have a good or bad effect? they hover over everything in westminster. in the political scores, ministers felt there were two big things to get right before christmas after a bad summer and autumn for the tories and the first was to get through a budget unscathed and the second to persuade the rest of the eu to talk about business in the future and a really critical summit meeting that will ta ke critical summit meeting that will take place just before christmas. in the last 24 hours they feel in government they have achieved the first task, not that they have sorted out all the economic problems, but they have got through a huge day like the budget and avoided banana skins. the second part, that is a hugejob of avoided banana skins. the second part, that is a huge job of work to be done. theresa may goes to brussels tomorrow to press the flesh and dangle a new and improved financial offer, a hypothetical check will be put on the table to try to persuade the brussels establishment and the 27 other countries that by christmas the uk and everyone else can agree it is time to talk about the future. that isa time to talk about the future. that is a huge and vital pressure for the prime minister, and compared to getting through a budget without big m ista kes getting through a budget without big mistakes it might feel a lot harder. thank you. dozens of people had to be rescued from their homes in parts of cumbria and lancashire last night after heavy rainfall caused flooding. more than 70 people were helped to safety after the emergency services received hundreds of calls. a number of flood warnings are still in place. 0ur correspondent danny savage is in the village of galgate in lancashire. this time last night the rain was falling hard and water levels were rising, soon to flood out properties behind me. the water has gone and the hope is that the colder, drier weather moving in will hang around and allow water levels in rivers and the ground to drop off significantly. the worry in the long—term is that this is the start another long, wet winter. what do you think? this isn't the sound a mixing desk is supposed to make. this recording studio at the back of a house in galgate in lancaster has been ruined by the flooding, its owners caught out by the rapid rise of the water. my husband has a studio at the back of the house where he does his music. the warning was the people on the street going, we need some help. the conditions around here last night were dreadful. there came a point when we were bucketing it out, bailing it out we had pumps going. there came a point where it was bucket versus river and the river won and it is now like this. so i have lifted as much as i can from the ground floor, but there are bikes down there, my cooker has gone, my boiler, my washing machine, my dishwasher, everything. further north in cumbria, the heavy rain closed roads and sent floodwater creeping towards homes. the worst of it was kept out by the fire service. travellers on the west coast mainline faced long delays as the tracks north of preston disappeared under water. passengers were put on buses. north wales was hit, too, with anglesey the worst affected. it is just unbelievable. i have never seen anything like it in my life. and i've been brought up here and it wasjust, well, shocking. back in galgate, the fire brigade were pumping out the cellar of the new inn. i'm totally distraught. i don't think that i can actually continue with this now. with your business? yeah. the landlord believes he has lost his livelihood. the cellar is flooded, the kitchen is gone. all my food stock has gone. all the fridges and freezers are turned upside down. what can i do? what it highlights is there are lots of communities in this part of britain that are vulnerable to flooding when you get those periods of heavy rain in a short space of time. the water has receded, but people will be staring anxiously at the skies for some time yet. danny savage, bbc news, lancashire. the argentine navy now says it detected a sound which it suspects was an explosion around the time contact was lost with a submarine in the south atlantic. the sanjuan, which had a crew of 44 on board, disappeared last wednesday. more than a dozen nations including the united states, britain and russia have been searching for the vessel. one of the killers of the toddler james bulger is back in prison while police investigate the discovery of suspected child abuse images on a computer. jon venables, who was ten he killed the little boy with robert thompson in 1993, was freed on licence in 2001. the jury at the trial of an army sergeant accused of trying to murder his wife by tampering with her parachute has been discharged, afterfailing to reach verdicts. emile cilliers — seen here with his wife victoria — had denied all charges. the court had been sitting for seven weeks. the crown prosecution service says it will seek a retrial. the physical and mental health of around 15,000 former professional footballers is going to be studied by researchers who are trying to determine the long—term impact of heading a football. the fa and the professional footballers‘ association have commissioned the research amid growing concern about the long—term effect that contact sport can have on the brain. our sports editor dan roan reports. heading the ball has been a part of football since the game was invented, but in recent years there's been mounting concern over the danger it could pose to players‘ long—term health, and today the fa announced it'd finally commissioned a landmark study into links between football and dementia. the expert leading the research telling mejust how significant it is. we're going to be as thorough as we can possibly be. we're looking at in excess of 15,000 former footballers an matching them to somewhere around 45,000 population control. so we get a good sense of what their numbers look like against what we would expect from the population. commentator: nodding it on. 15 years ago, a coroner ruled that former england striker, jeff astle, died aged 59 as a result of industrial disease, dementia caused by repeated heading had contributed to the cause of death. one of hundreds of players diagnosed with degenerative brain conditions after retirement, astle's family have been at the heart of the campaign demanding the sports authorities honour their duty of care to former professionals. the fa have a responsibility across the game in its entirety. the pfa are there for player welfare. but, yes, they are doing it, but i still believe they've been cornered into this. they've been cornered into doing the research. it's something that's not going to go away. former england captain alan shearer, still the premier league's leading goal scorer and a player renowned for his heading, highlighted the issue in a recent bbc documentary undergoing a series of medical tests on his own brain. i'm pleased that eventually the authorities have listened and are now going to do the research that should have been done years ago. we can't look back unfortunately, we can only look forward now and support willie and his team and, hopefully, they will be able to start and get some answers now. today, the fa said it felt compelled to conduct what it vowed would be one of the most comprehensive studies ever into this issue. further proof that it must now address one of the greatest challenges facing its future, both in the professional ranks and at the grass—roots. despite the obvious health benefits for children who play sport there are calls for heading to be banned for under 11s until the health risks are better understood. football's not alone. rugby has had to change its rules over the assessment of head injuries. american football's concussion crisis meanwhile has resulted in £1 billion settle m e nt after former players sewed the nfl over brain disease. our top story this evening. a bleak outlook for the economy amid warnings that the uk is facing an unprecedented squeeze on living standards. and still to come... we'll have some good news for coffee lovers. coming up on sportsday on bbc news. england's ashes debuta nts star on day one. we will have all the reaction from brisbane, plus a look ahead to the second day's play. the plight of the rohingya muslims has been called the world's fastest growing humanitarian crisis. since august more than 600,000 rohingyas have fled their homes in myanmar after a military crackdown, crossing the border into neighbouring bangladesh. they've been living in vast makeshift refugee camps. but now thousands may be able to return home after a deal was signed between the two countries. however, aid agencies say their safety must be guaranteed. reeta chakra barti reports from cox's bazaar in bangladesh. a mass of humanity has made its home here, a city made up entirely of people who fled. they arrived with stories of being shot at and raped and their children being killed. would they, could they return to myanmar? translation: we won't go back. we were brutally tortured. young men were put in prison and houses were set on fire. rashida and her husband lost someone they escaped. a son when they escaped. here, at his grave, rashida breaks down. we saw her with her son two months ago. the 15—year—old had trodden on a landmine laid in myanmar at the border where they cross to bangladesh. two days after these pictures were filmed, he died. then, she told us, she could not bear even to say the word myanmar. here, in the cramped shelter she shares with her husband and six other family members, rashida says she will not return. translation: our hearts were broken in myanmar. what does pain mean? i had two sons injured in myanmar. will we get peace there? if everybody goes back, we will. but our hearts don't tell us to go back, they don't, they don't. but according to the agreement between bangladesh and myanmar, some of these people could start to return injust two months‘ time. yet there are no details of how their safety will be guaranteed, nor of any international monitoring, making observers cautious. one thing is for sure, for refugees to be able to exercise their fundamental right to return home, the conditions that made them free in the first place need to be meaningfully addressed. refugees need to be able to decide voluntarily to return in a safe and dignified manner. bangladesh has been under immense strain with this huge influx of refugees, so it is understandably keen to find a dealfor their return. myanmar‘s motives are less clear, but the country will be under the spotlight next week with a visit from the pope. without cast—iron guarantees for the rohingyas safety, many will have serious doubts about today‘s announcement. the former labour minister ivan lewis has been suspended by the party while allegations of inappropriate behaviour are investigated. mr lewis denies any wrongdoing or non—consensual behaviour but says he‘s sorry if he has made women who work with him feel awkward. new rules are being introduced to stop internet providers making misleading claims about their broadband packages. from may, companies will only be allowed to advertise a top speed if at least half of their customers can access it at peak times. there‘s some good news for coffee drinkers. a review published in the british medicaljournal suggest drinking three or four cups a day may lower the risk of liver disease, some cancers and the likelihood of developing heart problems. however, public health experts say there is still uncertainty about the impact of drinking more than that. sima kotecha reports from birmingham. an espresso, a cappuccino or just instant. more than 50 million cups of coffee are drunk every day here in the uk and today there‘s another debate about whether it‘s good or bad for you. it‘s after a review has suggested drinking moderate amounts of coffee is more likely to benefit health than cause it harm. i think i enjoy the smell of it mostly, which makes me sort of feel — especially when you‘re in a country like italy or something, waking up in the morning smelling coffee, itjust makes me, i don‘t know, i really love it. i think it's probably a placebo effect. you feel sort of energised by having drunk it. it gives me a bit of a kick is the main thing and, the different blends, you can slightly taste different things. sometimes they're chocolatey, sometimes they're fruity. the university of southampton went through 200 studies looking at how coffee affects the body, and concluded three or four cups of it a day could lead to a lower risk of developing health problems. however, it also said too much of it while pregnant can be dangerous. in some cases, a small amount of coffee can cause anxiety, and there are studies that suggest children, adolescents and the elderly are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of caffeine. it gives me kind of... it brings my anxiety levels up a bit. my gears are always grinding and i think sometimes i can have a caffeine overload, so i try to stay away from it as much as when i was younger when i worked in construction. i was drinking it, you know, nonstop all the time. critics say the finding of this particular review could be skewed because those evaluated may have been healthy before starting to drink coffee. i tend to ignore this kind of advice because from one day to the next it tends to differ, so i wouldn‘t be surprised if in a week or two we got some other report saying that coffee is bad for you after all. but i guess everything in moderation. researchers are now calling for rigorous clinical trials to explore the drink‘s effects. and a last bit of advice from them — opt for milk with your coffee rather than cream. sima kotecha, bbc news, birmingham. cricket — the 70th ashes test series is under way in australia with england looking to defend the urn they won in 2015. but australia, who beat england 5—0 when they last played down under, are the favourites to win this time. 0ur sports correspondent andy swiss sent this report from brisbane. it is almost a national hobby. beating england is what australia have done so often here and their fans flocked to the stadium with the confidence to match the visitors‘ caution. without ben stokes, england‘s low—key line—up began as the ashes underdogs, and after opting to bat, it didn‘t take long to see why. mitchell starc snaring alastair cook for just two. australia‘s pace man pounding in. the verbal bouncers flying. but instead of a collapse, a comeback. not many expected james vince to be picked for this tour, but he set about showing why. the hosts‘ much hyped attack looking toothless, until this. stoneman emphatically bowled by pat cummins for 53, before a moment of brilliance in the field from nathan lyon. after his pre—ashes fighting talk, some way to back it up. vince ran out for 83 and suddenly the pendulum had veered australia‘s way. joe root surviving an lbw decision, but not for long. the review showed he was out, the skipper gone for 15. before a few morale—boosting blows from moeen ali helped guide england through to the close. for the fans, then, a first day of fluctuating fortunes. england‘s impressive start followed by australia‘s late resurgence. the early signs suggest this could be a competitive series. an absorbing start to the ashes, then, but england know the hard work has only just begun. andy swiss, bbc news, brisbane. time for a look at the weather. here is tomasz schafernaker and the cold weather coming back again? it certainly is and it‘s going to stay cold until the end of the month so stay cold until the end of the month so chilly for all of us, right down towards the south coast. it‘s already been turning colder through the day and the temperatures were dropping through the day such is the extent of the chilly weather coming in. a dip in thejet stream here and this is what it will look like for the next few days, in this cold than” of ”fijiti in the last had some weather front in the last 24 hours, dreadful weather across the north of the uk with heavy rain across lancashire and cumbria but the worst of that has cleared away. there is some rain across the south—west tonight, clipping the south—west tonight, clipping the south coast but it will be just through the night so by the time we get to around six in the morning, that rain should be clearing away. many waking up to dry weather in the morning, and a lot of clear whether around with crisp sunshine on the way. in the far north of the country, western scotland and maybe northern ireland too, there will be showers coming in. for many of us it will be a bright if not sunny crisp sort of day, and these temperatures 7-9d sort of day, and these temperatures 7—9d only briefly in the afternoon, colder than that for the most of the day. on saturday these north—westerly winds will bring showers to scotland and parts of north—west england and ireland. again, a frosty start, crisp sunshine, beautiful saturday on the way and the same goes for sunday with fewer showers and temperatures struggling as well. when the sun is out and if you are out of the wind, it will be a beautiful late autumn day on sunday. that chilly weather is set to continue into next week. that‘s all from the bbc news at six. so it‘s goodbye from me. 0n bbc one we nowjoin the bbc‘s news teams where you are. the headlines in bbc news this evening. the prime minister says the budget puts britain on the right path despite a leading parcel c group saying the country‘s it out prospects made for grim reading stability looks like we have at least another five years to go before we get anywhere near to having earnings back to where they we re having earnings back to where they were in 2008. wholly unprecedented and certain in the worst since the mid—19th century. and certain in the worst since the mid-19th century. more than 70 people have been rescued after rain caused flooding in parts of north—west england and north wales. an army sergeant is to face a retrial on charges of to murder his wife by tampering with a parachute after the jury failed to reach verdicts. an underwater explosion is detected near the area where an argentine submarine disappeared in the south atlantic with 44 crew on board. ina in a moment it‘s time for sports day. first a look at what‘s coming this evening bbc news. a blow

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