stoneman made half centuries and so england can go happy into the second day —— alastair cook went. thanks. tomasz has all the weather. some cold weather around, some frost, but also sunshine. thanks, thomasz. also coming up — talking her way to the top. we'll meet the teenage girl who's become the first state school pupil to win a top eton debating prize. hello everyone — this is afternoon live. let's prove you wrong — that's the chancellor philip hammonds message to the economists whose bleak forecasts cast something of a shadow over his budget yesterday. the chancellor said clarity around brexit would increase consumer confidence and lead to higher growth in the economy — but labour accuses mr hammond of being "cut—off from the real lives of people". our political correspondent eleanor garnier reports. the government's own fortunes might not have been completely rebuilt but the chancellor's difficult day passed off better than many had hoped, and at a building college in leeds both he and the prime minister spelt out their plans for the future. the chancellor did a very good job yesterday. he was setting out how we will ensure we have an economy fit for the future, but both the chancellor and i agree that what the budget was about was aboutjobs for people up and down the country, about ensuring people are in work with that income for theirfamily. it's about building the homes that they need. he might have safeguarded his own job but the downgrade in economic growth is the big problem on the chancellor's hands. that's why we are investing in infrastructure, in skills, and why we have taken big steps to encourage high—growth businesses like the tech sector, which tend to be higher productivity and help lift the performance of the economy overall. inside the chancellor's red budget box, help for first time buyers, plus more money for the nhs and cash to address concern over universal credit. and he appeased some of his harshest critics, conservative brexiteers, with £3 billion to prepare for leaving the eu. but labour said ordinary people had been let down and accused the chancellor of failing to sort out the country's finances. if you don't invest in this economy, and in the infrastructure, if you don't invest in schools, you will have problems with productivity. all the chickens have now come home to roost. seven years of this government failing to invest in our infrastructure and properly in our skills, and we now have a productivity crisis. and now a research group that aims to tackle inequality says the gloomy economic news on top of the government's own policies will end up punishing poorer communities. this grim economic picture is affecting all families and is leading to lower incomes and lower earnings growth right across the income spectrum. but it is the tax and benefit policies of the government that are disproportionately taking away from poorerfamilies. he had very little room for manoeuvre, both politically and financially, too, yet the chancellor seemed to carefully pick off the pressure points the government had been facing. but there's no getting around the huge difficulties the uk economy could be storing up for the future. the budget wasn't the radical reboot many tories had been hoping for, but equally it wasn't the disaster many had feared. for now, the chancellor has silenced his critics, but the future certainly remains challenging. eleanor garner, bbc news, westminster. well, think tank the institute for fiscal studies — has been crunching the numbers after the budget and has calculated that in four years' time — growth in average earnings will be £1400 lower than was predicted last year. our economics correspondent andy verity is outside the ifs in central london. the story yesterday was about the predictions the chancellor gave, really. yes, the acceptance by the office for budget responsibility that we are not getting the growth in productivity that we used to, productivity being the amount we each produce each hour, used to grow 296 each produce each hour, used to grow 2% each year, but in the last ten yea rs 2% each year, but in the last ten years that has not been happening and the visual prediction has been it would recover to where it used to grow but now there has been an a cce pta nce grow but now there has been an acceptance that it won't —— and the official prediction. employees cannot be paid a pay rise above inflation each year and that means a long squeeze on living standards, longer we have seen. as pauljohnson from the ifs told me. the squeeze on living standards over the decade so far is historically unprecedented. what's remarkable is it looks like we have got at least another five years to go before we get anywhere near to having earnings back where they were in 2008. that is wholly unprecedented, certainly the worst since the mid—19th century and possibly worse since even before then. if you are trying to stay cheerful, i got more bad news, even that gloomy prediction depends on a relatively optimistic assumption about what is going to happen with productivity and it doesn't issue it will be like it has been for the last ten years, it assumes it will pick up again to improved by about 196 pick up again to improved by about 1% each year. that also has implications even if that view prevails, for debt, each year we are spending more than our income as the government, and that adds up each year and that is the debt. when will the debt be falling back to precrisis levels? if you are over 50, forget about it happening in your lifetime, and the ifs predicts that national debt won't get back to precrisis levels until the 2060s when i think i will be in my 90s, thatis when i think i will be in my 90s, that is a very long time away. that depends on this relatively optimistic assumption for how we are going to grow. next time i'm going to go across to you on going to put a warning before, saying what you are about to hear is rather miserable. laughter don't forget, you can get in contact with us. this the uk has this been told none of its cities can now take part in the competition to become european capital of culture in 2023. dundee, nottingham, leeds, milton keynes, belfast and londonderry had all submitted bids — but the european commission said the decision was one of the many concrete consequences of brexit. the government says it's deeply disappointed. the former labour minister ivan lewis has been suspended by the labour party while allegations of inappropriate behaviour are investigated. a complaint against mr lewis was made to the labour whips office earlier this month. mr lewis denies wrongdoing or non—consensual bahviour — but says he's sorry if he has made women who work with him feel "awkward". the labour party says it takes all allegations of sexual harassment extremely seriously. dozens of people had to be rescued from their homes in parts of cumbria and lancashire last night after heavy rainfall caused flooding. more than 70 people were helped to safety after the emergency services received hundreds of calls. a number of flood warnings are still in place. let's get the latest from our correspondent becky barr who's live in galgate in lancashire. yes, i'm just the south of lancaster where the clean—up operation is well underway. we had a huge amount of rain all day yesterday and well into the night. the floodwaters came up very quickly, and where we are in this village, there is a river that i’u ns this village, there is a river that runs through the centre of the village and at ten o'clock last night the river finally burst its banks. many businesses and homes we re banks. many businesses and homes were flooded, people i've spoken to said they were shocked by how quickly the water rose. from ten o'clock people reported water lapping at their door and some people said by midnight it was at waist height in their homes. as you can see, lancashire fire and rescue services are working very hard now the water has receded to pump out basements and in this village. they are expected to be here for some time doing just that, there is a huge amount of damage, and also disruption. even the people who weren't flooded. roads have been closed, the m6, several lanes were closed, the m6, several lanes were closed for much of the day, railways affected, the local school in this village is so close, so there is a great knock on effect. —— is also closed. it is only november and there are more flood warnings in place, so people are really worried that this could be a long hard winter of disruption. i should point out, to put this into long—term context, two years ago we had massive floods after storm desmond in this part of the country, in lancaster and the surrounding areas, the electricity was out for about a week on and off and people are concerned we might see that kind of disruption occurring once again. questions have been asked about who should take responsibility for the factors that make these floods worse and that is an argument which will develop over the coming weeks and months, as questions are asked of the local council as to how they are managing these factors. lancashire cou nty managing these factors. lancashire county council say they are working aside as they can to improve the situation for people here in north lancashire and of course those people in south cumbria, as well. thanks forjoining us. it's been confirmed that jon venables, one of the killers of the toddlerjames bulger, was recalled to prison last week. police are investigating allegations that illegal images of child abuse were found on a computer linked to him, although no charges have been brought. the 35—year—old served seven years injailforjames' killing, and was released on licence in 2001, under a new identity. our correspondent daniel sandford is here and can tell us more. shock from james's family, of course. his mother denise fergus has put out a statement and she has made it quite clear how disappointed she is that this has been allowed to happen and how the for it. —— have the authorities have responded to she has said she could it did ve na bles she has said she could it did venables would reoffend and she prays that someone from the uk government will listen to her, but she also complains about the way that the probation service tried to cover this up, in her words. that the probation service tried to coverthis up, in herwords. he that the probation service tried to cover this up, in her words. he was taken into cover this up, in her words. he was ta ken into custody cover this up, in her words. he was taken into custody a week ago in she was only informed a few hours before this hit the press. —— and she was. she clearly feels this wasn't going to be made public and she wasn't going to be told about it until a newspaper found out about it last night. it was all was going to be a big issue, as to how these two boys we re big issue, as to how these two boys were going to be dealt with. the debate happened almost as soon as the murder was committed, there was an argument about the trial and then there was a long discussion about them having been given life sentences and how early they could be released and in the end they were released less than eight years after the murder of james bulger, released less than eight years after the murder ofjames bulger, after a long argument that had gone all the way to europe. in the case of robert thompson, the rehab process might have worked and he has not made it back into the news since the day he was released in 2001, but in the case ofjon was released in 2001, but in the case of jon venables was released in 2001, but in the case ofjon venables we have this incident in 2010 when he admits he had child abuse images on his computer and he was sent to prison again but then the decision was made to give him another chance and he was released in 2013, and now it seems, as if more child abuse images have been found on a computer link to him. he is back in prison and it will now be a big decision from the pa role will now be a big decision from the parole board as to when he should be released in the short to medium—term future let the long—term future. thanks forjoining us. a toddler has died in hospital after being discovered seriously hurt at a house in birmingham. police say the 21—month—old girl was found at a house in the northfield area of birmingham on sunday, and died at the city's children's hospital yesterday evening. a 30—year—old woman and a 28—year—old man have been arrested on suspicion of causing or allowing serious injury to a child. you're watching afternoon live, these are our headlines. theresa may says she wants to "to re—ignite the dream of home ownership." the prime minister says measures in the budget are about helping people get their foot on the housing ladder. counting the cost of the flooding — the clear up begins in areas of the north—west of england hit by last night's floods. jon venables, one of the killers of toddlerjames bulger, is back in prison after allegations that images of child abuse were found on his computer. and in sport the ashes is finally under way with england ending the opening day on ‘196 for 4‘ in brisbane. having chosen to bat, england lost alastair cook for just two but a composed 83 from james vince made 83 helped england made a steady start to the ashes at the gabba. former england rugby league international rangi chase has been banned from all sport for two years. the widnes half—back was suspended by the club after testing positive for cocaine injuly. england rugby union captain dylan hartley will not start a match for the first time under head coach eddiejones this weekend. he's on the bench for the meeting with samoa as one of nine changes to the starting 15. i will be back with more of those stories in 15 minutes. the fa and the professional footballers‘ association have commissioned new research into whether former players develop conditions such as dementia because of repeatedly heading a football. there's been growing concern about the long—term impact that contact sports can have on the brain. let's get more from our sports correspondentjoe wilson who's here now. we have heard this before, so what are the fa now doing about this?m you go back to 2002, jeff astral died, he scored the winning goal in the 1968 fa cup final and paid for england —— jeff astle. finally we have this report being commissioned. one of the issues is the lack of data, and what this report sets out to do is create loads of data, 15,000 former professional footballers will be assessed and compared to normal people who haven't spent their life heading footballs repeatedly, and they hope to get concrete links, but maybe not. it is 2—3 years and this is being run by doctor william stuart who has led much of this research. he says he hopes to get some understanding of the long—term impact. alan shearer has done a documentary recently, one of the really worrying aspects is the effect on younger players and that is something they want to look at. definitely. there are several elements, the potential physical risk and if you look at the united states, if you are under 11 and playing soccer, as they would call it, and it is a big participation sport in the united states, you are not allowed to head it. at the weekend i had run a localfootball tea m weekend i had run a localfootball team and under rob evans i coach —— and under 11 is art who i'm coaching, and sometimes they will head it. do i say congratulations or doi head it. do i say congratulations or do i tell them off the doing it, and many parents would like some clarity about this. we all want clarity. absolutely. this time next week i could be talking about childhood obesity, so in activity is a danger in itself, so there is always the balance between wanting kids to get involved in sport and wondering where the parameters lie. the issue of common sense, if you repeatedly bang your head while your brain is developing, there might be problems. absolutely. what alan shearer was talking about, not maybe the 20 times he might have the ball in the match, but the way that would be repeated in training sessions over and over again. repeated in training sessions over and overagain. in repeated in training sessions over and over again. in kids football you don't have that repetition, so common sense has got to come into it, but you will be aware of what has happened in the nfl in america, there is a $1 billion pot of money which is going towards compensation and education for the thousands of former american football players who are now bringing cases against the nfl, and the level of contact in the nfl, and the level of contact in the nfl is completely different but that is some sort of precedent in a way. thanks forjoining us. there's some good news for coffee drinkers. research published in the british medicaljournal suggests that drinking three to four mugs of coffee a day — compared to drinking none — is "more likely to benefit your health than cause harm". researchers say it's linked to a lower likelihood of developing heart problems. helen briggs reports. a daily caffeine fix. for many of us it's an essential part of the day but it has long been debated whether that cup of coffee is good or bad for you. i think any more than two cups of coffee kind of accelerates the stress a bit more so i draw the line at two. i feel like most things are good in moderation and if you drink good coffee, then it should be good for your health. i can sometimes drink about six cups and then i can't sleep at night. so it's learning what that balance is. to try to find the answer, doctors at the university of southampton sifted through 200 studies, looking at how coffee affects the body. they say the benefits of drinking 3—4 cups a day outweigh the risks for most people. pregnant women are still advised to limit consumption. coffee drinking was linked to a lower evidence of heart disease and some cancers but the researchers could not prove coffee was the cause. the doctor who carried out the research says on balance coffee in moderation is likely to be beneficial. most of the studies have been an caffeinated coffee but there is less evidence on decaffeinated but where we have looked at those, they seem to find some of the benefits that are there with caffeinated studies, suggesting it is more than just caffeine and that coffee has a lot of active substances that might be good for our long—term health. and experts say further studies are needed before drinking coffee to prevent disease could be recommended, not least because it's often accompanied by cream, sugary syrup or cake. helen briggs, bbc news. and now we have the latest on the goings—on in argentina. for a seventh day in mar del plata, argentina, people gather at the naval base to pray for 44 sailors lost at sea on a missing submarine. the argentine navy says the mission to find the sanjuan has reached a critical phase. the crew on board could be using up the last of the seven—day oxygen supply. more than a dozen countries are looking for it now, including brazil. commander leonardo brega martins says they cannot know for certain what conditions are like on the submarine. translation: we can also think that in order to preserve oxygen they have reduced the crew's work rhythm, which could increase autonomy up to two weeks. it's not possible right now to confirm that the submarine's oxygen has run out. he says the focus now is still on trying to re—establish communication, something an international fleet has been trying to do for a week. if support vessels do locate the sub, getting the crew to safety will be a delicate operation. the search boat will send an underwater robot to search for the submarine. the robots use sonar to create images of the sea floor. then once the sub is found, a submarine rescue chamber will be deployed from the search vessel. the rescue chamber will attach to the top of the sub, which will allow crew members to evacuate to safety. that's the best case scenario. rescuers are also preparing for the possibility that the missing sailors may have to leave the submarine in specialised suits like this. translation: it is a resource that will only be used if the submarine's commander decides conditions have worsened to the point the crew cannot stay inside and there is no hope the crew members can be rescued in time by other means, for example, in a mini submarine or rescue tube. an argentine navy spokesperson also says they are investigating reports of a loud sound heard before losing contact with submarine but he wouldn't say if that sound was an explosion. now we have a good news story for you. i'm joined by now we have a good news story for you. i'mjoined by guest now we have a good news story for you. i'm joined by guest selina begum who has taken on eating colleges top debaters and as won! —— eton colleges. 16—year—old selina begum has become the first state school pupil ever to win the prestigious eton debating prize. she is a student at newham collegiate sixth form in london, which is an area steeped in poverty. joining me now is the winner of the prestigious prize, selina begum, and her teacher jerome singh, who helped her prepare for the debate. so what happened ? so what happened? my speech was about abolishing the death penalty in the united states, you're 50 minutes to prepare, —— you're giving 50 minutes to prepare. —— 15 minutes. we had a final summary of the best speakers and i was in the top six and then i managed to win. what were the others like? very intimidating, but everyone was intimidated by each other because eve ryo ne intimidated by each other because everyone in the room was a strong speaker. it was amazing. is this something you always thought, i'm quite good at this, i'm a good talker? i would like to think i'm a good speaker, but when you are with people that are just as good it is intimidating but there is nothing to say they were better than me and vice versa. well, there is, because you won and many congratulations. what is it about her that impressed everyone? i run the debating society andl everyone? i run the debating society and i also teach history, and i can doubt that she is a very good speaker. she really challenges herself and pushes herself —— and i have no doubt that she is a very good speaker. we like them to raise the barand thenjump good speaker. we like them to raise the bar and thenjump over it. good speaker. we like them to raise the bar and then jump over it. the many people who will hear about your background, your mother is a full—time carer of your father. you don't have an easy time at home, get you have done this. how have you done this? my parents have always been supporting me from the first day, because they were privileged to go to college and have an education and work for themselves, so they have instilled the educational drive in their children. that is something which has been present within my family and that is in me and my younger brother, my parents have been a huge push for me. what was it like, for the school to know? they we re very like, for the school to know? they were very encouraging, this is a learning curve, not just were very encouraging, this is a learning curve, notjust to make it also gives encouragement to others. it must create a huge atmosphere at the school? yes, very rewarding, she walked into the history class the next day and she got a huge round of applause, and the confidence then spirals throughout the school, and all of the students start to believe they can do it as well. notjust about preparation, she was told they wa nt about preparation, she was told they want her to do this commuter got to be rather quick—witted. —— want her to do this, you have got to be rather quick—witted. to do this, you have got to be rather quick-witted. absolutely. it is not about pedantic arguing. it is something she has developed very well. what was the reaction amongst other teachers? i was fairly concentrated on her, to be fair, but i was very pleased. i was sitting in the group behind when it was announced that she did seem rather shocked. it was a great experience. so what now, would you like to do?” wa nt to so what now, would you like to do?” want to study history at oxford, if i get the grades, and then i'm looking at korea's indoor and finance, but i haven't limited myself —— then i'm looking at careers in law and finance. from the background you have had, to go to eton college, to see that privilege, what was going through your mind? the kind of institution i've been, we we re the kind of institution i've been, we were never taught there was any limits, it is more about the opportunities available, nothing to do about where you are from and your background, but rather your ability, and then to be able to nurture that and then to be able to nurture that and go to a school where they encourage you, and ifind that and go to a school where they encourage you, and i find that at the college where i attend right now for the. what about your parents question up they were so happy, i'd never seen the light that, it was amazing. anyone can do anything? yes, this is the start of a great journey, better things ahead, hopefully. great news. thanks for joining us. now we can have a look at the weather. the weather has been appalling in some parts of the country in the last 2a hours. the trend for the next few days will be for things to get quite a bit colder right across the uk and this is a big view, you can see the polar regions here, and as a dip in the cold air, driven by the jet stream. another cold snap there. that is what cold snaps are, dips in the cold air coming in from the northern climes. you can see where the air is originating from, arctic regions, across iceland and ending up across the uk. colder airfrom the north feeding in, as i speak. there is a little bit of rain on the way for southern areas of the uk towards the evening and night. we'll have a look at the ring in the south. the good news is we're not anticipating any heavy rain in cumbria lancashire where we had so much rainfall in the last 2a hours or so. this is what it looks like around the rush hour, a lot of clear weather out there. still a bit of a breeze out there, the temperatures falling away quite rapidly, it will feel chilly. a nip in the air. then for a time tonight, this evening and tonight, a little weather front, that is across the south coast of england so wet weather anywhere from plymouth to portsmouth, possibly into london at all. by the time we get to five o'clock in the morning, it is just exiting the south—east and the colder air starts pouring in reaching southern areas. i do not think it will be frosty in the south. but certainly no other areas will be waking up friday morning to a smothering of frost. here is friday afternoon itself. it will feel cold. look at the temperatures, three, five celsius. single figures down to the south coast as well. frosty nights on the way through the course of the weekend, a chilly wind out of the north—west, a mixture of sunshine and showers. some sunshine around the shore on saturday across northern and north—western areas, the best of the sunshine will be across the east of the country, southern and central areas as well. look at the temperatures, only around seven celsius. i think more sunshine on the way on sunday. less of a chance of catching a shower. this is bbc news — our latest headlines. theresa may has praised philip hammond's new budget, saying he'd done a good job. the prime minister said the budget would secure employment for people across the country. both the chancellor and i agree that what the budget was about was aboutjobs for people up and down the country. it's about ensuring that people are in work. firefighters have rescued more than 70 people and 20 horses as torrential rain causes severe flooding across parts of north—west england. the met office said almost two inches of water fell in 2a hours, described the flooding as "unprecedented". jon venables — one of the killers of two—year—old james bulger — has been recalled to prison suspected of having child abuse images on his computer. the light at night. the earth at night is getting brighter — but at what cost to our wellbeing? pictures of earth have shown how artificial light is growing brighter and more extensive every year. sport now on afternoon live with hugh woozencroft. not a bad start in the ashes? not a bad start for england, england will be content, not many wickets for australia, not anyone strings and beat we know how difficult it can be to win in brisbane, at the gabba, ruthless work from australia, neither side will be overjoyed, the happiest men are james vince, mark stoneman, they both made half centuries. sorry to break game, breaking news from winchester crown court, the trial of an army sergeant accused of trying to murder his wife by tampering with her parachute. helena? we can't tell you in the last few seconds from inside court at winchester crown court that the jury at winchester crown court that the jury in this seven—week trial has been discharged, the trial of an army sergeant who was accused of trying to kill his wife, victoria, twice within six days. we are hearing from inside that courtroom, thejudge in the hearing from inside that courtroom, the judge in the last few moments has addressed the jury, the ten members, seven women and three men, he told the jury that they say there is no realistic prospect of them reaching a unanimous or majority verdict on any account, those are three charges that he was facing. the foreman confirmed to the court that they had not been able to reach a unanimous or majority verdict. the judge, mrjustice sweeney, directed thejury judge, mrjustice sweeney, directed the jury yesterday in terms of giving a majority verdict of nine — one. thejudge has discharged the jury one. thejudge has discharged the jury from the case, he says he is making arrangements with the consul, the prosecution and defence teams in this trial, but he says that is not concern the jury members who sat through this seven—week trial and he thanked the jury members and noted that they have left the courtroom. we understand from the prosecution in this case, michael bowes, he has stood up in court and confirmed that the prosecution, as is suspected in these types of case, the prosecution will seek a retrial in terms of those three charges that the army sergeant was facing. the crown prosecution will seek a retrial, the judge has said it is not a question that he can answer immediately but thejudge said that that he can answer immediately but the judge said that any retrial that is going to take place should take place sooner rather than later. given the events that took place in 2015. the suggestion is that the judge in this case sits on that retrial but he has told the court that this is a decision that is not up that this is a decision that is not up to him. from winchester crown court, after this seven—week trial, the tenjury court, after this seven—week trial, the ten jury members, seven women and three men, have told the court they have been unable to reach both unanimous and also majority verdicts on all of those three counts. in relation to emile sillier is, he was accused of two attempts on his wife's life in 2015, the jury has been discharged. thank you. breaking news from winchester crown court. we will return there later. back to the sport. i interrupted you, but that was a big story. we were talking about the ashes and whilst it is broadly good news, for alastair cook it is not? i was mentioning james vince and mark stoneman, both making half centuries but the vastly experienced former captain alastair cook has failed to reach 25 for five straight test innings and he made just two, joe root made 15 and those players, if england are going to win, will have to produce more. you would have to say england made a solid start, ending the first day on 196-4 solid start, ending the first day on 196—4 as they began their defence of the urn, andy swiss was watching in brisbane. what an intriguing first day at the gabba, it has ended with honours, relatively even, england 196 for four, winning the toss, they chose to bat and had a terrible start, alastair cook out forjust two, caught at slip off mitchell sta rc two, caught at slip off mitchell starc and we wondered if it would be one of those old—fashioned collapses but they rebuilt thanks to a century partnership between james vince and mark stoneman, james vince was a surprising selection but he justified the faith of the selectors, stoneman went for 53 and vince went for 83, brilliantly run out by nathan o'brien, a superb piece of fielding, backing up his trash talk earlier in the week with a piece of individual brilliance and england lost their fourth wicket before the close, the captain, joe root come out, lbw to pat cummins, initially given not out but that was overturned on review. england are four down at the close, fluctuating fortunes but no doubting their star of the day, james vince. nice to get early runs, the conditions were different to what we expected, there was a huge amount of pace at the start of the day and we came onto the bat better today as it went on and we bowled pretty well, they did not give us a huge amount, i think the morning is crucial, if we get through the first hour and edged towards a big score. it was a good pick up and throw, you bowled pretty well and deserved something from the day. disappointing, obviously, no matter what score of the batter gets, they always want more. it would have been nice to be there at the end of the day but yes, that happens in cricket. the former england rugby league international rangi chase has been banned from all sports for two years after testing positive for cocaine. the 31—year—old were suspended by his club, widnes vikings, in august after failing club, widnes vikings, in august afterfailing a drug club, widnes vikings, in august after failing a drug test following defeat by wakefield. the 2011 super league man of steel will not return untiljuly 2019. stories around dyla n untiljuly 2019. stories around dylan hartley has been left out of the starting 15 per the first time under eddie jones. that the starting 15 per the first time under eddiejones. that is for the match against samoa at twickenham. he dropped to the bench as jamie george gets his first start while chris robshaw and george ford are named co—captains, the exeter number eight sam simmonds will make a starting deadly. wales have made three changes from the team beaten by australia for saturday's test against new zealand in cardiff. amos comes in for the injured liam williams with scott williams at outside centre in the place of the injured jonathan davies. jamie roberts has been named on the bench. that is on the sport. i will be back with more. thank you. satellite images of the earth at night have revealed that artificial light is getting brighter and brighter every year. light pollution is expanding across the planet by more than 2% a year thanks to more and more lights going on in south america, africa and asia. scientists say the increase in light pollution will have negative consequences for human health and the environment — as our science reporter, victoria gill, explains. as the sun goes down on towns and cities, the lights go on. and those lights are getting brighter all the time. these images, gathered by a sensor on a nasa satellite, show that more and more of our planet is now artificially lit. i can remember back to the time when i was a grad student and first saw the pictures of earth at night. i was really astounded by how beautiful they were. but, of course, you have to think that this is a very dramatic physical change to the biosphere and it actually costs a massive amount of money, so it's really kind of a problem. in developing nations, including india, the increase was dramatic, from this in 2012... to this in 2016. the researchers expected that most developed nations would actually darken as they changed the type of street lighting they used, from older orange glaring lamps to more efficient led bulbs. but that hasn't happened. urban bright spots in the uk and other nations in europe continue to glow even more intensely intensely, as towns and cities increased their outdoor lighting. that orangey glow in the sky above the city, it's all too familiar to so many of us. it stops most of us from seeing a natural night sky but it also has an impact on our health. night—time lighting, especially the blue light from leds, can reset our internal body clocks, depriving us of valuable sleep. and in the environment, it can disrupt cues that nocturnal animals like bats rely on. it has even been found to shift some fundamental seasonal clockwork, influencing the timing of plant flowering and bird migration. scientists say that images like these are evidence that we're losing our natural night—time. victoria gill, bbc news. joining me now is dr anna weighall from the university of leeds, who is a lecturer in psychology, specialising in sleep and human health. just looking at these images, it has to be one of the most visible exa m ples of to be one of the most visible examples of how we're changing the planet? yes, that is certainly the case and i think one of the problems is that in developed countries, we are trying to move towards more environmentally friendly lighting such as led lighting and that is cheaper and better for the environment in terms of energy costs but because that led lighting actually emits blue light waves, that can have negative effects in terms of human health. when we go out and see new streetlights that are led, we perhaps feel less relaxed than we would otherwise?” think that the measurable effects on most of us as individuals of this increase in led lighting is probably minimal. but the american medical association is concerned about the way these lights have been used because led lights have a lot of potential to be designed in a way that would affect our sleep and environment less. but one of the things i am concerned about as a psychology but a psychologist is led lights that we have control over ourselves so our biggest exposure to blue light and led light comes from the screens that we bring into homes and bedrooms. and that is much more likely to have a big impact on our sleep than streetlights. it is not just the act of being awake to read these things, it is the light itself? that does something to your body clock? yes, our body clocks are driven by the light around us and all artificial lighting has an effect on our body clock and in many ways that is positive, if you think about dark evenings, it is good to have artificial light that enables us have artificial light that enables us to remain awake and active and productive in the evening. but if we have too much exposure to artificial light and especially blue light close to bedtime, that can effect while it gets us to sleep and it decreases the release of melatonin which indicates to the body that it should sleep and that could cause us to get less sleep than we actually need. if you live in a city or even not a very big city in this country, the chance of you being able to sit com pletely the chance of you being able to sit completely dark knight are pretty minimal. should be both are thinking about having blackout curtains and things like that so they know what being in the dark is? should people. having a very dark sleeping environment is beneficial for many people if they struggle with it. i don't think the increase were talking about on a global scale is affecting individual people right now. but i thinkjust in general it is good practice to make sure that the bedroom is dark and comfortable. blackout curtains can be very useful for that if you have a lot of street lighting where you live. really good to talk to you. thank you for your time. some news on the continuing search for that missing submarine off the coast of argentina, we're hearing they have been holding a news conference, the argentine navy, and they say an unusual noise heard in the ocean near the last known position of the sanjuan submarine was consistent with an explosion. an anomalous non—nuclear event consistent with an explosion is how they describe this. it occurred shortly after the last communication of the san juan shortly after the last communication of the sanjuan and its a0 four crew. pretty devastating news from that press conference for the families of those who had been held we re families of those who had been held were still in that submarine but it is an oxygen be running out. they have been underwater a week. news coming through suggesting there was also an explosion and they had complained of an electrical fault in their last communication with their main station. boron that from buenos aires as we get it. —— more on that. zimbabwe is getting ready for the presidential inauguration tomorrow of emmerson mnangagwa — the former vice president whose sacking a fortnight ago led to the sudden demise of robert mugabe. mr mnangagwa will be only the second leader zimbabwe has had in 37 years. our correspondent, ben brown, is in the capital, harare, where more celebrations are expected tomorrow. the new president will be sworn in tomorrow, he is already promising a new democracy here and jobs. meanwhile, there was an unconfirmed report today that robert mugabe has been granted immunity from prosecution and he said he was to stay in zimbabwe and die in zimbabwe and not go into exile. we have been asking people on the streets what they think he and his wife should be prosecuted... as for mugabe, he can be left alone. after all, it's his wealth that he has acquired so far, and he can have it all. the deed has been done. the thing that people have been wanting all this time, for 37 years, it's ok, it has been done, we are happy so far. but his wife, well, i bet my bottom dollar she should be prosecuted. we're happy with what they have done, removing him, and it is what we have been hoping for. so you think he should be prosecuted? yes, he had to be prosecuted for the things he did, but there's nothing we could do about it, but we're hoping he will be prosecuted. and what about grace, his wife? we would want her to be prosecuted, definitely. i think he should be prosecuted because he did a lot of scandals during his era, so i think that decision. you think he should be put on trial? yeah, he must be put on trial. iamjoined by i am joined by an opposition member of parliament, james, do you think mr mugabe should be prosecuted?m terms of the constitution, yes, he isa terms of the constitution, yes, he is a citizen like all of us and he should be made to answer for his time in office. you think he committed crimes? most definitely and one of the reasons i impeached him is because he committed crimes against humanity. 20,000 people died under his rule between 1982 and 19 87 and those things cannot be swept under the carpet. and the new president promises a new democracy, do you believe him? the taste of the pudding is in the eating and until he has been put in place, things that show there is real democracy, i do not want to judge, let that show there is real democracy, i do not want tojudge, let him get into office and his first 100 days will determine whether or not he is a president. thank you. the opposition mp. certainly all zimbabweans are keeping a very wary eye on the new president. ben brown in harare. the headlines... as a long squeeze on living standards is predicted the prime minister says the budget will be good for the country. counting the cost of the flooding — the clear up begins in areas of the north—west of england hit by last night's floods. jon venables, one of the killers of toddlerjames bulger, is back in prison after allegations that images of child abuse were found on his computer. here's your business headlines on afternoon live. the economy is then up to zero. a% in the second quarter but the budget yesterday did paint a pretty gloomy picture of growth in the next five yea rs, picture of growth in the next five years, an annual rate of less than 296. years, an annual rate of less than 2%. shares in centrica are down 1a%. it is said that more than 800,000 customers have moved their account and it is making less profit because of the weather. it is a lot warmer. and a numbers have fallen by 59% since the introduction of the petition levy earlier this year. this levy charged in companies with more than 50 employees were supposed to increase the numbers of people training at work. people talking about stamp duty? i was in the business unit and as the announcement came there was a big sigh around the room, he has done that. the big one. taking away stamp duty for everybody, first—time buyers, up to 300,000 and if you're buying a house for 500,000, that first 300,000 is about stamp duty. but there is a little bit of stamp duty to pay on the 200. if you get my meaning. only the first time... i think i did! i am trying to keep up! only for first—time buyers, think i did! i am trying to keep up! only forfirst—time buyers, if think i did! i am trying to keep up! only for first—time buyers, if you are married and one of you is not a first—time buyer and the other is, if you buy the house together you will not be eligible. it was started... if you completed yesterday, at any point, you get the stamp duty knocked off and you can agree claimant or go back and say i completed last week. too late. people say this means prices will go up. we will look at that. that is interesting. there wasn't other stuff. building new houses? the government doesn't have a good record, they have been talking about this, they put an extra 15 billion aside for this, for loan guarantees, up aside for this, for loan guarantees, up to £aa billion. over five years. a lot of money and they want to hit the target in five years of 300,000 homes being built. a lot of people say this is not the crocs, there are more things going on like the planning system and they will be looking into that, how the planning is done and there will look into whether developers are sitting on land banks and for speculative purposes and that could be another problem. the assumption is they most certainly are. the plan is this will get people on the housing ladder? that is the idea but there is another thought that might —— but it might raise prices. let's talk to susan emmett, head of housing at the policy exchange. the obr said it was going to lead to a rise in house prices? this abolition of stamp duty? the worst ke pt abolition of stamp duty? the worst kept secret in the budget is out, it has been announced and it has grabbed all the headlines, as we expected. i think the obr has made a very fair point. if you are expecting to see a marginal increase in house prices as a result of this, it will be gradual and not enormous and all at once because if you look at the actual tax break, it amounts to an average of £1600 across the country and a maximum of £5,000 for those buying in london. it is not huge. it might be important to many first—time buyers who are on the cusp but it is not a transformational thing and will not solve the housing crisis. thinking for myself, if i have a house for about £300,000 and was trying to sell it, i might but the price up by £1600? that is the danger. we will see that and it will happen incrementally and in fact, that benefit will be lost. whilst it might help some millennials, i doubt it will help my children further down the line. having said that, as you mentioned, there are lots of other measures in the budget, far more exciting and significant in the long run. this is a short—term headline grabber but the changes to planning and the changes to help house particularly smaller house—builders, help to boost off—site manufacturing, there is a raft of measures that are far more significant in the long—term than the stamp duty. very interesting. i go. -- thank you. you would put the price up by! let's look at the markets. centrica is the big mover, putting out the profit warning, it is not on the board but it was down by around 20% but it has recovered, it is down about 1a%. the pound against the euro, a little bit weaker. not significant but by half a cent. thank you. see you later. some cheerful pictures in new york, the macy's thanksgiving day parade. the biggest parade in the world. presented by the department store. this tradition goes back to 192a. and itjust this tradition goes back to 192a. and it just means this tradition goes back to 192a. and itjust means that all those children queueing up have an idea of what they want for christmas! this is the scene in new york, it looks chilly, but a warm reception for the parade. let's find out what is happening closer to home with the weather forecast... the weather has been appalling in some parts of the country in the last 2a hours and the trend for the next few days will be for things to turn quite a bit colder right across the uk. this is the bigger view, you can see the polar regions, greenland and iceland, this dip in the cold air driven by the jet stream and another cold snap, cold snaps are dips in the cold air coming in from the northern climes and you can see the originating from the arctic region, across iceland and ending up across the uk so cold airfrom across iceland and ending up across the uk so cold air from the north feeding in as i speak but there is a little rain on the way for southern areas towards the evening and we will look at that. we're not anticipating any more heavy rain in cumbria and lancashire, where we had so much rainfall in the last 2a hours. this is what it looks like ground rush hour, lots of clear weather, still a breeze, the temperatures falling away rapidly so it will feel chilly. there is a nip in the air, and for a time tonight, there is a weather front that will scrape the south coast of england so wet weather from plymouth through portsmouth and possibly into london but you can see the clock, by five o'clock in the morning it is exiting the south—east and the colder air really starts pouring in and reaching southern areas so it will not be frosty in the south this coming night into friday but northern areas will be waking up on friday morning to a good smothering of frost. and here is friday afternoon, wintry showers across the hills, it will feel cold, look at these temperatures, single figures for the south coast as well so frosty nights on the way through the weekend, there is a chilly wind for the north—west and we will have an extra sunshine and showers. some showers around for sure on saturday across northern and north—western areas, the best sunshine across the east of the country and southern and central areas, but that these values, temperatures around 7 degrees. and more sunshine on the way on sunday. less of a chance of catching showers and overall a chilly, bright day for sunday. hello, you're watching afternoon live — i'm simon mccoy. today at 3pm. as a long squeeze on living standards is predicted, the prime minister says the budget will be good for the country. both the chancellor and i agree that what the budget was about: was aboutjobs for people up and down the country. it's about ensuring that people are in work. the jury fails to reach a verdict on the trial of the army sergeant accused of trying to kill his wife by tampering with her parachute. more than 70 people and 20 horses are rescued from floods in lancashire — as bad weather hits the uk. jon venables — one of the killers of 2—year—old james bulger — has been recalled to prison suspected of having child abuse images on his computer. coming up on afternoon live all the sport. we are talking about the ashes. plenty for england to be happy about after the first day of the opening test match. half centuries from james vince and mark stoneman, and they can go into the second a very happy indeed. —— second day. tomasz has all the weather. it is turning colder. yes, a frost is on the way, but at least there will be plenty of sunshine, so there is some good news. thanks, thomasz. also coming up. i'm going to bejoined by two of the leading beatbox exponents in the uk. hello everyone — this is afternoon live. let's prove you wrong — that's the chancellor philip hammonds message to the economists whose bleak forecasts cast something of a shadow over his budget yesterday. the chancellor said clarity around brexit would increase consumer confidence and lead to higher growth in the economy — but labour accuses mr hammond of being "cut—off from the real lives of people". our political correspondent eleanor garnier reports. the government's own fortunes might not have been completely rebuilt but the chancellor's difficult day passed off better than many had hoped, and at a building college in leeds both he and the prime minister spelt out their plans for the future. the chancellor did a very good job yesterday. he was setting out how we will ensure we have an economy fit for the future, but both the chancellor and i agree that what the budget was about was aboutjobs for people up and down the country, about ensuring people are in work with that income for theirfamily. it's about building the homes that they need. he might have safeguarded his own job but the downgrade in economic growth is the big problem on the chancellor's hands. that's why we're investing in infrastructure, in skills, and why we have taken big steps to encourage high—growth businesses like the tech sector, which tend to be higher productivity and help lift the performance of the economy overall. inside the chancellor's red budget box, help for first time buyers, plus more money for the nhs and cash to address concern over universal credit. and he appeased some of his harshest critics, conservative brexiteers, with £3 billion to prepare for leaving the eu. but labour said ordinary people had been let down and accused the chancellor of failing to sort out the country's finances. if you don't invest in this economy and in the infrastructure, if you don't invest in schools, you will have problems with productivity. all the chickens have now come home to roost. seven years of this government failing to invest in our infrastructure and properly in our skills, and we now have a productivity crisis. and now a research group that aims to tackle inequality says the gloomy economic news on top of the government's own policies will end up punishing poorer communities. this grim economic picture is affecting all families and is leading to lower incomes and lower earnings growth right across the income spectrum. but it is the tax and benefit policies of the government that are disproportionately taking away from poorerfamilies. he had very little room for manoeuvre, both politically and financially, too, yet the chancellor seemed to carefully pick off the pressure points the government had been facing. but there's no getting around the huge difficulties the uk economy could be storing up for the future. the budget wasn't the radical reboot many tories had been hoping for, but equally it wasn't the disaster many had feared. for now, the chancellor has silenced his critics, but the future certainly remains challenging. eleanor garner, bbc news, westminster. joining me now from central london is carl emmerson, deputy director of the institute for fiscal studies. it was the predictions that made the headlines yesterday, the average uk earnings in 2022 could be less than in 2008, that will worry many people, that prediction. it is, it is remarkable, 15 years, wages have not kept pace with or grown faster than inflation that has not been seenin than inflation that has not been seen in modern times, included there isa seen in modern times, included there is a risk it will be even longer than that before we get above that level, in 2008, the financial crisis was a big hit to earnings and since then we have seen a remarkably weak recovery. the chancellor says we will prove everyone wrong because the economy is going to take off, is that realistic? we have got to hope that realistic? we have got to hope that the forecasts turn out to be pessimistic, and the fear is they will turn out to be optimistic yet again, so what they are now doing, assuming there will be a bounce back from the recent terrible performance but it won't bounce back all the way back to what we had before the crisis, so maybe we will be better than the obr expects but also possible that things will be even worse. nothing in terms of pay rises in the next few years when inflation is taken into account, is that a false economy? that means income from income tax will be down? yes, as well as households feeling poorer because they are not getting a rising living standards that might have expected, they will be paying less income tax and national insurance and the atm that will affect the government, and instead of having a government surplus at the end of the decade, we're running a deficit of around £30 billion a year —— and the vat. a deficit of around £30 billion a year -- and the vat. in terms of initiatives for homeowning, the headline grabbing getting rid of the first wave of stamp duty, what effect will that have? it is pretty clear that the cut to stamp duty for first—time buyers if they are buying a property worth up to half £1 million will help many first—time buyers, they may find they have to borrow more money to buy the house they want but they will be able to get that hopefully i won't have to pay any stamp duty, so they will end up pay any stamp duty, so they will end up with an asset which is worth more as house prices go up, and so i don't think this is a policy that will make many first—time buyers we re will make many first—time buyers were soft and it will make them better off —— that will make many first—time buyers was off. —— worse off. are we still under france in terms of prosperity? growth is slowing in those other countries, but uk has got worse, and so over five years from 2016 until 2021 the uk is expected have the lowest growth rate of anyone in the g7, so growth rate of anyone in the g7, so growth is slowing, weak productivity growth is slowing, weak productivity growth is slowing, weak productivity growth is something other countries are sharing but uk has caught the bug much was the most. -- much are sharing but uk has caught the bug much was the most.= much worst than most. ings. —— thanks for joining —— thanks forjoining us. that's a pretty grim forecast. these are only predictions, and economists have got these wrong in the past, but they do predict the uk economy will continue to grow. what we do know, uk has produced 3 million newjobs in the last seven years and we now have a2 year low unemployment which is an extraordinarily good record of achievement and we also saw the budget yesterday more money for the nhs and a stamp duty cut for 95% of first—time buyers and 80% of first—time buyers and 80% of first—time buyers, stamp duty will be abolished altogether, so young people are being giving real —— giving real help, so the budget was good news for the country and good news for the young people and the nhs. this prediction that average uk earnings in 2022 could still be less than they are in 2000, that was described as astonishing. —— 2008. you have got to look at tax changes, and so when you look at disposable income, adjusting for tax and inflation, it is higher now than it was in 2010, because we have cut taxes by raising the threshold and we have cut them by £1300 for every worker in the uk. you are right, we would like to see earnings rise faster and we would like to see higher growth and the core of that challenge is productivity, how much output we produce for each hour worked and it is true to say that it has not been growing very fast for the last two years and is lower than it is in some other countries that is why other part of the budget was about productivity can invest in in productivity, which means things like improving infrastructure and projects like crossrail, we have increased the national infrastructure fund and we have increased investment in research and development which drives productivity and put more money into things like a level maths, so if we invest in productivity especially education and research and development and infrastructure i hope we will see productivity growth increase and that will feed through into high wage growth and higher overall growth, so the productivity aspect is the key which unlocks the growth door looking at the future. talking about the experience. there's a lot of hype around. —— hope. some of these achievements are real, which has been delivered by a conservative government put up. the previous chancellor said he would get rid of the deficit. well, we had hoped... there's that word again! well, that is not a bad thing. the deficit used to be 10% of gdp and now is down to 2.5% of gdp, and we wa nted now is down to 2.5% of gdp, and we wanted it to be zero, but i'm not going to apologise for clearing up three quarters of the mess that labour left behind. if you contrast the conservative spending plans to john mcdonnell, is proposing to splurge tens of billions of pounds without the faintest idea how to pay for it and he doesn't even know how much we pay on our national debt interest. we have a shadow chancellor who doesn't do numbers and that would be a truly terrifying prospect that would cause inflation to go up and interest rates to go up and that would really crash the economy, so i think we have got the balance about right, but no one is saying it is easy, because it isn't easy. thanks forjoining us. an army sergeant is to face a retrial on charges of attempting to murder his wife by tampering with her parachute. the first trial jury at winchester crown court failed to reach verdicts. our correspondent, helena lee, is at winchester crown court. what has happened? in the last half an hour, after the seven—week trial, of army sergeant emile cilliers, who is accused of trying to kill his wife on two separate occasions in 2015, he was facing three charges and the first one attempting to tamper with a gas fixture at the family home in 2015 and the second charge was endangering the lives of two children and the third charge he was facing, attempting to sabotage his wife's parachute which the prosecution had said he had hoped his wife would fall to her death. victoria cilliers survived the accident in 2015 and when she jumped out of the plane she described to the court, giving evidence, her main parachute was twisted and she tried to use her reserve parachute but that also file. she fell a000 feet to the ground and it was a numerical that she survived —— it was a near miracle. emile cilliers has denied all the charges. in the last half an hour the jury has been discharged from this case, and thejudge, mr justice weenie came back into court, and he said thejury had said there was no realistic prospect of them reaching a unanimous or majority verdict on any of those three camps —— justice sweeney. the judge thanked the jury and he dismissed them, and they left the court. we know from the crown prosecution service, the main prosecutor stood up service, the main prosecutor stood up and said they would be seeking a retrial in this case, suggesting the samejudge would retrial in this case, suggesting the same judge would sit on that retrial but thejudge said same judge would sit on that retrial but the judge said that wasn't a decision that was up to him. the judge also said he would hope that the retrial would take place sooner rather than later given that those alleged events took place in 2015. soa alleged events took place in 2015. so a retrial will take place or they will be seeking a retrial, the jury discharged from this case that has taken place in court over the last seven weeks. brakes. the argentine navy is investigating reports of a sound heard a few hours after it lost contact with one of its submarines a week ago there are concerns that the aa crew on board the sanjuan submarine could be running low on oxygen. translation: we received information it was a singular and violent and non—nuclear event, consistent with an explosion. dozens of people had to be rescued from their homes in parts of cumbria and lancashire last night after heavy rainfall caused flooding. more than 70 people were helped to safety after the emergency services received hundreds of calls. this a number of flood warnings are still in place. our correspondent becky barr is in galgate in lancashire and has sent us this update. i'm just to the south of lancaster where the clean—up operation is well underway. we had a huge amount of rain all day yesterday and well into the night. the floodwaters came up very quickly. where we are in this village, there is a river that runs through the centre of the village and at ten o'clock last night the river finally burst its banks. many businesses and homes were flooded. people i've spoken to said they were shocked by how quickly the water rose. from ten o'clock people reported water lapping at their doors and some people said by midnight it was at waist height in their homes. as you can see behind me, lancashire fire and rescue services are working very hard now the water has receded to pump out basements in this village. they are expected to be here for some time doing just that, there is a huge amount of damage, and also disruption. even for people who weren't flooded. roads have been closed, the m6 half a mile away from here, several lanes were closed for much of the day, railways were affected, the local school in this village is closed, so there is a great knock on effect. it's only november and there are more flood warnings in place, so people are really worried that this could be a long hard

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