and coming up in the sport on bbc news... former england rugby league international rangi chase has been banned from all sports for two years after testing positive for cocaine injuly. good afternoon and welcome to the bbc news at one. britain is in danger of losing two decades of earnings growth — that's the warning from the economic think tank, the institute for fiscal studies. the chancellor, philip hammond, says he hopes to prove wrong the bleak economic forecasts released in yesterday's budget. he said the next couple of years will bring clarity over brexit and that would increase consumer confidence and help the economy to grow faster. conservative mps have rallied behind the chancellor, calling his budget solid and common—sense. but labour have accused mr hammond of being "cut—off from the real lives of people". our political correspondent eleanor garner reports. the government's on fortunes might not have been completely rebuilt but the chancellor's difficult day passed off better than many had hoped and at a building college in leeds both he and the prime minister spelt out their plans for the future. the chancellor did a very good job yesterday. he was setting out how we will ensure we have an economy fit for the future but both the chancellor and i agree that what the chancellor and i agree that what the budget was about was aboutjobs for people and the country, about ensuring people are in work without income for theirfamily. ensuring people are in work without income for their family. it's about building the homes they need. he might have safeguarded his own job but the downgrade in economic growth is the big problem on his hands. that is why we are investing in infrastructure, in skills, why we have ta ken infrastructure, in skills, why we have taken big steps to encourage high—growth businesses like the tech sector which tend to be higher productivity and lift the performance of the economy overall. inside the chancellor's read budget box, help for first time buyers inside the chancellor's read budget box, help forfirst time buyers plus more money for the nhs and cash to address concern over universal credit. and he appeased to some of his harshest critics, conservative fixity is, with £3 million to prepare for leaving the eu. but labour said ordinary people have been let down and accused the chancellor of failing to sort out the country's finances. if you don't invest in this economy, in the infrastructure and schools, you will have problems with productivity. seven yea rs have problems with productivity. seven years of this government failing to invest in our infrastructure and properly in skills and we now have a productivity crisis. and now a research group says the gloomy economic news on top of the government's on policies will end up punishing poorer communities. this grim economic picture is affecting all families and leading to lower earnings growth across the spectrum but it is the tax and benefit policies of the government that are disproportionately taking away from poorerfamilies. disproportionately taking away from poorer families. he had very little room for manoeuvre, both politically and financially too, yet the chancellor seemed to pick off the pressure point the government had been facing. but there is no getting around the difficulties the uk economy could be storing up for the future. the budget wasn't the radical reboot many tories had been hoping for, but equally it wasn't the disaster many had feared. now the disaster many had feared. now the chancellor has silenced his critics but the future certainly remains challenging. our assistant political editor norman smith is in westminster. these warnings about the economy and future will worry a lot of people, has the government done anything to ease pressure on families and living standards? sophie, if you are of a happy, optimistic disposition, may i suggest you turn away now because this morning we have had a whole battery of independent forecasters sketching out a pretty bleak future, suggesting that we are now facing a real economic slowdown which could drag on for years and years and yea rs. drag on for years and years and years. one suggesting that living standards are set to face the biggest long—term pressure they have faced since the 1950s, another saying that wages in 2023 will be no higher than they were in 2008. happy days it is not. the chancellor's view is we can either sit around, stare at each other and plunge into despair or try and do something about it. his argument is that in the budget there are measures to try to ease the pressure on family budgets so the personal allowance has been raised, fuel duty has been frozen, help for home—buyers and money going into research and development to try to boost productivity. i think the difficulty is the scale, the enormity of the changes and challenges identified by these forecasters is such that it might simply overwhelm these incremental changes. for example they point to the fact we are becoming an older society, are less productive society. many people in work are already doing maybe two or threejobs to work are already doing maybe two or three jobs to make up for the squeeze on wages. there is in that spare capacity to boost productivity. but forecasters have got it wrong before, spectacularly wrong before, and i think we have to hope they have got it wrong again. norman smith in westminster, thank you. well, the major think tank the institute for fiscal studies has been crunching the numbers after the budget. it has calculated that infouryears‘ time, growth in average earnings will be £1,400 lower than was predicted last year. our economics correspondent andy verity is outside the ifs in central london. what have they been saying? sophie, as norman was mentioning, it is all about productivity. before the financial crisis it used to be the case that each worker would produce about 2% more than they did the previous year and that drove economic growth. you can either add people to the economy to drive economic growth, which was what we have been largely doing for the last ten years, or make each of those people more productive. it is that thatis people more productive. it is that that is underlying the whole reason for the squeeze on living standards. ifan for the squeeze on living standards. if an employer isn't getting more output from each employee, it is harderfor output from each employee, it is harder for them output from each employee, it is harderfor them to pay output from each employee, it is harder for them to pay those employees more than inflation. the director for the institute for fiscal studies spoke to me earlier and underlined how bad that living standards squeeze was going to be. the squeeze on living standards over the decade so far is historically unprecedented. what's remarkable is it looks like we have got at least another five years to go before we get anywhere near to having earnings back where they were in 2008. that is wholly unprecedented, certainly the worst since the mid—19th century and possibly worse since even before then. and the analysis the institute for fiscal studies is doing is going on behind me in this building. the u nfortu nate on behind me in this building. the unfortunate thing is they are saying these forecasts on which these gloomy predictions are being made may be too optimistic. in fact the obr is predicting productivity will improve by growth of i% obr is predicting productivity will improve by growth of 1% per year, more than it's been for the last ten yea rs. more than it's been for the last ten years. the amount spent on housing won't put much of a dent in the problem, just 1.5 billion extra pounds per year. this depends on the forecast being right and the policies being implemented, neither of those are certain. andy verity, thank you. dozens of people had to be rescued from their homes in parts of cumbria and lancashire last night after heavy rainfall caused flooding. more than 70 people were helped to safety after the emergency services received hundreds of calls. a number of flood warnings are still in place. our correspondent danny savage reports. after hours of heavy rain, the river in galgate near lancaster finally burst its banks last night, causing chaos and misery. people had realised flooding was imminent and tried to get their belongings to safety. itjust came in faster and faster and faster and there came a point where we were bucketing it out, bailing it out. we had pumps going. it came a point where it was bucket versus river and the river won. and it is now like this. i have lifted as much as i can from the ground—floor but there are bikes down there, my cooker‘s gone, my boiler, washing machine, dishwasher, everything. this morning, the water had receded and left a familiar scene of salvage and disposal. the water wasn't in for long but it doesn't have to be. a few minutes is enough to destroy and ruin. no warning. the warning was the people on the street going, "argh, we need some help!" or the road was just coming up and water was just gushing everywhere. further north in cumbria, water caused more problems in a county familiar with flooding. they had prepared for the worst here, with the emergency services sent to help. there was trouble for travellers, too. the west coast main line was flooded north of preston, leading to long delays, and that dreaded alternative — the rail replacement bus service. north wales was hit as well. many roads in anglesey were flooded, leaving people unable to get to where they wanted to. pretty bad, believe me. the river was flowing down this side of the road, instead of down where the river is. i've never seen anything like it in 70 years i've been living here. it's just unbelievable. i've never seen anything like it in my life and i've been brought up here. and it wasjust, well, shocking. once again, the vulnerability of parts of north—west england and wales to heavy rain has been highlighted. is this the start of another long, wet winter? danny savage, bbc news, lancashire. the labour party says it is suspending the mp for bury south, ivan lewis. in a statement a party spokesman said... "the labour party takes all allegations of sexual harassment extremely seriously. ivan lewis is currently suspended from the labour party pending an investigation." one of the people who killed the toddlerjames bulger in 1993 has been returned to prison for a second time after suspected child abuse images were found on a computer linked to him. jon venables, along with robert thompson, tortured and killed the two—year—old in liverpool when they themselves werejust children. our home affairs correspondent daniel sandford is here. what more do you know about this? these are images which appear to be illegal images of child abuse, there is now a police investigation going on. they were found on a computer linked tojon on. they were found on a computer linked to jon venables on. they were found on a computer linked tojon venables during a routine visit last week. he was returned to prison and the police are investigating but the issue for the authorities is that he actually pleaded guilty in 2010 to child abuse images found on his computer. he was returned to prison at that point and released again in 2013, all of that after having been released in 2001 is quite co ntroversially, released in 2001 is quite controversially, less than eight yea rs controversially, less than eight years after the murder of james bulger. for those who don't remember, jon venables was ten years old when he was convicted of murdering two—year—old james bulger after torturing him in a shopping centre. james bulger‘s mother reacted strongly last night on facebook saying, i'm absolutely fuming that once again on the loss to know. this happened a week ago and i've only got informed hours before it hit the press. in a longer statement, she said "i predicted ve na bles statement, she said "i predicted venables would reoffend unless they kept a tight rein on him and i pray now that someone from the uk government will finally listen to me". so a lot of strong words from james bulger‘s mother. me". so a lot of strong words from james bulger's mother. thank you. zimbabwe is getting ready for the presidential inauguration tomorrow of emmerson mnangagwa, the former vice president whose sacking a fortnight ago led to the sudden demise of robert mugabe. mr mnangagwa will be only the second leader zimbabwe has had in 37 years. ben brown is in the capital harare, where more celebrations are expected tomorrow. the new president will be sworn in tomorrow, is already promising a new democracy here and jobs, jobs, jobs. meanwhile there's an unconfirmed report today that robert mugabe has been granted immunity from prosecution. he has said he wants to stay and die in zimbabwe and not go into exile. we have been asking people on the streets here in harare whether they think he and his wife grace should be prosecuted. as for mugabe, he can be left alone. after all, it's his wealth that he has acquired so far, and he can have it all. the deed has been done. the thing that people have been wanting all this time, for 37 years, it's ok, it has been done, we are happy so far. but his wife, well, i bet my bottom dollar she should be prosecuted. we're happy with what they have done, removing him, and it is what we have been hoping for. so you think he should be prosecuted? yes, he had to be prosecuted for the things he did, but there's nothing we could do about it, but we're hoping he will be prosecuted. and what about grace, his wife? we would want her to be prosecuted, definitely. i think he should be prosecuted because he did a lot of scandals during his era, so i think that decision. you think he should be put on trial? yeah, he must be put on trial. i'm joined here by an opposition member of parliament. james, do you think mr mugabe should be prosecuted? yes, he is a zimbabwean citizen like the rest of us. you think he committed crimes? yes, and one of the reason i impeached him is because he committed crimes against humanity. 20,000 people died in his role in the period between 1982 and 1987 and that cannot be swept under the carpet. a new president sworn in tomorrow, promising a new democracy, do you believe him? the taste of the pudding is in the eating. until he is in office, i really don't want to judge him. let him get into office and his first 100 days we will be able to determine whether here's a good president. 0k, thank you. certainly all zimbabweans i think keeping a wary eye on the new president. our top story this lunchtime... a grim outlook for the economy — amid warnings that the uk is in danger of losing two decades of earnings growth, theresa may says the government recognises the financial pressures people face. coming up... good news for coffee drinkers — three to four mugs a day may have health benefits. coming up in sport... england rugby union captain dylan hartley will not start a match for the first time under head coach eddiejones. jamie george will start against samoa as one of nine changes to the starting 15. smaug across cities and towns in the uk is causing increasing concern, as britain fails to hit it air pollution targets. today, mayor of london sadiq khan called for a clean air act suitable for the 21st century, as mps from four separate committees conduct a "super enquiry" asking whether the government is doing enough to cut illegal levels of pollution. our environment analyst roger harrabin reports. a message from children to the people who govern them — give us air that's fit to breathe. these youngsters petitioning downing street attend schools where pollution levels break the law. street attend schools where pollution levels break the lawm is quite bad for the children at our school because our front playground is right next to a busy road and that's really not good for our health. members of four parliamentary committees are conducting what is being dubbed a super inquiry into air pollution. mps were told the uk needs a new clea n mps were told the uk needs a new clean air act. the act of 1950s was brought about because of the great smoke. factories were churning out this stuff and smoke suffered outside, leading to thousands of people dying. you could see it. politicians in the 50s passed the clea n politicians in the 50s passed the clean air act. diesel vehicles are the biggest cause of the problem. in the biggest cause of the problem. in the budget yesterday, the chancellor did increase attacks on dirty diesel ca i’s did increase attacks on dirty diesel cars but not vans. we only apply this measure to cars so before the headline writers start limbering up, let me be clear, no white van man or woman will be hit by these measures. the chancellor also announced £220 million for a airformed. the chancellor also announced £220 million for a air formed. it could have been used to help people get out of their diesel car and make a switch to alternative forms of transport. but this is a complex problem. pollution also comes from construction machinery, from gas boilers, from farming even, from wood fires. and from our car tyres as they wear down. the government insists it is cleaning up the air as fast as it can. it says it doesn't wa nt to fast as it can. it says it doesn't want to dictate policy to local councils. for years, air pollution has been a non—issue in the media, but for parents, children, pedestrians, cyclists, it's an issue now and it's not likely to go away. the physical and mental health of around 15,000 former professional footballers is going to be studied by researchers who are trying to determine the long term impact of heading a football. the fa and the professional footballers‘ association have commissioned the research growing concern about the long—term effect that contact sport can have on the brain. our sports correspondent joe wilson is here. they are looking at 15,000 former professional footballers. it begs the question, why only now?l professional footballers. it begs the question, why only now? a good question. i am sure that is the question. i am sure that is the question that the family of a former professional england player who died in 2002 will be asking. he was a centre forward and headed the ball a great deal. after his death, the coroner at the inquest made a direct link between the effects of repeatedly heading the football and the brain injury that ultimately caused his death. research has begun and has been stops start. the fa are saying they hope this will be the most con brands of studies ever commission. —— one of the most comprehensive. they are going to compare the life experience of those players to normal individuals to try to work out if there is any concrete link between heading the football and long—term degenerative brain injury. but we know it is going to ta ke two injury. but we know it is going to take two or three years, they say, and even the doctor who is leading this in glasgow, who has been a leading voice, in his words he wants to establish some understanding. so, whether the concrete link will be proved, we will wait and see but people say it is long overdue. you can imagine worried parents. your kids play football, mine do. what do pa rents kids play football, mine do. what do pa re nts to ? kids play football, mine do. what do parents to? it is a good point because this is looking at professional football but it is such a wide mass participation sport and you see a ten or 11—year—old heading the ball, part of you wants to say, "well done, that's great," and part of you wonders whether you should tell them for doing that. in the united states already you aren't allowed to head a football under 11. we all know the real benefits that come with playing sport, especially perhaps team sports, and the dangers of inactivity. indeed. thank you. a toddler has died in hospital after being discovered seriously hurt at a house in birmingham. police say the 21—month—old girl, found at a house in the northfield area of birmingham on sunday, died at the city's children's hospital yesterday evening. a 30—year—old woman and a 28—year—old man have been arrested on suspicion of causing or allowing serious injury to a child. there's some good news for coffee drinkers. research published in the british medicaljournal suggests that drinking three to four mugs of coffee a day, compared to drinking none, is more likely to benefit your health than cause harm. researchers say it's linked to a lower likelihood of developing heart problems. helen briggs reports. a daily caffeine fix. for many of us it is an essential part of the day but it has long been debated whether that cup of coffee is good or bad for you. i think any more than two cups of coffee kind of accelerates the stress a bit more so i draw the line at two. i feel like most things are good in moderation and if you drink good coffee, then it should be good for your health. i can sometimes drink about six cups and then i can't sleep at night. so it's learning what that balance is. to try to find the answer, doctors at the university of southampton sifted through 200 studies, looking at how coffee affects the body. they say the benefits of drinking 3—4 cups a day outweigh the risks for most people. pregnant women are still advised to limit consumption. coffee drinking was linked to a lower evidence of heart disease and some cancers that the researchers could not prove coffee drinking was the cause. the doctor who carried out the research says unbalance coffee in moderation is likely to be beneficial. most of the studies have been an caffeinated coffee but there is less evidence on decaffeinated but where we have looked at those, they seem to find some of the benefits that are there with caffeine aided studies, suggesting it is more thanjust caffeine and that coffee has a lot of active substances that might be good for our long—term health. of active substances that might be good for our long-term health. and experts say further studies are needed before drinking coffee to prevent disease could be recommended, not least because it is often accompanied by cream, sugary syrup often accompanied by cream, sugary syrup or cake. helen briggs, bbc news. the uk has been told that none of its towns and cities can now compete to the european capital of culture. the 70th ashes series is under way in australia, and england have done better than many expected. they reached 196—4 at the end of the first day in brisbane. they recovered from the loss of alastair cook in the third over, with mark stone and james vince sharing a partnership of 125 on their ashes debuts. our sports correspondent andy swiss sent this report. it is almost a national hobby. beating england is what australia have done so often hear and their fa ns have done so often hear and their fans flocked to the stadium with the confidence to match the visitors' caution. without ben stokes, england's low—key line—up began as the ashes underdogs and after opting to bat, it didn't take long to see why. mitchell starc snaring alastair cook forjust two. why. mitchell starc snaring alastair cook for just two. the script seemed worryingly familiar. australia's pace man floundering in. instead of a collapse, a comeback. not many expected james vince to be picked for this tour but he set about showing why, as australia's passion was dampened with a rain delay helping england feel even more at home. the hosts' much hyped attack looking toothless until this. stoneman in statically bold for 53 before a moment of brilliance in the field from nathan lyon. after his pre—ashes fighting talk, some way to back it up. vince ran out for 83 and suddenly the pendulum had beard australia's way. joe root surviving an lbw decision but not for long. the review showed he was out, the skipper gone for 15. before a view morale boosting blows from moeen ali help to guide england through to the close. for the fans, a first day of fluctuating fortunes. england's impressive start followed by australia's late resurgence. the early signs suggest this could be a competitive series. i think about moment it is reasonably even. the first hour tomorrow will determine how we look back at day one. getting through that new ball early in the morning and hopefully building up towards 300, 350, 400 if we go well. and absorbing start to the ashes but england know the hard work has only just begun. satellite images of the earth at night have revealed that artificial light is getting brighter and brighter every year. light pollution is expanding across the planet by more than 2% a year thanks to more and more lights going on in south america, africa and asia. scientists say the increase in light pollution will have negative consequences for human health and the environment — as our science reporter, victoria gill, explains. as the sun goes down on towns and cities, the lights go on. and those lights are getting brighter all the time. these images, gathered by a sensor on a nasa satellite, show that more and more of our planet is now artificially lit. i can remember back to the time when i was a grad student and first saw the pictures of earth at night. i was really astounded by how beautiful they were. but, of course, you have to think that this is a very dramatic physical change to the biosphere and it actually costs a massive amount of money, so it's really kind of a problem. in developing nations, including india, the increase was dramatic, from this in 2012... to this in 2016. the researchers expected that most developed nations would actually darken as they changed the type of street lighting they used, from older orange glaring lamps to more efficient led bulbs. but that hasn't happened. urban bright spots in the uk and other nations in europe continue to glow even more intensely intensely, as towns and cities increased their outdoor lighting. that orangey glow in the sky above the city, it's all too familiar to so many of us. it stops most of us from seeing a natural night sky but it also has an impact on our health. night—time lighting, especially the blue light from leds, can reset our internal body clocks, depriving us of valuable sleep. and in the environment, it can disrupt cues that nocturnal animals like bats rely on. it has even been found to shift some fundamental seasonal clockwork, influencing the timing of plant flowering and bird migration. scientists say that images like these are evidence that we're losing our natural night—time. victoria gill, bbc news. time for a look at the weather. here's tomasz schafernaker. it is going to be a lot colder this weekend. it certainly is. frost is on the way before i shed light on the forecast, iam going. before i shed light on the forecast, i am going. about the dreadful rain in the north because that was terrible. i want to point out that it was actually a relatively small area and it was disastrous in the area and it was disastrous in the area itself but many areas didn't as much rainfall. it was a persistent area of rain that kept coming and coming and in the space of one hour in one or two locations, that's when we have most of the rainfall and we had the wind in so many parts of the uk. but now i think the worst of the rain and wind has cleared and we are infora rain and wind has cleared and we are in for a cold snap. the air in the jet stream is bringing colder air from the north. this is what happens around the globe, you get these tips and pea ks around the globe, you get these tips and peaks and troughs of mild and cold so we are in this tip of cold airand with cold so we are in this tip of cold air and with that, also, wind and air and with that, also, wind and aircoming all the air and with that, also, wind and air coming all the way from the far north, from the norwegian sea, and that will be in place across the uk for quite a few

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