You said, a 100 acre paradise. The creation of winnie the pooh is the focus of a new british film. Well get Mark Kermodes thoughts on this and the rest of the cinema releases in the film review. Good evening and welcome to bbc news. The governor of the bank of england has given his strongest indication so far that Interest Rates could rise, possibly as early as november. But mark carney told the bbc that any increase would be limited and gradual. The base rate was cut to the Current Record low of a quarter of 1 , after the Eu Referendum last year, but higher inflation, has put pressure on the bank to step in and raise rates. Our Business Editor simonjack reports. Great for borrowers, miserable for savers. Interest rates are at their lowest level since the bank of england was founded over 300 years ago. But today, the governor of the bank sent the strongest signal yet that that might be about to change. What we have said is that if the economy continues on the track that it has been on, and all indications are that it is, in the relatively near term we can expect that Interest Rates would increase somewhat. The last time rates went up was more than ten years ago, in 2007. Many younger borrowers have never experienced one, but if it happens, what impact will it have . The most obvious one will be on the 11 million homeowners who have variable rate or tracker mortgages. Those borrowers have an average outstanding mortgage of £116,000. A quarter point rise would mean an increase of £15 in monthly mortgage payments. Im not very happy about it because of my mortgage. Im not on a fixed mortgage. It would be great to get more interest on my savings. Why, after a decade of downward moves, is now the right time to reverse direction . This is a time when the economy is pretty strong, especially as unemployment is pretty low, so there is a good chance inflationary pressures are growing from that side. Also, inflation is above target, so it is a good time to raise rates from the extremely low level where they have been. Consumer debt is also worrying the bank, having grown to over £200 billion over the last year, the highest level since the crisis. These superlow Interest Rates have made it cheaper for us to borrow and spend, but that spending can push up inflation, which is already higher than the bank would like. So perhaps time for an adjustment. There are also those in the bank who think it is not a bad idea to have a bit of room between us and zero to give them more options in the future. Celebrating 20 years of independence from government, the governor of the bank of england said there were limits to its power. The biggest determinants of the uks medium term prosperity will be the countrys new relationship with the eu and the series of reforms that relationship catalyses. Most of the necessary adjustments are real in nature and therefore not in the gift of monetary policymakers. In english, that means politicians are in the Economic Driving seat now. Only two of nine rate setters voted for a rise last month, so it is not a done deal, but it is worth bracing ourselves for the first increase in a decade. Simon jack, bbc news. And well find out how this story and many others are covered in tomorrows front pages at 10 40 this evening in the papers columnist at the daily mirror and tim stanley, of the telegraph. Our guestsjoining me tonight are susie boniface, columnist at the daily mirror and tim stanley, of the telegraph. Teachers in england and wales may get a more sizeable pay rise next year after the government hinted that it would lift the 1 cap due to a Skills Shortage. In a letter published today, liz truss, the chief secretary to the treasury, said while pay discipline was still needed, Public Sector workers deserved to have fulfilling jobs that are fairly rewarded. Ministers have previously said that pay recommendations needed to stay within a 1 average cap in line with other Public Sector pay. Lets talk to the editor of school week, laura mcinerney. Thank you forjoining us. Where, in particular, is there a Skills Shortage in the teaching profession . We are seeing shortages across the board but in particular there are problems around modern languages and Foreign Languages and maths and physics. Maths and physics have long been a problem but the problem is acute for languages as well because the government wants more children doing that at gcse level. How much has do with the compared to it being an attractive occupation . When teachers leave the profession they tend to go intojobs teachers leave the profession they tend to go into jobs that pay less, so some tend to go into jobs that pay less, so some of the reasons why we do not have teachers is not to do with pay and more to do with conditions, but we also know that early entry wages, thatis we also know that early entry wages, that is the wages that dragged us look at, they are going up in many other professions and dejan is not keeping pace, and that is a problem in getting new people and to fill the roles of those have left to or paid jobs. We believe that the letter in question may have gone to all eight pay review bodies, so why would teachers have special pleading for extra pay over and above other Public Sector workers . That is what the School Teachers review body will have to figure out. What it must do is look at the evidence. All the government is telling us is that you can recommend higher than a 1 pay increase next year which they have not been allowed to do for the past few years but that review body could come back and it could say that we think that the pay is fine and that 1 would be ok. But after some years of the key being flat, of increases being kept down, and in a period of inflation, how much wood salaries need to rise by two be very attractive to the best graduates . The moment, i can give you a figure, but i the moment, i can give you a figure, but i can not give you a figure at the moment but we know that the entry level wages for graduates are a lot higher. You could get £25,000 to begin teaching whereas. Lawrie, we have lost you. The pay is frozen, we have lost you. The pay is frozen, we have lost the sound. But we got the idea, didnt we . 0ur we have lost the sound. But we got the idea, didnt we . Our apologies that we lost that interview. It was designed to transform the benefits system, making it simpler, and encourage people into work. But universal credit, which combines six benefits into one, has been strongly criticised by a former top government adviser. Dame louise casey, who was head of the governments troubled families unit, has told the bbc that the way its being implemented made her hair stand on end. She says claimants could be left in dire circumstances, waiting weeks for their benefits. 0ur social Affairs CorrespondentMichael Buchanan reports now from Great Yarmouth, one of the pilot areas for the new scheme. There are still some tourists in Great Yarmouth but as the Summer Season closes, the cracks in the towns charm become more obvious. Part of the seaside resort are among the most deprived areas in england. The Perfect Place therefore to test the biggest welfare change in decades. The localjob centre has been delivering universal credit for almost 18 months. This woman, an unemployed carer, applied two weeks ago. Progress payment is due in a month. How much money do you have . Nothing. They give you a meal at the local butchers in the high street for a small donation. It brings together six benefits into one monthly payment. Claimants usually have to wait six weeks for the first payment. Any benefits they already get stopped once claim is lodged. Ive been in debt with the rent forever. Since it started, yes. This woman wrapped up hundreds of pounds of debt, rent arrears and utility bills, during the six weeks she was waiting for money. I hate being in debt and i dont like debt. And it ruins your life, you know. It spirals out of control so fast when you are in debt and having to go to food banks. They were a godsend and they were brilliant, but it was only what . Six months ago that i was giving stuff to this food bank myself. Great yarmouth is one of the first basis to feel the full effect of universal credit. The fear is that some of the problems that have emerged in debt, increased use of food banks, will appear in other places as well. As the benefit is rolled out across the country. By some landlords here, time has run out for their tenants. The rising rent arrears theyd seen since universal credit started has caused them to take drastic action. Evictions have gone through the roof. Ive personally served more repossession notices in the last 18 months than i have in the last 25 years. And when i have a vacancy, i will be asking the person who calls me, how do you intend to pay the rent . If it is via universal credit then the answer will be no. At a small soup kitchen, the homeless gather for some free food. Kelly is here making herfor 4p stretch as far as possible. Another grateful mouth is gary, a man who says he is homeless due to universal credit. That is all weve got here now. As we head down towards his tent, he says he has been turned down by 58 private landlords. Since ive gone to meet them and said i am on universal credit it is a no. They have got no room. That happens but then they dont have rooms. If you tell them on the phone that youre on universal credit, what do they say . They hang up pretty much. The payment would cover any rent. This is where i live. The problem is the benefit is causing Great Yarmouth means that for now this is home. The headlines on bbc news the governor of the bank of england gives his clearest signal yet that Interest Rates are set to rise for the first time in ten years. The 1 cap on teachers pay in england could be lifted, after the treasury accepted more flexibility was needed in areas of Skills Shortage. Ukip has elected a new leader the former army officer and one time liberal democrat parliamentary candidate henry bolton. Sport now, and time for a full roundup from the bbc sport centre. Englands cricketers have ended their longest summer by making short work of the west indies in theirfinal one day international. An unbeaten century from Jonny Bairstow helped them to a comprehensive nine wicket victory in southampton and a 4 0 series win. West indies batted first and scored 288 for 6 in their 50 overs. With Liam Plunkett taking two wickets. But it was quickly clear that wasnt enough runs. As an opening stand of 156. Including 96 from jason roy. And Jonny Bairstows second ton of the series he eventually finished 0111111 not out helped england reached their target with 12 overs to spare. Joe root rounding off the series. And summer. With a six. Leeds are playing hull fc for a place in the Super League Grand final. With hull going for a league and cup double. But having lost on each of their last 12 visits to headingley. Theyre trailing again tonight. The 0spreys poor start to the season has continued after falling to a fourth successive defeat in the pr014 to the cheetahs in bloemfontein. Despite leading at half time the welsh side were beaten 44 points to 25. Torsten vanjaarsveld and wing Makazole Mapimpi each scored two tries to send the south africans to second in the conference a table. Elsewhere in the pr014 tonight. The leaders of that conference, glasgow against italian side benetton. While either leinster or scarlets could be top of conference b by the end of the evening if they win home matches against edinburgh and connacht respectively. And there are three matches underway in the premiership too. Saracens andnewcastle are the two teams vying for top spot tonight. Here are the current scores. Manchester city striker Sergio Aguero has broken a rib following a car crash in amsterdam last night. Manager Pep Guardiola confirmed the injury before he had had a chance to see aguero who missed training this morning because of the incident involving a taxi. Hes being assessed by the clubs medical team this afternoon and guardiolas told a press conference he wasnt sure how much of the season aguero might miss. 0ur reporter simon stone was there. In terms of aguero, he was clearly in holland. Yes, it was his day off but it was 11pm when he had the accident. Is that a problem for you . No. Purely because it was a day for him. Have you spoken to him yet. Have you spoken to him yet . Not yet. But it is ok, in terms of what happened, it is ok. Theres one fixture taking place in the scottish premiership tonight as rangers travel to hamilton. The home side took less than a minute to take the lead. Daniel redmond with the goal to give accies the lead. That advantage lasted just twenty minutes declanjohn levelling things. And the same player has just put rangers in front the visitors leading 3 1 with just over half an hour played in that match. That is all your spot for the moment, much more in the next hour. Ukip have announced their new leader he is henry bolton. The former army officer was elected the partys fourth leader injust over a year. Anti islam campaigner anne marie waters came second. His victory was announced at the partys conference which is taking place in torquay. He addressed the conference and set out ukips purpose going forwards. Today is not only a crucial day for our party, it is a critical day for our country. And weve already heard today from a number of speakers of the importance of holding the government to task for the delivery on that mandate that they were given on the 23rd ofjune last year, which so far they have failed to deliver anything on. Ladies and gentlemen, brexit is our core task. Applause. So where is ukip heading and how will they work to get back voters they lost in the last election . Professor of politics at strathclyde university, john curtice, joins me from our glasgow studio. Thank you forjoining us. She has said that brexit remains the purpose, why, when we know that we are leaving the eu . The terms under which we will leave the European Union and our future which we will leave the European Union and ourfuture relationship with it has not yet been determined and certainly for most ukip porters and certainly for most ukip porters and undoubtedly for most of the party members, what is central to the aspirations for brexit is that certainly, the uk is no longer signed up to freedom of movement. They will also object to us still being subject to the European Court ofjustice being subject to the European Court of justice and frankly, being subject to the European Court ofjustice and frankly, they will wa nt ofjustice and frankly, they will want that agenda delivered sooner rather than later. So far, of course, theresa may seems to be on the same page any kind of brexit that she is offering in that it is one that appeals to ukip and it seems to be instrumental in the colla pse seems to be instrumental in the collapse of ukip support in the general election. But, of course, if theresa may proves unable to deliver on the vision of brexit that she has so on the vision of brexit that she has so far offered, if, in the end, the uk perhaps it does allow something close to freedom of movement and if immigration into the uk does not come down, then ukip will be hoping that once again they can restore themselves from frankly the absolute floor to which they fell in the 2017 election. Yes, how can they hope to influence things in Parliament Without any mps . Well, in truth, the influence of ukip does not lie in the votes and the mps that they get. The influence lies in the extent to which they are able to pressure the conservative party through taking votes away from them. Why did we have the referendum 12 months ago . Well, because david cameron, the then prime minister, was concerned that the rise of ukip that was in evidence by 2013, it was taking votes away from his party such that its prospects of winning the next general election in 2015 would be seriously damaged. That is where the leading edge of ukip came from. The fa ct leading edge of ukip came from. The fact that they are not in parliament does not matter, what matters is whether ukip can restore itself to its former fortunes and in so doing damage the election fortunes of the current government. They cannot afford for its position to be damaged in that damaged in that regard, they could not for example, a four day string of by election losses which could be resulting in votes being haemorrhaged to ukip. That is why ukip martyred and it has mattered up until now and how it could matter in the future but so far, the one simple success that theresa may hide in the general election was taking the ukip vote, there is no sign so far of it going back but certainly that is what mr bolton and his colleagues will be hoping happens if theresa may fails to deliver the brexit that they are looking for. Henry bolton previously stood as a lib dem and now he is leader of ukip, how did that come about . They are always strange bedfellows and you must remember that not all lib dems are signed up to the european project. Perhaps this first immediately job to the european project. Perhaps this first immediatelyjob must be to stop ukip being frankly a bit of a laughing stock. The fact that they anja bijnens on the last bid for 18 days and paul nuttall frankly did not survive the fire, they need somebody who can provide at least a sold leadership for the party and suggests that it knows what its doing. I suspect what he will not be able to provide is the charisma that nigel farage was able to provide which, frankly, without which, the party would never have made progress and in the absence of which it is probably going to struggle to look anything like the force that it did t