europe. your regular guide to the top stories in brussels and transport. 0n today's programme: angela merkel and martin shilts fight it out in the closing weeks of the german election campaign. what will the outcome mean for the future of the eu. —— schulz. never mind brexit, let's push on with the european project. that was the message from the president of the european commission. is he right? while britain regrets leaving? and brexit will leave empty seats in the european parliament. what are the remaining 27 countries do with them? —— what short? so all that to come and more in the next 30 minutes. joining us today a journalist tony young and anne mcelvoy. first up, here is a guide to the latest from europe in just 60 seconds. a good job took centre stage in strathbogie this state of the union speech this week. but meps also discussed evil gates, 0x wagon and admission scandal new testing regimes in germany and austria introduced earlier this month after a parliamentary enquiry made recommendations. 1.2 billion euros in eu aid was given to italy to help repair damaged caused by recent earthquakes. the massive pay—out is the biggest ever under the eu solidarity fund. and meps approved a motion calling on norway, a member of the european economic area, to get a commercial whaling off its coast. away from the european parliament, protest took place across france on tuesday against president macron‘s controversial changes to the country's labor and with german elections over a week away, all polls show angela merkel is 15% ahead of her social democratic rival martin schulz. a party the christian democratic union should remain the largest and is likely to fall short of a majority. let's talk more now about those coming elections in germany. it is they go to the polls next sunday, on they go to the polls next sunday, on the 24th of september. the angela merkel is the clear favourite to secure a fourth term in office. what could mean for germany, europe and the uk if she is re—elected? i'm joined the former lab mp who was born and raised in germany. she is in hour was the studio. thank you giesele forjoining us. we have had lots of surprising political results around the world. our people right to be so certain that merkel will be no fourth term? -- will win. if you look at polling results it's usually the trend and indicators and the problem with the social democrats is that it problem with the social democrats is thatitis problem with the social democrats is that it is simply not getting any better in returns so i would rather regrets that it is not look as bob martin shilts will win the election and the interesting thing in the german system is who is going to be the third party. and the third largest party. martin schulz. but we may see in the east of germany the alternative for germany make it greater and more focused and we are currently predicting, but the balance of power books as it angela merkel is going to form a fourth term. the question is who will be her main coalition partner? and one of the things which i really saw the find quite exciting is that whoever the major coalition partner is usually tends to go for the office of the foreign secretary and the leader of the green party has been spoken about and i thought that would be quite an extraordinary development for germany. would be quite an extraordinary development for germanym would be quite an extraordinary development for germany. it would be quite a change. and, you have been out on the campaign trail and it seems almost extraordinary she is about to secure a fourth term. people tend to get, juno, start to have a backlash about that time. was there any discontent that you found? there was immense discontent in 2015 after the refugee crisis and the decision to admit a million refugees and it was probably the time when she was most shaky in power. various angela merkel kind of wave she stuck to her guns but it didn't happen again and she made sure she dealt with various deals to keep the refugee problem for love from germany but in all fairness people also just germany but in all fairness people alsojust quite warmed germany but in all fairness people also just quite warmed the angela merkel, they feel like, people from the world know this, they like stability, there are historic reasons for that, there's been through the major upheaval of unification, mutti merkel, money merkel is stoic and she has a bit of an edge to her, she sticks to her principles when she feels that it's right. and so i think also she has not had the content up against her and when martin schulz said she could be vice chancellor in her government, the country fell apart laughing. i think the afp and the mood in the east is very unpleasant, they were worse than i had expected. how did you feel about nigel farage going over there? very badly. i'm usually one of those people who doesn't mind people being a bit off at having their views and you know, you have a perfect right to exist and all of that but i think it crossed a bad line when he went up there and campaigned with the alternative fur deutschland, that was in many way a racist rally and you have to be very careful that this extreme sort of end of euroscepticism doesn't change to that. tony, do you agree he was wrong to address the afp?” that. tony, do you agree he was wrong to address the afp? i do and it makes life leavers and those of us it makes life leavers and those of us who brokered for breakfast or difficult as one of the leaders of the campaign associate himself with parties like that. gisela, the social democrats, labour's sister party, got close in the polls a few months ago so what has gone wrong? they did, and once we saw the return of members and we talked about fashion earlier, sort of re— energising the voter base, martin schulz scored in a sense because people didn't know him. he had been really much bigger in european politics and he was kind of a new fresh face. and he didn't manage to build on that. the other thing is something angela merkel has been able to do if she's been able to suffocate her coalition partners, she has been very clever in taking the credit for all these things the government has delivered and not allowing the social democrats to carve out a basis of whether have achieved things and could sort of show how germany led by them would be better than one under merkel. toby, you mentioned brexit and a lot of people say we are almost waiting for the german elections to get out of the way and duncan smith has referred to money merkel said that we know what germany wants germany gets and do you think that negotiations could speed up after the 24th? it's possible but it depends on who she enters into the coalition with. if it's the ftp, the ftp leader is reasonably sympathetic to britain, has counselled, not punishing britain for electing to leave the european union to think it would be good news from the brexit negotiation point of view. gisela, a lot of people have a very different view. those of expected triumphant angela merkel to rescue the british polls from the fire are living in the fa ntasyland, the polls from the fire are living in the fantasyland, the british have inhabited in lastjune's brexit vote. what did you make about? well, let's deconstruct this statement. rajesh hopes that angela merkel would ever come to their rescue didn't amount to anything when they —— when david cameron thought she would be the great saviour in negotiations and nor now. angela merkel will defend german interest in as german interest depend on good trading relationships, ithink in as german interest depend on good trading relationships, i think we will have these negotiations but also there will be a big battle in terms of the european union and fiscal transfers which angela merkel will have to hold the line. so i think the best thing that can happen for all of us is wants the government is there and becomes realistic it is in both in stress to get a settlement gisela, thank you. now the big event in stress books this week was the annual state of the union address from european commission presidentjean—claude yorker. in an upbeat speech, he said the president had in it window of opportunity and should seize the chance to catch the wind in its sales over the coming years. —— junker. there was only one mention of brexit. he accepted the uk's fruit to leave was regrettable but said brexit isn't everything. and that britain would regret it also. 0n trade, he said the eu should open talks with australia and new zealand with an aim to agree deals by late 2019. 0ther aim to agree deals by late 2019. other economic agreements with mexico and south america were also in the pipeline. he suggested a full european defence union should be created over the next decade. and that the requirement for unanimous votes on foreign policy should be ended to allow for quick decision—making. the schengen area, the passport free travel zone could also be extended to bulgaria, romania, and eventually croatia. but presidentjunker ruled out turkey joining the eu for the foreseeable future, condemning the detention of journalist by president over one's regime. he did however call for the creation of some eu jobs new structural reform could be created over member states and he suggested his own post as president of the european commission should be merged with the presidency of the european council. he said europe would be easier to understand if one captain was steering the ship. here with us now to discuss this further are the meps who were there to hear presidentjunker‘s speech. gerard batten and richard corbett. thank you both forjoining me. let's start by asking you both what did you make of the speech? it was very upbeat, as you said. a reminder that the rest of europe hasn't focused entirely on brexit. i have other things to worry about, other ideas, other proposals on the table. he got loads of ideas on the table of course, the commission of the proposals which is the trouble, they come up with ideas that they don't decide, if elected governments legislation also elected meps to decide but that's the role of the commission, to come up with ideas. the key thing is the mood there was that despite brexit, the rest of europe is moving on. i suspect you disagree. he exceeded my expectations because what he did was laid out before integrationist programmes, politics, economics, military, he said exactly where the eu is going to go and nothing all that has been on hold for a while by the referendum is going through. he laid it all out, this is precisely where the eu has always intended to go and it is now full steam ahead. he referred to the 27 country members, not 28, so he's already counted us which is good from our point of view. what people should really understand is if we are invited to remain a year ago this would now be our agenda and our fate because that would have been taken as an endorsement to move ahead with all of these projects. we are well out of it. is there some truth in that, richard? out of it. is there some truth in that, richard ? you out of it. is there some truth in that, richard? you campaigned to remain but do you supportjunker‘s programme? put up a lot of ideas, some of which have been around for yea rs some of which have been around for years and will not get anywhere because it needs the member states to agree. so we would have had a veto. yes, we would have a veto if we remained and if we had gone ahead with leaving. one of the things david cameron agreed to give up in return for some pretty meagre concessions during his deal was veto over closer integration within the eurozone, so we wouldn't have been able to veto the eurozone. no, in or out we cannot stop other countries integrating, should they so choose. 0ne integrating, should they so choose. one thing he said which was significant is that the european single currency is the currency of the union which is what it says in the union which is what it says in the treaty and that the other countries would now be actively encouraged tojoin, countries would now be actively encouraged to join, he countries would now be actively encouraged tojoin, he is setting up a eurocurrency agency and want to get the rest of them... a eurocurrency agency and want to get the rest of them. .. referring to the fact written has a treaty. that is why. .. the fact written has a treaty. that is why... was that a real suggestion britain would have had twojoin is why... was that a real suggestion britain would have had two join the euro ‘s state? britain would have had two join the euro 's state? if we had voted to remain, it would have been taken as a signal that we accept the eu as it isn't where is going. we would have ended up with more integration? isn't where is going. we would have ended up with more integration7m says the euro is the currency of the union in the treaty. so vince cable has been pretty critical over junker, he said he is in the wrong place, he doesn't do any favour for british pro— europeans, a bad choice for the particularjob, the present and extreme federalist vision. while it's true if you take same view or the seine misunderstanding of what the seine misunderstanding of what the commission says is what happens. only to come up with ideas and proposals but it doesn't decide. you are saying it isn't that powerful? it is always cajoling them along but it isn't theirjob. vince cable said this week of a brief interview for the economist radio where he says angela merkel should have done more to help david cameron in the negotiations and it's, you know, it's not enough just the negotiations and it's, you know, it's not enoughjust the sort of negotiations and it's, you know, it's not enough just the sort of say sad face, you know, if you ask anyone in german government or in brussels how they feel they say they are sad and they don't care but it is not policy, it is a rictus and a reaction to britain leaving at whether angela merkel will be there for a good couple of years and her successors and those in brussels, junker doesn't really like to engage in this argument, we will have to think about how to engage with britain but the fact that you are not in the eu or eurozone, this is a large economy on your's doorstep and important in many ways an oddity we've begun to hear a great argument yet for brussels or indeed from berlin on how it wants to deal with press brexit britain. even france and germany would like to see some movement on migration. is there a possibility that the uk could have had a cross europe agreement on free movement? you are not meant free movement. what jean—claude juncker has said, not meant free movement. what jean—claudejuncker has said, and this has been said in parliament by many people, we need to solve the illegal immigration problem by making it legal. they want to have more legal writs to migration. if you allow more people in, they are not actually illegal, so it is not a problem in their view. so i think there is some conflict there. five out of seven in parliament agreed withjean—claude out of seven in parliament agreed with jean—claude juncker. it was only ukip, the efdd group, sorry, that had a problem with us. this has been proposed many times over the yea rs, been proposed many times over the years, and these things generally happen. they take years, but they are in lamented eventually. vince cable makes a good point. who knew that you would agree? laughter. all the things jean—claude juncker has said here have been useful. particularly for those petitioning for a second eu referendum. particularly for those petitioning fora second eu referendum. if particularly for those petitioning for a second eu referendum. if there is to be one, ifjean—claude juncker said big babies, the leave campaign we re said big babies, the leave campaign were properly win by a bigger margin. although others would say that we were in a two track britain before, and we were on the wrong side of the federalist argument. britain and others cannot be obliged tojoin these things britain and others cannot be obliged to join these things against their will. it remains a british choice if they want to join the euro. the idea ofa they want to join the euro. the idea of a european army has been around for donkey's years, and it has never been agreed on. jean-claude juncker is not popular in the uk, particularly. is it right for him to say that people will not like the results ? say that people will not like the results? i have people writing to me and saying that i voted to leave, but not for brexit at any cost. we we re but not for brexit at any cost. we were told it would not cost anything. we were told it would save anything. we were told it would save a large number. have you met people like that? i have been looking for you do, and people have been saying that now that they sought what jean—claude juncker has is a, they are sorry that they voted remain. summit in brussels asked what the biggest threat is to the european union, and he said many! all he is doing is telling the truth. -- somebody in brussels. we will have many more debates on this to come. friends four, germany milk. no, this is not time for the european championship. these are some of the seats being discussed as a result of brexit. —— germany nil. a second idea has been discussed, using 51 of the freed up seats to create a transnational list of candidates. adam fleming has been finding out more in strasbourg. the uk's exit from the eu will have an impact in the henley cycle of the european parliament. —— hemicycle. this portuguese mep was asked what to do with the life—size versions of these. how will they look differently after brexit? the department is now 751. it will have 700 seats in the end. —— look different. we will use a part of the 73 seats of the uk. we will use 22 for a new allocation of seats, because the current situation is unfairfora number of because the current situation is unfair for a number of states. because the current situation is unfair for a number of statesm means france will get four new seats. hungry will get none, and jamil reddy has the most allowed under eu law. but others want to see a better reflection of population changes. —— hungary. —— germany has the most allowed. this is where the sinn fein meps is it, anything that the republic of ireland should be given more seats to represent people in northern ireland that they believe should be of the vote in the european elections. we believe there should be three meps enacted from the north. so would notjust the 13 seats for the south of ireland, it would be an additional two. if the allocation went through. but it would also be another three on top of that. it is reasonable that we would make that case because of the fa ct would make that case because of the fact that as eu citizens, we have got rights that are absolute. and the french president emmanuel macron has started a new argument by supporting an old proposal: international cross—border constituencies where people vote as european. i think it will make us more european, bringing the best of european level, rather than having separate national debates. i think it would be a good step forward, towards a more european democracy. if you are elected on a transnational list, who is your electorate? to whom you responsible? to whom are you accountable? how can your voters identify with you. yes, it is all immensely technical, but it is all immensely technical, but it has accessed some here for decades. and there is still some way to go. and a port —— a report is the amended and then voted upon. it is exhausting. can i sit in one of the seats, please? adam fleming reporting. next week, theresa may will go to florence to make a speech that has already been talked up as a political game changer in the brexit negotiations. downing street is staying tight—lipped about the content staying tight—lipped about the co nte nt of staying tight—lipped about the content of the speech, but that has not stopped other tongues wagging in westminster. indeed, it is going to be the chat of the week. so let me ask my guest what tone she should be looking to strike? i think she should be looking to strike a statesman—like tone. i think she needs not to be belligerent but apa glenshee is a rugby freight and not responding in kind to the sorts of language we have seen from people likejean—claude language we have seen from people like jean—claude juncker and so forth. —— belligerent but she needs to appear that she is rising above the fray. we heard from brussels that this intervention should delay the next age of negotiations, which suggests something pretty significant is coming. it could be selling significant coming. and around the german election and their timing. david davis and others have advised that she needs to put a marker down. whatever you say about jean—claude juncker, a lot of this policy is driven from berlin. if angela merkel gets up, newly elected, mandate behind her, and systematic and seal off an avenue for the systematic and seal off an avenue forthe uk, systematic and seal off an avenue for the uk, that would be unfortunate. i think she is getting a lot of pressure around the cabinet table not to bid belligerent —— not to seem belligerent, and not to use a soft tone, but to sound confident about what you want. one of the things that went well for david cameron is that he was less confident in the negotiations. it is going to be a little rock 'n' roll. it was never going to be as easy as leave claim. but this could be a lazarus revival for her after a terrible election. she is in florence, but she will be thinking about competing forces back here in westminster. there are suggestions he shi —— she is going to have a difficult time at home. she is not there to have a very easy time. what you think of florence? number ten is saying this is because of our deep historic trade ties. giving that is right? it is a difficult analogy. a lot of people are going to florence, if you end up with the new renaissance, well, it is go better than might have been predicted. possibly better than in brussels. than might have been predicted. possibly better than in brusselslj think possibly better than in brussels.” think this is an opportunity to set out a very clear line that the whole cabinet is united behind, and we then stick to as far as it possibly can until we leave in march 2000 and 19. one of the potential political wins here is to distinguish the position from a messier noisier to get labour position. the latest position is a mess. the prime needs to be very clear. thank you very much real time. that is all for. —— much real time. that is all for. —— much for your time. —— that is all for now. hello there. the second half of the weekend should bring us a decent day across most parts of the country. it could be quite a chilly start to the day on sunday morning, some mistiness around. later on, sunshine and a few showers, but not as many showers as on saturday and not as heavy as they were, either. low pressure still sitting to the east of the uk. higher pressure, though, moving in from the south—west from the atlantic. that leaves us with a bit of a cool northerly breeze, particularly for eastern scotland and north—east england too. through sunday morning, most of the showers will be concentrated across southern england. across much of the rest of the country, quieter. one or two heavy showers towards the channel isles. there could be a rumble of thunder. inland, most places dry, with clear spells. one or two patches of mist first thing too across england and wales. perhaps the chance of an isolated shower for north—east england. but for much of northern ireland and scotland, a dry and bright start. but certainly a chilly morning, although things will warm up relatively quickly once the sun gets going. still a cool breeze across parts of eastern scotland and north—east england, which could drive in a few isolated showers. most places staying dry for a good part of the day. but during sunday afternoon, a rash of showers developing. they will be hit and miss, so for many parts of the country, you will avoid the showers altogether, particularly the further north and west you are. but you could see one or two showers towards the east. if you do catch one, it should pass through relatively quickly. the breeze will continue of the north sea, and that will feed some showers across eastern england towards east anglia. first thing monday morning, away from the east coast, it will be chilly. in the countryside, wheezy temperatures a degree above freezing. —— we see. true monday, low pressure to the east of the uk. high pressure in the west, leaving us again without northerly breeze. that breeze will continue to be showers across eastern scotland and england. most other parts of the country should avoid most of the showers, although there will be a few cropping up in there will be a few cropping up in the afternoon. with the light winds and the shelter, in a sunny spots, it could feel nicer at 17—18 degrees. tuesday and wednesday, a little rain on the way through the middle of the week. temperatures will be on the rise. goodbye for now. hello, this is breakfast, with steph mcgovern and roger johnson. police investigating the london tube bombing are continuing to question an 18—year—old man who was arrested in dover yesterday. officers say they are following numerous lines of inquiry, and haven't ruled out further arrests. the arrested man lived in a house behind me here at sunbury—on—thames, in surrey. it was raided by police yesterday. their investigation continues. good morning, it is sunday 17 september. also ahead: the m5 remains closed, after a crash yesterday left four people dead and a mother and two children seriously injured.

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