Replaced the come on the responsible for concave in the northeast. On monday it can see that Russian Troops were making games along the border. There in the fonts deeper into the regions as prompted phase among western allies of a major assault on how to cave. Well, the city is ukraine, 2nd largest, located just further detail on this is south of the russian border when rusher invited in 2022. Its sold just crossed into the hockey region. Months later, the ukranian counter offensive full Russian Troops to retreat. But selling and bombardment has continued. Now the russians a back can say theyve taken 9 villages in the matter of days. Is that your crime in ami on the back foot while trying to defend a 1000 kilometer from line . Cause a delay in us moved to a proved to be a turning point in the well, well discuss these questions on more without guessing just a moment. But 1st, this report from imaging came to the russian army is advancing ne, in ukraine at its false this pace in more than 2 years since friday, it says, troops of taken knowing villages in the call, key region on nevada. According to the gulf, now im moving full size and people a big move to safety. Cool. But the if you will with up im finding this taking place 500 maces from my house. The vault to river is 500 meters away from my house, and the russians are on the other side. You kind of in tanks rolling suits and roll out. There was shouting all the Time Military orders, and you can hear people being captured. Shells are flying constantly, dying not what does this mans village both chance is under ukrainian or russian control is disputed. Ukrainian, omi says its fighting back. Rocher was suffering heavy doses with around 100 of it, so just killed. The president concedes the situation is difficult. Daniel national actually is not the most of the we need to inflict as many losses on the Occupying Forces as possible on the conditions on the outskirts of the city of, of chance are extremely challenging. The cities under constant russian font and our military launching council tax on he added conditions a similarly, the internet says russian strategy could be to stretch ukrainian troops sitting on the ground across the border in russia. Recording showing on belgrade killed several people that the weekend i mean, it sounds good for me to use this and we provided 1st aid and evacuated over people from the building. The people having breakdowns that was panic is syria, or is your calling the grandmothers warning most go. President Vladimir Putin is re shuffling his cabinet. So a long time ally, so guy show you to us defense minister as ive seen, the so called special minute trio peroration ukraine. Now had the National Security council. Hes expected to be replaced by andre peluso, a former deputy Prime Minister and economist, suggesting the president is looking to focus on the defense ministries finances. But ukraines biggest concern is the late to supply of us weapons. Without it, soldiers will be all right, mind and ive gone vulnerable to the russian ponces image and kinda out 0 the inside story, the light spring on gas into the show now have joining us from odessa ukraine. Honda show us the Security StudiesProgram Director do training in prison, a Foreign Policy and security think tank in vienna. Roger hilton is a defense and security fellow at the globe psych, a global thing tank focusing on security and sustainability and in moscow. Capital feldman, however, as an independent Russian Defense and ministry analysts good to have you with us. Let me start with how we know the situation is serious right now and how the case, how serious is it, is called a cave on the verge of fully if we speak about the siege of car to you, we are very far not close to that. Weve been before involved to the following. You need to understand that the city of more than one medium, not the same as the small villagers or tall thatd be under the fire before color. Were definitely that is the new front line so far. So wed be in the aptitude even the last 6 months is, but that is the new developments because the new Russian Forces came with the why attack i will uh, probably characterize it as so. So in this case, it is just take you to of a lot of all the Defense Forces of the premium, the armed forces from the east, the prob, uh, to the northern prob. So in these case, we just have the new hauled support. And the a longer prompt line that we had, even before people do agree with that. How is russia pretty far from capturing the entire region, let alone how to give city of 1000000 people. As kind of pointed out of the Russian Forces across the border, they have been in this part of our blast in 22, then the retreat give them the front line. If the front line it was the border. So there was not much troop separation on the premium side. And so the russians moved in again, are probing. Do you pray in defenses of the, for this right now, this kind of mo bile skirmishes happening. They are several to wal mart. Theres from the cranium border. No, this is not very close to practice city. So this is kind of, uh, uh, we come through bateau situation may be rush or throwing more forces and try to push seriously. But right now its a crime this up to free crime operation on the, on the border. Maybe the city of board sounds good. Russia says its already there. Youre creating a dispute at the city as for and thats a small town on the border. So right now its not yet developing into a major back the size of that, but then show roger. One thing i think everybody agrees in is that the time has changed. What is as russia down in order to change the situation around in places like hotkeys or, i think ive been an issue in the sense that youre insinuating that russia is taking the drive on this. I mean, the conflict between russia and new credit is so much more than just the battlefield in the east. And while the last couple of days of rush had been able to occupy 9 or 10 villages and it is nowhere near has the mine power to theoretically take car key. There has been so much else going on about successes of ukraine where i think the media is focusing too much on this one spot right here. Just last thursday, you credit for all the is a not driven by the statements then of ukraine. It officials themselves who sides the situation is very difficult and hard key. They seem to indicate that you know, they are on the back for that. Absolutely. I am totally not. I mean, that is a tough as long as the demo at the moment of north and the big high to repossess forces. But if this is the best that russia has been able to put together over the last 6 months when ukraine is audience low, and its actually quite an inspiring position right now, thats not to say the heavy loss of the previous team. But given the spring, the advantage that russia, i wouldnt expect them to do much better than where they are right now. Okay, let me bring in pavel for your perspective on that to all the advances in gains by russia actually over blown low russia is pushing forward really place is not going to be talked about person that doing boss with moderate success. Lets do it with success. Now theres hope that in moscow that these pushes the venture with we to a snap and morale of ukrainian motor tree Ukrainian Society and the premium from the line will begin to collapse. Oh dear, even the so right, that was such a disaster as for you. Great. And then the west scenario. Well, bush should be the premiums and the over there in the western allies seek some kind of bridge pro well with the russia to stop the slow but to spread the rushing of bands and get some crime derossis prior swords on the path of fuel bass. More or less on the present wine and try. I do want to pick up later on the what this means for the prospect of diplomacy and talks about before we go down that road. Lets take it back to honda and honda. What impact is the russian advance and how to keep actually having at this moment, all Ukrainian Forces being over stretched over and increasingly long frontline, you know, we probably need to make lots tab uh behind um to understand the moment why these comments are funds uh, happening right now, the gas flow ross, or it is the very narrow timing when the can, yvonne so uh, before your payment received all those weapons that being delayed by the us. And finally, the congress adopted a decision to the artillery. First of all, they are keeler immunization that your brain be missing for the last 6 months has started to ride to ukraine bloss, were expecting an approximately a month of 16 as blocked in june. The check initiative with immunization also stop delivery to russian understands the may is the best models when the b as to eula, um in circle. So ill munition compared to ukraine to the needs, to make a big push with all the forces before ukraine received a series back call. And in this case, i know were getting close to it. So i mean point is that what youre saying is, is this one way or another attorney point a to brush or make some big gains all the ukrainians will when they get americans supplies. Definitely do russia will not be able to take the big bank at least with what we see now with those forces economy and with those losses they have owned abroad. So it seems to, even from the tactics that they chose in the market region, that the big occupation of the New Territories is northwards. They are really searching for this traction booked to crazy on the courses. And that to me, before you grading on forces more difficult to start to counter offense as soon as they receive the nation. Yes, that can be one of the prime or all goals, but also demonstration that they can go for the mood, the town that theyve been trying to reach you by phone. My mom says and to talk to just destroy the child. So you kind of name it as a normal occupation, but they also need to the president ial elections to the new team, old new team that got. And now the demonstration of the certain successes because the previous months was they werent below till fall failures inc crania. And we know that quite me is very symbolic for russia still the needed to show or k, you are charging cost in premium. We will do it to where you feel vulnerable, and thats appears to be the target bridge. And roger is the some concern. However, you frame this one as whether its over blown by the media not is the concern of, of the psychological impacts of seeing images. Once again, what appears to be Russian Troops. Re taking parts of the hockey region. People having to flee, being boss down to the homes and pulled up in all the places in no way, am i trying to diminish the impact, the villagers who have had to leave and sort of a really let me know all of this. But were over 800 days into this war. Now everybody, i just seen that just because theres been this temporary seizure disability uh, the resting forces have had to come and rescue people and take them away to me. But thats gonna have this gene changing effect on the route of the troops. I just dont buy it and you know, position the massive them around. That will be coming to you bring in the forms of both the largest british a package and the american a package. Most surely sort of carry them over. It is very tough moment. So im not buying that. You know, just because of these very type images and of course the law says ukrainian life. I dont think its gonna sort of be such a huge detriment to the performance involved in the one a puzzle. What is the russian aim then . Im sure youve heard the comments of our other guests as well as others have said. Russia hasnt amassed enough troops to take how to keep in its entirety, those russia in your reading one to take how to keep as a whole simply to spread out those ukrainian lines. Oh hello. Its in the military practice to pro lee and then me, why do find we places for the top or to minute these and then split these opportunities up to now be offensive for me on the for region is not major by the number of troops actually involved there are Russian Reserve has to be fine lines that should reinforce maybe they will do so maybe not. Maybe that will be right here. You pressure will try advancing another place is to seeking out a weak spots in the cranium defenses. You bring in morale, because the main russian messages that russia is unbeatable, that the printing and resistance is futile of the try there. They may fight, but they cannot basically just brush it because its bigger. It has more men, more it go ahead, maam jim, a mar shows the to be better for the agree that for the west to find some kind of a diplomatic solution that would uh, if not, we utilize the 3. Uh uh, uh, how do you find the present situation . I make it or something to some kind of may be ceasefire for some people. Just listen to that. Then im wondering, do you think the, the russian minute free thinking buys into the argument that russia sees a window of opportunity that is closing before major weston supplies kicking it was, there was such a rush. Im a prime, this, the bloggers are writing about that the pressure has a window of opportunity. You know, its not, theyre not talking about several months, but maybe a couple of years. Why the west, the efforts to increase defense production really begin to pay off. Maybe in a year, year and a half in when youre up in north america, theyll be getting mass. So were producing on some conventional weapons and russia will be in serious situation. Because mashing bath, is it not an easy task at all sense . Russian a, g, b, b is a 100 times less than b is a sum of the g d b. That will be a ramstein ukrainian allies. So thats us the brush up, find the way to describe the way in the comedy year a year and a half because if about brags on red, rushed in as a war of attrition. Russia will be at a very serious disadvantage. How that, how much concern is that, that these kinds of operations and advances by Russian Forces could threaten ukrainian supply lines in places like just the v off a just so youre already is and not the small town. And the question these that ukraine says that the bottom base word tried to diversify the logistics. Because we perfectly on the student that the long legs of logistics or the concentration jobs on one or 2 directions will definitely become the ultimate goal of the rushing. The text thats just the classics. Thats why you see that there are a lot of the different small lags. Im very weak delivery of the supply. Thats why the last months theyve been to many attacks against the Railway System because the railway is definitely quite a well developed and several b railway. Yeah. Ill know the stations being attacked by the russian me files im. That is happening most only around the trusted yard because there is over the easy, its deliberate in terms of necessity was the other means of transportation. But youll also see these attacks in the west time ukraine. They are coming predominantly either against the Energy System or against the Railway System. And the same for oh, thats a lot of going to the board because that is the idea that the supplies are happening also, or through the boards for these uh from romania to your brain by loud to all of these. So all attacks against logistics, b, b, y, unexpected. And thats why you have as many as possible, the rules and chains of transportation and logistics to the east. I wonder if we take the question now to roger of how will the west react to whats going on. Weve heard statements from some of the west and leaders like that of the united kingdom, the, the font, the secretary talk about how serious the situation and critical moment it is. Will that translate . Do you think into a change of policy . Every conflict, regardless of what it is, has moments ive been down and right now, the premiums are down, but every message that is being sent out now says were going to stick with you printing wireless at a low point and things will get better. You know, just like the packages that cost, for instance, there is no wrong trend, you know, uh, in europe at this point from the, the, the seizure of russian frozen assets, which is super important. But the re bought that was passed. So i dont see any reason to think that just because of this moment happening in bar, keep that policy makers. Why dont we say we need to force a piece . Uh, are you french . I most importantly you have very low members of the european union. The politics pull in the check president peter call farmer, chairman of the nato military committee. This is not going to be a one on the decision made by one or 2 states french. And i know my cause been very forthcoming now about, you know, the, the need for ukraine went on this. So again, i am not of the position that just because you, you know, your credit is in the dark right now. That it was that policy makers all of that, and then any time soon i all right, ive always had a change of gone so to speak, and the Russian Defense ministry. What does that tell us . Do you think . What can we read into that when it comes to russian minutes . We thinking going forward, the kremlin, says a month, it is kind of revolutionary for rush at this never happened before. For a civilian economist and Economic Advisor administered to be big problem defense minister without the united states. There was robert amara to transform the dent again the time, also war and just now but not in russia unless it was made. Thats why the crime and also confirms. Ready this is a war of attrition. Im. Its dependent on their economy. Russia is mobilizing you to come out my defense potential. The west is doing the same, but of course a rush is already up to 7 percent of g. D b defense spending the lesser spending, of course, in percentage terms, much less. But the west has much margie, theyd be a 100 times more. So the commer this, it further this, so new defense for us to rebuild stuff is going to be boxed issues. Main task is to mobilize for the Rushing Defense industry. Mostly the defense in the industry work better with industry is also an economist. That means he speaks the same language as the liberal part of the economic part of the fortunes government. So he can mobilize them to, to put all the effort to match the western mobilization of resources with russia, mobilization and demonstrate to the west that russia cannot be defeated. The view all the way forwards is a diplomatic solution thats, thats quite a challenge. Hes got ahead of him. Im wondering. So yes, thats a, a shift in thinking. Some was going on on the russian side. Hannah, is there a shift in ukrainian tactics going on . The last few months weve seen increasing a tax on targets inside russia. And yesterday of coal, so weve seen a tax on what the russians have reported as civilian buildings like that of bell gold, where a number of civilians, russia said were killed. I would side from the very end because even the Russian Media adopted significantly. Because uh they were no attack against the builder applied to these, and thats built inc was definitely similar to the Ukranian Armed forces. Us attack, where were definitely your right. The last months Ukrainian Armed forces are better to say to Security Services begins and supplied attacks in russia. But all of them happening, you know, to, against the military, all jets that can be either enterprises producing drugs, for example, of some equipment for the military. But predominantly the uh, um the uh, plans uh for Oil Refineries. Why the reason is very simple. We, im not targeting the uh, oil itself, but only the Oil Refineries thats from wherever i should get upset. Quite a significant income for the state budgets as the budget means military budget. Considering the data the comics on shows 1st will be energy sanctions. If youre not so successful because india and china were eager to buy the discounts at the Russian Energy sources. So that became the message called 2 limits, the russian even call. And the 2nd is not going to be because the armed forces needs, uh, any type of dispatch will be more than an army kind of be without it. So the problems with the, uh, refined, uh, uh, patrol of the latrete sides. It means that the armed forces will also have the problems with supply. So in this case, we really uh, sort the resolve not with the prices of the oil and the World Markets as this time economy squared freight bought with the possibilities of brush or to export the Energy Resources or, but its a refined Energy Resources of the world. Market raja, at the end of the day when you, when you read the situation, have a much, much more west in a comes in. However much more targeting the raise of the Russian Energy facilities. Is ukraine handicapped by lack of manpower . Well, i mean, its a, its a very complicated question and i think kind of will agree that you know, in about a months time or maybe 6 weeks, this new conscription line, this new construction all will come into effect. I mean, well be able to sort of generate more man power and some of the european nations are working with the pressure to bring back the premium shoulders for defining of course demand power is one sided by that. But the issue with that, like, by doing this is sort of by pushing you print to make a piece with the print its, thats an unbelievably dangerous precedent. Not just in europe or china. I retired politics that is really dominating the landscape right now. So of course, when the foreseeable future, your training will have to be above and beyond, in terms of its performance. If it is kind of talking me 9 of troops, but i still think the will to fight, is there a new a package will be coming on . And in any circumstance, april the ukraine will decide when they want to make peace with russia, not by anybody else. All right, let me bring in tampa. Leslie, weve got a couple of minutes left. Pavel is part of the russian advances that were seeing to try and count to the increasing attacks that were seeing on russian territory. Do the advances in places like how to keep and elsewhere, i mean, in the russian thinking, the possibility of, of less attacks on russian territory. I know how to pointed out that he doesnt believe in the ukraine is having to officially taken responsibility for what happened at that civilian building and in belgrade. But russian officials have spoken about it as or framed as a rush as a training, an attack rather low use. The russian president vladimir both in for said that we should just tabulate sure. Im the buffers um on the premium side of the more there. So the brain could not read targets inside russia. Its, its, uh, maybe the, the person to talk to over the border is to establish some kind of such buffer zone. But its not, wow, its easy to to decide where thats border and with that zone and, and watch russian then what stop russia. And of course, your brand has being demonstrated its capability to fit targets while the international, the most powerful right by the county. Just small tech nicole in an era of drones and rockets, you know, what is it not present to you . Straight to the abilities the bag way beyond the whole the more of this. So that means the where should that border buffer zone then on the approach border, i dont know. So i be good, but such a good week to push the ukrainians in a position where they can use our storage ahead brushing their trim may be but thats kind of be a slippery slope, i would say. But pushing in general when you have the advantages that make sense. So thats what the rest of may, what youre going to do and the pride to see whats going to come of age. Oh, this is how you know, a recon through power. A refund is made and then your, this is classical stuff, right . All right, im afraid were out of time. So were going to have to find called gas for the contributions kind of show us roger hilton and purple falcon. How . Im thank you to 14, you can see the show again. Any time by visiting our website. Ill just 0. Dont com. And for further discussion head over to our facebook page, thats facebook dot com forward slash a j inside story. Can also join the conversation on x l. A handle that is at a j inside story. From me, sammys i that and the whole team here for now, lets go by the theres a deliberate mission of posting in humanity, in western, and it needs to be questioned. This is not the time to, to mr. Kind of way. Examining the effect that News Coverage can have on democracies everywhere here at the listing the best. The challenges here with, if you will see a duty in the grove using for p, use a cost to contribute to improving the lives of thousands of projects except the cost. And we strive to ensure it reaches its deserving recipients, visit the costs are requested. And remember, its a copier size, wealth, and increases sustenance costs on red, chris the the hello am dire in jordan into a lot of the top stories here. And ill just say era. Israel has stepped up. It strikes and garza getting more palestinians on the north to the south of the strip on tuesday. At least 8 palestinians were killed and is rarely striking a Residential Home in minnesota. Refugee camp in central garza, the palestinian Civil Defense is looking to become a victim. Some of the rubble, dozens of wounded palestinians have been rushed to the alex the hospital and get out by the United Nation staff member has been killed in an attack in east and the rough uh, this is the 1st international stuff casualty in gaza. United nation example, you just killed off the vehicle came on the file on monday. Another stock number was one