Color there, and welcome to the program on this policy. Okay. Now the war and ukraine has raged for the 2 years. Western allies, a boosting the support and the hope of turning the tide against russia. About direct intervention has always been off the table until now. French president emanuel not gone has now floated the idea of moving direct involved and perhaps even pushing boots on the ground. Could western powers ever unite behind a move like this . And how would russia we ask, what will speak to our panel and just a moment, but 1st concerned on a hand has this report. The european leaders gather in paris and a bit to display their solidarity with ukraine and more with russia. Western powers pledge further military supplies with french presents emmanuel macross hinted at more. You can see so to do to over you. There was no consensus today to put troops on the ground and the men of its official assumes and endorsed. But nothing should be excluded. We will do everything so that russia can not win this war. For many months, the conflict has largely been at a stalemate. Ukraine and struggled to secure any gains. Well, russia as claim to it, made in roads in the east ukraines president bought america landscape once more support from a cron suggestion of western boots on the ground as revealed divisions among the allies. Will at present mal chrome speak. He for his military and what he is or is not willing to do with, with his troops present, has been clear. He does not support us troops involved in this conflict in ukraine, and ill leave it as it is active, which on the ground is kind of whats on the ground, is not an option for the federal republic of germany. It cannot be an option and it will not be an option. Russia, as long framed the war as a struggle against the combined power of the west, the kremlin wars, the western troops to play in ukraine, a full scale war with nato could be unavoidable. It isnt in the interest of these countries and they should be mindful. In the case of sending troops, we would need to talk not about the probability, but about the inevitability of a direct conflict between nato and russia. The war and ukraine has rate for more than 2 years. Billions of dollars worth of western military support has so far failed to turn the tide against russia. Now, some western powers must consider whether putting the troops on the ground is a realistic option. Tends mountain elda 0 for inside story. The oh, thats not bringing, i guess into we have pieces all me as hes the executive director of the razor Democracy Initiative and brussels and, and jessica is a former principal spokespersons and nature. Shes currently a distinguished fellow at the Royal United Services institute. Im in london and we have Alexander Cox, and hes the founder of Global Political insights and provides political and Communications Advice to governments with expertise on russia and central asia. Its really great to have you all on inside story with us today. Thanks for your time. I want to start with, with the space or play on the ground as it is right now is about the some time to absolve is even senior minute freaking. Mom does that. Were, were in a bit of a stalemate between ukraine and russia, but it feels like in the last couple of weeks about this month or so, the russia has obtained the upper hand. Oh, why would you say about span . So can i think this is a very difficult moment on the front lines in ukraine. However, we should not forget that ukraine has maintained its sovereignty, which is exactly what russia has attacked. Ukraine has also managed to reclaim about a 50 percent of the territory occupied by russia and important. The ukraine has managed to, to set up the grain cory door going through the black sea so that it continues to exports. Its its brings to the rest of the world. So yes, this is a difficult time and 10 is going to be a difficult. Yeah. But the ukraine has shown that it can hold its own. Then thats why we have to continue supporting ukraine much foster. And heres the phrase difficult time, alexander, let me bring you in here because i wonder if the narrative is very different in moscow, especially with the last set of ideas, guy is russia feeling like its taking charge . And yes, they will be sitting about at the moment for several reasons. Well, 1st of all, as close, as you mentioned, its the successes on the buckled route. The 2nd reason is that the sanctions that are being put against russia not having the effect, the west, the want to the restroom because essentially it turned its economy into a war economy, which means its able to produce more military equipment. And that munition evaluate ukraine can produce and even the west can provide to ukraine, so they feel quite comfortable Going Forward with this with this full. And sadly, you have to say that the rest of the moment looks quite decisive, which is perhaps given the kremlin also a bit of confidence that were, were seeing the but some disparity in messaging within the european union. And of course the just recently macro and said that, uh, theyre open to having nato troops on the ground in ukraine than other members of the u. S. I. She said no the, were not looking at that. So there seems to be a bit of a division in the west right now, which i do think is given russia quite a bit of confidence Going Forward. I want to come back to some of those divisions and look at then in depths, but piece of just picking up on something that alexander said there in terms of the availability of weapons and artillery, ukrainian official senior ones have said that they wouldnt have had to have withdrawn from of the sky if they had enough artillery to defend it. So the delays that were seeing and tons of west and support arriving in cable in ukraine on the front lines. Thats costing territory its costing lives. Hows that going . Move a visa. Well indeed, this is a start study in congress so that we see it on the one hand rule, you know, the west is not able to overcome what essentially is a, you know, a dilemma of a collective action, a collective action problem where theres big threaten us Congress Ends on the try block the continued a to you credit in the present back on the same one thing while others are then rushing to say, no, theres going to be no boots on the bottom, which is like white rice. But its my question. Why rush and reassure putting that theres going to be no boots on the ground. This such a thing as strategic can be do with the russians, are using it all the way and europeans that simply not using it. And i just dont understand why even if they dont dentist and whats on the ground, leaving it as a matter of strategic can be used as a good policy. And on the other hand, we see that, you know, how rushed us. Uh, essentially 5th columns such as hungry and slow like you are actually, you know, making life difficult to difficult both in the you and, and they then when it comes to the consensus on the crate. And finally, the provision of weapons and the one hand you, once again you have this in decisive west europe is only now waking up to the potential reality. They may have to do with valid us security umbrella. And they have to sort of start directly producing much more weapons than they ever did. Theyve promised to create a certain amount, but theyre not delivering even the house. Well, hopefully by march well have 500000. But were not, you know, holding out right. On the other hand, russia is normally producing up to 2000000. 00 not to lose sales per year, especially the millions from the galleria. It stepped up and secure with the cooperation with iran. Once again, i think the west has to really wake up to the reality of whats happening and we will see further territorial losses by ukraine. If they dont want to let me ask you the question. The patient then has just posed you are sitting in brussels. Why the leaders in european capitals, one thing to you is strategic on be here with the is there a real fare as of further escalation . Look, the, the missions that nato had from the thoughts of, of, of this, of this crisis of rushes from next conviction of ukraine was on the one hand to continue supporting ukraine. Self defense with to the right that ukraine has under the United Nations job to it is defending its own territory sovereignty against an invasion, a non, for both invasion by russia. So actually, every un member has the obligation to support ukraines right of self defense. The other mission of that nature has the aim was to prevent escalation to natal, terry tree. And that this plan and because nato is a defensive alliance, nato does not want an even bigger conflict across europe. So that is, that has been the policy from the stop agreed by o allies, and i would dispute some of the, some of the points made by a, by on exams or in feature. I think we have actually seen unprecedented to unity, unprecedented support. Uh, from uh, from the stop, from both the United States, canada european allies and many others around the world. So the support that has been provided to ukraine has been unprecedented. The unity has been unprecedented. But of course, this is something about the National Governments have to work, work on every day. And we see, and that is a fact that russia is getting a lot of our munition, a lot of drones, lots of other support from fellow autocracies around the world, in particular, north korea and iran. So its absolutely key. But the democracy is also step up and that is in fact whats being happening of countries in, in nato, are investing much more in, in the defense then. Then they did the a couple of years ago, 18 out of such a long nato allies are investing around. So was either 2 or more then 2 percent of gdp on defense. They have been taking measure to increase the defense production to im initial production. But of course, its not fast enough, its just how the in democracy is to take the sort of decision. Then it isnt dictatorships thats also a 5. 0 one i know talking there about restrictions or constrains on on how much can be sent. It also feels like National Governments, as you mentioned, have been making individual decisions based on, on their own national interest. So germany, for instance, i know theyve been mulling or the, the idea of sending that taurus long range missiles thats been really contentious for them. They, if i recall correctly what were not very keen to send times until the us also sometimes the concerns clearly about escalation, germany doesnt ones a war with russia, but alexandra, nobodys ring about. Sure. I mean, wondering about the flow escalation. So weve seen initially, germany said they were going to organise and helmets, and then they sent tanks. Now this talk about long range missiles. How is the slo escalation in terms of the sophistication of weapons being sent to your grand . Hows that being viewed and mosca . As well, again, as i just mentioned before, it is viewed as a sort of weakness by the west. You see from the governments point of view of this war is essentially life with this. It is life for this for puts it in many ways. If you lose is this for uh well it will be major consequences for him on his machine. And therefore, the criminal is uh, uh, is ready to go all out. We dont see uh the same, lets say the same size of this uh from the west. And the more of the smaller trucks on the holidays going to be for the west uh to, to continue to provide that sort of support that the did provide the very beginning. And i do agree without the guess that initially they, the support was indeed substantial. But the more the trucks on the mall, i think there will be a, an unfortunate realization that ukraine will not be able to take back the lines. But russia, carly controls. Its not a popular narrative. Its one thats not being actively discussed in the, in the west a circles, but russia has a very deep and significant defensive lines in the 3rd year that has gained conquered so far on the ukraine will indeed struggle to give that back. They just to be. Busy to go, sir. Uh, alexandra, i just wanted to clarify something you said earlier in terms of what the west is sending to ukraine. Its been so suddenly, fox, we have seen an escalation in sophistication, right . So if roughly didnt view tanks as an escalation, will they view long range missiles as an escalation . Where does that end . Is then the line say its on the ground west and on the ground as well. I think the puts on the ground will be a significant the escalation, and thats what exactly what the from and said. Now, well the way of that red line is that its difficult to say. I think when the war initially started, the crime ended put forward. Many red lines which have been crossed by the west by now. And we, we havent really seen significant response from the quote from kind of in that regard. And nevertheless, i think by sending a long range missiles and so on. Again, it might help in the short them. But what, what does the rest do . Once these missiles run out, do the continue sending them indefinitely . There is, there is no, they know that it is simply no possibility or time that is. So i think the rush, it would feel that in a long time, they have that behind a piece. There is a really want to come in the space, jump in a good thing, nato allies against the whole 7. The whole g 7 has made clear that they will continue to support ukraine for as long as it takes and present my call actually sends and whatever it takes. And i think thats a very Important Message because for russia, yeah, maybe it is, is essential. So i put in, but this is a war of choice. Thats russia and putting himself launched, they will not attract. This is a war of aggression. Its in the legal world oppression. So its absolutely important that we continue to support that ukraine because its defending its independence ended. So this us the territorial integrity and these are fun. So principles. So i dont agree that we will be running delta by munition. Actually, what youre seeing is a continual ramping up of the defense capabilities of industrial capabilities. Nato has a Defense Industrial action plan, which is launched last year. There are contracts a being made to continuously for more, 155 millimeter munition, for patriot missiles. And these are both to defend nato allies, but also to continue to support your print. Im really not at all, sir. Im here now that the from so saying that theyre not open to buying outside of europe potentially, which opens up a huge, huge market piece. Right, i know youve been wanting to, to jump in for a while, please, please. Yeah, i just wanted to say what were talking about escalation and put this red line is i think its, theyve already thrown everything they have as you create short of a Nuclear Weapons, they blown out for a couple of cold water. Them. They put that rise to billions of bite to discriminate. Shelly, so really boils down to this logic that if you have Nuclear Weapons, then the old other countries have to just basically see whatever territory the Nuclear Power uh the country wants. And that is actually a, uh and then you know what it comes to. Um, you know, and thats the international security. And you know, once again, were not talking about scaling down, you know, expectations of ukrainians to be turned through. Its 1991 borders. I will tell you one thing, its not the official policy yet, but i think there was realization in ukraine. Its not going to happen any time soon just to keep the territory just to keep you clean sovereignty. At this point, we require ratcheted, you know, significant lead crease, the levels of support and production of weapons. Vladimir wouldnt have said just in december that he remains true to his goal of doing that certification demo to is ation of ukraine. Its neutral status. You mentioned me, the former president has said that you will be of by rights should be a russian see, a desk, i should be a russian see, you have to really listen to what these folks are say in their telegraph, jones, and cetera they have not given up on their mexico goal, ive actually seen you play disappear either as a sovereign state. I want to take a quick look at this point, the contributions that weve been seeing from, from different countries. Obviously, western powers is weve been talking about have been heavy, supporting, new kinds worth it. Lets look at some of those numbers. Now, key was received around 270000000000. 00 worth of a, including military financial and humanitarian support. The biggest diana is the United States thats given moving 75000000000. 00 over the past 2 years. And a new aid package as weve been talking about was around 60000000000. 00 is the currency sold in us congress. Westinghouse have also given you can advanced weaponry, including tank spice of jets, and anti aircraft weapons looking at your pin contributions, germany. That was what more than 19000000000. 00 with u. K. 9. 8000000000 fronts. I was interested to see is 686000000. So its pretty bold of back on to talk about needing to do more when vince that fall behind and contributions isnt a dont wanna as well. According to the keela institute, which is tracking the, the, the public contributions because of course, some of the contributions may not always be public. Indeed, the frost is in 14th place. Also a indeed, as you said, to the United States, germany, which is the biggest european contribute to the u. K. Problem. Many, many of us. Um, so everybody is, is contributing but so i fully agree that Everybody Needs to do more because this is an existential moment. But ukraine, but also for those around the world of that dont want to see an imperial project. That is what russia actually has as a, as pizza was saying that this is about destroying the sovereignty. And territory integrity annihilating a whole country, denying the identity of a whole people. This is an imperial project, which if it succeeds, will send the wrong message to other big countries around the world that to think that they can use force to achieve that goal. Well, let me then turn this back to alexandria because were talking about ramping up support here from western allies over a relatively long period of time. It seems from my interview is alexandra with senior russian officials. It sounds like moscow already feels that its at pool with nate to the whole of nature. What difference would would boots on the ground, for example made of if they already things that there it will with the west as well. I think um, how many puts on the ground or would it just be a significant escalation . Because if, if um, if something lady was saying thats among the nato soldiers, that does