80000 daily infections over the past week. So 35000000 people not vaccinated. And let me be absolutely clear. We have in hand all the vaccines we need to get every american fully vaccinated, including the booster shot. So theres no excuse, no excuse for anyone been on vaccinated. This continues to be a pandemic of the unvaccinated. So we got to make more progress that you guys record more than 200000 daily cry lavarez cases for the 1st time. Prime minister Boris Johnson says therell be no new restrictions for now, but warned of challenging weeks ahead. You joe has become the 2nd chinese city to be put into a total lockdown off to reports of new current of ours cases. Restrictions are similar to those impose for the past 2 weeks in the Industrial Hub of shyanne, south koreas military says the north has fired an unidentified projectile launch happened of north koreas east coast last week, north Korean Leader kim jong and vowed to continue building up his countrys military capabilities. A court in canada has ordered iran to pay 84000000. 00 to the families of those killed in the downing of a plane in 2020. Rollins military shot down a ukrainian passenger plane, killing all 176 people on board. Many of those on board were canadian citizens or hat residency in canada. Rons ad offenses had been on high loads days off to the u. S. Assassinated, irans top general cast some silly money. The main suspect in the killing of haitian president , juvenile, noisy, has appeared in u. S. Federal court for the 1st time. 43 old former Colombian Military officer. Mario policies was ex dice ed from panama. Ah, how would the military ensued on deal would be addressed . The resignation of the Prime Minister and growing public anger of throwing the country further into uncertainty. Put a new power sharing deal be the way out. This is inside store. Ah. Hello, welcome to the program. Im kim vanelle. Sudan is again in political turmoil following the resignation of Prime Minister on Bella Hancock and come less than 2 miles south. He was reinstated to under deal with the military. The senior military leader general abdel father albert hahn is calling for an urgent caretaker government and new measures to deal with the demonstrations Pro Democracy Group say the military should stay out of government and are planning more protests. A political deadlock between all sides has left the country unable to transition from dictatorship to democracy. Since the asking of long time Rober Omar Bashir back in 2019. During a speech on stay tv, hemlock said more talks when needed for all parties to reach agreement. What on the opposite to loveland marshal remitted a round table for the salvation of the country to come to an agreement. I tried to spare my country the disaster. Recently i met with all the civilian and military officials of the Transitional Council to adjust his issues on monday after i decided to return to you what you have entrusted to me and resigned the position of Prime Minister. Last. Well, lets take a look back at how this started. 3 years ago and uprising and sudan forced the government from office. It began in december 2018 with protests over the rising cost of living. But it soon evolved into calls for an end to president obama. Alba shares 30 year rule that led to him being overthrown by the military and april of 20. 19. A power sharing agreement was signed in august that year, abdullah hm. Doc was appointed Prime Minister leading a Transitional Council. In february, he announced a cabinet re shuffle in the face of major street protests against fuel and bred shortages. Then last october, the military declared a state of emergency dissolving the interim government and arresting civilian leaders. Since then, thousands of people have demonstrated and dozens have been killed by security forces. Ah, i had had time to bring in our guests in nairobi, collude here is a political commentator and managing partner at incite strategy partners. In summerville, alex evolve is executive director at world peace, our nation at tufts university. And in doha, we have our meds, al jelly, a lawyer and legal commentator, a very warm welcome to the program to you all. Id like to begin with you. I think l. J lee are here in doha. Is abdulla han box resignation any surprise to you . It is not 10, despite all the headlines i would, i would describe it. Its probably the most consequential irrelevant event and instantaneous history. It is irrelevant because im dog as far as the people on the street are concerned, really loss is part of the political relevance. The minute he went, rogan signed that agreement with brewer han on november 21st. It is irrelevant also because its been weeks in the making, so its not a surprise to anyone yet. At the same time, this could prove to be a fairly consequential event, but mainly for the International Community, which was content to move on from sudan after the november 21st agreement. And maybe for the few remaining skeptics in sudan. Because what this resignation does is that it removes the last remaining fig leaf from the october 25th coo and it shall just chose it for what it really is. Its a full fledged military regime now. And that in effect force is the International Community to reengage and refocused insur, dan, which might be a good thing for the impact that is happening. And as far as the pro Democracy Movement, although they have moved on beyond, im broken his agreement. I think the political vacuum that his departure creates does create an impetus for them to move faster to try to present an alternative to try to unify their flight and prove to the world and to the rest of the sudanese population that they are able to unite and present a credible alternative, so thats why it is simultaneously relevant and irrelevant. At the same time, well talk a little bit later about the potential role of the International Community calling for. And i thought to cross the to night, well the who head, where does this leave to don . Where does this think the protest movement . Where does this leave the military to into and its plans . Well, my pointed out, you know, dog is just sort of his tenure represent a phase in the revolution. This is not in any way the sum total of revolution, the Democracy Movement was that beforehand office will remain there off to his resignation. And so this is just now sort of entering a new phase of the revolution. One where the purchase, the point of movement is unencumbered by discussions around whether i should be given a chance to make good on on the promises or whether he shouldnt. You know that conversation is now moved. The bigger conversation, the much more important conversation is how do we ensure that the army goes back into the barracks and leaves political and Economic Life for good. And of course, on the, on the military side, they now contend with a sort of a new calculation. Both internationally, but also domestically the more they double down and they have and they have been doing so the more they become. So the clear, overarching enemy without anyone to be able to sort of put the burden non unknown handbook, is no longer bad to blame as part of the governance structure. They are the government, unequivocally. And what that means is that they are International Back as mostly in the region are, will be increasingly unable to support them in the same way because of the reputation or risk that arises from the level of repression that were seeing. Alex, theyve all. Why did bella accept this deal in november in the 1st place . Was it just because he was, i mean he was under house arrest. Right. But did, did he truly believe it would work . Was it ever going to work . It was always going to be an extremely long shot, and i think he was under extreme duress. He was very isolated and the, and the key failing was that he negotiated really on his own didnt bring in the, the, the full Democracy Movement. All, all the civilian parties. So he was isolated from the beginning. I think he had to clear marked evasions. One which was on both will hon. One was to see if he could prevent further bloodshed and that didnt work out because the Democracy Movement does not accept his post. His, his is compromised proposals, and the 2nd was he sees very clearly and more clearly than any body else. The economic precipice and really hope that he would be able to engineer enough all, but he cannot make bail out to, to prevent the worst from happening. Now these, he never had the political base, the Political Support in order to be able to leverage concessions out of the military concessions that would have been necessary for his, his position to be workable and, and, and over the weeks it became clearly unworkable. And if that was a surprise, the only surprise was really that he held on for as long as you did before and quit. Ok. I had l. Julie, i mean the deal was that was that was announced last month was going to be an independent technocratic cabinet under military oversight. I mean, was that ever going to be acceptable to the people . Absolutely not. And i think that is demonstrated by the continued demonstrations on the streets. The a very cursory reading of that document of, of november 21st will tell you that he was just creating a civilian facade or military role. The, the, every paragraph was echoing the statement that were hon made on the day of the crew and he was given increase powers. If i recall correctly article for of that agreement to give the sovereignty counsel full oversight, or were all executive function. So im dogs hands would have been very tied even if he wanted to do good. He wouldnt have been able to do on i think he realized that are all beats a bit late, but he ultimately did holland had some critics of humbug have suggested that this not only lifts a veil on the november packs, but shows that even over the past 2 years since the toppling of my other shed that there was never actually the real political will to to make a phone transition to democracy. Once you take, i think thats clearly accurate on the military pride. I think they have been shown to be bad. Theyve acted when it comes to a lot of these agreements that they signed, including the constitutional declaration of 29. 00 team. One of the reasons, of course, of the constitutional declaration itself contained the cool clause that allowed them to sort of out in order to be able to take over. If they felt that things were not going according to plan. Of course, thats a very ambiguous statement. And it gives them that sort of latitude that theyve been enjoying pretty much since 2019. Some people have commented that, you know, this is sort of the military buying time that theyve been buying time over the past 2 years. And now were seeing this consolidation of the lam, a military project that we had on the ship. And we see this through, you know, the sort of appointments to the Security Check the appointments to the legal sector as well as the new emboldening powers of the Security Services as well as the other myriad of security or i from t just policies will Security Sector but what that means is that effectively, you know, the past 2 years have been this sort of experiment to the military to see, to what extent they could use the civilians as the speaking. And that didnt work so well in the past 2 years and were able to push through on some of the priorities. Course, there were lots of challenges that they face, particularly around federal governance, the unions lloyd cetera. But really, i think the bench previous just prior to the coo and then of course, subsequent to, to that really prove that, that the military never really within this for the democratic transformation, which is again unsurprising for anyone who has been watching saddam out of all in his televised speech mister humbug said that the country is at a dangerous turning point that threatens its whole survival. Do you agree with that sentiment . I. I dont think hes exaggerating. I think that is what we have at the moment is a regime in that is in some ways is a very familiar one. There in some ways this is, you know, with familiar with the military dictatorship, that was the put on the, the, the coding, the appearance of nationalism, of standing up saving the nation. But in this case, one of the training features of this regime is the extent to which it has penetrated the economy and especially Rural Society to militarize. Much of the commercial sector increasing the, the rural production sector as well, especially through the number 2 in the regime. General Mohammed Committee and his Rapids Support forces who are the de facto governing in da 4 and many of the areas and the depths of this threat to critic control and meet entanglement of this cat the critic system in the region in with, with egypt, with the gulf states et cetera, means this is actually a different regionalized form of military gum nuns that will be harder to up the roots. And i think this is really walk down from doc cancer as a conventional economist who had a vision of. So don, resuming us with developmental trajectory, its saying hes saying, i cannot find a way back to the economic and social stabilisation of saddam. We are in the grip of this of this monstrous trump boundary military acrostic system. I had l direly. I mean, that is a very dim, grim picture for the future. If in fact, what we have is a situation where the last 2 years of transition inverted commas has actually to full democracy, has actually not been that at all. Then how painful is the next weeks and months going to be for this protest movement, who are unrelenting in their desire to see a transition to a, to a full democracy. Think thats the real challenge. We have the full determination of the youth on the street to go on with their protests and regain the freedom that theyve urine for 4 years. And we have the generals who are refusing to, to, to give up power. So its the classic, Unstoppable Force facing the immovable object. But if, if we, if we read the landscape, we see that sudan has been ungovernable for, for the military over the last 2 months since theyve taken over. And the, the demonstrations have only increased and i think with the departure of Prime Minister handbook the, the intern, the internal pressure will be coupled by increasing intra international pressure. And the military wont be able to continue the bloodshed that they have started before. For fear of increase international pressure, so they will be faced with the menu of 3 options. The 1st is an negotiated exit, where they step down and leave the country. And then the 2nd is a possibility of an internal cool within the armed forces. And 3rd is, is, is an unarmed confrontation, some type of civil war. And i think we all prefer the 1st option, and i think the increased pressure on, on the, on the military will hopefully yield that outcome. And thats why we urgently hope that the International Community will regain its focus on sudan and try to avert option to an option 3. That could lingo i could bring a lot of bloodshed that that can be avoided. Holler head, how do you think the military is going to respond to under a 100 bucks a resignation and and do you think that they will follow through on this promise for elections in july 2023, i believe was the date. I mean, the 1st question, i think they were initially worried about departure because they, the reason they were coming back on the 1st of november was so they could gain access to international financing. Obviously that have materialized because the International Community that would give over or tacit approval to the general hadnt back that up financially, which i think is a good thing. But in the middle of all that sort of negotiation, they have realized that he wont, that he, that the money isnt coming. And now with his resignation, its almost certainly look like it isnt. So theyve been shopping around for placement. Weve had certain names including the minister of finance, but of course nobody wants to set this point in charlotte, because any Prime Minister that is put in place now will just like him to be seen to be an accomplice to the murders. And the killings in the detention, etc. And so theyre going to have a very difficult time finding a p. M. And in any case, they are not the body constitutionally that appoint a Prime Minister is either the f, f c or a parliament which has never been formed during this transition period. So they will find a very difficult time to make it stick, even if they do find someone whos willing to go in with them at the elections. At the election 2023, only benefits be the general, the only benefit. So very much that the background and so i dont think, i think everyone will see through at a sort of an elections egypt style as, as the sort of theater of democracy that rather than the actual genuine commitment to it. And so i dont think theyll get anywhere with an election by way of convincing people both domestically and internationally, if in any way, for many of the Political Parties to commit to the electoral process. Only 6 months from now. I list of all, i will the International Community do think increase it engagement increase its pressure on the military as a result of, of this, the question, what, what, what can or might it do . Were up to know the International Response said by the United States with europe in tow, over the last few months to be extremely feeble. The international have very, very strong content because of the Financial Dependence of sued on, on, on debt relief and on the Multilateral International assistance. But those comes really have not been paid at all effectively. What we have seen particular from washington is that policy in the entire region and the whole of the horn of africa has, under the trumpet, ministration was essentially delegated to israel egypt, saudi arabia and the united are and where they were given a 3 year free hand to do pretty much what they wanted in sit on in new york and in somalia. And the Biden Administration has not pulled that but and, and essentially the that the calculation as i see it of the generals is that they have their friends in the region. They have egypt very clearly behind them israel, through the extension of the camera. Hm. Of course, the recognition of saddams, recognition of israel is, is dealing directly with general have no interest in democracy. And the saudis, and the morattis, as we know, also have no interest in democracy and now them patching up the differences with other states in the region, including katara, turkey that are also not in favor of democracy. And these states have enormous lobbying power in European Capital and in the us that they are sold at cetera, et cetera. We know that the influence they know what, how hon and make the accounting on, is that they ultimately well see out any, any pressure for democratization from western nations because of this solid barking in the region. And at the moment, washington london, paris brussels are doing almost nothing to disabuse them all this preconception. Im an elderly dale, agree with that assessment in terms of the international and legion says that the geo political powers at play here. Yes or no, i think i think its pretty clear that sudan is, is in a difficult neighborhood, so to speak. And i think part of the problem is that the pro democracy camp did it, did a horrible job presenting its case while they were in power. For example, hum, doke happily went on to European Capitals in the u. S. And completely gave up the regional relationships for brohannon committee to to further cement the perception that the pro democracy camp is a threat to, to the interest of those regional allies. I think there is a past where the pro democracy camp can present its case and can present the reality that that one, sudan is ungovernable for these military leaders. And that the long term stability of sudan will not happen without the st getting what it wants. And without that, there will be significant ramifications for the region which will be part of the National Security of those regional players. So i think there is an argument to be made to, to, to the u. S. Europe and definitely including the regional allies that their long term interest is actually even if they dont agree with the concept of democracy. But they have a vested interest in a stable sedan. And that a democratic sedan is not going to be an exporter of revolutions. But a place that is stable, that is economically stable, that where they can talk about food security, talk about regional security, and we can have the same conversations. I think other players might be a little different, i think is ro, russia on others who may have more to 1st interest might be difficult to, to win over. But i think at least the europeans, the americans in the regional allies, with some constructive dialogue can be brought forward. And i think the possibility of american sanctions on the cool leaders are, which is being tabled now in the Congress Might change. They quit just significantly because if those individuals become toxic and become a liability for their regional allies, i think we will see pressure by those regional allies on those individuals are step aside and called for new military leadership that is more willing to to heat the calls of the streets. Hello. Hey, whats your tag . What if any sort of pressure might make the military bank track honda to a full civilian government now and, and if you do think its possible, would that be internal pressure from the protest movement . Would that be external pressure from the International Community or both . It does absolutely need to be both. We can suddenly bank on the domestic pressure to the pro Democracy Movement. What has been not so dependable has been the international pressure. And its quite clear that the military, you know, the main constituency is not the domestic one. They all the different general also how that have Different Countries of days or to rely on in the patron client sort of relationship. And so there is, you know, when we say the general sort of more link to more, engage more with the region, thats not necessarily a monolith. You know, there are these sorts of individual relationships going on as well. Because problem is then, you know, to give the administration that do, they did realize that the, the military back so heavily on the regional mentioned before. And so they did, you know, try and make sort of overtures to the country that particular saudi arabia. And we did see some net impact of that in the way that saudi arabia, in relation to egypt, israel and the way he responded to the crew. But of course as meaning this, unless it actually translates into pressure, meaningful pressure. Transformative pressure on the general, and that will only really come about if there is a concerted shift away from sedan, being seen as a security to a security len. Rather than to a Foreign Policy led with gentlemen partnerships, economic or otherwise can take, can be cultivated. And so what we have right now is, you know, the pressure that is needed essentially from the west on these regional powers. It isnt really having the impact, and thats like, and thats due to a global shift in the influence of western countries, but mainly the u. S. After the trip, trump policy of out sourcing regional horn of africa policy to the go, which is the way is a whole other discussion a whole of the inside Story Program in of itself are we will have to leave it there for time. A big thank you to or i guess for joining us on the program. Hello. Cleared alex deval and el jamie and thank you for watching. You can see the program again any time by visiting our website sel, 0 dot com. And for further discussion, go to our Facebook Page at facebook dot com forward slash ha, inside story. You can also join the conversation over on twitter. Handle is at ha, inside story from me, kimber now, and the whole team here. And ill have a ah a step beyond the comfort zone for assumptions or challenge. Travel to the ends of the earth and further experience the unimaginable of the people who live it is probably the most extreme situation ive been involved in. How quickly things contract Award Winning documentary is that also a perception witness on a, just the euro. A war in afghanistan is now. Will non taliban figures make up a part of with that american you can report within the caliber believe that there will be a house with inside story podcast. A frank assessment of the div headlines subscribe. Now, however you listen to podcasts from lagos, to jerusalem, to my am on the government. This plan to do my own home milestone mon history, my background 3 short films that show how people take a stand against evictions in their struggling communities. The 1st time they arrested me, i was 11 years old. Ha, selects on al jazeera. Ah im ali inside and ohio top stories on al jazeera. The u. S. Has become the 1st country to report a 1000000 current of ours cases in a single day. A combination of the delta on the call variance a driving reco infection. Numbers us president j bought and says the key to beating the outbreak as for unvaccinated people to get their jobs. John henson reports with the latest covariance soaring to record highs. President joe biden began with a warning and ill give it to you straight as i promised you. I