Message away from what joe biden had to say. And the politicize ation of basic Health Measures with. The most impassioned that weve heard joe biden on that particular issue saying that by wearing a mask you could save the life of somebody packing shelves in a supermarket you could save the lives of one of your childrens teachers you could save your own life this was the absolute thrust of what hes saying and that takes particular residence at the moment given the news of a potential vaccine that weve heard in the course of the day joe bidens response to that welcoming congratulating the team who working on the development of this particular vaccine all of this of course while donald trump still refuses to concede defeat his team is preparing legal challenges to some of the counts going on in battleground states that favor joe biden. Other world news a new round of talks on libya is underway in tunisia as capital 75. 00 libyan representatives from various groups have been invited by the u. N. Which is leading the discussions last month but sides announced a permanent cease fire which has largely held the talks are a way to set the groundwork for possible elections in libya and officials in the disputed region of were going to say the city of has been taken by forces from azerbaijan those claims had initially been denied thousands of armenians and are fleeing the area and me and miles governing party says its won enough seats to form a government despite no official announcement from the Election Commission a vote counting is still going on and National League for Democracy Party which is led by on sun suchi one a landslide election victory 5 years ago these are in 25 minutes time right now though its the latest edition of inside story with mohammed. Tension is running high in ethiopia Prime Minister abbay ahmed is stepping up a military offensive in the Northern Region of ukraine and he sacked a number of top officials but how far will he go and is there a risk of escalation this is inside story. Hello and welcome to the program. If the o. P. s Prime Minister ahmed has reshuffled his cabinet and top military leadership he sacked the army chief head of intelligence and the foreign minister the Central Government in addis ababa has launched a military operation in the Northern Region of to gray the offensive comes after months of growing tensions between the federal government and to graze governing tea p. L. F. Party of a ahmed has accused the t. P. L. F. Of attempting to undermine his leadership and move to dissolve its Regional Government but those integrate say obey him it is not a legitimate leader since he postponed elections this year due to cope with 19 and they say theyre being targeted unfairly to graze leaders have called on the African Union to intervene to prevent an all out civil war amid says the offensive will in soon when the rebels are brought to justice will bring in our guest in a moment 1st this report from outcome webb in kenyas capital nairobi. The leadership of ethiopias to gray region aside the federal government has carried out at least 10 airstrikes in recent days a senior general from the federal army said its intensifying its s. Right on selected targets humanitarian workers say theyve heard shelling and heavy fighting in the area of the border between the to gray region and the m r a region where all the communications have been cut off so difficult to get Accurate Information on what exactly is going on the fighting started last week both sides blame each other for starting it but the conflict has actually been brewing for many months to great leaders dominated ethiopias politics and its military for almost 3 decades intil Prime Minister took over 2 years ago to grain leaders a complaint since then theyve been unfairly targeted with prosecutions and arrest as part of a crackdown on past rights abuses and corruption if you have you with you to hold nationwide elections in august but they were postponed the government said because of the covert 19 pandemic the to grand leadership didnt accept that and they said a failure to hold an election meant the Prime Minister of a ahmed and his government were no longer legitimate they went ahead and held their own Regional Elections in the to grey region which the federal government didnt acknowledge they didnt accept the results to have a situation where both sides were refusing to accept each others legitimacy and they stopped communicating now to great demand a militia of about 250000 fighters over a significant part of ethiopias military including a lot of its tanks and a lot of it artillery was stationed in the to grey region thats because of the past decade long conflict with neighboring eritrea now that the grand leaders say that a big part of that military is called the northern command. The fact to do with thought id been sent to government. Its not clear if there have been defections or how many thought in fact they did but it is clear to both sides in this conflict the heavily armed they have think never can forgive and theres a high risk of a bloody and protected civil war. All right lets bring in our guests all of them joining us today from addis ababa William Davis is a Senior Analyst for ethiopia at the International Crisis group mustafa omar is president of somali Regional State of ethiopia an executive Committee Member of the governing Prosperity Party and mess and is assistant professor of law at Addis Ababa University school of law a warm welcome to you all william let me start with you what are you hearing about how intense the fighting is currently integrate well its a little bit hard to get really solid reliable information about that but what we do know is there has been a fairly sustained fighting in the western part of tikrit. That was where. Jeff forces were alleged they were attacked the military base and that is where the federal intervention is sense it is a fairly sustained fighting there are reports of sort of tens of casualties and that im receiving but ive heard that some people are receiving reports of far more and then there was a bombardment of federal air strikes by military installations around the capsule mehta late that that was a couple of days ago so thats pretty much an understanding of the situation at the moment must suffer Prime Minister abbott has replaced his army chief his deputy army chief theres been a new foreign minister and a new federal Police Commissioner all appointed on sunday what are the reasons for that. This is part of the usual shake up of the permits that has been doing. In the past 2 years not to particular about this but this move this is teach. To position the country for the time we are now in talks which is forcing the rule of law in a part of the country thats was going to look less and bad do you expect that the fighting is going to be intensifying in the coming days and if so how close does that put the country to all out civil war when the federal government is obviously trying to enforce because as you know dana you get it you got peoples aggression progs. In sinai now its a country front or just as a minister some of dinner or members of the government had issued on our eastland for some of the human rights abuses and the corruption that you quote action that just interest i think is a bust 27 years so it sounded really important. I mean its prized obviously would have to look at the progress of how things would go in the coming weeks but a mixture say shes going to be very limited and very. Often it would be finished a very short time thats. I think what what the governments position is and whats. Possible william i want to get your point of view on just how devastating all this could be for ethiopia and also how the stabilizing could all this be for the horn of africa region. Well look at think we need to focus on their here and now. So if you want like entirely understand that from the federal governments perspective as mess in bed said arrest warrants have been issued theyre not being complied with the federal government classified to grace government as illegal and there is a federal effort to remove the leadership thats so totally understandable from the federal governments perspective the problem is that there to great leadership has built up a relatively Strong Security apparatus integrate there also seems to be a problem that some of the federal military stationed integrate is not fully supporting the federal intervention and has sided with its a great leadership and additional fact is that this Regional Election that the federal government is classified classified as illegal and that is led to the attempt to remove the take race leadership that seems to be supported by a large number of the 6000000 to grant people who while though they may well not they may well have massive problems with aspects of the leadership they seem to support them on this core point so the issue is how easy is it going to be to carry out this Law Enforcement operation many of us are concerned this is not going to be a quick victory and its going to if there is a victory for the federal government its going to come at huge cost and in terms of human lives and displaced people that seems to be a likely prospect of course if that does materialize it will really stretch the Ethiopian Armed forces which is somewhat spits over this it will weaken ethiopias government it will therefore embolden opponents elsewhere in ethiopia and we could lead to a sort of escalating crisis of the across the country and to get your question if the ethiopian state is significantly destabilized it of course that will have a massive impact on the horn of africa because ethiopia is a country of 110000000 people and is it is the absolute linchpin country in the. Mustapha you heard william there talk about the fact that there is concern in some quarters that there could be perhaps a fracturing of the military in the north im curious to know what your response is to that and also your response to what william said when he when he said that he believes that this is a conflict that could drag on when i dont share the williams. Points about the northern coal mine siting with the with that we dont keep a list theres no evidence for that in fact on the contrary what we know is that the not an old mind has been attacked by the. Police special police so you would wonder why would you attack a command that is taking orders from you so definitely not on the same level and thats what we know is that the t. T. L. Of policies and National Security threats and absolutely there was no other way other than conducting a low cement operation now the fact that that new drug will not drag on does not invalidate all that legitimize the move by the time you stand for the government because what youre watching it watching the detail of who into. The hall today on people found some would amount to a dereliction of duty and also without the country but into a violent civil war so rather than saving this as the. Chill for a civil war it should actually be perceived as as an attempt to up there to see what we call the keep a lot to be working on dismantling the country once its lost power mess in bed i want to get your perspective just how strong are degrees Security Forces i mean are we talking about Paramilitary Forces are we talking about militias how well trained are they and how big are their numbers. 70 grams of s. And i think im not going to say i mean if i got it but we can speak about the more you know the just. And you know the to the federal government would be better for it to stop it i think in force because you know for the past 25 or 70 years that it was in a highly corrupt and rationalized executive any less than a society and the benefit of the economy and the political benefits went to a very small clique of the you get it and i think we have a much. You know create i mean my own brand of ford for 17 years and its very breaks my heart when i speak since if you look at hearings for people like most about 100100 people kind of government a National Unity corporation rather than division the spirit that the 2 philip had created you know the political competition that they had was to consorted power to divide the state by ethnicity and religion and as a. Fix it identity and it does not really any political to reach that race the way i. Can that this is that this was embedded into small so what i. B. M. Of tried to bring was a kind of he was a more every consolatory kind of political figure so the i have never seen in the political history of your dad where 1000000 people i discovered i didnt went out without any court supported Government Program largely because 2 people. The Political Division in the country and it kind of to get into Comedy Central you know puts kind of vision that any other country to the 100 we thought is political problems has brought so when when when we dont face you know shes just trying to tally many to dance of course might feel sympathetic to get it because of the historical factors obviously of coming to party and if you think of for that matter very difficult to act and then as you might you know william. This is all very complicated its a complicated situation so i want to i want to take a step back and talk specifically about the tigre a region for a moment or to. The to great people make up about 6 percent of ethiopias population but for about 3 decades theyve wielded enormous power theyve had outsized influence how did they obtain such influence and how much did that influence really start to wane when mr abbay came to power well decrees ruling party began as a rebel group in the 1970 and they essentially is spearhead is. A Rebel Alliance that overthrew a military regime in 1009. 150 p. And f. Was the dominant power when egypt at state was reconstituted in the 1990 s. They devised what instrumental in devising the federal system the multinational ethnic that will system and the message that was describing and that mess and bet and many other egypt ins oppose and then the teacher have formed the core of the of the Ruling Coalition that governed. For that 3 decade period and so thats you know thats the key to thats why that is such a prominent force in egypt imposes most stuff what has the reaction been from the Prime Minister with regard to calls for mediation calls for deescalation by the un and by others were what does the Prime Minister think when it comes to that. Well that has demonstrated hes ready just for dialogue and for moderation all along in the last 100 years when the t. T. L. Of who was violets in every norm of the political system in utah when they were violating the constitution were doing going along with the election this year has been illustrated and im missing im missing lidless of patience to an extent where hes done its got allies like myself have at times. Seriously disconcerted with the level of patience shown for that however dialogue. It cannot replace the they didnt need to enforce the rule of law in the country without which there can be no country nor sense of respecting country can allow. People of whom to. Take 6000000 people hostage to conduct sham election in which the eucharist exactly when 100 percent to completely. To take. Any orders from the Central Government as per the constitution and therefore the Prime Minister has already shown hes witnessed he has also exhausted all. Cant live through solution. By sending by engaging continuously i think the course for their looks should have come with the detail of. Optimally flaunting the laws of the country now its about enforcing the rule of law and theres no going back on that. The detail of has chosen has chosen Cotton Kitchen over dialogue and then the upset is today is not matched by what theyre going to get out some of their senior year shes been boasting about having. That can go up to 700 kilometers to strike if you can cut talent other talents will have you seen. Leadership. That is attacked at a country which they are threatening to strike with me sites and now you have seen that the former Prime Minister former. Foreign minister wants to see less than one thing really drawing parallels between ethiopia and shia yemen somehow. Giving the impression that levy and yemen out when it comes to fall now this is unacceptable and then thought of not only the Prime Minister but the entire federal government and the ruling party. Exhausted all options we understand International Dialogue its welcome but that cannot substitute for their for their mandate to enforce the rule of law and to keep the country to get a mess in but i saw you nodding to someone must suffer was saying so i want to get your reaction but i also want to ask you about the same point i mean do you think it can get to a stage where there is perhaps a truce and if that happens if the escalation efforts work what comes next and National Dialogue what are the steps that need to be taken to ensure that it continues to deescalate. Thank you when i think the. President will stop i say it is an important thing i think and i genista if the preconditions