Line tackles the big issues this is shaping the United States its people its economy and the way it deals with the rest of the world the bottom line only. Hello im daryn jordan this is counting the cost on aljazeera your look at the world of business and economics this week cracks in the Global Economy stocks saw to record highs despite the coronavirus pandemic billionaires become richer but the poor get poorer so is it time to finally confront capitalism. Remaking china and the world in president cheese image is the middle kingdom looking inwards as the chill of a new cold war threatens the factory of the world. And global debt saws as government spend spend spend on the world cope with even more debt. Well no nation has been spared from the coronavirus pandemic with 22000000 cases and almost 800000 deaths the Health Crisis is far from over a secondary spikes flare up we may have seen some of the worst economic costs but most pain could be lurking as we head into the final few months of the year well most of the industrialized world has delivered on its 2nd quarter g. D. P. Numbers and the worst performer was Boris Johnsons britain its economy contracted more than a 5th after failing to lock down early enough the country also has the most deaths in europe. While the Unemployment Rate has yet to reflect the severity of the economic crisis its only a matter of time when furlough schemes across europe come to an end in the United States more than 20000000. 00 people lost their jobs before a stuttering recovery began in the developing world those in the informal economy with the worst affected with more than 120000000 day laborers losing their jobs in india well against this backdrop the United States and china have inch towards a new cold war President Trump is taking aim at Chinas Hong Kong security law the internment of millions of we goes and Technology Companies that are seen as a Security Threat president xi has extended his control inside china and has taken a more aggressive expansive approach high in the himalayas on the disputed border with india and across the South China Sea so lets take some of those issues and put them into our expert panel and see whats in store for the rest of the year joining me from london is bill ill have fees c. E. O. Of micro hive and from singapore via skype is rajiv biz was rajeev is the executive director and asia pacific chief economist at i. H. S. Market and from london is robert quarterly Janiero Robert is visiting fellow at the observatory with the London School of economics let me start with you 1st if i may so what are we then to make of the recovery in china what are we seeing and what are we not seeing because there appears to be this build up of supply factories are humming but consumers are not spending. Well the chinese economy has rebounded very well from the shutdown that happened back in february at the peak of the pandemic in china and weve seen Industrial Production actually coming back to pretty much normal levels and i actually growing compared to creat pandemic output levels and on the consumer side activity is also normalized to a large extent its almost back to the pre and demick levels of retail sales however some sectors are still lagging clearly tourism still is very much impacted and also the Airline Industry commercial travel was still below the levels of preplanned demick but i think when we look at chinas Economy Today its really probably leading the Global Recovery out of the pandemic robert lets bring you into him and talk about the geopolitical situation starting with that relationship between the United States and china let me ask you is this the new cold war and what does it mean for trade its a little bit and you will think it does across a number of areas most players human rights trace the u. S. The u. S. Has to. Do with this huge trade deficit with china about 420000000000 it can use that money to refocus efforts and trade relationships elsewhere so you so apple recently nuisance adoption to india those opportunities to things in malaysia air and be. Chinese its a whole 0 percent of outstanding u. S. Treasuries 11 trillion and the u. S. Really needs to in the long. Stop china helping. Keep it was available to the many simply the most. Remote sissy recently their way that chinese times you know dont dance list and you have stock exchanges which is part of the country for the china hustle and then the aussie evade the sea of things that we say things like to talk and we chat in the us are going to be stopped less than by u. S. Companies say its a its a big play. Really to me cole who at this moment and thats what it needs to be as an economical whole so that its not a military war and thats what the u. S. Can tell you that is if they buy parts and supports with joe biden wins the next actual or whether done from stays in this president this white hot sand for spots or for tougher line on chart below lets bring you in here because purely on the economic basis i mean why would china be pushing a more expensive approach a more confrontational approach with its neighbors i mean is china feeling stronger more emboldened perhaps. Yes i do think there is a big element off that i think under president xi the regime there has become more. And more concerned with protecting power i think also theres an issue around the u. S. Withdrawal from the global stage which then allows china to be no expansive in its neighboring countries and then also has an economic aspect to all of this which china does also want to consolidate its economic relationships across asia again in response to some of the threats from the u. S. As well rajiv whos done the best job then of handling the crisis in the Asia Pacific Region i mean is that new zealand vietnam or south korea well as i mentioned china is leading the recovery if we look at a global level and in the cases of vietnam. New zealand and south korea they had been doing very well until basically just a couple of weeks ago they had managed to control their cases to a very very low levels in the case of new zealand the vietnam they had 3 months straight with no cases. Fortunately its all come on wound in the last couple of weeks with an upsurge of cases in all of those 3 countries so although the case levels are still relatively low compared to their population it does show that you are getting the 2nd waves springing up across the region but at an economic level there has been quite a good rebound across the region most of the countries in the asia pacific kept showing quite a rebound youre insured in july as lock downs have been lifted and some of the restrictions in terms of movement and consumer activity have been slowly relaxed so i think if youre not mike level theres improvement but this does on going concern about the impact of 2nd waves that are hitting a number of the countries in asia region and raw but every time we have a crisis we always talk about the remaking of capitalism or the economy i mean will things change. Well they said i think so basically said we need things to change. You know the last 3 or 4 week not recessions they end and then we move back into a new Business Cycle so forget. I think this time you know what we need is high wages and its inflation when it said it will Business Models people he joked said this is a huge deal our jobs before this i says there are millions and millions of people out work so. We have to move forward in a way that. What will happen. Thats much harder to set below let me bring you back into the into the discussion here is g. D. P. Everything i mean as new zealands Prime Minister just pointed out Economic Growth is pointless unless people are thriving. Yes absolutely i mean i think for a long time as being the critiques of g. D. P. In fact when g. D. P. Was 1st crazy and the intention wasnt pretty to be the big target for poor economy so the big issues we do have a g. D. P. Todays money is best simply a measurement issue how do you measure petitional economy and whats going on in additional world in g. D. P. Statistics so theres 1. 00 just basic error that you have there another is that i am very simple that more g. D. P. Expansion also means that you are draining the earth of its resources at a very simple levels and doesnt take into account environmental impacts and finally theres an issue around whether g. D. P. Equates to well being and happiness or not and all of these are problems with g. D. P. So alternatives do need to be looked at and lets just talk about something weve heard a lot about over the last couple of months and its stimulus packages do you think we have an addiction to them because it seems every time theres a crisis governments think that they can resolve it by throwing money at the problem. Well weve now had 2 massive crises since 2009 obviously the Global Financial crisis when the Banking Systems in the u. S. And europe were basically failing and the Central Banks the fed the e. C. B. And bank of england stepped in with massive stimulus measures governments also reacted with strong fiscal stimulus and then you know rowing forward another 10 years down the road here we are with a massive pandemic Global Pandemic and Central Banks and governments are doing even more if anything you know government stimulus packages across the world very very large and there will be a price to pay for this huge spending. Government debt levels risen significantly because of this spending by governments and of course the expansion of Central Bank Balance sheets eventually has to be on wound so all of these things will affect the medium to long term outlook for many countries for some developing countries maybe even more immediate triggering debt crises and external payment crises in some developing countries but i want to pick you up on something that you mentioned earlier and thats about employments old block of jobs why has europe not seen the same slump in jobs that asia africa and the United States as witness for example. One of the casings that was a year. Was going to safety nets it doesnt have the harm far culture. Employment it will for will but in for so thats one of the reasons why we see the job losses yet but dont see sets or set around ruffling here the aviation manufacturers tours you know seeing those shops not starting to be lost big numbers a. C. C. Announced specify 1000 job losses box expenses and you cannot 7000 job losses thats just 2 examples its difficult to see where this jobs will come back from i mean overall employment in europe is 7. 5 percent but that really mocks the fact that this some countries say its 14 percent and its heading towards 15 in greece it was also 40 percent say it was 7 c. That it was nonsense and it was 10 percent. Employment unemployment is increasing at a rate which is greater than European Commission thought it would be the 20202021 so if were already seeing those levels now thats a real worry going into the next year and if you look at the u. S. And how the u. S. Is going to see the u. S. Last jobs are 0. 15 people there on an old and you put about 1000000. 00 people your car you see think state aid for them. Yet 47 percent of americans have lost their jobs in the u. S. Those chips are never going to come box as a level of hopelessness. Which to say the u. K. And the e. U. Havent yet had property and i see you missed the beginning of the for a while and see if its 9000000 jobs not all ringback of these chips are going to remain so. Its a huge concern and i think youre able to delay you know it all and whats. Below lets just stick with britain if we can because britain has been the outlier in whichever metric you can think up worst 2nd quarter g. D. P. More deaths than anywhere else in europe and its only going to get worse isnt it well certainly the u. K. Has had one of the worst performances in europe the question of whether it will get worse is less clear cut you know one is because although many countries are seeing 2nd ways and theres some evidence youre seeing some signs of that in the u. K. That the scale of that is not the same as it was 34 months ago so i think the the extent of the crisis in terms of cases and debts just isnt as extreme as it were as it was before moreover what we have a full lockdown in the u. K. Then we saw most of grot decline in the economy and i dont think well see such a such a large decline again not least because the economy is reopening up so its much more important you know much more able to for us to see Economic Activity in the u. K. The challenge though for the u. K. Is that we also have a bracks it coming up as well so on top of the lingering impacts of the coded recession you also have a huge trade shock that is coming down the line negotiations so far have not necessarily progressed that much so you case extremely vulnerable at this stage in terms of whether it will have a sustainable and fast recovery from here on words and thats an important point to make let me bring in rajiv back here because you look at britains handling of the crisis and you look at the strength of the pound i mean it does define logic i mean markets just seem to be detached from reality so what am i missing rajiv. Well i think there is a lot of. You know your store sions and whats happening in markets because of the large Central Bank Liquidity flows into the Financial System you know that as a recently one of the factors behind whats happening with assets on the other hand you know in terms of currencies youve seen the weaker dollar in recent months and i think probably partly due to this situation where it comes shouldnt say and the Financial System has declined as Central Banks are or liquidity into the system so the pound i think probably benefits from the weaker dollar and says the euro so its a question of you know which currency is uglier amongst the major reserve currencies right now so i think it is a very unclear situation in terms of how awesome prices will form thats why youve seen go rallying thats very seen also some of the cryptocurrency is increasing because investors are concerned about the Financial System and what the implications are of this huge expansion in Bank Balance Sheets from the fed e. C. B. And other Central Banks and also the consequences of this huge increase in Government Debt so these are i think long term challenges are going to be with us long after the pandemic is over a robot lets talk about some of the wealthy people in the wealthier corporations i mean all 1000000000 as do you think a sign of an Economic System thats broken i mean jeff bezos for example has seen his wealth rise by 300000000000. 00 apple has just become the worlds Biggest Company by market value. Yeah its a credit was it and i think they let me say apple ok because were 2 trillion. Dollars which is lost in the Italian Economy which he basis just misses incredible i guess you could if he wages it success and the people can become not wealthy but also because people say its hatched from lives and inequality that exists around the wall so its but its but i think people need to be well much money no is a problem that companies are that bible yeah i think when you start becoming bigger than the 10th richest economy in the wall and that is a strategic issue for countries ringback to live cam examine what they can do about. It beyond it it creates klitschko resentment. And this of great examples recently in history with the arab spring with the Russian Revolution the french revolution of if if the people who talk have say much the people who have nothing then in time will become an issue that people will be willing to accept and so its all easy to blame rich people for being wealthy misstep at the mules its that ways that would destroy the assets of finance to people around the wall and that if it cheaper homes better wages that debt or less debt and not just say well d that sis tax the rich people will say about how to improve the lives of everyday people all right so weve talked about the rich and the poor heres a question gentlemen that i want to put to all of you if you can answer briefly for me but ill let me start with you i mean we can forget any idea of a v. Shaped recovery so whats your best produces briefly. Well i think what made it does depend which region of the world but it but in general my sense is that we are going to see a recovery across the world it will be more shallows the running of the it could be more like a source like in my case watch so there will be some recovery you know i dont think that we are going to answer another major recession so id say a recovery not necessarily a completely shape but nevertheless we will we will see a recovery and it will vary across regions around the world yet rajiv are you seeing any any signs of the green shoots of recovery perhaps really has been a huge rebound all around the world since german in terms of manufacturing output and also in terms of retail sales its not come by anywhere near what it was before the pandemic but there has been a rebound as lockdowns of been lifted and factories are allowed to resume production and as stores have reopened the restaurants are 3 of them so were to have seen some back tow