President for a 6th term about a russian leader claimed a landslide victory the opposition call for a vote ring 1000 protesters are arrested is this a turning point for the country this is inside story. Hello and welcome to the show im samis day than his critics describe him as europes last dictator Alexander Lukashenko is set to rule the roost for a 6th term hes already been president for 26 years official results from sundays election say he won by a landslide but the opposition is rejecting that official result looking shanker as preelection popularity fell because of his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and worsening economy he faced his toughest election challenger so far svetlana the one of skier a former teacher and stay at home mother with no political experience attracted huge support that was despite a crackdown on election rallies and on other opposition candidates who were either jailed or barred from campaigning protesters battled with riot police in the capital minsk on sunday xander started from Humble Beginnings he served with soviet border troops then ran a state farm before his rise to power he built his political career as an anti corruption. Politician and was elected president of belarus in 1904 has long been criticized for oppression though hes twice amended the constitution to scrap term limits and increase president ial powers hes ruled through state control of the economy and media the former soviet country had close ties with russia but the relationship with the kremlin soured when the question co turned towards the european union. Lets bring our guests into the show we have joining us from the ukraines capital kiev. Have hes the executive director of the Eurasia Democracy Initiative in london alex cobb child of a Principle Research analyst at the Risk Consultancy i. H. S. Market he specializes in russia and Eastern Europe and on the phone from minsk we have the pena hes the robert stiffed an academy fellow at the Chatham House institute in london welcome to you all if i could start then with 3 hor in minsk is this a turning point in belarusian history thanks a lot from harry hopefully. We can play lower than a rouge. Health class and let not it was actually a 2 momentary blow sent to 23 military really brutal 2 forestry anyway. My troll actually. d has Just Launched into. The question right now. And relates to situation a very large and Beautiful Army and political blue so they are completely brutal actually. If by using forms for fuel to power put some plan tension between the sort of information. They will remain a 2nd well ive actually done role. Will be proven by any ritual to tackle political change the reality of real 44 and if you plan. To just change can come quickly. From the majority of bills fans want ok lets bring in alex if we could from london so alex listening to our radio had to say they dont expect any serious political change this year he says so is the challenge to look at shankar right now not that serious and i think obviously what we have seen this year is that there is significant political mobilization against location and against his government however because look action can control the elite he controls the electoral commissions and crucially he controls the police and the Security Services i think by using all these methods he will be likely to get to stay in power we have seen that his reelection has been recognized by a number of powerful foreign players particularly you know by russia and by china and with this external support he will be able to use the state apparatus which is in his disposal disposal in order to keep power in belarus pay to the end do you expect protests to grow are we looking at something thats going to be snuffed out very quickly or something that will grow with time. Why is difficult to predict so far. One a century but the russians have not shows the vision courage of the last to rome but on a look at this time theyre saying that they will we have seen the call go out on our. Feet on the internet that flickering in and out as you know it was shut down yesterday but there is still some sporadic connection people are able to connect to sporadically not only about all the through telegraph and other social and networks and the. Calling for a lesson on those riots starting tomorrow but also that its a time daily 7 pm rallies around the country there are able to get a sufficient force in the regions that they spell trouble look at and because mind you there if you are the services that they have special forces are also limited they have all been obviously into millions and that is their last quite a few years of Regional Centers abandoned pretty much the opposition must be a sufficient force in the region is never going to generate a little the spread very thin on the ground and that this may be true for so i wouldnt rule out the opposition yet but at the same time it is lucas general because at this point of the game it is because it is game to lose or i took a point papis to watch the regions re whole you are in of course belarus what is your take on the state of the opposition in the regions. Well actually very tricky question actually. Very very few friends there is no such thing as a physician who just crawled to the. People who really would like to have a president thats actually a huge challenge for the shot himself because he doesnt know which one she should try because im sure there are some ancient leaves referring to those Strong Company from. The commercial sector many general creative people are doing. It again. Actually there is no such skill to bisham the position is just a very very Huge Movement of people who just like to do is leaving it valerie hall who is leading the protests who is leading the coals for a strike i mean is that is it being led by the political opposition we know or some other figures or is this a very organic movement arising through the internet. Well thats true because it is actually the drop was announced by a had 22 years of blogger who lived in a divorce to use the most popular building. And she just amounted to just pull out and actually look its driving right now defection is no longer legally perilous by a blogger even to both to thank you from north korea because actually everyone just would like to have and this is why people do a full 82 days. And which might be present. With me if they focus one detuning on by but i didnt go back and decided to come with. This if they didnt come in and actually shes not going to put it in any form is just that thats interesting alexander how much power does the phone off of ition ready have and whether its mis tunnel skyla some of the other figures which are running for elections. Wealthy can oscar was the face of a protest vote so she wasnt opposition in the traditional sense meaning that she was part of an established Political Party a Political Movement with an ideological platform so shes quite different. In her candidacy was largely accidental and she became a reluctant face of the protest vote and fundamentally she you know she decided to run on a platform of becoming an interim head of state and still hold another election within the next 6 months which would be free and fair and open to anyone who wants to take part in it so shes not part of the established opposition which in case of belarus sister additionally link to issues of identity politics which resonates only with certain parts of society but not wide social groups and classes which find you cannot square with her platform appealing so in a sense could we say. Perhaps peter that were seeing a realignment of Political Forces as alex said theyre the more traditional Political Forces are arranged around identity politics are we seeing the current opposition rise above that sort of classification or indeed i have to argue by happen when you are immune to space colleagues who say to wreck the of this is not the opposition in the classical scares and i mentioned i mentioned it and thats Opposition Movement very loose sort of way because surely not the dire produce seems to be in opposition. I do believe that. The the independent pollsters have it right in fact the polar opposite of polling because of people who are opposite of what direction to reform it is it seems that a loss cant be him. By a landslide. And it just shows you that you could have run up housekeeping question well together ive been with my colleague and he will want are you gay and there is politics im not concerned about the actions now you have to keep in mind that you mentioned in your intro that the god with power for over a quarter of a century so essentially girls went straight from the soviet union to our one man strong as rule never really know why our democracy the way its current counterpart in that region has now its the law of ukraine so that there is going to be a new syria theyre tired after all sclerotic grew into question that theyre tired or i would use the analogy trying to beat up all those latent jabba the well it is behind the wheel of the law they want to modernize theyre seeing that this government is unable to provide for them. This government has been characterized by very inept response to the coronavirus well here realize the potential for. The opposition when not together the people who are not against the question can maybe discounting the problem of russia that is the elephant hang on the floor we get around let me let me jump in and present perhaps the narrative that were getting from the officials there in authorities there. You know val line is basically that were seeing offers ition figures is not a simple case of a democratic uprising taking place these are opposition figures as officials have tried to cast them as being manipulated by outside powers and to use your analogy you wont be driving a tesla wont be driving a tall because the alternative to look at shankar was a lot of instability which foreign powers ultimately want for better if thats the official line how do you respond to that peter. Well you know we dont really know but seems like its very very possible may come out of this some of the candidates including those who were thrown in jail may have harbored the secret sympathies or made secret deals with russia mr bush recall for example the one whos in jail he was. In fact in charge of a corporation that was a silly with the gas wrong the russian oil john so these things are unknown for now and discover you know the current leaders such as the ive spoken with them i spoke with them here on the streets of kiev where they were protesting last night that a bell Russian Embassy and that were staying away from a message in the russia which shows me that you know there is much we still the little and the group of one or soldiers or the 100. 00 agents that you mentioned that were arrested that may also be turning out to be a special operation either by the russians or why the lucas are going to sell to try to portray himself as the sole guarantor of the law in fairness there are just simply too many unknowns where are you have a clear picture of whats going on and what russia what russias goal is in all this lets might try and make the picture the clearer with regard to the sentiment of those protesters at least who have come out on the streets against the president and really whole what is galvanized the sentiment of those people so much against this president is it all down to his handling of the crime the virus i guess though there are actually 3 main reasons why the focus from. The feds are to fill the gap for that. Many people that come back surely at my age. And myself i was born when i became the chicken became pregnant for us and i actually paid for me and my life. And many people many people are remote its all in 5. Seconds and i guess you do the boots and filming with kid needs to be lost to us and if you dont get it many people want to disappoint you bad for them to fly for their level of fly with. That ill become chief like former champion and then develop more prospects like those have less and less books that each yeah and actually was one of a b. Is the kind of fiction thing that actually going to get you because frankly has no prospects and that seems to be true and thats why people are pulling her today just like to vote for her and the fed is doing just man mismanagement of the commitment to condemn the can balance with a shiny jests made everything seem to make people angry and if he means to kill him if im going to say colby he bland built for spreading desire and keep you voted for b. To be why they are susceptible to the virus though he was seized with management during the pandemic maynooth everyone in the sense that actually did not just believe in the just dont dream of kids about the companies and doesnt care if youve been involved Health Visitor why be people became very angry b b for some mindless spree. Lets take some of those points and alex the belorussian economy as we hope pointed out it has weakened has no i mean weve gone from a situation where it had growth of over 10 percent annual growth of over 10 percent in the early 2000 and now its projected to shrink 4 percent i think this year why has the economy worsened so much while in the in the recent years the economy didnt do particularly well and this is largely due to the fact that there have been no Structural Reforms the economy still dominated by large scale a state owned when you factor in enterprises and the state fundamentally dominates the many sectors of the economy from agriculture to manufacturing there are some bright spots in the Services Sector. Which has been really badly hit by the coronavirus by endemic despite the fact that valeries didnt introduce any lockdown measures or social distancing roles but are the people of these they reacted to the fact that there is this. Health care situation going on and theyve adjusted their behavior and as a result you know the Services Sector which was much more vibrant and mostly privately owned has been quite badly hit by it. With the government not wishing to reform the economy further obviously the prospects for growth are there are limits it and i completely agree with the who are the the Living Standards in bellerose have been largely stagnant in the past 10 years and this is one of the factors which drives people to these protests and why what hasnt been stagnant is the relationship with russia and peter as you explained weve weve heard the president come out and accuse the wagner group of conducting illicit operations in the country. Does this offer an opening for the west to increase its influence and leverage and does that mean that belarus will have little opportunity but to align itself perhaps closer with the west now. Well you know just to begin that and what our colleague just said to add another element to the. Economic woes that were witnessing is the last 2 years clinton basically cut off its. Oil and gas subsidies developers and i think honestly that has been made and thats the most proximate factor responsible for the downfall of all develop russian economy because theres a kind of decline that will be witnessing well and yet coming back to the situation of there was a group that seems to be gathered by the question of whether it was orchestrated by him whether it was once again we dont know exactly what they were doing whether they were big words to use them all but it is yet another example of how. The battle because russia and the west and he tried to going to this there where he was there is so guarantor of the russians are going to be getting russias encroaching one of the e. U. Now it is a moment or 2 they lifted the infant out of the sea is their sanctions are going to lose and now or after several statements by european politicians that they probably will not recognize the legitimacy d of the election theyre facing another star wars will they remain both of these elections and if they do what next will they serve holzer binding between english and wouldnt as a result and lose the rules altogether that is a very very difficult question the Baltic States are saying theyre going to be. Working with the opposition closer you get some ukrainian lawmakers there say there is the green declaring militia illegitimate so once again very very confusing chad just bored with easy and youre europe does not have maybe advantageous moves it is a very good. Using chess board let me go back to alex in london what do you think is the calculation that most western powers are going to make out of this theyre going to put their principles and care for democracy 1st or going to say hey you know come at a country slip per closer to russia well i think it will be very difficult for e. U. Countries to ignore what is happening in valorous particularly if if were going to see more violence by the police and Security Services towards Peaceful Protesters in the coming days there have been already. Calls to introduce political sanctions against bellary cilicia weeks before the election because hundreds have been arrested prior to the election and now with this new renewed violence and with the fact that there are obviously questions about legitimacy of the election and legality of the status of of the of the president. There will be even more calls for this we know that some of the neighboring countries particular poland and lithuania are calling for urgent meeting of the European Council and i think they will be they will be urging. Certain actions by the e. U. In order to prevent further violence in areas in both wrists ok im sure the president of course has a lot of power but there are others in the picture right there are networks associated with. Go there are the soviet era bureaucrats how do you see the centers of power figuring out where they put which direction they push the country right now. Well if he does belong forces institute to edge and says the most thoughtful and become. Happy by having a competing now to prove bad effect unless. Another sensitive really wants to fulfill the question im gonna. Have to use them and to command and reply to supposed to pay. Them off to combat go to v