A special report from iran has done what u. S. Sanctions still bring the countrys marketplace to a near standstill plus despite the highest death toll in the middle east the government has shifted focus from saving lives to save the economy counting the calls on aljazeera. Is it time we learn to live with the coronavirus and how should we all profile for a new wave of infections some countries reimpose lockdowns while others prioritize their economy this is inside story. Hello and welcome to the program and its me. Lockdowns to stop the spread of coronavirus are being lifted worldwide shops and businesses are reopening students are returning to school and some airlines are flying again but several countries have since reported a resurgence in new infections iran relaxed its lockdown in april when the worst covert 19 hour break in the middle east began to ease but this week the president threatened to reimpose restrictions as doctors recorded the highest ever total of daily cases south korea was praised for controlling its outbreak but shortly after they reopened hundreds of schools museums and parks are closed again because of a new wave of infections in the capital seoul china germany japan and saudi arabia already imposed some restrictions over the past month some Scientists Say a 2nd wave of infections is inevitable the World Health Organization warned recently that we may all have to learn to live with the virus this where is may become just another in demi gross in our communities and this way this may never go away hiv is not going away weve come to terms with the virus and we have found the therapies and we found the prevention methods and people dont feel has scared. As they did before and were offering life to people with hiv long healthy lows to people who cherry. Lets introduce the panel in manchester in the u. S. State of connecticut Jeff Schlegel milch Deputy Director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at the Earth Institute at Columbia University here in doha dr aleo moronic head of research and the Communicable Diseases center at how much medical corp and in Oxford England yan emmanuel de neefe behavioral economist and director of the wellbeing Research Center at Oxford University welcome to you all dr on ronnie ill begin with you 1st of all because are we right to assume that there will be a 2nd wave of the coronavirus and maybe a 3rd or 4th and 5th. But unfortunately human almost certainly will be learning from previous experiences with viruses the effect that has put it back generally and the behavior of corona virus is not expected to be any different once youve got the measures containing the initial out big will be individual that waves the size and the extent of those ways is where we perhaps do something to limit and minimize the effect of ok and yet emmanuelle then if if were going to experience further way how do you keep your populations with you fatigued as they are having enjoyed a 1st wave. A lot of fatigue indeed and we see it in their compliance behaviors with the current lockdown really good dropping. Quite a bit and even the post Lockdown People are we see we see a decreasing race of compliance however when if in the case of a 2nd wave we see the contagion rate go up again and fear taking hold in society then there is the mad for people to impose strong robust measures to provide psychological stability and a certain sense of security so when the 1st big wave hit there was a general an universal approval for these locked up measures that people held by them so my sense is although we have a lot of fatigue now and if there are big waves coming to cross over towards us and fear takes hold and lots of exciting and people will be willing to accept i think new measures to keep them safe jeff how do you keep populations with you as you try and manage the next wave of coronavirus. So its kind of a moving target depending on different dynamics within the population but i think one of the largest things is really to create this shared identity that were all in this together and to avoid these traps of fracturing the population or trying to blame other Political Parties or other segments of the society and certainly you know fear can be a motivator it can also make someone very very defensive depending on whether or not they feel theres any control anything that they can do about it so i think really reaching out not only from the government institutions to create a sense of unity but also into these other leadership roles within the Community Within the faith based Community Within various social circles is really going to be critical to to sustain into the the medium term this notion of were all in it together and the importance of these measures to protect not only ourselves but also our families and our loved ones ok so dr all moronic can we say how effective quarantine measures of benin slowing down the spread of the virus so far can people be persuaded that its been worth it. I think most people would say yes there will be office this some will argue against this but the facts on the ground say that until those lockdown measures and on and social and physical distancing measures that introduced effective weeks of extensive until these things became reality the outbreak wasnt under control in any way and on many of the nation 11 examples that one can point out china is the obvious one but also in our recent experiences from europe italy is now starting to get back to normal this would have been impossible without the social and physical distancing interventions that the government had to impose and a population of not complied with it and work with so i think it works and the evidence say it does quantification is not easy but the modeling shows clearly that we dont them this would have gone on and on unabated certainly with far more people affected and the more people needing hospital care and eventually some of the large proportion would with done so i think they are important and i think a certain level of that is think she may well be back with that weight and i think this may be a more today there for many societies to not want to be back where we were and perhaps if you were to do come in as your guests were saying i suspect that a significant proportion of the society would just want to do exactly that i things as early as theyre told they need to be doing those so. You think people will be prepared to go through all this again i mean there are societies where of course you know brazil 25000 new cases a day that having that in europe you think theyll go through this again. Well again if the situation is of such kind that fear thinks hold and theres lots of anxiety when people are demanding for strong measures now i do want to come back to one thing we did learn quite a few things through this 1st lockdown and i do think we may be all of this they gather but i hope that we will have more targeted or segments of policy going into a potential 2nd lockdown we need to do much more to protect the elderly and those with low immunity because as we know in fact belgium this morning releases numbers on the fact that 2 thirds of it related thats were actually people never really care homes and youll see this replicated around the world so much more has been on that front and on the economic and social psychological consequences predominately fall on the shoulders of younger generations or young parents or hers are still or School Going Children so more needs to be done to support them also so i think theres a we do need and i see our own modeling that of my colleagues in the mighty its pretty clear that we do need to be more tailor made in policy robin a one size fits all jeff what have you learnt of how people have responded in the states a very fragmented approach to dealing with the coronavirus that of course. Yanna and of course thats putting it quite politely a very fragmented approach and i think the reality is that certainly among the epidemiologists in the Scientific Community its very very clear that the various social restrictions social distancing physical distancing lockdowns etc have been extraordinarily effective and depressing the spread of the virus that being said to many many individuals they are experiencing at least from their own perception more pain from the economic slowdown from the loss of jobs from the loss of movement than they are perhaps theyre not seeing the consequences of this around them and i think that thats a really really important dynamic and when we talk about additional waves this virus and even the potential for a resurgence as were seeing in some parts of the United States of states that have open prematurely certain you know kinds of interactions that have a lot of potential to spread this virus. Simply with the lifting of these social and physical distancing measures so itll be really really important for policymakers in the United States as well as globally to really look at the disproportionate impact of these control measures who is experiencing outsized pain as a result of not being able to leave not being able to go to work because addressing that is going to be critically important in maintaining momentum and maintaining them and as these social distancing measures need to be implemented in and withdrawn and reimplemented in withdrawn and as we kind of go through this dance until there is more viable vaccine or pharmaceutical strategy to stopping the pandemic. Is not something you we look at in this part of the world in the middle east when youre looking at the effect of the virus on different types of population of course either of people who rely on it rely on working day to day to to eat so they call the lock down for long periods of time coming. That is absolutely true in this but specific parts that were in the news then the gun 3 jhon many people who are consistently fall into this category the vast majority are people who are on the one hand of the income out employed and will continue to hurt in some income getting those difficult periods of perhaps worst affected was smaller businesses what im able to. Death norman hours and they may have benefits most of all make pain but not necessarily at the economic spectrum of. Society as i see it here in the gulf region from my day to day work and interaction with various friends and so on contacts i know not by far everyone has gone to the point now where obviously a large extent fed up and would quite like to go back to something that is employing normality however dont also very mindful that doing this too quickly could backfire and they could find themselves back on often square. So i think most people have accepted a principle of a stage. With gauging any increased activity will always the knowledge that the distinctions may be about broken may be put back in again if needed i think post it at the majority of the population have reached this understanding and are willing to pay that cost as long as they can see light in the at the time and i think this is very important and again some of the points made about targeting any return of the distinctions i think this is a this was an experience for most of us and i dont think the authority is of any different and i think that in the future waves there may well be adjustments to our distinctions would be applied and what sections of the society would need more protection than outputs and various policies to protect our economic interests and ensure peoples compliance in the long. I think all these things will have to be looked at and hopefully modified as needed Going Forward i mean your new annual dr on ronnie there mentioned the need to see light at the end of the tunnel might we be seeing that in europe though it seems to be getting away with it its only a month now since it started lifting lockdown restrictions no major spikes. Might we be getting away with it and is it happy its that weve now formed that are helping us this is helping europe to contain it new habits i mean you know. There indeed are some light at the end of the tunnel in the very near term reseed borders within the european complex opening up people are hoping to still have some seized of tourism so. This month italys already open well the 15th many of the european nations open up spain opens up on the thoughts of july for tourism so theres some a short term optimism but the bad news however his colleagues at Cambridge Public Health england yesterday came out with the numbers the democratization rate the same as are the rate of an contagion if you will is starting to creep back up over what in some parts of the country and england and so that is not in immediate concern if you will but if that continues that will the press i think that the light at the end of tunnel the real light at the end of the tunnel and it and im speaking here from oxford is our Vaccine Group is is is making Good Progress on these trials for a vaccine and that in combination with astra zeneca who are now preparing a productive capacity to hopefully be able to produce millions of vaccine files by october so you will see a lot of the senior folks in that group and astra zeneca coming out positively and hopefully they are right so i think the real light at the tunnel is that there may be that theres a number of vaccine trials and going in there looking promising and hopefully bio tumor to resume of the year meraki is the almost we will be able to have very swiftly moved to recess and that will be the acolyte of the tunnel but i think as our colleagues as i dont own this interview there are some clearly some definite bumps along the road and we should we should also not forget we may be talking here about the potential the 2nd lockdown if you want to brazil india another place that around the world theyre right in the midst of the 1st wave so this is very much still still a Global Pandemic going around the globe all right jeff have you noticed that behave. If you will change is that people have to make in terms of washing their hands wearing face masks social distancing is that sinking in isnt that helping control the spread in this and that people are remembering to do these things yes as you mentioned previously you know that its very even response throughout the United States but in general we do see you know the wearing of masks in a way that was socially just very very unprecedented as opposed to parts of asia where its more normative you go into the Grocery Store now its least where i live in connecticut youre seeing most of the people if not all of them Wearing Masks doing their best to keep some degree of social distancing and doing everything they can now how long this persists and how long we can keep up this momentum is this something thats ingrained or permanently are we going to see 5 years from now and cold and flu season more people Wearing Masks things like that that remains to be seen but i think there are definitely been a number of social norms that have been changed for the most part although it is worth noting and important to note that there are also clusters within various states and within various communities that are really outright refusing pushing back very much why should i have to wear a mask kind of things like that and it just shows that while you know were making a lot of progress in terms of normalizing what we have to do in tell you know we reach that light at the end of the tunnel some distance away theres still a lot of folks who are not buying into that not feeling a part of that were feeling that theyre sacrificing too much of their freedoms and its very important that we remain. Sensitive to that and adjust our messaging and adjust our approaches to try to reach folks to make this is as universal as possible for everyones wellbeing ok dr. Possible vaccine notwithstanding how long are we going to have this period of of maybe peaks and troughs in the corona virus before it before disappears or becomes something that we just live with on a smaller scale. Ana i dont think anyone can really give you an answer to this question without any Game Changing the vaccine or the vaccines this is likely to keep coming and going to the majority of the population on this earth. And that could take years if we have interfered in physical distancing going to other interventions if we adopted the wild then obviously. And circuit around the globe much quicker what are the at a much much heavier price in terms of human health and deaths and suffering than economy and so forth so the current approach is not sustainable we cant keep doing this but. If we dont come up with a game changer vaccine as bendis could go on for years and years if i may also go back to the point about Behavioral Changes if you allow me i think i would be entirely with you guessed about what extent people would want to comply but obviously in some societies including Southeast Asia and the middle east. Peace of also taken some black that steps to push behavior in certain directions so where i live for example wearing a mosque is its mandatory by all i cant walk into a Grocery Store and not wear a mosque i can walk into a Grocery Store and not. At the entrance i cant you walk into any store without showing my own act that shows that i have not been tested positive not have i been suspected of being hostile so that might be hey that pushes everyones behavior towards complying with those measures. And obviously the expense of acceptance and the extent of even at willingness our appetite but ive lining such interventions with benny quite naturally from one place to another but in places where these things have law. Behavior. Changes as wet weather with all this the behavior would continue should you take those man to the. Implementation of this away. Question if i could also just take a few seconds by the way to