Libyas war after is forced into a retreat an important advice near the capital tripoli is back in the hands of the u. N. Recognize government will this prolonged the civil war or kick start talks between the warring factions this is inside story. Hello welcome to the program. Told the world hes the only man who can bring stability back to libya a wall of launched a military offensive last year to take control d of the capital from the un recognized government in tripoli but his forces have suffered a series of setbacks in the latest have to his forces lost control of the headquarters of his offensive. Base southwest of tripoli troops are backing the government in tripoli say theyve destroyed weapons provided by russia and the United Arab Emirates and theyve since retaken 2 towns close to the base while Prime Minister fire seraj hailed the victory he warns the battle is far from over after a spokesman downplayed the last saying that always planned to leave the base. A minute yet this move was not made in the spur of the moment it was planned for months weve been pulling out Strategic Equipment and heavy military gear from the brakes 3 months ago we pulled out the jet fighters and their ammunition and spear parts only yesterday orders were given for personnel to withdraw under oic over the withdrawal was successful and weve moved the personnel and all the weaponry and ammunition and we have our own planes and we will recapture the air base of aljazeera as mahmud hed reports from tripoli. The balance of power has been recently changing in favor of forces loyal to the internationally recognized a government of national accord. Thanks partly to the air force namely his drawings that have been playing a crucial and vital role in this conflict and meanwhile half the us forces have been losing momentum especially after the last control of civil strategic locations in the west of libya including. And also along with other strategic cities and towns along the western coast now. Is a very strategic and it was under have to those forces control for the past 40 years and i have in fact after all planes were taken off from that abs to target Government Forces locations in many areas in western libya and by losing get half those forces now no longer has any air bases in the west of libya meanwhile the Government Forces say that they moved on other towns and cities in the Western Mountain and they can now focus on half those forces attacks in southern tripoli they say that after the seized a would. They have eliminated the threat coming from that air base and they can now focus on moving on top of warner city the major and stronghold of half the us forces in the worst of libya. Mahmoud at the head aljazeera for inside a story tripoli Government Forces have been making significant gains in recent weeks theyve retaken several towns and cities along libyas western coast and as we mentioned took control of our base on monday this allows them to push towards to huna south of tripoli the city is have to last stronghold in the west but his forces still control much of Eastern Libya where the Oil Terminals are located as well as the south and the city of sirte. Lets bring in our guests in london peter millet a former British Ambassador to libya in San Antonio Texas man saw here is a professor of politics at the university of texas in san antonio and in the future in new jersey jason pak a founder of Libya Analysis a Libyan Affairs think tank welcome to you all gentlemen ill start with you peter how significant is the loss of control of this air base to have to as ambitions to control all of libya. I think this is a significant moment but we shouldnt overestimate it it is a significant loss of an air base as your correspondent has said its the main is the only air base that he had in the west of libya and it is a serious withdrawal but i think it raises a lot of significant questions what does withdrawal mean. Will it mean a genuine cease fire kicks in and will it mean a commitment to a political process i dont think we should assume that the war is over there is a lot of weapons around on both sides and im not convinced that have to as political ambitions have been ended by any means by what has happened yesterday and now were here so i think what id be looking. For is a strong voice now from the International Community and from libyans as a whole that they now want a political process to kick in starting with a genuine cease fire and then the un to take the lead again in trying to bring all the different parties together a very wide range of stakeholders and to learn the lessons of the past of trying to do deals between small groups of people without and excluding why do groups should stakeholders so an opportunity certainly but it has to be exploded quickly. Sort you think therefore may reevaluated ambitions to control all of libya. No ari dont think so and i think youre read too much into it this is war and you know when you win a new sometimes and but dont forget true that after 7 true pretty is still controls what wasnt sent to west and bia and war important you know is the pentagon libyas defense and disassemble arjen the international you know this government is it and you want turks and militias and mercenaries from syria i mean you have to take is into account more important more important middlemen even you would have to go to other this is a find it might say it might it might seem a kid that the west does not want and i think this is good you know but unfortunately youre talking about there is no sure now his government think nothing of the catastrophe that libya spacy is sort of the abbas of that you know but it is a National Government that your National Order that has that is a sponsible was going on in the west especially be visible during the Libyan Affairs that was stopped on shipment from going to libya simply deeper and deeper and deeper into a ball of chaos and and that is that theres no end this cycle and you know this jason man saw suggests libya sinking into a whole of chaos but does this mean that half is going to have to think again about plans to control of libya most certainly. To stress ambassador millets point this is a combination of a longer term process when the war for tripoli began on april 4th 2019 general have to hope to score a quick victory aided by his russian amorality egyptian and french supporters his offensive start. They had certain advantages then their last 30 and in the summer of 2019 but they still had other advantages they had the majority of foreign armies coming in to support them and they had the hope that maybe trump could be flipped whats happened since december 21000. 00 is that the turks signed an m. O. You for a maritime exclusive zone and theyve entirely tipped the balance of power after use to have the aerial dominance and now hes lost that aerial dominance turkish drones have entirely flipped who controls the skies over tripolitania. As a result 1st some on and some brought to were lost in april and now there was not any fighting at what t. A gradually the l. And i was forced to withdraw because they lost the ability to operate over the skies yesterday they withdrew their lesson tanny aligned groups and now they have no air base in western libya the battle for tripoli is over yes the 2nd libyan civil war continues but half stars ability to claim that you might eventually take tripoli is a hollow reed its done were going to see a internet scene war with in the east maybe to oust huffed are maybe to see a partition of libya with our another l n a commander ruling just the east so as the ambassador said this is a very significant shift and we need to see how the internationals are going to reposition their support might the egyptians or and morality say we support the l n a but we want to replace our might have to i want to double down on chart who not in which case you can have egg on his face and you lose a start were not its a very significant shift that were seeing ok well come back to turkey in a moment but pizza 1st of all it is far from over for half dot hes got control of much of much of the east of libya and parts of the west hes got the oil hes blocking the export of oil hes got plenty of options still hasnt. I dont think he has so many military options anymore i think without that air base and with the loss of gary and as well. I think his as jason has said the his ability to take tripoli which was never very strong. Has or has disappeared he has to now or withdraw it sufficiently for them to be a political process to open up he that the tribes the militias and others and i have to say that and criticizing have to are does not mean that i am in any way supportive of the militias the militias in tripoli are bad people they have to be removed from the equation as well but none of that can happen without a process which looks at a new political future resolves the military issues removes the militias and puts in place economic reform as well those 3 factors which were not part of the 2015 agreement 2015 political agreement was only political it didnt have military and security stakeholders it didnt have economic stakeholders it didnt even include the tribes which is a major mistake more stakeholders have to be involved in an integrated Political Economic and Security Solution and approach for the new libya ok so let me ask you about turkey jason touched on that just before long term long term Strategic Interests for to turkey in libya because of the deal to split up to explore gas reserves possibly in the mediterranean will the backers of half task forces the usa and france want to be in the fight for as long as turkey is now clearly going to be involved in libya well they have the stomach to go the distance i think i think. I think they will in fact be more involved down because specially greets the greeks are not unless youre told disagreement and even not know nor are you salute is worse for you turkey is supposed to be sharing some turtle or waters and fishing rights and or a little exploration i mean im sorry to say this you know but i think youll do too much into this this is the. Best maybe maybe i have to right now as a client and i dont see if this should be to read we can live in the east too much you know what youre up to ultimately as here is the guns you know and im a servant is a bit of a man he has some support but isnt much support in the east and i dont know too much i mean the middle position before the feel of returning to 2 minutes youre all but the problem let me tell you in libyas and that is that when i see it on the. Physically this is it isnt time at that time and have to act as the only alternative right now for to to to maintain security in peace that counter no dependably militias the militias give away libya and ultimately the vicious other ones and then buses pipes right i mean i dont disturb exactly where hes coming from but you have the government of National Court which is recognizing his ability to totally buy diminishes and this is this is the big problem isnt going to go away the mission is not going to say tomorrow all its over up and it is going to say just a no thank you took her to depend on talk of goodwill as the turkey basically has a free reign to do what it once and it jason how much will. Depend on what turkeys view ace as the way they move forward with this i want to sort of influence to you havent well this is a very important point so russia has very limited power over the g n a and even less over western libya hes not even the most. Figurehead in his coalition thats of course the interior minister. Who has not only reformed the quote unquote military and connected the different militias together but he maintains personally the relationship with the turks and with the usa and other backers to weave together various points that the ambassador and the professor have made the influence of the turks is of course malicious they have mind goals for Oil Exploration in violation of International Agreements they threaten the very legitimate greek and cypriot exclusive maritime zones and theyre going to want their pound of flesh for winning in libya for example the repayment of a lot of back payments on Construction Contracts but as the ambassador pointed out the reason that this war for tripoli started in the 2nd libyan civil war continues is that the skyrocket really it was flawed it didnt address the economic and tried ball and structural drivers of the conflict and nothing that has happened here to for has we need to deal with the Central Bank Issues smuggling subsidies and the root economic causes of this war there was never going to be a military solution and have to show that a military solution cannot work no one actor can conquer libya so so raw. And all the militias in libya cant conquer it easterners would never let the west become part therefore of course some kind of political and economic reform process is now going need to happen peter could it be the case that after is going to be persuaded to take control just of the eastern part of libya that they idea of a any sort of unified libya is so far in the distance. Could just have the east. Well people often suggested a partition of the country but i think its not its not an easy solution by any means and it i dont believe its a solution to the majority of libyans want not least because much of the oil comes from the south through the east and west how would you share out the economic benefits of the Oil Production i do think more decentralization is a better solution so you have very limited powers at the center so you do have a single identity for the country but then you devolve budgets and responsibility and i think that might work either to regions or to towns or to municipalities but i dont think partition is something that the International Community or even libyans should in visit or think might be a solution to their problems. Do you think now is the time that after can be persuaded to sit down and talk now that hes on no its not all over is not necessary on the back or is this the time to speak to him and tell him to sit down and talk. You know talking to each other personally i just talk to my son see the scene where should you know and i do it indeed consider that enthusiastic i want to reduce a sudden rush and because you know brush up on it i dont think i think spencer trusts the trust is no longer there anymore to watch all of these other westwards are there by and by murder degrees so did you talk to him before or after he lost control of this case after going to before the valley does control just now yeah with the group here. In frederick in full agreement of 101 are not was there but 2nd it has advanced yeah and also ultimate alternately ultimately i looked around and its it doesnt situation all that under. That its just a nick and i know i was telling precisely of that issue and he knows about this issue but at bernies are dead in the sense that doesnt want to give up he does it doesnt give obesity and i think he will keep on it will keep on growing and this this in this not so good hearted goodness nobody should negotiate with. The problem i mean this you want to talk with the militias and i think nobody you know nobody was to do that that is nobody even wants to do that and unfortunately the worst this is the major problem is that the west is themselves it is so much of the most of the. Between and this is the way its so much animosity that nobodys going to take up only to stop the dishes jason bond saw paints a depressing picture that theres nobody for have to speak to we do have in europe france and italy for example on different sides of this where do we go to if we want money if we want to have taught to sit down and talk who does it alter it. Well thats right after the show that psychologically he doesnt want to compromise when he was in russia in january to sign a quote unquote cease fire which was going to do anything he still walked away without signing it he proclaims that hes winning even when hes losing and he refuses to admit defeat when its handed to him in fact we can see hes a lot like other neo populist want to be dictators who for example are unwilling to admit that they got the coronavirus wrong and are unwilling to admit when things look bad in the economy weve seen that as a trump throughout the world recently however fortunately huff there doesnt really matter that much anymore if the russians and moralities and egyptians could agree on a candidate to replace him within the l n a be it up to reza can us who are it or be a more minor office start and they could have the support of the tribes thats fun after sons could be sidelined and the l n a could exist as an institution which could have talks done without half tar and the key thing here is its a time for the u. S. U. K. And other neutral players to reengage of course italy and france as you mentioned are on opposite sides but if neutral players could bring italy and france as well as the key backers of the 2 sides i. E. Turkey on the one side and that u. A. E. On the other to say hey this mutually hurting stalemate is coming into being the jenny cant all of a sudden take Eastern Libya that sense of all we have the mutually heard exterminate and it doesnt benefit anyone for the war to continue maybe now finally will dawn on the key backers of the coalitions wow it would actually behoove us to talk sense into our clients and since were the patterns we can use our support to leverage a deal to happen i dont see that materializing without us or u. K. Or un kind of engagement from the level of adults getting the children in the room and saying this fire. It is no longer going to be worth throwing sand in your opponents eyes why dont we for the best of everyone try to have a mature solution ok peter do you think given how important stability of libya is to the European Union in terms of its awash with weapons its a migrant jumping off point is there a chance that the e. U. By now sees this opportunity to try and bring the 2 parts together given that