Aljazeera bringing the news and Current Affairs that matter to. Aljazeera. Can the coronavirus curve be flattened some countries say their fast responses managed to slow the pandemic but the disease is still spreading so what will it take to control it this is inside story. Hello and welcome to the program im peter dobby now the number of people infected by courbet 19 is more than 1000000 globally the number who have died is almost 60000 the United States currently has the highest number of infections italy the biggest number of deaths yet some countries appear to be succeeding at flattening the curve the number of new cases each day appears to be falling in nations such as taiwan canada south korea and iceland theyve all shown that the rate of infections can be slowed down the u. S. Which has been criticized for a slow and ineffective response seems to have now become the main center of the pandemic but the u. S. President all trump says he has just the man to help tackle the crisis his Senior Adviser and son in law jared cushion or is leading the Coronavirus Task force so how have some countries managed to control the rate of infections and deaths and can others italy and spain bring theirs down to. Ok lets get going lets bring in our guests today in p. And jens are in italy we have gloria tell yani shes an Infectious Disease doctor and member of the covert 1000 task force of the italian Civil Protection system in singapore we have 2 thompson hes a Senior Research fellow at the National University of singapore and formerly a u. S. Department of defense official and from london we have dr anie sparrow she is an emergency and Critical Care physician welcome to you all gloria tawny and he coming to you 1st which countries are flattening the curve more than other countries and how are they doing it well probably the best one has been korea and followed by china and probably the best way to flat curve is to force people to say hole in the most serious most convincing most the most. Persuading ray because the people contacts between people. Between and interacted and has 2 carrier people is that raid the barriers in use is just tread all over the counter is all over the job graphic reality is there for this is the best and probably at the moment the the unique way to control the spreading of the virus through thomson and singapore it seems that there are huge variations country to Country Region to region does it come down to the initial infection rates that spike that weve seen on the graph for so many Different Countries or how governments respond to that. Well certainly its how dr tweeny referred to the social distancing or separating of people as is probably the most important factor in how governments encourage their populations to stay home and practice social distancing as well as identifying and isolating high risk individuals i think is critical and here in singapore of course that weve Just Announced that will go for a month long theyre calling it a Circuit Breaker other countries might call it a lockdown but essentially its an extreme form of social distancing so were no longer leaving the house schools work is all being done by remote so so i think thats going to be critical and in a country like singapore you can do that very effectively its much more difficult say in the United States where individual freedoms are much more important and the government has much Less Authority to prevent people from from leaving their homes its much more difficult to enforce that in the u. S. So yes were going to see wide variation between the capacity of different states to enforce that social distancing any sparrow in london how long until britain is in a position to say yes we all flattening the curve when it is had to say mean in most countries weve seen this take the. Good guys of dont sit back and seem to take a 10 to 12 weeks and but when you think about it can gradually ignite with steam this ring of ok now is it wrapped and then you know that that eruption can build out to be a series of weeks and then we finally can see if that means were just now beginning to see perhaps in italy. And the us in the u. K. Is still very much on the upward of that and and i think its going to be another few weeks you know the next week the going to be pretty bad and then after that we may see it read never again are its very had to to say exactly we may need to do. It in also in terms instead breaking through thomson in singapore staying with that idea of circuit breaking is there another variable because i think everyone would be agreed if they said would be agreed with if they said singapore has done a very good job but there is another variable here and its honesty isnt it because people are now asking questions about the truth of what may or may not have happened in china. Well certainly in china the political overlay on everything including Public Health has resulted in statistics being manipulated to suit political objectives here in singapore obviously its quite different the singapore government has taken a very comprehensive approach to the epidemic by certainly by being transparent and by producing a fair amount of information about each each case and how that each case is linked to the other theyve also done extensive Contact Tracing not just by help authorities but by the police and theyve done a lot of very very effective very clear concise public messaging from the Prime Minister on down so i mean were very fortunate to have excellent governance here but its that really all of government approach that i think has served singapore quite well but i mean its also worth noting that singapore went from 100 cases to 1000 cases in a month even with all of these. All these undertakings so i think its an extreme challenge and thats partly because of the difficulties of capturing cases when theyre asymptomatic and still potentially spreading so everyone in singapore supposed to be taking your temperature before you enter a building i take my temperature twice a day and submit it to a database so the monitoring is extensive but its very difficult to track those asymptomatic spreaders and thats where the circuit breaking and social distancing becomes such a critical critical option gloria. Its really the authorities there who you are in a position yet to start doing what drew was talking about to flatten the cove check peoples temperatures twice a day if they decide thats the best way forward because this is not about the rate of infection this is about moderating the flow of infected people going through the Health Care System so the Health Care System doesnt get even more stressed compared to where it is as if no. I dont believe that. Controlling the temperature twice a day will help or much to control the the number of infected people because that now we now that we performed and bought is testing to many people we. Really have the evidence that the majority of those who is are positive were totally symptomatic and if its. Absolutely true mainly for Young Children or young adults but also for some adults who was tetum on tain a totally healthy condition but that they are they have been infected therefore the most important measures should be again to. Reinforce the political. Teaching of old people to wash their hands to take care of things breading new infections by Wearing Masks the social distance which is much more physical distance than social one and stay home for the most of the time any sparrow in london staying with that crucial idea of Antibody Testing thats not the same as coming up with a vaccine or vaccine testing correct me if ive got this right or wrong Antibody Testing means you test someone and if it comes back positive or negative that means they have got immunity for whatever reason or they have not therefore that person is safe so they can encounter the virus again and they wont succumb to it again. Thats only what we think however that there are 2 important antibodies that need to be descending at the 1st anybody i. G. M. Can appear within a week 5 or 6 days of being infected and that that goes up in the end it be an appearance of i d g n d burton i. G. G. That is indicative of immunity and that the cancer pierre about 56. 00 weeks even had be infection and thats what we used to indicate immunity our network is going to get hold a conversation and chatter about nudity passports and immunity to get tickets even as evidence that you have had invention and that you are immune then not 100 percent you know that in other diseases we do see that not not you know not everybody actually mounts an antibody response that can defend another bank is that it is it is a matter of immunity and youre right its not the same as a vaccine drew thompson in singapore also having to talk i guess as well about some of the modeling thats out there some of the modeling that is good and accurate and some of it that is not because when it comes to this idea of herd immunity flattening the curve perhaps theres a thing called an r nort number a rought number and see if your roth number is 10 if my roth number was 10 that means i could infect 10 people the 1st 10 people that i met so in a Perfect World from a statistical point of view you want to get that number less than one statistically i would infect less than one person every 24 hours how did different governments around the globe deal with that part of what theyre trying to do. So i mean i will defer to the medical experts and the statistics experts and the epidemiologists. Transmissibility and the are not figures but again i think it really comes down to the political choices that leaders around the world have to make about enabling their economies to continue to partner along as best they can under the circumstances which means allowing a certain amount of commerce to continue a certain number of people to continue to provide essential Services Manufacturing transportation of course Health Care Food these are critical Critical Services that need to continue but also other key Business Activities that sustain an economy and could be Energy Production as well or auto repair or manufacturing so in that respect its really a political decision about whether you value the health risk of transmission between one person and multiple others or or what you emphasize keeping them at home obviously for some folks there are opportunities to increase your social distancing but still be productive so i for one havent left my house in a week and i have been doing all of my work over just like this over skype and zoom in and we chat and whats up so that i can continue to do my work all of my classes that i teach with all of my students now are online so so thats one way that we can still you know continue to function but at the same time reduce the transmission and again each country is going to have their own formula for that. Glorie attorney ernie in italy were also having to accept another reality when it comes to getting this curve not a spiky getting it flattened out we have to deal with variables which present themselves as accepting a trend based on trends plural because Johns Hopkins their their wonderful device their tracker today making the point that the us spain germany and italy are reporting each 2000 new cases per day thats an astonishing figure and its difficult to see how quickly that will go from being a spike or even a 2nd spike to that kerr flattening out. Well if were if we look at the. And then influenza pandemic of the 1918 we we can imagine that there are many many a burst of infection will reappear after the 1st one nevertheless now we are much more prepared to control the occurrence of an epidemic in even small areas and larger areas. What is important to remember is that we dont really know how many persons by are infected by any one who is tested and recognized therefore we really dont know how many persons are immune. And 1st of all testing immunity of the as many people as possible would be helpful to understand this figure secondly in some regions of the not not easily the governors are thinking of testing people and gradually alloying them to restart working if there are the demonstrated to be immune which is an intelligent. Political decision because its how those to restart the economic. The economy clo of the kountry of the region and without. Without putting anyone in this in danger. Any sparrow in london the c. D. C. Today on his website saying that they learned lessons from the h one n one pandemic back in 2009 their lessons basically boil down to social distancing or social isolation so when the weather is good in europe as it is this weekend right now and people are going to the parks people are cycling people are taking the dogs for the walk theyre having a barbecue on the river thames what goes through your mind at that point i guess it is disturbing and ive been out today too watching all of that and its concerning because its easy to get lax and to think its ok its coming down in norfolk to me where is beautiful. And we know that that the way this does know a. Drop in these type of convictions and that we can get complacent i mean as you just pointed out theres a huge increase every day in there in europe. You know italy is the epicenter but spain and u. K. Are france we are all seen these massively increase in victims of. America is a disaster course and its only going to get were there as well and so this is where we are you know we are now considering. Mages like masks the c. D. C. Just put out new guidance to to consider that we should have Community Mask wherein and that is it can be very useful if you consider that. Most of this thread is of course rethink your best bet in order still done by people who are symptomatic and cockiness needy and therefore if you put a mask on those people then you stop the source if the if those who are an infected wear masks or bandannas or made you know scabs and so what that does is it actually stuck to like that you touching your nose in your mouth over time its a physical barrier and that it probably goes you know quite a long way when you put those 2 pieces together towards you know reducing transmission and you know we need to answer ad or the major that we can think on your sexual desire to be in the said breaking the use of masks the need to edit may just like ive talked about before like to be to give back seniors or pandemic protectors the power to protect and to be able to reduce and be very few breaks invented kind of stagger me and know the curves ok drew thompson in singapore on that idea of staggering the curve people like you i think im right in saying this you call it a risk stratification somebody someplace has to decide when youve got a big enough percentage of the population who are immune or theyve had the vaccine therefore theyre immune when do you allow them to go back to work at what point does that flatten curve globally say yes certain people can go back to work because the Economic Impact is so huge we can stop say a global recession tipping into being a global depression so again itll be different for Different Countries and i think thats really important to remember theres no theres no one size fits all solution for country again like singapore which is highly dependent on Foreign TradeInternational Trade one of the indicators to watch for is one flight begin to resume and people are permitted to travel or perhaps travel without without having to undergo a quarantine when they arrive somewhere so that those will be indications that. Curva sufficiently flattened what that means in terms of the numbers of cases or or or individuals being infected thats going to be different in different places in a large country like china or the United States that number might be larger on a per capita but the question is on a per capita basis what does it mean also look allergies will matter so i think some countries are going to be under much more pressure to open up to foreign travel sooner like singapore china in particular want to start opening up as well because their economy is highly dependent on trade as well so other countries may be less so motivated and will seek to protect their population from extra no or what they call imported cases so again theres no good answer and i think each country will have to make its own choice and thats the burden on our political leaders gloria this is clearly something were involved in for the long haul if you will how do you flatten the curve for more than 2 weeks how do you flatten it for 3 months or 6 months. Well since the problem is always the same we dont know who is carrying in their throat or moles or mouth and there seem to magic probably the best would be to stop it to convince people to wear masks for longer then we are thinking about and now we are figuring that in few weeks that we we can restart our life in the way we use we were used to do but probably does this not. The case and so if all we all wear a mask apart from those who are definitely recook night is as. All the other people if they dont take. Of clear evidence of their immunity if all our the people where masks and in the case of masks to be where it is simply need the mask who is needed is there a surgical one that is not a need for more filtering ones because if all wear mask any one is protected from the other because i cannot spread the virus and no one can spread the virus ok so the most basic mask i guess what were seeing is the person the most basic mask becomes a symbol that becomes emblematic of social responsibility where heading towards that the end the program and the sparrow in london so technically politically socially this is very difficult to achieve because we all want to get to that flattened curve out of those 3 things the technicalities the politics and the social distancing for president s and Prime Ministers which one is the easiest to achieve with a total byzantine is that easiest and many ways of saving the. Do that i think you dont mean cannot be masked and very easy and maggi then the question of unity in rich area lends itself to all sorts of concerns once we bring the immunity then we start to use that as our. Lenders so to corruption bribery exploitation who get started in italy their government test everybody in that respect has to get married but then you can see how it can then become a passport back to work where thats problematic in many ways because there are a lot of people who men are going to cortez you may remember you know cetera meanwhile i think we have to be. You know as you pointed out that we are only this good at the numbers that we have and at that moment you know china is going to advance they did the epidemic in the red back then catch up there will be you know treatments available get trying is going to be bringing out very shortly and in september when the when does he didnt begins to start again who say he didnt now be the one who that seems to her rights or i think you know in the longer term there are a lot of things that might also to something appear. That theyre going to become theyre trying so ok very briefly last word to you drew thompson in singapore keep it brief please weve got 20 seconds left what were talking about here is coherent unified leadership is there one leader around the world for you whos doing that clearly one of the casualties of hope it has been Global Leadership there has not been any one leader rising to the fore that neither she nor president trav certainly not the w. H. O. Or the United Nations system so so this is really a new era of antiglobalization if you will where each country is on its own it all comes down to that social distancing social isolation thank you all very much has been a thought provoking discussion thank you to i guess they were gloria tell me i need to thomson and talk to an experiment thank you to for your company you can see the show again via the web site aljazeera dot com or for more discussion to check out our Facebook Page thats facebook dot com forward slash rage inside story you can keep the conversation going on twitter at a. J. Inside story you can tweet me at peter w one for me peter toby and the team here in the heart thanks for watching we will do it all again at the usual times tomorrow. 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