Mogadishu suffers its worst attack in the years raising a question mark over transition plans are on groups making a comeback will National Institutions be able to take on more responsibility in 2020 this is inside story. Hello welcome to the show im sam is a than nearly 80 people were killed on saturday in the worst bomb attack in the somali capital in 2 years president mohammed of the law he has condemned it as he nears acts of terror hes blaming it on. The armed group was forced out of mogadishu in 2011 but still controls large parts in the southwest of the country the United States has intensified as strikes the African Union has long been on the offensive in somalia but that hasnt stopped the shabaab from carrying out deadly attacks there and in neighboring kenya and uganda this latest one has raised concerns about whether somalias forces are capable of maintaining security as African Union troops begin to withdraw well talk to our guests shortly but 1st this report from how to. Cheering morning rush as many people going to work and University Students heading to campus the bombs exploded at a security checkpoint by many coming into mogadishu. A truck loaded with explosives was detonated at a busy checkpoint the explosion led to many deaths and injuries most of those died here students who were going to the schools and universities. This explosion is like the one in the junction back in 2007 just a few steps away from where i am. Officials believe the target was a building next to the checkpoint by Government Troops the group was pushed out of mogadishu several years ago but is still targets high profile areas such as checkpoints and hotels. Also carried out attacks in neighboring kenya and uganda. Its trying to stop attacks like this from happening. Saturdays tragedy has become a Lesson Learned since the country is in a state of who we need to be vigilant against terror attacks since the primary goal of the terrorists is to cause maximum damage to everybody. Not only targeting those who work for the government but the entire population for those caught up in the blast and those who lost family members and loved ones thats a little comfort. Algis there. Lets bring our gas into the show then we have joining us here in doha in the studio is is the last man an assistant professor at the university of leicester and author of media and the somali conflict mohammed had more gay is former head of Strategic Communications for the Somali Government he joins us from mogadishu jamal smile is a somali journalist who joins us from london welcome to all of you folks and start with it ill here in the studio so does the bombing show that somalis government small is government has failed already failed to even control the capital. Its a very difficult situation sami on one hand you have a an insurgency thats reinventing itself and they have been driven away from many parts of that they controlled previously in south south and central somalia they used to have a stronghold in mogadishu they no longer do the same with you know several key cities in South Central somalia but whats happened whats happening here is a number of key issues that have sort of come together on one hand you have a government who doesnt have the sophisticated arms to actually be it to have a more sophisticated warfare with against them on one hand because of the the weapons and barker on the other hand you have a very flexible and immobile insurgency while shabaab doesnt have a base particularly they literally are in the woods and they can quickly mobilize themselves to to organize attacks and things like that and then i think the bigger problem here is that the public neutrality so you have a public that thinks this is a fight between the Somali Government on one hand and al shabaab on the other hand and so they dont realize that in fact they are the biggest sufferers when it comes to these attacks and weve mentioned in your headline introduction that you know close to 100 people have died all of those are civilians including those that that that were from from International Community such as the 2 turkish engineers so i think where the government probably need to do a lot more work is creating Public Perception and creating an incentive for the public to feel that this is in their best interests to actually get out there anything security though. Its not just about crossing the Public Perception well yes but these things need to go hand in hand right because you actually i was not separate from the public they literally are coming in they they are staying in peoples houses they are creating these bombs and i. E. D. Attacks this assembling them within. Cities in place and they have people within the public that they can find support and hiding places from so i think these things need to happen in conjunction surprising then lets take the discussion if we may to jamal in london how much support. Does a group like al shabaab get from the public to carry out an attack like this its it would seem given that the casualties are civilians are people from the public students innocent people just going about their ordinary lives its quite shocking to think theyre operating assembling their stuff in the homes of of other civilians i mean it is true and i remember 10 years ago exactly 10 years ago a similar part happened and people were saying of shabab will be defeated al shabaab as we can but i dont buy this narrative that alshabaab has been weakened i think ill show up by still very strong they control large territories of southern and central samarra yes they have been pushed out of major cities but in villages and towns and rural areas the military this soldiers i still are strong they know what theyre good at look conventional army they dont face conventional armies but theyre good at guerrilla tactics so they are there they are very strong and i would say their supporters i would divide them into 3 types one. Young man who grew up within the ideology who genuinely believe in alshabaab and there are thousands of them and then you have much people who belong to minority clarus who for a generation were used and discriminated an outcast by the bigger clans who were liberated and al shabab rule who would not accept alshabaab bad and then you have big clients who are not happy with the government who feel badly treated by the government who are loyal to al shabaab when they have to be loyal to sew up about half support they are very strong militarily they control large parts of somalia and in fact even in will get additional they they collect taxes they do whatever they want literally so i dont buy this idea has been weakened they are right there extra let me if i may bring in mohamed youre a former Spokes Person of course or head of Strategic Communications for the Somali Government has the Somali Government i mean the it sounds like from talking to our guest in the show so far it sounds like the Somali Government has failed to heal some rifts really within Somali Society between clans at least and that is feeding support for a chabad. But sunny i think to be honest its not the best of time to analyze the governments efforts to add security when just slightly over 24 hours ago you could make a case for the government today i mean youre asking this question to 3 days ago given you holmes which most of the people would agree with me but then again theres the emotional aspect to this the adrenalin aspect to the desert anger and theres a supportive government failure every time theres an attack but then again thats what im sure ive always uses they usually i mean its a Terror Organization the mortars operandi which are organization is to see if i hear him and when is that a good time without the security performance of a government when is the appropriate time if not when you know civilian lives are put at stake. I mean exactly i mean this is a government thats up and theres a doctor in the right he put it this is a case that you see in government against alshabaab which is very wrong i mean the public have to take sides the public are making i mean are the biggest casualties look at yesterday look at 14 october 18th 17. 00 mission 10 years ago at the University StudentsGraduation Ceremony i mean look at all these i mean the thing is al shabaab is and i mean for the Somali Government you want to topple the Somali Government the people of the bank bystanders are security in this country will require sophistication tons of technology not all of that it would require a lot of preparation 1000 intelligence gathering so but some i mean i can jamie just theres a number of things that we need to identify 1st of all you know when you have a college like today like yesterday when you have a con its like the one that happened in october 2017 with scores of people dying obviously its going to look like the government has failed but i think we need to look at the larger picture on one hand if you look at the number of suicide attacks the number id bombs attack that used to happen this time 234 years ago it was on a regular basis i go to make this you at least 23 times a year for the last 10 years since ive been doing research there and one of the things that used to really really worry us is the. That these attacks were happening almost on a daily basis and weekly basis whereas now if you look at the spread between these colleges it shows that there are months in between you so you have this one thats happened yesterday before that it was you know could cut so theres a lot of compliments dont leave any case that shows the paper 4 years ago but is it is the thing the learning is that you hear a lot of it becoming bad only flee its not going to be at the level that is required to provide security let some of them are country lets allow muhammad to finish his thought come back him to to be to get to be took to be exact on in detail because it is a good point look at the entire november there was you know incident of the entire 12 others you know incident of attack it doesnt you know shabaab on holiday they dont they dont take us with breaks i mean every time a shabaab is preparing something is always planning its always in the movies always governing always want to do something but im going to assume that we had 60 days 90 days or. Under soon that all what guess what and then i mean you need to bear in mind its not just the law of armed thats going on in these kinds of carnage is youve got a number of people that benefit from the status quo youve got aggravate you know aggrieved Business People youve got the International Community youve got all kinds of shady people that benefit from the state school and so therefore having peace and stability in somalia is not going to be at the best interest of many people including al shabaab all right let me bring jamal and ask the question does the scale and location of your bombing suggest at least some degree of info trace in the state through the security forces. You know there is the from of the an infiltration were being told that they were targeting these turkish. Engineers though we cannot confirm that but i would say the government has felt if 100 people were killed who would you blame yes i have been accused they were expected this is what they do on a regular basis. And if we are void the government and i mean telling the truth then i dont think there will be any solution the normal sort of procedure you hear when a parts like this happen is the government can do they send condolences and then they weigh the next up top and i would disagree with even though its not the government thats preventing suicide attacks i think al shabaab has changed its is trying to do they used to do and the sort of lets say scare up types but now they are going for the big attacks and i think i have listened to him for his or i wouldnt i wouldnt say the government has managed to prevent any of these attacks i think its al shabaab that has changed its strategy so i would repeat again the government has failed of somalia or i can see mohammed wants to come back in lets give you a chance to finish your thought the the later of some of the nature of al shabaab zaatar is that the shabaab by its very nature by its very composition is not conventional theyre weird and conventional warfare theres the arm of us theyre shapeless theyre form this and thats how they do the activities and not only does government any government in somalia today really struggle with catching up with preventing all but then having saved that that does not negate the fact that this government has tried to do a few things i mean for example anybody who is well vast of the geography of this country will tell you that there are significant inroads in security i mean even in movement of the Somali National army look at the bridges near mogadishu there are towns and villages that are very significant coming. Into the towns that have been taken their number of efforts we live in mogadishu as a city that has been taken i mean there are these city commerce all of our there is the biometrically destruction of the Somali National army all these that not been there im not saying that enough they cannot be enough its a work in progress lets give governments where the hardware are where they make some inroads but then again lets also blame the government for the govs and thats why i was telling you earlier on thats not the best time to analyze solve really objectively well the government has done with regards to security in the budget but to drop all of that prison for target a scheme of 81 people most of them story does the bombing also raise some question marks about the effectiveness of all those Foreign Forces and African Union forces in somalia i mean for me one of the big concerns i see is the lack of coordination amongst all of the people that are involved all of the agencies that are involved in the security and stability of somalia youve got the Smaller Government thats obviously taking the lead on this but then you also have number of you know western countries a number of middle Eastern Countries that are involved in training the police units and training the military personnel so the specialists the forces that have taken over the liberated cities that was mentioning earlier for example where then taken over and stabilized by small a force that was specially trained by the american or the British Military but on top of that you also have private security you also have a you know a number of. International agencies that are involved in Security Operations and what im seeing is a lot of activity and lack of coordination we need more effectiveness we need want to streamline and there are laws in the belief amongst some somalis that all these foreign agencies or forces are really looking out for their own National Interest rather than that of the Somali People is that what youre getting and i think there are a number of conflated interests here so you have on one hand the u. S. And western society and the western International Community that are largely operating on a policy of can. A moment and so its very much keeping things within the somali borders and trying as much as possible to contain it and that also is then in you know fueled by the fact that you have an arms embargo which means that the Somali Security forces only have a k 47 pts to fight when they actually need superior weaponry to fight an insurgency like on the other hand you have security personnel by private companies by private businesses and all of them obviously looking for their best looking out for their vested into this is why im pointing out to the fact that the government really doesnt they need to take leadership in stream now streamlining all of the Security Operations that are happening in somalia so that you can have a much more effective fact if approach 100. 00 do you think the what somali are you will be ready to take on more responsibility to see a drawdown of African Union forces and 2020 as was planned meant to go to 20 is just to solon i mean those just very ambitious. Very very ambitious keen to imagine the phosphates but then today greece a little bit and. Do you think this monogram is going to ask you to extend the store down is not going to happen well well i dont speak for the government no private enterprise or do you think was my question would have to say i mean. I think i think under some is there to stay for a little while and i dont think 2020 would be a time when there will be a complete or a draw complete draw down on this and but then there is aspect of correlation between the African Union forces and my National Army government and International Community ill give you the very list of examples is look at the statements i mean there is not even sense or a statement of opinion has a statement the un has a different statement even condolences even if in games when they make the Somali Government has a different statement so people who are not able to consolidate a basic statements Something Like this are we going to move all this our condolences