Transcripts For ALJAZ Inside Story 2019 Ep 252 20240714 : co

ALJAZ Inside Story 2019 Ep 252 July 14, 2024

Not least within the Afghan Government itself under president arnie. That they did not like the document they were dead immediately explain that they had reservations about certain elements of it and i think also for the for the broader public we should not forget that afghanistan has been urbanized since 2001 to a greater extent theres a huge number of people that live in the cities and that cities have been broadly facing the brunt of the taliban attacks where in the rural areas the taliban have been attacked consistently by the nato led and then you know the last few years by the Afghan Security services so in the city is the perception of a peace deal with the taliban and how its received is entirely different to how it might be viewed and ok perceived in the rural areas although afghans as a total they do want an end to violence but i think that particular draft looked like it was giving the taliban upper hand and the taliban could actually sell it as a as a product that shows that they have actually succeeded that theyve beaten the worlds heaviest superpower and all those kinds of things you can create a narrative in your favor from johnny b. Some american diplomats cautioned against the deal particular when it comes to withdraw prior to any comprehensive settlement with the taliban saying that it could be catastrophic leading to further an arche in afghanistan isnt this a realization that the. Pleas from those exposed that the americans are giving too much to the taliban in exchange for a permanent deal well i think the most important part of that the deal as its been structured has often been missed in the public discussion and theres a perception that in this deal the u. S. Troops would leave no matter what the taliban does and that perhaps what some taliban hope is true and certainly what many in afghanistan fear is true i really dont think it is true this is that has been fairly clear many times his phrase is nothing is agreed until everything is agreed and the concept is that this deal lays out a conditional drawdown the potential drop down and the timetable on which would happen but theres a huge difference between agreeing on that timetable and actually removing troops and so i would strongly agree with those diplomats who wrote the letter youre referring to that the actual departure of u. S. Troops needs to be pinned to milestones in the Peace Process because whats important is to actually get to a cease fire and political settlement that brings peace to the country without that a drawdown could be a disaster but i really think this deal has been mischaracterized as leaving regardless of what happened. Well anyway we do understand was that part of the provisions of the deal are kept secret for the time being because its not set in stone but however lets try and read into the possibilities and scenarios once there is a deal what becomes of the taliban what kind of role do you think they would accept to play in the afghanistan in the future if it is not the lead role in the country well because it has been a hide and seek sort of game between the palace and be americans not have been coming blair in terms of that position i can remind you some of the palace. Previously offered grounds of talks talked about. Resolving the avalon aadmi overhauling the hope of doing the constitution but then they ran back and said well we dont mean that and we will continue with the Current System so there was no clear stance from there and that was something that was that put the avalon people in a state of bother about their future right now the taliban have been looking forward to taking a whole of the pie as earlier was said that they wanted to claim a victory against the american establishment of the busy regime of the late ninetys back however the also understand the ground ground realities that afghanistan has progress toward the last 2 big it significantly and it might be difficult to go back to that hardcore taliban system but of course they were looking forward to picking go to the whole government and coming as. At the ied. As a Group Leading the country whereas the avalon government has been pushing for elections and and offering that participation and integration in the National Political system so not that i see a point that we go into. Hakimi now if you look at the latest developments on the ground i mean the taliban control Something Like 50 percent of the territory enough god is done they can launch attacks at the very heart of kabul i mean its clear indications that the americans do understand that for them to move forward in the future they need to have the taliban on board as likely as a key player to ensure stability i think i would caution as a recess how about those statistics i just read they want to run my longest look at then they learn by not needle nizamuddin i dont you know lose the on the on out of the sense i dont doubt. I dont doubt that what you just said the authenticity of it but the way to interpret that perhaps is important to look at whether the taliban really control do they disrupt and im not in any way in favor of my status or in favor of the government or the taliban im just giving you an analytical view on this afghanistan has Population Centers they have urban centers their districts and terms of clear cut districts you have on i think you have about under a 60 degree districts that are clearly under the control of the taliban over 200. 00 of those districts are under the control of the government and the remainder is a contested area but also there is a Population Center argument so when you look at these districts on the part that the geography of the country there is a distribution of population so the majority of the countrys population live in areas which are claimed by the Afghan Government to be under their rule but its absolutely true in security its extremely extremely disheartening i mean even for all of us when we go to kabul for afghans themselves when they travel out of the capital city certain times of the day in the evening its difficult to go out of the presence of the city is just a lot of insecurity so there is of course this disruption this kind of stalemate which was mentioned by much talk earlier but i think it certainly doesnt mean that the taliban have demonstrated that they can hold cities and they can hold territory thats a completely different debate that we havent experienced you point the big cities the big Service Provision and all of these things are still done with the direct support of the International Donors and delivered you know either back well or badly by the Afghan Government so they are of the taliban as far as theyre concerned have not demonstrated a record of governing and the last. Several years except for being an extremely effective and surgeon see group that they can disrupt they can mobilize attacks in the heart of the cities across afghanistan including in kabul at absolutely miraculous amounts of time that they could have done it mr walsh what is the most. Likely scenario so the deal a power sharing agreement between the government of us still offline the along with the leadership of the taliban or do you see the taliban having having you know way or another the upper hand well i think that the problem is that no side is likely to win a military victory really at any point and so the whole premise of why a Peace Agreement is so important is that you could plausibly get to a scenario where no party gets all of the pie but all of them get enough of the pie to feel like its a reasonable deal and a better alternative than just fighting indefinitely and it has been fighting indefinitely so far so i think i worked on this diplomat for many years ive experienced some other very difficult moments where there was a near mess and then Something Like this happened and the talks the next days are really really crucial and theres a limited window to save what what in the big picture is a huge moment of opportunity that i dont think has come before where the whole world is focused on this Peace Process all of the relevant countries i think are supportive of this Peace Process working out the parties were ready to talk to each other and to at least explore some kind of reasonable way forward that ok i would have to overhaul the Current System so the next few days are truly crucial i see youre going to keep this i mean a larger breakdown what happens next if the talks collapse. Ok 1st of all i would like to just see that i recall mr hockey reis position on the percentages that you mentioned secondly on a future course of action there is no way out but negotiation settlement the military carcass does almost impossible for all sides and the talks should not and i believe would not collapse the only thing is that their time frame back was in resized part of sealing the deal will lapse further we will have more rounds of negotiations but definitely a new position have to continue i dont waste the while unsmooth reached a level which might not be a more side will be able to contain and be in our control ferial only really out is the negotiator said ill have to go to the hakimi missile hakimi we sometimes we just tend to think about the americans with used leverage in afghanistan but there are other countries with huge interest the iranians the russians the pakistanis the indians regional players in this part of the well the qataris the sod is the emirates is how does the geo political dynamic play out. I mean it has. It has obviously a very important and significant role because of the geographical location of honest on because of how the Afghan Government at least in the last decade or so has been reconnected to some extent to the new realities and in the region. Those players all of these countries they have a lot of leverage in the country they have their particular clientele relationship but segments of the elites in afghanistan and certain segments of the territory could be more vulnerable to their influence as directly as well so there are parts of the country that has border with pakistan huge significant parts of the country that also parts of it with with iran and all of those realities are important but in no way i would say that any of those relationships with afghanistan or with the war in afghanistan is as significant as the role of the United States because the United States of lets not forget is the biggest donor of the Afghan Government it has been its remained so it has been the biggest donor to the military expenditure and it has been at the forefront of supporting the Afghan Security forces fighting the taliban with the Drone Operations and all of this so of course all of these regional equiv rims are important but the americans central remains and i just listened very well for her on the early. If i can make a quick clip quick version if you please very briefly. Yeah i just wanted to say i just wanted to say that what regards to what happens the day after the peace deal what with all due respect i think nobody really knows even the taliban have not had had the opportunity to to i think think about this in the im going to lead certainly dont know what happens the following day and because we dont know what happens after the deal is signed this deal with the United States and the between the isis and the taliban or even the final agreement you know there is not a lot of anticipation about the clarity of how american would look like the day after a peace deal and hence you have all this hesitation and all kinds of uncertainties on the ground johnny less than a minute because if you dont mind until before the tweets the those talks were not really topping the agenda in the news media now lets assume that trump manages to bring them back together the taliban and a sort of army and finalize a deal how significant for him this is going to be. I mean that would be very significant a big part of president trumps political argument is that hes good at making deals deals in afghanistan and elsewhere are often very difficult and so if you were to help accomplish a breakthrough like that it would be hugely significant id also just said quickly to mr mccain these points that right now all of those conflicted regional states are quite a line behind wanting this process to work and that is rare given the diversity of interest. If this process breaks down more largely i dont think that unity will continue i suspect all 3 of us would agree on that any International Actors russia china pact the u. S. Will all have incentives to back different actions to back different parts of the afghan war and that cant lead anywhere good so it further illustrates the need to make this diplomatic push work because right now all the political incentives are aligned behind it and to lose this moment of it would be a tragic while its very interesting to see how this is going to further unfold but until then i really appreciate your time and contribution johnny was how made hakimi and. Thank you too for watching you can see the program again and its on by visiting the website. For further discussion go to our Facebook Page thats facebook dot com forward slash a. J. Inside story you can also join the conversation on twitter a 100 is a j in size for me about on the whole team here in doha by phone a. Over the decades millions of arabs have moved from the middle east many refugees but others economic migrants taking the skills abroad. Aljazeera world meets to talk to us to forge new lives in a strange land and the u. S. Never forgetting their roots. But each committed to building a new life helping others. Arabs abroad the surgeons on aljazeera. Make stories generate fountains of headlines it seems that much the media is still struggling with how to deal with it with different angles from different perspectives and you hold a lawyer to separate the spin from the facts. The misinformation from the journalism how careful must you choose your words but some tough stuff has to be said for some critics have to be made of the listening post on aljazeera. Hello and hasnt seen in doha the top stories on aljazeera u. K. Prime minister Boris Johnson is expected back in parliament very soon to push again for an early election it was in dublin earlier way johnson at the irish Prime Minister seeking a way to maintain a seamless border between the countries off the brakes. Because we must get brakes it done because the u. K. Must come out on october 31st by october 31st or else i fear that permanent damage will be done in the u. K. To trust in our democratic system and i knew that next it was not to be perfectly frank a problem a conundrum that arland wishful. And i think there are certainly questions that we need to resolve lies lay has the latest from london. Boris johnsons left on his way back here no but i mean they made it very clear during that little News Conference before before the short talks that they had. That state didnt expect any sort of breakthrough so they you know that they did the irish position absolutely maintains that they have to have some sort of insurance policy known as the backstop to make sure that the border can stay open to ensure the good friday Peace Agreements history is still there and Free Movement can be organized goods and people until some other solution can be found that allows the u. K. To leave the European Union and start trading with everybody else and not shutting the border the same time because clearly the contradiction between between the u. K. Leaving the e. U. And and having an open border and Boris Johnson says well you know ive got lots and lots of ideas is just that he wont tell anybody what in the of them are and soon found over the weekend when one of his ministers amber rhodes resigned she said that shed asked johnson before saying she was going to resign what your alternative proposals are and she was given one a 4 piece of paper so if the johnson camp actually does have ideas and isnt going to share the not just with the media but with their own cabinet ministers then it is it is a pretty strange set of affairs i think that possibly concerned that some of those ideas might leak out and they say that would disrupt their negotiating position with the European Union but to the untrained eye and certainly to the european perspective it looks very much like they dont have any new dark new ideas until at least 29 people have been killed and 10 others injured in triple attacks in west africas bikini a faster a state of emergency is in place in 7 of the countrys 13 regions more than 500 People Killed by armed groups in bikini fassel in the last 4 years a Lebanese Armed Group Hezbollah says it shot down an israeli drone outside the border town of ramya its fighters say they now have the aircraft israel and hezbollah exchanged fire along the lebanese border just over a week ago. The Syrian Government has condemned joint u. S. And turkish patrols in the northwest as a flagrant violation of its sovereignty vehicles returned to turkey on sunday after entering an area used to be controlled by u. S. Backed Kurdish Forces the u. S. And turkey want to establish a safe zone in the area of thousands of School Students have been forming human chains around hong kong in solidarity with protesters the authorities are condemning what they call the illegal behavior of radicals and of demonstrators to stop trying the patience of the government thats after sundays protests ended in

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