350000000. 00 but russias holdings of quadrupled over the last decade the jewelry industry uses about 2000 tonnes of gold every year worth around 85000000000. 00 but its people in india that have believed to hold the most gold estimated to be worth around 1. 00 trillion dollars so is that extra demand for gold or is this just investors seeking a safe haven to find out were joined via skype by gavin wendt gavin is the founding director and senior resource analyst at sydney based mine life good to have you with us gavin so whats behind golds recent rally well weve seen a number of fact is that conspire exactly the right time. Dr gold are there in some more recent fact is. I guess related to things in the last week for example related to u. S. Interest rate cuts. Trade issues uncertainty with respect to britain and iran an ongoing Economic Council. That we can actually trace goals i guess. Strong momentum. Back to probably the g f c back in 2000 and night the tremendous amount of spending that went on in the wake of the g. 8 c. Of around the world in terms of money printing by Central Banks and also they slashing Interest Rates to in some cases 0 levels or even negative levels in in the case of some of your pain countries and those factors have provided a very very strong macro picture to drive the gulp crossfires so whilst weve seen a lot of action in the gold price over recent months and particularly now the last 6 months that the price is going to very very high levels this is a storm thats been building probably for about the last 10 to 12 years that sometimes these things take a while to develop. And with starting to see the you know the real upside in the go price now eventually this weeks rate cut by the fed do you expect to see further cuts in the future what a rate cuts a rate rises mean for the price of gold right ketz a typically quite good positive full to gulp price outlook that is because right cuts typically to a weakening in the u. S. Dollar and a weaker u. S. Dollar typically results in a stronger gulp process and device. So what weve seen in the wake of the the u. S. Interest rate cut was markets. Looked at the fake commentary and they examined it and the fed was what they suggested in their common treatments that this was likely to be a one off right cut. They would likely to follow through with the right cuts and the market had been expecting that this would be just the 1st of a series of write cats throughout 2019 perhaps in calendar 2020. However what weve seen from the fed in the past is that they say one thing and they typically tend to do the to do the opposite and this is particularly been the case over the last 12 to 18 months if we go back to the same period in 2008 saying the fed was talking about likely right increases or at least keeping rates on hold. Fast forward to around april the shia and there were a game saying that it was highly unlikely that it would be any sorts of right caps i couldnt see any right cats for the foreseeable future here we are in july august and they have theyve cut rates so whilst they say that there is unlikely to be further right cats i think the economic circumstances in the United States will determine that they will be further right cuts certainly President Trump would very much like to see right cuts and i think thats what were going to be looking at so i think theres going to be further impetus to the process with with likely right cuts to come if not in the 2nd half of 2019 that i think pushing into 2020 or so given russia has been increasing its holdings what do you make of that russia in particular has been a very strong buyer of gold over recent years and so has china for that matter china has come out and actually said that it is buying more gold they came reason for Central Banks not only china and russia but other Central Banks around the world to tiptoe just gold is that wanting to diversify their foreign reserves out of the u. S. Dollar there is a few in Financial Markets that the u. S. Dollar is significantly i valued. And as a result of that Central Banks starting to buy gold inning creasing volumes and particularly if were likely to say for their interest. Caps then the direction of the u. S. Dollar is going to be down i think if you look at the Central Banks around the world as a collective during 2018 which is the most recent data we have they bought about 576 tons of gold and that was the biggest annual purchase of gold by Central Banks since 2012 and what were saying in terms of central Bank Purchases the shia led by russia is that 29. 00 saying its likely to outstrip purchases from last year so that the trend in terms of Central Bank Buying is definitely upwards and just briefly given whats whats the target price for gold. Well ive recently revised upward my target price at the start of calendar 2019 i was looking at a trading range goal to explain 12503050 perhaps but given the likelihood of further write cats im probably going against the grain here in terms of what Market Perception is doubting what the fed will do i think there are just so many positive factors out there driving gold the moment in terms of risk Economic Council see the value do a sham not get and the likelihood of right cuts that ive upgraded my price forecast for the next 12 months to between 34050. 00 per ounce i think theres very strong upside and theres even the potential for gold to go higher perhaps challenge that 1500. 00. I think theres a very strong confluence of events and i dont think there are any of those issues are going to be resolved any time soon kevin is pretty good to talk to you on counting the cost many thanks indeed for being with us my pleasure now years of war and instability have damaged iraqs gas and Oil Infrastructure leaving it dependent upon Energy Imports despite having huge reserves but iraq wants to change that with help from big overseas investment houses here as a summit in java reports from iraq. Electricity is in high demand specially during the summer and power plants rely on gas most of it comes from fields like the basra gas field in the south and because its associated gas with oil a single will provide support or oil and gas but iraq doesnt produce enough gas for its power stations a 3rd of what it needs is imported from iran. In the 1980 s. Raining jets took out most of iraqs oil and Gas Infrastructure than the sanctions that followed saddam husseins invasion of kuwait stalled any development now iraqs economy is weak the us is an important ally and both saudi arabia and iran are its neighbors iranian gas is a burden on baghdad stretched budget and a loaded issue for domestic and regional politics Prime Minister made he wants to make iraq Energy Independent his oil minister has already signed multibillion dollar deals with International Companies such as honeywell eggs on and shell unfortunately because of the order were delayed and thats why really. And he was lagging behind. We are concentrating on this and the possible use to burn more 50 per cent 2 years to 3 years ago. 55. 45. 00 i want to be realistic or to 5 years will be i would say there are big. And this of course will lead to many advantages one of course a while for Power Generation that will definitely make. Energy independent who dont need to import and of course. You know. Maintaining a gas field under 46. 00 degrees is anything but easy but these iraqis are making sure that they continue to pump the gas which helps run their country besides the gas needed for electricity these gas fields also produce other types for domestic use and export 75 percent of the. L. P. G. The facility which is more than 25 years old. Is being renovated its electric instruments. To do these upgrades requires major investment rox government says despite obstacles like corruption and an unstable region investors are coming to back that. Gas is their primary resource in the Southern Region especially to generate electricity most of the old power plants were motive from liquid fuel operations to cast power plants as there was an urgent need for investment and to upgrade production as tensions escalate between us and iran iraq wants to diffuse so it can attract more companies to help achieve baghdad becoming Energy Independent. These engineers are practicing how to respond to an emergency involving the hazardous h 2 s. Gas. They work at the central processing facility of the mage known oil field in southern iraq what makes their operation unique is that after oil joined shell left iraqis took over and for the 1st time they were running oil and gas extraction on their own. After shell pulled out and 2018 bus for oil company took charge with the same standards and criteria bus company in cooperation with other Consulting Companies also proved that it has the ability to manage much oil field despite the challenges that we face one of those challenges a splitting from marshlands around the mage new and field this oil is below the nearly 5 metre high flood waters around the environmental risks mean new oil grid general will need to be elevated engineers say they have been able to reinforce dikes but one flooding could submerge their operation much new means crazy in arabic some say the name is in reference to the large amount of oil in one location the reserves of an estimated 38000000000 barrels this field produces 240000 barrels a day and that capacity is expected to go up to 450000 in 3 years the company says its able to find investors even when the world is moving towards alternative Energy Sources there is no and the risk for investment in iraq iraq is very respectful of government. And the company. Even with a shortage in financing and 2014252015 here are committed to. Cost our budget within the. Time when they invest when they buy and the cost back payment of timetabled 0 interest. Of their main. For you. 45. The Oil Companies know that iraq is coming out of years of war the recent crisis in the gulf increases risk and baghdad needs investment sources within the oil ministry told our desire that some Companies Want to use that to their advantage brought names i dont want to mention names but. I am a Firm Believer in 11 the relationship that come up to blackmail us and we dont want to twist their arms they are our partner nuts and we want to have good relations but on the other hand we are monitoring their activities we are watching the costs will have managed to reduce their costs if you look now at the cost per barrel you see their tours hiking up by the time it was decreased iraq plans to expand its overall Oil Production to 5 and a half 1000000 Barrels Per Day but as a member of the Oil Exporting Countries of opec it has to reduce its oil output iraqs economy is hinged on oil and faces a tough balancing act the government has to generate much needed revenue while abiding by opec agreement that is our show for this week if youd like to comment on anything that youve seen you can tweet me im at a finnigan on twitter please use the hash tag a j c t c when you do or you can drop us a line counting the cost of a dot net is our email address as always theres plenty more for you online at aljazeera dot com slash c. T. C. That takes you straight to our page and there youll find individual reports links even entire episodes music catch up. But thats it for this edition of counting the cost im adrian figure for the whole team here in doha thanks for being with us the news on aljazeera is next. America is divided like never before each side is so convinced that they are absolutely correct that the other side is dangerous as a wall and strict immigration policy people in power investigates the partisan politics eroding civil norms to american democracy are you concerned that the political divisions today could lead to violence. This strange death of american civility 2 on aljazeera. A cease fire collapses syria blames turkey as it resumes military operations against rebels in the northwest. Youre watching aljazeera life from a headquarters and. Also. Egypt as a car which blew up in a crash in central cairo was carrying explosives to be used in an attack. Governments remove special status for indian administered kashmir. Being told the same. Chaos on the streets of hong kong as police move in to break up protestors leading a general strike. Follow the ceasefire in syrias rebel held province has collapsed Regime Forces are resuming the bombardment of the government is accusing rebel forces of violations its also blaming turkey for not guaranteeing the truce the cease fire was agreed in kazakstan on thursday is that 100 near the turkish Syrian Border so is short lived ceasefire what more are you hearing about why its collapse now. Well like you mentioned collapse the airstrikes have resumed so far no reports of casualties it was announced late thursday friday night since then it has been quiet there have been no air strikes yes the warring parties shelled each other along the front lines but that cease fire was largely holding so in many ways this is a sudden announcement an unexpected announcement from the Syrian Military just a few hours ago saying that it is going to resume bombardment blaming specifically turkey saying that the proxy groups that support on the ground calling them armed terrorist groups are not complying with the cease fire so questions are raised why now especially in the Syrian Military statement they mention attacks on civilians without providing much details on when and where they happened and earlier today a pro Syrian Government website quoted a Syrian Military sources saying that the syrian army would give the rebels until august 16th after the end of the muslim holidays next week to comply with the conditions of the truce which leads really many to believe and some turkish sources telling us that this could be a direct message to turkey which is engaged in in talks with the United States in ankara at the moment theyre discussing the future of the north east of syria a corner of syria which is really strategic and theyre discussing the setting up a planned safe zone and what we understand is that there has been some progress in those negotiations a message from russia to turkey you cannot set up a new game in syria with the United States without our consent this is how some people are reading the sudden announcement from the Syrian Government of a ceasefire because at the end of the day we keep talking about the Syrian Government and the opposition but it is really russia the backer of the government turkey the backer of the opposition who are calling the shots and really a proxy war has been happening between these 2. Countries in it live over recent months and as always it is often the civilians who suffer the most as a result of any collapse of ceasefire so what are you hearing about how the civilians there are coping and how this will be impacting them. While theyre in just this morning a few 1000 people started to return to their homes the russian backed Syrian Government offensive which was launched in april displaced more than 400000 people according to the United Nations people started to return to their homes hoping that they could celebrate the holidays next week but definitely people are going to be more concerned because what we saw over the past 3 months really is intense airstrikes relentless airstrikes targeting civilian neighborhoods weve seen children dangling from collapsed apartment buildings children trapped underneath the rubble lifeless bodies being pulled from underneath the rubble according to war monitors more than 800 civilians were killed and they have documented 216 names of children who were killed in that offensive so undoubtedly people are concerned but they will tell you from the beginning we had no faith in the Syrian Government or the russian government we know that theyve deceived us in the past and they will continue to deceive us in the future so were expecting more relentless bombing in the hours and days ahead if russia and turkey are not able to revive that cease fire rights as in a hoser thank you they were his Defense Department delegation is in turkey i was just saying for a last ditch effort to set up a safe zone in the north east of syria and the turkish president raja tell you berta one has said his country is running out of patience with the u. S. On sunday he announced troops would be sent to an area controlled by kurdish fighters the white b. G. Has been an important u. S. Ally in the battle against eisel but ankara sees a terrorist group barker has more from istanbul. Turkish and u. S. Military officials are locked in talks to try and revive hopes of creating a safe zone in Northern Syria but neither side can see eye to eye on how deep that safe zone should be who should be in control of it turkey wants complete control and whether or not the white p. G. The kurdish fighters based in the region should be forced completely from that part of syria why p. G. Were close allies with the United States armed by the u. S. To and we