A century ago the United States has by far the biggest stockpile with an estimated 350000000000. 00 but russias holdings of quadrupled over the last decade the jewelry industry uses about 2000 tonnes of gold every year worth around 85000000000. 00 but its people in india that have believed to hold the most gold estimated to be worth around 1. 00 trillion dollars so is that extra demand for gold or is this just investors seeking a safe haven to find out were joined via skype by gavin wendt gavin is the founding director and senior resource analyst at sydney based mine life good to have you with us gavin so whats behind golds recent rally well weve seen a number of factors that conspire exactly the right time. Dr gold. There have been some. Recent factors. I guess related to things in the last week for example related to u. S. Interest rate caps trade issues uncertain day with respect to britain and iran an ongoing Economic Council. But we can actually trace goals i guess. Strong momentum. Back to probably the g f c back in 2000 and night the tremendous amount of spending that went on in the wake of the g. 8 c. Of around the world in terms of money printing by Central Banks and also they slashing Interest Rates to in some cases 0 levels or even negative levels in in the case of some of your pain countries and those factors have provided a very very strong macro picture to drive the gulp crossfires so whilst weve seen a lot of action in the gold price over recent months and particularly now the last 6 months that the price going to very very high levels this is a storm thats been building probably for about the last 10 to 12 years that sometimes these things take a while to develop. And with starting to see the you know the real upside in the go price now eventually this weeks rate cut by the fed do you expect to see further cuts in the future what a rate cuts a rate rises mean for the price of gold right cats are typically quite good positive full the gold price outlook that is because right cuts typically to a weakening in the u. S. Dollar and a weaker u. S. Dollar typically results in a stronger gulp process and device. So what weve seen in the wake of the the u. S. Interest rate cut was markets. Looked at the fake commentary and they examined it and the fed was what they suggested in their common treatments that this was likely to be a one off right cut. They would likely to follow through with the right cuts and the market had been expecting that this would be just the 1st of a series of write cats throughout 2019 perhaps in calendar 2020. However what weve seen from the fed in the past is that they say one thing and they typically tend to do the to do the opposite and this is particularly been the case over the last 12 to 18 months if we go back to the same period in 2008 saying the fed was talking about likely right increases or at least keeping rates on hold. Fast forward to around april the shia and there were a game saying that it was highly unlikely that it would to be any sorts of right caps i couldnt see any right cats for the foreseeable future here we are in july august and they have theyve cut rates so whilst they say that there is unlikely to be further right cats i think the economic circumstances in the United States will determine that they will be for the right cuts certainly President Trump would very much like to see right cuts and i think thats what were going to be looking at so i think theres going to be further impetus to the process with with likely rate cuts to come if not in the 2nd half of 2019 but i think pushing into 2020 or so given russia has been increasing its holdings what do you make of that russia in particular has been a very strong buyer of gold over recent years and so has china for that matter china has come out and actually said that it is buying more gold the key reason for Central Banks not only china and russia but other Central Banks around the world to to purchase gold is that wanting to diversify their foreign reserves out of the u. S. Dollar there is a few in Financial Markets that the u. S. Dollar is significantly i valued. And as a result of that Central Banks starting to buy gold inning creasing volumes and particularly if were likely to see further interest. Caps then the direction of the u. S. Dollar is going to be down i think if you look at the Central Banks around the world as a collective during 2018 which is the most recent data we have they bought about 576 tons of gold and that was the biggest annual purchase of gold by Central Banks since 2012 and what were saying in terms of central Bank Purchases the shia led by russia is that 29. 00 same as likely to outstrip coaches from last year so that the trend in terms of Central Bank Buying is definitely upwards and just briefly given whats whats the target price for gold. Well ive recently revised upward my target price at the start of calendar 2019 i was looking at a trading range goal to explain 12503050 perhaps but given the likelihood of further write cats im probably going against the grain here in terms of what Market Perception is doubting what the fed will do i think there are just so many positive factors out there driving gold byman in terms of risk Economic Council and see the value a sham not get and the likelihood of right cuts that ive upgraded my price forecast for the next 12 months to between 34050. 00 per ounce i think theres very strong upside and theres even the potential for gold to go higher perhaps challenge that 1500. 00. I think is a very strong confluence of events and i dont think there are any of those issues are going to be resolved any time soon kevin is pretty good to talk to your own counsel because many thanks indeed for being with us my pleasure now years of war and instability have damaged iraqs gas and Oil Infrastructure leaving it dependent upon Energy Imports despite having huge reserves but iraq wants to change that with help from big overseas investment as here as a summit in java reports from iraq. Electricity is in high demand specially during the summer and power plants rely on gas most of it comes from fields like the basra gas field in the south and because its associated gas with oil a single barrel provides both oil and gas but iraq doesnt produce enough gas for its power stations a 3rd of what it needs is imported from iran. In the 1980 s. Raining jets took out most of iraqs oil and Gas Infrastructure and the sanctions that followed saddam husseins invasion of kuwait stalled any redevelopment. Now iraqs economy is weak the us is an important ally and both saudi arabia and iran are its neighbors iranian gas is a burden on baghdad stretched budget and a loaded issue for domestic and regional politics Prime Minister other liberal maybe wants to make iraq Energy Independent his oil minister has already signed multibillion dollar deals with International Companies such as honeywell eggs on and shell unfortunately because of the order were delayed and thats why really. And he was lagging behind now. We are concentrating on this and the possible use to burn more golf if that person 2 years 23 years ago well now we thought i think about 55. 45. 00 i want to be realistic or the 5 years that i will be. There there are big. Ok and this of course will lead to many advantages one of course a white in gaza for Power Generation that will definitely make. Energy independent we dont need to import and of course and instead. You know. Maintaining a gas field under 46. 00 degrees is anything but easy but these iraqis are making sure that they continue to pump the gas which helps run their country besides the gas needed for electricity these gas fields also produce other types for domestic use and export 75 percent of the. L. P. G. Come from this. The facility which is more than 25 years old thats why this section of the plant is being renovated its electric instruments. To do these upgrades requires major investment rox government says despite obstacles like corruption and an unstable region investors are coming to back that. The. Gas is the primary resource in the Southern Region especially to generate electricity most of the old power plants were motive from liquid fuel operations to cast power plants as there was an urgent need for investment and to upgrade production as tensions escalate between us and iran iraq wants to diffuse so it can attract more companies to help achieve baghdad becoming Energy Independent. These engineers are practicing how to respond to an emergency involving the h 2 s. Gas. They work at the central processing facility of the mage new an oil field in southern iraq what makes their operation unique is that after Oil Giant Shell left iraqis took over and for the 1st time they were running oil and gas extraction on their own. After shell pulled out and 2018 bus for oil company took charge with the same standards and criteria bus company in cooperation with other Consulting Companies also proved that it has the ability to manage much oil field despite the challenges that we face. One of those challenges a splitting from marshlands around the mage new and field this oil is below the nearly 5 metre high flood waters around the united mental risks mean new oil grids and real need to be elevated engineers say they have been able to reinforce dikes but one flooding could submerge their operation mage new means crazy in arabic some say the name is in reference to the large amount of oil in one location the reserves of an estimated 38000000000 barrels this field produces 240000 barrels a day and that capacity is expected to go up to 450000 in 3 years. The company says its able to find investors even when the world is moving towards alternative Energy Sources there is no and the risk for investment in iraq iraq is very respectful of government. And the company. Even with a shortage in financing and 2014201520 extension 15 here are committed to pay back all the investor. Cost our budget within the. Time when they invest when they and the cost we return back their payment have to thema oh in the state. Of their main. And their g. E. If you. Want to fortify. The Oil Companies know that iraq is coming out of years of war the recent crisis in the gulf increases risk and baghdad needs investment sources within the oil ministry told out there that some Companies Want to use that to their advantage brought names i dont want to mention names but. I am a Firm Believer and 11 the relationship that come up to blackmail us and we dont want to twist their arms they are our partner knots and we want to have good relations but on the other hand we are monitoring their activities we are watching the costs we have managed to reduce the cost if you look now at the. Cost per barrel you see their tours hiking up but with time it was decreased iraq plans to expand its overall Oil Production to 5. 00 and a half 1000000 Barrels Per Day but as a member of the Oil Exporting Countries of opec it has to reduce its oil output. Iraqs economy is hinged on oil and faces a tough balancing act the government has to generate much needed revenue while abiding by opec agreement that for this week if youd like to comment on anything that youve seen you can tweet me climate a finnigan on twitter please use the hash tag a j c t c when you do or you can drop us a line counting the cost of aljazeera dot net is our email address as always theres plenty more for you on light at aljazeera dot com slash c. T. C. That takes you straight to a page a day youll find individual reports links even entire episodes for you to catch up on but thats it for this edition of counting the cost im adrian figure for the whole team here in doha thanks for being with us the news on aljazeera is next. Challenging social issues head on what women say is mexicos longest running says. The program celebrates its anniversary the producers revisit one of their most powerful storylines. And discover how the show has affected the women who inspired date in the 1st place. Now i have a voice sent box mexico on aljazeera. I was raised in france. These are my grandparents. These are my parents and this is mean. By them both isis and us on. The 1st of a 2 part epic tale of a remarkable family. The father the son and the. One on aljazeera. Al jazeera. Has im sick and this is the news hour live from doha coming up in the next 60 minutes a conditional cease fire is reached in syrias last rebel held province the death toll continues to rise from fighting in italy. The democratic republic of congo racist to contain an ebola epidemic with warnings it could last 3 years. What to recall gets a new governor after weeks of protests but theres uncertainty over his fate. Plus new u. S. Sanctions on russia over the poisoning of a former double agent and his daughter in the u. K. Well off to months of bombing in northwest syria the government has announced a conditional cease fire asked rice have stopped in italy province which is syrias last rebel held stronghold truce came during peace talks in kazakstan the opposition say they will stick to the deal as long as the government doesnt violate it Andrew Symonds was at the talks in north. In accordance with a communique that didnt use the word ceasefire syrian state media had already announced a conditional truce demanding the withdrawal of weaponry from a buffer zone or little. The Syrian Government blames the turkish for not fulfilling their role in the so she agreement last year. How the muslim you term this has not materialized on the contrary the number of terrorists in and lead has increased namely foreign fighter terrorists in and leave. The opposition despite reservations agreed to a truce but accused the regime of violating the sushi agreement taking advantage of a withdrawal of fighters so they could launch what it called their cunning criminal attacks and their spokesman gave this warning. Right now there is no trust and there will be no trust in the future when it comes with during the heavy weapons and no heavy weapons will be withdrawn unless there are a written guarantee. That russia says the biggest fighting group brands as terrorists terry arouse sham h. T. S. Must be eliminated turkey has an obligation according to such a memorandum to do it if they cannot do it alone can render them some help from us. Thats why were talked also today with the opposition. That if theyre interested and if they need some help also from the Russian Federation to fight here and other radicals and in a glib zone then they can count we can do it no one can measure the depth of distrust between the warring sides after more than 8 years of war hundreds of thousands dead moment 10000000 people displaced then theres the differences between the guarantors of these talks iran and russia on one side turkey on the other each with their differing interests. Nevertheless for so many traumatized civilians theres hope of some with spike from the bombing but no one needs reminding the deals done by leaders in high places have let the people of syria down so many times hundreds simmons aljazeera. Kazakstan. There already concerns about how long the ceasefire will last you know what it has more from gaziantep on the turkey syria border. The guns have fallen silent but what happens next is not clear this is a very ambiguous ceasefire according to the Syrian Government is that it is conditional on the implementation of the sochi deal now the opposition saying that we wont withdraw our heavy weapons unless we have guarantees from turkey and russia and you have High Authority to share which is the main Opposition Group but the Strongest Group in ad libbed saying that we reserve the right to retaliate if the truce is violated without without even mentioning whether or not it plans to implement that sochi memorandum h. T. S. Was the group that refused to withdraw from a Demilitarized Zone making it very very difficult for turkey to create this cell and in fact this is why russia kept on criticizing turkey saying youre not fulfilling your commitments under the sochi deal will turkey be able to do that this time around so there is a lot of concern that this is just a short Term Agreement or an arrangement at the end of the day we keep talking about the opposition and the government but it is russia and turkey that brokered this deal the 2 powers who support their warring sides on the ground and both of them really have to reach some sort of a compromise because turkey had political leverage if the rebels were Holding Ground the government was not able to make any significant advances the russians and the Syrian Government were targeting civilian areas killing civilians pressuring the rebels to try to surrender so there was a need to reach some sort of an agreement this specially since turkey and russia dont want to rupture their relationship but whether or not it will be short term or long term well we have to wait and see zain the heart of there and get the United Nations has welcomed the cease fire. According to the office of coronation of humanitarian affairs nor strikes have been reported since midnight but there are reports of artillery shell