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Weekly ChartStorm - 11 April 2021

Source: 4. Cash Allocations Back to the Bottom of the Range: Thanks mostly to market movements, surveyed cash allocations have dropped - this means at the margin there is incrementally less cash in proportion to equities (less buying power), and also tells us investors are implicitly comfortable running lower allocations. Source: 5. TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index: This interesting sentiment indicator (based on trading account activity) has surged to the 3rd highest level since they began compiling the indicator (in 2010). Should be no surprise; especially in the context of the last two charts - sentiment is little short of euphoric. Source: 6. Sell Side Sell Indicator: basically this one is tracking sentiment of the sell side (analysts/strategists at investment banks). It’s a bit of a peculiar indicator, but could be worth noting as/when it hits the “sell signal“ level (which could well be soon).

Trucking gets another shot in the arm from quarantined consumers

Trucking gets another shot in the arm from quarantined consumers Consumers spent 22% more on goods in January, tightening capacity back to peak levels in March 0 10 3 minutes read Chart of the Week:  Outbound Tender Volume Index – USA, Personal Consumption Expenditures – Durable Goods SONAR: OTVI.USA, PCE.DG Just as the consumer goods boom appeared to be in decline, spending got another boost on the heels of more stimulus and spiking COVID-19 cases, posting an unexpected 12% sequential gain in January over December after the holiday spending had passed. FreightWaves Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI), which measures truckload electronic tender volumes in the U.S., posted a similar gain in March over February, sharply reversing a declining trend. This relationship has evolved to the point where it appears there could be as much as a two-month lead time on freight volumes.   

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