Weekly Technical Euro Forecast: Upside Potential Persists
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Technical Forecast for the Euro: Neutral
The Euro appears to be consolidating after recent upside moves; there is plenty of room in futures positioning for speculators to drive prices higher.
Net-long Euro positioning is back to its highest level since the last week of March.
Euro Rates Week in Review
The Euro has a mostly positive turn through the middle of May, even if the headline stats don’t appear so. Even though four EUR-crosses gained and three EUR-crosses fell, the bias was towards the upside: the average loss was -0.10%, while the average gain was +0.81%. If anything, it appears that the Euro is consolidating after a strong run higher against the safe havens, while volatility in global equity markets is giving traders a reason to take their foot off the pedal when it comes to the commodity currencies.
Weekly Technical Euro Forecast: Basically a Falling Knife Advertisement
Technical Forecast for the Euro: Bearish
The Euro has been cut down to size in recent days, and technical studies among various EUR-crosses suggest that the weakness may continue.
Net-long Euro positioning is now at its lowest level since July 2020 – and the reporting period ended prior to the selloff on Thursday and Friday.
Euro Rates Week in Review
It was a rough week for the Euro. Losing ground against five of the other seven major currencies, three EUR-crosses posted losses in excess of -1% (EUR/CAD -1.98%; EUR/USD -1.34%; EUR/AUD -1.08%). Meanwhile, the two EUR-crosses that managed to finish in positive did not gain more than +1% (EUR/CHF -0.91%; EUR/JPY -0.29%).
Weekly Technical Euro Forecast: It s a Mixed Bag Advertisement
Technical Forecast for the Euro: Neutral
Selection matters in the EUR-crosses, as each major pair is seemingly in its own world. EUR/USD has struggled while EUR/JPY has rallied, and EUR/GBP is still in Brexit’s thrall.
Significant technical levels have been reached in each of the three major EUR-crosses in recent days.
The IG Client Sentiment Index suggests that most EUR-crosses have a mostly bullish trading bias.
Euro Proves Relatively Boring
January was an exciting month for many reasons, and for the Euro, this was true to vary degrees, but mostly negative. Coronavirus vaccination rates have been incredibly slow across Europe, much slower than the UK and the US. With lockdowns ongoing, economic data remains sluggish, providing little reason for traders to lift the Euro higher. But then again, the Euro hasn’t made much progression or regression either: neither EUR/JPY nor EUR/USD rates move