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Rich countries close their eyes to the global Covid surge at their own peril | Laura Spinney

The sharpest upticks in recent weeks have been seen in south-east Asia – driven in large part by India – and the eastern Mediterranean and western Pacific regions, but the situation is also very bad in Latin America. People who migrated to Brazil in search of work are now reported to be fleeing the humanitarian catastrophe that is unfolding there. Infection rates are still high in many wealthy countries – including the US and much of Europe – but the mood is more upbeat: as vaccines roll out, many people feel the worst is behind them. Some US states have rashly lifted their mask mandates. The British government gave the most optimistic signal it could think of earlier this month, when it reopened pubs. And Covid-19 is slipping down the headlines, reflecting not just fatigue at having to respect the rules, but fatigue at the very mention of the disease. Fear concentrates the mind, but fear is dissipating; we’d rather read about Tory sleaze, or the doomed European Super Leag

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Rich countries close their eyes to the global Covid surge at their own peril

Rich countries close their eyes to the global Covid surge at their own peril Laura Spinney © Provided by The Guardian Photograph: AP Is there one pandemic, or two? That was a question being asked a year ago, when wealthy countries accounting for only 15% of the global population had 80% of the Covid deaths. Could it be that the rich world was more vulnerable, somehow, because its populations were older, or more individualistic, or had forgotten to be scared of infectious disease? Even then, some were warning that the worst was yet to come, once the disease took hold in poorer countries. World Bank analysts Philip Schellekens and Diego Sourrouille, for example, predicted a “massive shift” in disease burden to the developing world. Just in terms of demography, they said, you’d expect those countries to account for around 70% of deaths. As things stand they account for a little over half of it, which is probably an underestimate due to variations in data q

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Rampant Covid in countries such as India and Brazil will shape the evolution of the virus

Jewel Samad/AFP/Getty Images 1 Rich countries close their eyes to the global Covid surge at their own peril on a vulnerable world Last week there were more than 5.8 million new cases of Covid across the world, the highest number yet, says Laura Spinney in The Guardian. The “sharpest upticks” have been seen in south-east Asia, the eastern Mediterranean and western Pacific regions, while the “situation is also very bad in Latin America”. We can be confident that poorer countries will contribute most of this year’s Covid deaths and “we should remember that rich countries are not immune from what happens beyond their shores”, says Spinney. “Rampant Covid in countries such as India and Brazil will shape the evolution of the virus and could cause new, even more dangerous variants to emerge, which neither our borders nor our vaccines are guaranteed to keep out.”

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