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British Pound Forecast: BoE Talks End Game, EUR/GBP Drops to Yearly Lows
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British Pound Forecast: GBP Caution as BoE Meeting Looms
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British Pound Forecast: Sterling Crosses Prove Tired - Setups for EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY, GBP/USD
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British Pound Outlook:
The British Pound is finishing one of the worst times of the year per seasonality studies, and given that context, the month of May has been quite good.
GBP/JPY and GBP/USD rates are hovering below key resistance levels, while EUR/GBP rates may continue to drift higher.
Recent changes in retail trader positioning suggest a mostly mixed bias for the British Pound.
Sterling Grinding Sideways
The British Pound has seemingly been stuck in the mud for the past few weeks, masking what has otherwise been a strong month of May. In fact, considering that Sterling is finishing one of the worst times of the year per seasonality studies, the British Pound’s gain are that much more impressive. Even if the major GBP-crosses have appeared to have tired in the last half of May, they remain generally well-positioned to capitalize on bullish technical opportunities
British Pound Forecast: GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, GBP/NZD Rates
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British Pound Outlook:
The British Pound’s performance against the commodity currencies has been middling. While GBP/JPY is up by over +8% year-to-date, GBP/AUD is up by just over +1.7%, GBP/NZD is up less than +0.2%, and GBP/CAD has dropped by over -1.75%.
GBP/AUD remains rangebound, while GBP/CAD and GBP/NZD continue to coil ever more into their triangular consolidations.
According to the IG Client Sentiment Index, the British Pound has a mixed trading bias.
Commodity Currency GBP-crosses Turning Higher?
By most measures, the British Pound is among the best performing currencies in the developed currency space. And while this is true particularly against the lower yielding currencies, it’s not-so against growth-sensitive or high beta currencies. While GBP/JPY is up by over +8% year-to-date, GBP/AUD is up by just over +1.7%, GBP/NZD is up less than +0.2%, and GBP/CAD has dropped by over -1.75%.
British Pound Forecast: UK GDP Report to Go Unnoticed as BoE Tapers QE
2021-05-07 16:00:00
David Song,
Strategist
British Pound Talking Points
Fresh projections coming out of the Bank of England (BoE) instills an improved outlook for the British Pound as the central bank expects economic activity to return to pre-pandemic conditions later this year, and the update to the UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may generate a limited reaction in GBP/USD as the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) slows the pace of its weekly asset purchases to GBP 3.4B from theprevious rate of GBP 4.4B.
Fundamental Forecast for British Pound: Neutral
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