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IMAGE: Modern decision theory can assist policymakers in critical times such as the COVID-19 crisis, argue Bocconi University s Massimo Marinacci and Valentina Bosetti in a paper coauthored by Nobel laureate Lars. view more
Credit: Paolo Tonato
During a pandemic, decisions have to be made under time pressure and amid scientific uncertainty, with potential disagreements among experts and models. With COVID-19, especially during the first wave, there was uncertainty about the virus transmissibility, the disease severity, the future evolution of the pandemic and the effectiveness of the proposed policy interventions, such as wearing face masks or closing schools. Together with a group of epidemiologists and economists, including the Nobel Prize winner Lars Peter Hansen, Bocconi professors Massimo Marinacci, AXA-Bocconi Chair in Risk, and Valentina Bosetti investigated how modern decision theory can help policymakers navigate through the uncertainty that characteri