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Calculated Risk

The Census Bureau released the Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q2 2021. It is likely the results of this survey were significantly distorted by the pandemic.   This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track household formation, the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates.  However, there are serious questions about the accuracy of this survey. This survey might show the trend, but I wouldn t rely on the absolute numbers. Analysts probably shouldn t use the HVS to estimate the excess vacant supply or household formation, or rely on the homeownership rate, except as a guide to the trend.

Calculated Risk

This graph shows new home sales for 2020 and 2021 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). The year-over-year comparisons were easy in the first half of 2021 - especially in March and April. However, sales will likely be down year-over-year in the 2nd half of 2021 - since the selling season was delayed in 2020. And on inventory: note that completed inventory (3rd graph in previous post) is near record lows, but inventory under construction is closer to normal. This graph shows the months of supply by stage of construction. The inventory of completed homes for sale was at 36 thousand in June, just above the record low of 33 thousand in March and April 2021. 

Calculated Risk

Calculated Risk
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