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Abstract Issue: The American Rescue Plan offers financial incentives for 14 states to expand Medicaid eligibility for low-income adults, as all other states have done. In these states, people below the federal poverty level have no access to Medicaid or marketplace coverage. Expanding Medicaid would yield economic benefits in addition to gains in health care access. Goal: To analyze how states’ decisions to expand Medicaid would affect federal funding, jobs, state economies, and state and local tax revenues. Methods: We project each state’s increase in federal funding under Medicaid expansion and its share of expansion expenditures (2022–2024) and then use REMI’s PI+ dynamic economic model to estimate how these funding changes would impact economic outcomes.

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