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A stock set to report earnings has options pricing in a certain expected move based on the uncertainty surrounding the earnings release. This can lead to elevated premiums (making options more expensive). After earnings, with the uncertainty gone, options reset to price more day-to-day expected moves. That means that further out-the-money Calls or Puts, particularly beyond where the stock actually moves, may see a sharp overnight decline in implied volatility (making them less expensive). In other words, if you’ve used options to trade a view, you may not realize a profit even if you were right on direction.
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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock is back in the news following a sell-off over the past few weeks and a bounce higher in the past few days. We ll look at what the options market is expecting in terms of the magnitude of upcoming stock moves. We ll also look at how spreads might be used in a high-premium environment to reduce capital outlay – whatever your trading view.
Tesla options are pricing about a
10% move by March 19th, about $65 in either direction
Options are pricing
14% move into April 1st, a little more than $90 in either direction.
Here s the bullish and bearish consensus with the stock near $665, via Options AI: