RBNZ Preview: Setting the stage for monetary policy normalization? fxstreet.com - get the latest breaking news, showbiz & celebrity photos, sport news & rumours, viral videos and top stories from fxstreet.com Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday newspapers.
RBNZ policy meeting this week - shadow board evenly split on tighter policy
Sun 11 Jul 2021 22:36:56 GMT
The statement will be at 0200 GMT
The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) runs a shadow board of analysts.
The Shadow Board is independent of the RBNZ and
does not represent what the RBNZ is going to do but rather what their view is the RBNZ should do.
I bolded some of that preceding sentence, in summary the Shadows do not preview what they think will happen, but what they think should happen.
From the NZIER:
Many on the Shadow Board now see a tightening in monetary policy at the upcoming July meeting as appropriate. Beyond that, an overwhelming majority thinks monetary policy should be tightened within the coming year.
Shadow RBA finally catches down to the doves macrobusiness.com.au - get the latest breaking news, showbiz & celebrity photos, sport news & rumours, viral videos and top stories from macrobusiness.com.au Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday newspapers.
Date Time
Cash rate should stay on hold for next year
The official cash rate should remain at a historic low of 0.1 per cent for at least one year, according to The Australian National University’s RBA Shadow Board.
In its latest vote, the Shadow Board attaches a 95 per cent probability that an overnight cash rate of 0.1 per cent is the right setting, and only a five per cent probability that interest rates should rise.
This is down slightly from the Board’s May vote, which attributed a 98 per cent probability that 0.1 per cent was the correct setting.
The Board has a 62 per cent conviction that 0.1 per cent rates are the right setting in 12 months’ time.