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 E-Mail IMAGE: Ensemble-mean forecast anomalies averaged over forecast years 2-9 for summer precipitation on the inner Tibetan Plateau. Red line: hindcasts; Blue line: quasi real-time predictions; Black line: observations. Shadings represent uncertainty.. view more  Credit: HU Shuai Summer rainfall on the Tibetan Plateau is highly predictable on multiyear timescales in large ensemble predictions, according to a research team led by ZHOU Tianjun from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The study, published in Science Advances on June 9, shows evidence that the predictable signal of summer rainfall across the hinterland of the Tibetan Plateau is substantially underestimated in state-of-the-art decadal prediction models.

Yellow riverChina generalYangtze riverTibetan plateauInstitute of atmospheric physicsUniversity of chinese academy sciencesChinese academy of sciencesAtmospheric physicsChinese academyScience advancesState key laboratoryNumerical modelingAtmospheric sciencesGeophysical fluid dynamicsCoupled model intercomparison projectDecadal climate prediction project