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IMAGE: Ensemble-mean forecast anomalies averaged over forecast years 2-9 for summer precipitation on the inner Tibetan Plateau. Red line: hindcasts; Blue line: quasi real-time predictions; Black line: observations. Shadings represent uncertainty....
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Credit: HU Shuai
Summer rainfall on the Tibetan Plateau is highly predictable on multiyear timescales in large ensemble predictions, according to a research team led by ZHOU Tianjun from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
The study, published in
Science Advances on June 9, shows evidence that the predictable signal of summer rainfall across the hinterland of the Tibetan Plateau is substantially underestimated in state-of-the-art decadal prediction models.