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Bank-Loan Funds Are in a Sweet Spot
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Six months ago, I forecasted that bonds of all stripes would extend their winnings this year. Then fears of inflation and rising interest rates sent Treasury and corporate bond yields up and sent bond prices, which move in the opposite direction, down 5% or more over the first three months of 2021 – with the exception of high-yield junk bond prices.
Although long-term interest rates, including corporate and Treasury yields, leveled off in April and backslid in May, my prophecy of positive total returns is in manifest jeopardy.
Through May 7, the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) shows a loss of 2.5%. If that continues, 2021 would be the first down year for this popular yardstick since 2013.
Bank-loan funds lacked investor appeal in 2019 and 2020 as interest rates fell. But economic recovery and the potential for rising short-term interest rates have put the category back in favor in 2021. Bank-loan mutual funds have received net inflows of more than $13 billion for the year to date through April 2021, which was almost a fourth of the category’s assets at the beginning of the year. Demand for high-yield bond funds has been milder this year despite the similarities of the two asset classes. While high-yield bonds have greater upside potential, bank loans defensive characteristics make them an attractive portfolio diversifier. Bank loans’ unique floating-rate feature, their hierarchy in the capital structure, and the loan market’s industry composition all make for an appealing relative value opportunity versus high-yield bonds.
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Where did the income go? A recession led high-quality yields lower in 2020, and fiscal and monetary support spurred a lower-quality rebound that kept yields pretty low across the board. But yield isn t everything. As Morningstar s director of personal finance Christine Benz and others have pointed out, you can also invest for total return and sell some of your appreciated mutual funds and stocks to pay some expenses in retirement. Certainly, it makes sense to be flexible rather than chase yield.
But to see how things shake out today, I looked at the 13 highest-yielding funds in the Morningstar 500 as of Jan. 25, 2021, though the table shows yields as of March 8. This is one of those Don t try this at home things. I select the M500 list mostly on Morningstar Analyst Ratings but also include prominent and up-and-coming funds that may be rated Neutral or not rated. So, it s a fairly safe place for this exercise. If you did this for
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