Somalia Key Message Update: Below-average gu harvest and other shocks lead to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes July 2021
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The impacts of two consecutive below-average rainfall seasons on crop and livestock production are driving high food assistance needs in Somalia, where Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to remain widespread through January 2022. Based on FSNAU’s preliminary field assessments, the gu cereal harvest in July/August is estimated to be at least 30-40 percent below the 1995-2020 average. Furthermore, a third season of crop and livestock production losses are anticipated during the October to December deyr rainfall season, based on long-term forecasts that La Niña and negative Indian Ocean Dipole conditions will result in below-average rainfall. Humanitarian partners reached approximately 14 percent of the national population with food assistance in June; however, food assistance plans remain unconfirmed for the r
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