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이재용 취업제한 논란에 박범계 무보수 여부 등 중요 -국민일보
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이재용 취업제한 논란에 박범계 무보수 여부 등 중요 -국민일보
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RENTA CON OPCION A COMPRA | Los Angeles
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by Tyler Durden
By Steve Englander, head global G10 FX research at Standard Chartered bank
Summary:
We see sampling issues and child-care concerns as the most likely drivers of the NFP weakness
We are skeptical of the work disincentives explanation as the number of UI benefit recipients and of long-term unemployed dropped sharply
Seasonality was normal, so this does not seem to have been a major issue
We doubt the Fed will change its stance, even if an abnormal May bounce offsets the April shortfall
Work disincentives likely a future issue, but not in April
There is a lot of discussion on the big forecast miss of April non-farm payrolls (NFP). The consensus was for around 1mn jobs, our forecast was 1.5mn and the outcome was 266,000 (Bloomberg even called it literally shocking data ). Against much commentary in recent days, we doubt that the generosity of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits played an important role in April, but we do not underestimate its future impact.
MacroBusiness
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at 2:20 pm on May 11, 2021 | 4 comments
Standard Chartered with the note. Recall that they were just about the most bullish in the market prior to the release:
Work disincentives likely a future issue, but not in April
There is a lot of discussion on the big forecast miss of April non-farm payrolls (NFP). The consensus was for around 1mn jobs, our forecast was 1.5mn and the outcome was 266,000. Against much commentary in recent days, we doubt that the generosity of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits played an important role in April, but we do not underestimate its future impact. We suspect sampling issues in the survey were the main source of the miss but find evidence that child-care issues played an important but secondary role. The run-up in average hourly earnings seems abrupt but is consistent with anecdotal reports of labor shortages.