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Resurgent pandemic brings new headwinds for the oil market

© PUNIT PARANJPE/AFP via Getty Images A slowing Indian economy is a new headwind for oil prices. The country is the world’s third-biggest oil market, importing more than $100bn of the fuel in 2019. Before Covid-19, world oil consumption was around 100 million barrels per day (mbpd). That figure tumbled by 8.7mbpd last year, according to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA). The IEA thinks global demand will recover by 5.7mbpd this year, says Robert Perkins of S&P Global. The agency has raised its forecasts because of strong rebounds in China and the US.  Oil prices have enjoyed a strong start to 2021, with Brent crude rising by about 27% so far to trade at $66 a barrel this week. That is thanks in large part to supply curbs agreed by the Opec+ cartel of producers, of which Saudi Arabia and Russia are the key members. 

Bloomberg: China is losing the soft war but could win the hard one

Cold War, Hard and Soft A cold war has hard and soft components, like an egg or the SAT. Last night the Oscars were a stark reminder the U.S. is winning the soft-power part of the war. The hard part could be a much different story. “Nomadland,” a very good, very depressing movie about premature retirees living in vans, won best picture. Its director, Chloé Zhao, a Chinese national, won best director. (Frances McDormand, a national treasure, won best actress for her part in the movie. Also, if you didn’t find the movie quite depressing enough, please read Jessica Bruder’s very good book.) 

Pandemic Triggers Worker Shortage At Indian Refiners

4 hours Pandemic Triggers Worker Shortage At Indian Refiners 5 hours Brazil Reports 6% Oil Output Decline In Q1 6 hours Tanker Collision Off Major Chinese Hub Causes Million Barrel Oil Spill 23 hours OPEC+ Concerned About India’s Oil Demand 1 day Nordic Oil Firm Sells World First Certified Carbon Neutral Oil 1 day Canada Fights To Save Line 5 From Shutdown 1 day Total Forced To Halt $20B Mozambique LNG Project After Militant Attacks 1 day Lawsuit Claims Petrobras Ordered Murder Of Shell Exec And His Wife In 2003 1 day Three Killed In Attack On Oil Tanker Off Syrian Coast 4 days New Court Verdict Imperils Dakota Access Pipeline Again

Oil Edges Lower Near $62 With Investors Assessing Demand Outlook

Oil Swings Near $62 as Investors Assess Near-Term Demand Outlook Bloomberg 1 hr ago Elizabeth Low (Bloomberg) Oil swung between gains and losses as investors assessed the outlook for demand ahead of a key OPEC+ meeting later this week. Futures in New York traded near $62 a barrel after advancing 1.2% on Friday, the most in more than a week. The U.S. and China are recovering strongly from the pandemic and there are some positive signs from Europe, but the market is facing headwinds from a virus flare-up in India. That could pose a problem for the OPEC+ alliance, which has agreed to start adding more supply from May.

German Cases Ease; Patients Die in Baghdad Blaze: Virus Update

Patients Perish in Baghdad Fire; U.S. to Aid India: Virus Update Bloomberg 10 mins ago Bloomberg News © Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg Healthcare workers wearing protective masks administer doses of the Johnson & Johnson Janssen Covid-19 vaccine to senior residents at San Rafael Commons in San Rafael, California. (Bloomberg) New Covid-19 cases and deaths eased in Germany as expanded virus restrictions and an accelerating vaccine program may be having an effect. In Switzerland, which has also struggled to roll out vaccines, about one third of the population has already contracted the virus. In Baghdad, scores of people were killed when a fire tore through a hospital treating patients including many with coronavirus, the Associated Press reported.

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