The head of global airline industry body IATA blames overly risk-averse governments for prolonging the COVID-19 crisis for the travel sector but expects the outlook to brighten in the second half of the year.
IATA blames risk-averse govts for prolonging travel crisis
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The head of global airline industry body IATA blamed overly risk-averse governments for prolonging the COVID-19 crisis for the travel sector but expects the outlook to brighten in the second half of the year.
IATA Director General Willie Walsh, the former boss of British Airways owner IAG, expects positive data on vaccine effectiveness to convince governments to start rolling back restrictions.
“There is some good evidence there to be optimistic that, going into the second half of this year, we will see a better environment that will allow more people to travel,” he said on Friday.
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This year, global passenger numbers can recover to 52 percent of pre-COVID-19 levels (2019), they predicted.
In 2022, global passenger numbers can recover to 88 percent of pre-COVID-19 levels and in 2023 global passenger numbers, might surpass pre-COVID-19 levels at 105 percent.
By 2030, global passenger numbers can grow to 5.6 billion, although that will still be 7 percent below the pre-COVID-19 forecast, with an estimated loss of 2-3 years of growth due to the pandemic.
However, beyond 2030, IATA expects air travel to slow down due to weaker demographics and a baseline assumption of limited market liberalization, giving average annual growth of 3.2 percent between 2019 and 2039.
IATA’s pre-COVID-19 growth forecast for this period was 3.8 percent.
President of Emirates, Sir Tim Clark, believes demand for air travel could come back at a ‘staggering rate’ by Q4 2021, if the vaccine programme beats the virus.
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The damage of the Covid-19 crisis will be felt for years to come, forecasts an international aviation body.
That said, its research indicates that people have retained their need and desire to travel.
To ensure that aviation can sustainably deliver its social and economic benefits, though, governments must step up support for more efficient operations.
The impact of the coronavirus pandemic and related lockdowns and travel bans have likely set back growth in air passenger numbers by two to three years, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
The airline body represents about 290 airlines comprising 82% of global air traffic.