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Subir Roy
Senior Economic Analyst
As the year progresses and there are signs of the second Covid wave abetting, there should be a pervasive upbeat mood. But that is not the case and the financial sector, which is left holding the baby, is preparing to face further headwinds.
The mood is not lifting for the following reasons. There is apprehension of a third wave and the unknown havoc that fresh virus mutants and variants may cause. Plus, even as global agencies and analysts are lowering growth forecasts, retail inflation is breaching the central bank’s comfort zone.
The inflationary pressure is the result of sharply rising international commodity prices, particularly oil, and domestic bottlenecks caused by partial lockdowns. Absolutely, the last straw is the delayed monsoon in northern India leading to a cut in the kharif sowing area. If agriculture, which has been the sole bright spot in the economy also falters, then India’s cup of sorrow will overflow.
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