4/04/2021 09:36:00 AM
CR Note: There is quite a bit of information (and charts) in this article by Matthew Graham at MortgageNewsDaily: Who s Lying About The Housing Market?. Here are a few excerpts on the impact of mortgage rates on home sales and house prices.
Click on graph for larger image.
The inventory situation may mean that prices remain more resilient in the current housing cycle despite the recent surge in interest rates. Even then, past examples of rate spikes have only had moderate impacts on housing.
Using the same home sales data from above, let s highlight previous rate spikes so we can see the impact.
• At 8:30 AM ET,
Employment Report for March. The consensus is for 565,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 6.0%.
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.
The current employment recession is by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and is currently about as bad as the worst of the Great Recession .
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Calculated Risk on
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$62.68
The 57.9% absolute occupancy was a 160.8% increase from the comparable, pandemic-affected week last year, but more importantly, represented more than 83% of occupancy regained from the 2019 benchmark. More than 21 million rooms were sold for the second week in a row, however, it was the first time in four weeks that the metric fell week over week, which is indicative of softening in the spring break demand that had boosted levels previously.
emphasis addedThe following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the
four week average.
Click on graph for larger image.
The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels prior to 2020).