4/01/2021 12:46:00 PM
On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for March. The consensus is for 565 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 6.0%.
Some analysts think this will be a very strong report with maybe 1 million jobs added. For example, from Merrill Lynch economists: We look for nonfarm payrolls to grow by a robust 1mn in March following a gain of 379k in February. Labor market indicators undoubtedly showed strong employment activity over the month. . The unemployment rate should drop to 5.9% from 6.2% reflecting the strong job gains.
• First, currently there are still
about 9.5 million fewer jobs than in February 2020 (before the pandemic).
Olsen tror renten vil dempe boligprisgaloppen: – Følger utviklingen nøye
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Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in February were at a
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,421,000. This is 10.3 percent below the revised January estimate of 1,584,000 and is 9.3 percent below the February 2020 rate of 1,567,000. Single-family housing starts in February were at a rate of 1,040,000; this is 8.5 percent below the revised January figure of 1,136,000. The February rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 372,000.
Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,682,000. This is 10.8 percent below the revised January rate of 1,886,000, but is 17.0 percent
above the February 2020 rate of 1,438,000. Single-family authorizations in February were at a rate of 1,143,000; this is 10.0 percent below the revised January figure of 1,270,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 495,000 in February.
Mortgage applications decreased 2.2 percent from one
week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage
Applications Survey for the week ending March 12, 2021.
. The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous
week and was 39 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
The seasonally adjusted Purchase
Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 3 percent
compared with the previous week and was
5 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
“Mortgage application activity was mixed last week, as the run-up in rates continues to reduce incentives
for potential refinance borrowers. The 30-year fixed rate increased to its highest level since June 2020,
3/17/2021 12:11:00 PM
Note1: Import traffic was heavy in February - ships were backed up waiting to unload in LA. some vessels are spending almost as much time at anchor as it takes to traverse the Pacific Ocean.
Note2: The expansion to the Panama Canal was completed in 2016 (As I noted a few years ago), and some of the traffic that used the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach is probably going through the canal. This might be impacting TEUs on the West Coast.
Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation s container port traffic.
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