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Demand-Driven Growth

this post authored by Marek Ignaszak and Petr Sedlacek To gauge the efficacy of policies aimed at spurring growth, we must first fully understand the sources of aggregate growth. This column argues that understanding the drivers of economic growth requires paying attention not only to productivity and R&D dynamics at the firm level, but also to changes in demand for firms’ products. The authors provide a new perspective on commonly used supply-side pro-growth policies and open the door to analysing demand-side policies such as public procurement or product market regulation, which have been present in the policy debate but have largely escaped academic circles.

The aftermath of sovereign debt crises | VOX, CEPR Policy Portal

Rui Esteves, Seán Kenny, Jason Lennard 20 July 2021 There is little consensus on the macroeconomic impacts of sovereign debt crises, despite the regularity of such events. This column quantifies the aggregate costs of defaults using a narrative approach on a large panel of 50 sovereigns between 1870 and 2010. It estimates significant and persistent negative effects of debt crises starting at 1.6% of GDP and peaking at 3.3%, before reverting to trend five years later. In addition, underlying causes matter. Defaults driven by aggregate demand shocks result in short-term contractions, whereas aggregate supply shocks lead to larger, more persistent losses.  Nicola Gennaioli, Alberto Martin, Stefano Rossi

Carbon pricing and relocation: Evidence from Dutch industry

Patrick Bolton, Marcin Kacperczyk Pricing carbon is a cost-effective instrument to achieve emission reduction targets. The introduction of a substantial tax on industrial carbon emissions could be an important part of future climate policy. Tax rate proposals of €100 or €200 per tonne of CO 2e in 2030 on top of the carbon price in the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) are not uncommon. However, implementing a national carbon tax has proven to be politically difficult (Stiglitz 2019, Dolphin et al. 2020). A key concern is that such a tax may hurt domestic industrial activity. Another concern is carbon leakage – i.e. the emission reduction achieved domestically could (partly) be offset by an increase in carbon emissions in foreign countries with more favorable tax regimes.

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