Walt Breitinger
Opinions are solely those of the writers. Walt Breitinger is a commodity futures broker with Paragon Investments in Silver Lake
Futures Flying-Inflation Returning?
Last week virtually everything went up–all commodities (agricultural and financial), real estate, wages, stock market, bonds, foreign currencies, lumber, sugar, even cryptocurrencies.
The Labor Department released the Consumer Price Index on Tuesday, which showed the biggest 12-month price jump since August of 2018. Much of that increase was due to gasoline prices, while other increases also seemed to be related to economic recovery and to confidence the pandemic will finally be subsiding.
Deficit spending, low-interest rates, and the “dovish” attitude of our Federal Reserve have all contributed to expectations prices will rise. Low U.S. interest rates add to a weaker U.S. dollar which, in turn, raises the cost of everything denominated in the Greenback. Cattle futures were a rare exception. Th
Freezing Commodities
Virtually every sector of agriculture, energy, and many financial markets were impacted or even demolished by an arctic blast that ran through the southwest. Temperatures throughout the region were as much as 35 degrees below average for several days.
Fuels: The cold snap in Houston, our “capital of energy,” wreaked havoc on natural gas and crude production. Freezing pipelines and ground transit came screeching to a halt and hampered transportation of those fuels. Demand for refined products, such as gasoline, propane, diesel, and heating oil surged just as availability declined. Prices were chased higher as emergency needs spurred panic buying. Heating oil for March delivery traded at $1.83 per gallon on midday Friday, up about 3 ¢ cents from last week.
My Virus Valentine
You might not think of plants growing in distant lands when you’re wooing your Valentine, but farmers are likely thinking of you. The cacao tree is a robust crop for the Ivory Coast and Ghana. So strong that together, they produce about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa. And we like cocoa: it’s a necessary ingredient for one of American’s favorite sweets. Chocolate, much like coffee, tends to be produced by developing countries and consumed by wealthier ones. Both the Ivory Coast and Ghana raised their prices near the end of last year to address poverty among farmers. Chocolate, made from cocoa, sugar, and sometimes milk, is bought more in February than most other months.