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Ask the right questions about early yield results

By Jon Scheve, Superior Feed Ingredients, LLCThe market is trying to determine what the upcoming harvest yields will be. Early reports where harvest has started south of I-80 are positive. Generally, areas that received ample precipitation are experiencing better than average yields. However, there were also many pockets of dry weather too, so overall yields are unclear right now. In Illinois specifically, expected yields are varying more than previously estimated.

Has the corn market established $5 as this season s price floor?

Has the corn market established $5 as this season s price floor?
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Massive spreads between posted bids and prices

By Jon Scheve, Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC Corn futures continue to trend sideways, as the market waits for the Aug. 12 USDA yield estimate. This week saw the first fields of the 2021 corn harvest begin in several southern states.  As a result of harvest beginning in the South basis values will come under pressure. Old crop corn basis levels have been dropping over the last few weeks, but many basis bids throughout the U.S. still hover around +60 to +70. During the middle of harvest most of these same locations will likely be bidding -40 to -30. This means there will likely be a $1 per bushel decrease in basis values between now and the end of September regardless of what futures prices do. While this drop is likely slow for the next week or two it will begin to drop rapidly as the harvest pushes northward.

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