ICRA said that if the vaccine coverage is accelerated following the re-centralised procurement policy, then the GDP growth could be as high as 9.5 per cent, with a widening upside in Q3 and Q4 of FY22
Barclays said the economic costs of the recent surge in cases are rising rapidly, and added that while "reasonably stable", the economy experienced a sharp decline in activity in May as is evident in high frequency data.
Gene Fang of Moody s explains the rationale behind lowering of India GDP forecast
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Last Updated: May 12, 2021, 11:04 AM IST
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Synopsis This being the second such shock in a year, it could be an added burden for consumers and small businesses. We therefore expect that the recovery, when it begins, will be somewhat muted compared to what we had previously expected, he says.
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Gene Fang, Associate Managing Director, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody s Investors Services (Photo: Moody s).
Gene Fang, Moody s Investors Services, says he would like to see some key economic metrics beginning to stabilise before effecting a reset in India s growth forecast. Edited excerpts:
Synopsis
Further, it said the gross domestic product (GDP) of South Asia is expected to rebound to 9.5 % this year, following a contraction of 6 % in 2020, before moderating to 6.6 % next year (2022), it said.
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The Indian economy is projected to grow at 11 % in the current financial year amid the strong vaccine drive, said ADB on Wednesday, while cautioning that the recent surge in COVID cases may put the country s economic recovery at risk . India s economy is expected to grow 11 % in fiscal year (FY) 2021, which ends on March 31, 2022, amid a strong vaccine drive, ADB said in its flagship Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2021 released on Wednesday.