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Jeff J Mitchell / Getty Images / WIRED The Holy Grail of seismology is earthquake prediction. Not forecasting, which gives a probability of a significant quake happening in an area within a period of years or decades, but actually predicting exactly when and where a major quake itself will strike, and what magnitude it will be. Seismologists will unequivocally tell you that anyone claiming they can predict future earthquakes are false prophets. But that’s not to say that earthquake prediction is impossible. Scientists have invested a tremendous amount in achieving this hallowed goal, it s just that so far they’ve come up short.

San francisco bayUnited statesCalifornia institute of technologyNew mexicoLos alamos national laboratoryDouglas adamsPaul johnsonKasey aderholdJeffj mitchell gettyZachary rossLaura pyrak noltePurdue universityProceedings of the national academy sciencesUs geologicalJeffj mitchellGetty images